Natural selection could determine whether Acropora corals persist under expected climate change.

Adopted by the 196 Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) last December, and signed by 175 countries on 22 April 2016, the Paris Agreement provides guidelines for global efforts in addressing climate change, and establishes a five-year review cycle for detailedwork programs of cutting emissions, differentiation between countries as to their responsibilities for action, and financing for poor countries to deal with rising temperatures. ‘Governments have ushered in a new era of global cooperation on climate change—one of the most complex issues ever to confront humanity. What was once unthinkable is now unstoppable. For the first time, every country in the world has pledged to curb their emissions, strengthen resilience, and act internationally and domestically to tackle climate change’, acclaimed UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. In a nutshell, Paris Agreement sets a target of holding the increase in the global average temperature towell below 2◦Cprior to 2100 and pursuing the efforts to limit the temperature increase to1.5◦C.The landmarkAgreementhas 29 articles, includingmitigation, adaptation, loss and damage, finance, technology development and transfer, capacity building, transparency of action and support, and global stocktake, which pose many new global opportunities and challenges for climate research and services. Global warming has caused ice melting in polar regions and the northern hemisphere and elevation of sea level, extreme weather and climate events such as tropical cyclone and ENSO, acceleration of global water cycle, as well as ocean acidification and hypoxia. Since the earth’s climate system is highly non-linear, even if the global temperature increase could be limited to 1.5◦C via emission reduction, risks and vulnerability may remain that could result in more frequent extreme weather events, regime shifts of non-equilibrium ecosystem, and persistent rise of global and regional sea level. Therefore, in response to the Agreement, scientific community should build up a massive research effort on the mechanisms and adaptation of climate changes, including reliable assessment of climate changes and their impacts in global and regional scales, especially decadal predication that could provide scientific evidence in support of the reduction of carbon emission. While the Agreement represents a monumental step in the international efforts in controlling global warming, many difficult problems remain to be solved. Most notably, it is unclear what amount of reduction in greenhouse gas emission is required to control the global warming below 2◦C by 2100. Multi-components of the earth’s climate system and multiscale spatial-temporal variations call for interdisciplinary research through collaboration and innovation, in order to improve the prediction of decadal and longer timescale climate changes. To achieve this goal, we need to build global comprehensive observational networks, reliable earth system models as well as develop more effective prediction-assessment approaches. In this regard, China’s investment still lags behind developed countries, and increased investment in fundamental research on the mitigation and adaptation strategies of climate changes are called for. The good news is that the government has recently approved the ‘Earth System Simulator’ project and is planning for the establishment of comprehensive ocean observation systemover theChina’s 13th ‘Five-Year Plan’ as well. In terms of social economic development, ambition of the Agreement in emission reductions could be achieved by restructuring the world’s energy usage from fossil fuels to renewables, which influences geopolitics and world economy as well as will enhance the innovation-driven development in renewable energy. Key renewable marine energies, such as tidal wave energy, ocean thermal energy, and sea-water chemical energy, together with solar and wind energy, will contribute larger shares of energy sources and help to reduce carbon emission. With increasing use of marine energy, we can expect technological advances in equipment innovation andmanufacturing, newmaterials, and ocean engineering, all of which benefit economy, promote upgrade and transformation of industries as ‘Marine Energy Plus’. The Paris Agreement will undoubtedly bring opportunity for a drastic restructuring of China’s energy industry, and we should bemaking early preparation tomeet this upcoming adjustment. In short, the Paris Agreement will promote climate research, industrial structural adjustment, and economic social development, in spite of potential difficulties in its implementation and the deficiency in current technologies

ABSTRACTThis paper investigates strategies that could achieve an 80% reduction in transportation emissions from current levels by 2050 in the City of Philadelphia. The baseline daily lifecycle emissions generated by road transportation in the Greater Philadelphia Region in 2012 were quantified using trip information from the 2012 Household Travel Survey (HTS). Emissions were projected to the year 2050 accounting for population growth and trends in vehicle technology for both the Greater Philadelphia Region and the City of Philadelphia. The impacts of vehicle technology and shifts in travel modes on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2050 were quantified using a scenario approach. The analysis of 12 different scenarios suggests that 80% reduction in emissions is technically feasible through a combination of active transportation, cleaner fuels for public transit vehicles, and a significant market penetration of battery-electric vehicles. The additional electricity demand associated with greater use of electric vehicles could amount to 10.8 TWh/year. The use of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) shows promising results due to high reductions in GHG emissions at a potentially manageable cost.

With the global challenge of climate change, it becomes crucial to understand the factors that can guide carbon intensive companies to comply with environmental regulations through significant reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Using the natural-resource-based view, the argument in this paper is that focusing on sustainability-driven resources by companies is a way to meet environmental compliance and reduce GHG emissions while gaining differential competitive benefits. A specific analysis on Alberta case has discussed large GHG emitters’ environmental compliance mechanisms in the context of their sustainability resources. The aim is examining if large GHG emitters in Alberta related to corporations having sustainability resources are complying with the Specified Gas Emitters Regulation (SGER) reduction requirement through cleaner-production driven internal mechanisms. The paper examines the existence of the sustainability resources in the reporting companies related to large GHG emitters responsible for 86% of total GHG reported by facilities with emissions above the threshold of 100 kilotonnes of GHG per year under SGER in Alberta. Corporations are found not using their sustainability resource potential to achieve internal reductions in GHG emissions throughout their facilities. Thus, some recommendations are presented for Alberta case as well as for environmental regulations in other jurisdictions that can potentially help policy makers improve their climate change regulations and achieve their global targets and enable companies to gain competitive advantage while meeting GHG reduction compliance.

By the middle of the next century, the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere will be twice preindustrial values, if current trends continue. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has concluded that the balance of evidence is that Earth's climate will warm as a result, although much uncertainty remains, particularly about local and regional effects. The effects of climate change go well beyond increases in temperature. Floods and droughts could become more common and severe. Sea levels are expected to rise by around 50 centimeters (give or take a factor of 2) over the next century. In the longer term, climate change could interfere with the Gulf Stream, which greatly warms the climate of northern Europe. Because of the long residence time of CO2 in the atmosphere, it takes around 100 years for a reduction in emissions to have an effect. The oceans' high heat capacity provides additional inertia. As heat diffuses slowly to the deeper oceans, it will cause further expansion, so even if there were no further change in climate (which would require a 60 decrease in CO2 emissions below current levels), sea levels would continue to rise for hundreds of years. As when turning a large ship, there are long lags between actions aimed at leveling off CO2 concentrations and actual stabilization of those concentrations. This is a strong argument for early action. The economic debate about reducing greenhouse gases tends to be split into two groups. One concludes that strong and early action is essential lest we (in President Clinton's words) burden our children with our failure to act. The other group is concerned that such action will be expensive, costing jobs and adversely affecting economic competitiveness. The naysayers' arguments deserve attention. But experience with environmental action in other areas, such as reducing sulfur emissions, chlorofluorocarbons, and lead in gasoline, suggests that abatement costs will turn out to be lower than initially feared. Several recent studies, including one by the U.S. Department of Energy, have suggested that significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are technically possible and can be made economically feasible, in large part by increasing the use of energy-efficient technologies. Many of these actions will bring other benefits, including increased industrial efficiency and thence competitiveness, and environmental gains such as improved air quality. The task of reducing emissions falls very broadly on all sectors of society. For example, the United Kingdom's emissions result about evenly from road transport (22), domestic uses (27), and industry (28); a miscellany of other categories (including other transport and heating and other energy use in shops and offices) makes up the remaining 23. The United Kingdom will hold a national consultation on a climate change program next year. The main features are likely to include more efficient production and use of energy in the main sectors of the economy, further drives to develop combined heat and power schemes and generate more electricity from renewable sources, and measures to create a more sustainable transport system. The United Kingdom already has a policy to increase taxation on road transport fuel at 6 above the rate of inflation each year. Much of the difference between the negotiating positions of the United States and the European Union (EU) derives from the United States' feeling that it will be harder for it to reach ambitious targets. This is largely because the United States is so far behind in addressing the problem of climate change; its emissions are projected to be around 13 higher in 2000 than in 1990. Per capita carbon emissions in the United States are double the EU average. We also need to think long. Whatever emissions target for 2010 is agreed upon at the third Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in Kyoto, Japan, on 1 through 10 December must only be a first step. Decisions that are effective in the short term must not hinder our options for meeting future reduction targets. The actions needed to address climate change will be impossible to accomplish unless the public is persuaded of the need for them. This is hard, because although the truly serious consequences lie decades in the future, the magnitude of tomorrow's problems depends crucially on today's actions. Our institutions are not well adapted to handling issues such as climate change, on which our long-term fate hinges.

The aim of this study was to explore the association between travel mode choice and individual sociodemographic characteristics among urban city dwellers, as the selection of daily travel modes is influenced by several factors. The study collected 1,290 short daily trips data from 415 respondents living in Klang Valley using a random sampling technique. Logit regression models were utilized to identify the impact of sociodemographic traits on travel mode choices. Men, low education levels, students, and households without children and do not own private vehicles are more likely to choose active transportation. Besides, the study examines the potential for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction. Based on Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), 142 kgCO2e or 108 kgCO2e/km of GHG were released by automobiles from the collected travel trip data. The result shows that active transport could potentially achieve 14.52% GHG emission reduction by stated preference and nearly 17% GHG emission reduction by criteria fulfillment. These findings could provide valuable information for developing practical planning policies aimed at reducing GHG emissions from the road transport sector.

The future evolution of sea surface temperature (SST) extremes is of great concern, not only for the health of marine ecosystems and sustainability of commercial fisheries, but also for precipitation extremes fueled by moisture evaporated from the ocean. This study examines the projected influence of anthropogenic climate change on the intensity and duration of monthly SST extremes, hereafter termed marine heat waves (MHWs) and marine cold waves (MCWs), based on initial-condition large ensembles with seven Earth system models. The large number of simulations (30–100) with each model allows for robust quantification of future changes in both the mean state and variability in each model. In general, models indicate that future changes in variability will cause MHW and MCW events to intensify in the northern extratropics and weaken in the tropics and Southern Ocean, and to shorten in duration in many areas. These changes are generally symmetric between MHWs and MCWs, except for the longitude of duration change in the tropical Pacific and sign of duration change in the Arctic. Projected changes in ENSO account for a large fraction of the variability-induced changes in MHW and MCW characteristics in each model and are responsible for much of the intermodel spread as a result of differences in future ENSO behavior. The variability-related changes in MHW and MCW characteristics noted above are superimposed upon large mean-state changes. Indeed, their contribution to the total change in SST during MHW and MCW events is generally <10% except in polar regions where they contribute upward of 50%.

ABSTRACTThis paper examines the influence of firms’ reductions of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on firm value, measured by Tobin's q. If the stockholders/investors regard the reduction of GHG emissions as a form of intangible value, the reduction of GHG emissions will enhance firm value. To prove this relation more precisely, this paper analyzes not only the effect of the reduction of GHG emissions on firm value but also that of the market discipline imposed by the stockholders/investors in terms of the reduction of GHG emissions. Using data on 641 Japanese manufacturing firms in the period 2006–2008, the random effect instrumental variable estimate supports the view that firms with strong market discipline imposed by stockholders/investors are more likely to reduce GHG emissions and, consequently, firms that reduce more GHG emissions are more likely to enhance firm value. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.

Marine heatwaves are hazardous events particularly threatful to the ocean ecosystem. Observations show that their frequency and intensity are increasing in response to global warming. Evaluation of future marine heatwaves’ characteristics were primarily made using transient states of the Earth system. In this context, metrics were assessed at transient global warming levels (TWL), following the Paris Agreement goal to limit global warming well below 2.0°C or even 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. However, assessment at TWL cannot be proxies for global warming stabilization storylines which require net-zero emission. In addition, current trends in global warming suggest that the Paris Agreement limits will be exceeded. Here, we analyse marine heatwaves’ characteristics at 2.0 and 4.0°C stabilized global warming levels (SWL) under net-zero and overshoot scenarios. For that, we run long term simulations following the TipMIP protocol and using the CNRM-ESM2-2 model. A positive 0.2°C.decade-1 ramp-up allows to reach the target temperatures where 300-years net-zero runs are branched. Overshoots are carried out, after 50-years of stabilization, using a symmetrical negative ramp-down. These results enable (i) to understand the global and regional evolution under net-zero and (ii) to evaluate possible hysteresis effects undergone with overshoots and net-zero pathways. In broader perspective, this work focuses on the implications for marine heatwaves’ key metrics as their consequent impacts could differ according to the pathway followed.

The protection of global public goods is one of the most pressing challenges we are facing today. The mitigation of climate change is the most prominent example. In the next decades, global warming is feared to cause rising sea levels, melting ice and snow, increasing precipitation, extreme weather events, and widespread coastal flooding. By now, it has been almost universally recognized that these climate changes are at least influenced by human action. Since the early 1990s, the international community has, in principle, recognized this challenge. In 1992, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was concluded at the end of the Rio summit. It has been ratified by 196 parties. While there are only two international treaties, the Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer and the corresponding Montreal Protocol, which have more ratifications than the UNFCCC, the effectiveness of the Framework Convention has been limited. In the Kyoto Protocol, which was adopted in 1997 and entered into force in 2002, the states agreed for the first time on concrete targets for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Nevertheless, the Kyoto obligations have often been criticized as too modest. But even these modest targets have failed to prevent the significant increase in greenhouse gas emissions during this century. Major actors, such as the United States, have not ratified the Kyoto Protocol, while other states have failed to comply with their reduction goals. Therefore, progress in establishing a cooperative framework for tackling climate change can, at best, be described as very slow. Some authors have suggested that treaty mechanisms might not be the optimal instrument for climate regulation, as they involve high decision-making costs. Instead, they propose customary international law as an alternative, which might, due to its flexibility, be better suited to the achieve the regulatory goals. This chapter aims to examine this hypothesis. It explores the potential of customary international law to contribute to the protection of global public goods. The analysis proceeds in the three steps. First, it will have a closer look at the concept of public goods and common pool resources. Economic theory predicts that public goods are usually underprovided and common pool resources overexploited. Experimental evidence confirms the general trend, even though the level of contributions is higher than economic theory predicts.

Climate-adaptive crop distribution can feed food demand, improve water scarcity, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions

Possibilities and limitations of life cycle assessment (LCA) in the development of waste utilization systems – Applied examples for a region in Northern Germany

The dairy Carbon Offset Scenario Tool (COST) was developed to explore the influence of various abatement strategies on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for Australian dairy farms. COST is a static spreadsheet-based tool that uses Australian GHG inventory methodologies, algorithms and emission factors to estimate carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide emissions of a dairy farm system. One of the key differences between COST and other inventory-based dairy GHG emissions calculators is the ability to explore the effect of reducing total farm emissions on farm income, assuming the strategy was compliant with Kyoto rules for carbon offsets. COST provides ten abatement strategies across the four broad theme areas of diet manipulation, herd and breeding management, feedbase management and waste management. Each abatement strategy contains four sections; two sections for data entry (baseline farm data specific to the strategy explored and strategy-specific variables) and two sections for results (milk production results and GHG/economic-related results). Key sensitive variables for each strategy, identified from prior research, and prices for milk production and carbon offsets are adjusted through up/down buttons, which allows users to quickly explore the impact of these variables on farm emissions and profitability. For example, if the cost to implement an abatement strategy is doubled, what carbon offset income would be required to negate this additional cost? Results are presented as changes in carbon offset income, strategy implementation cost, additional milk production income and net farm income on a per annum and on a per GHG emissions intensity of milk production basis. COST currently contains a comprehensive range of strategies for GHG abatement, although some strategies are still in development. As new technologies or farm management practices leading to a reduction in GHG emission become available, these too will be incorporated into COST. To date, two dairy-specific abatement methodologies have been legislated as part of Australia’s commitment to reducing on-farm GHG emissions through it’s the carbon offset scheme, the Carbon Farming Initiative (CFI) and are incorporated into COST. These are the ‘Destruction of methane generated from dairy manure in covered anaerobic ponds’ and the ‘Methodology for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in milking cows through feeding dietary additives’. As an example, we explored the mitigation option Replace supplements with a source of dietary fats (reflecting the second above-mentioned CFI legislated abatement strategy) as feeding a diet higher in dietary fats has been shown to reduce enteric methane emissions per unit of feed intake. A 400 milking herd was fed a baseline diet of 2.6% dietary fat. By replacing grain with hominy meal, at a rate of 5.0 kg dry matter/ cow per day for 90 days during the 3 summer months, the summer diet fat concentration was increased to 6.4%. Enteric methane emissions were reduced by 40 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents (t CO 2 e) per annum for the farm. Waste methane and nitrous oxide emissions were also reduced by 0.5 and 1.6 t CO 2 e/annum, respectively. However, as reductions from these two sources of GHG emissions do not qualify for payment with this CFI methodology, their reduction could not be included as an offset income. At a carbon price of $20/ t CO 2 e, the reduction in enteric methane emissions was valued at $800/farm. The implementation cost of replacing grain with hominy was valued at $18,000/farm due to the hominy meal costing an additional $100/t dry matter compared to the grain. However, the additional milk production achieved due to the higher energy concentration of the diet resulted in an additional 70,200 litres and based on a summer milk price of $0.38/ litre, this equated to an additional income from milk valued at $26,676/farm. The overall result was a net increase in farm profit of $9,476/farm when paid on a reduction in total GHG emissions. COST can quickly allow users to ascertain the level of GHG emission reduction possible with various mitigation options and explore the sensitivity of key variables on GHG emissions and farm profitability.

Multi-objective optimisation of wastewater treatment plant control to reduce greenhouse gas emissions

Open image in new window This chapter shows how the Global Environment Facility (GEF) has utilized public funds to close the global energy efficiency gap. It provides an analysis of the cost-effectiveness of the 49 completed energy efficiency projects and compares levels of mobilized co-finance by sub-area; the length of project preparation period by sub-area, implementing Agency, and country; and the cost of GHG mitigation. A list of these 49 projects is presented in the appendix. On average, one dollar of GEF investment in energy efficiency was matched with approximately 8.2 dollars of co-finance. Heating projects generated the highest co-finance ratio. Appliances and equipment projects achieved the lowest unit abatement costs: US$0.24 per metric ton of direct greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions (In this book, GHG emissions reductions refers to direct emissions reductions if they are not specifically indicated as “indirect emissions reductions”) with GEF resources, and US$0.96 per metric ton with total funds (GEF resources and co-finance). The unit abatement cost for all 49 projects, which collectively mitigated approximately 600 million metric tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent (MMTCO2e) emissions, was approximately US$0.53 per metric ton with GEF funds and US$4.87 per metric ton with total funds. Six of the 10 sub-areas had below-average preparation period lengths. The average time used for preparation was approximately 4 months less than that estimated in the project preparation guidelines, signifying efficient project preparation. Both tangible and intangible technological investments can significantly mitigate GHG emissions if the investments are appropriate. Tangible investments can lead to visible or measurable GHG emissions reductions, and intangible investments are essential to completing market transformations for energy efficient technologies. Tangible investments in the 49 analyzed projects realized not only hardware acquisition, but also the transfer of 49 technology patents, the training of more than 1.3 million people, and the creation of 12 energy efficiency standards and codes, 21 financial instruments, and 29 market-based mechanisms for energy efficiency development.

Extreme weather events have been demonstrated to be increasing in frequency and intensity across the globe and are anticipated to increase further with projected changes in climate. Solar climate intervention strategies, specifically stratospheric aerosol injections (SAI), have the potential to minimise some of the impacts of a changing climate while more robust reductions in greenhouse gas emissions take effect. However, to date little attention has been paid to the possible responses of extreme weather and climate events under climate intervention scenarios. We present an analysis of 16 extreme surface temperature and precipitation indices, and associated vegetation responses, applied to the Geoengineering Large Ensemble (GLENS). GLENS is an ensemble of simulations performed with the Community Earth System Model (CESM1) where SAI is simulated to offset the warming produced by a high emission scenario throughout the 21st century, maintaining surface temperatures at 2020 levels. GLENS is generally successful at maintaining global mean temperature near 2020 levels, however it does not completely offset some of the projected warming in northern latitudes. Some regions are also projected to cool substantially in comparison to the present day, with the greatest decreases in daytime temperatures. The differential warming/cooling also translates to fewer very hot days but more very hot nights during the summer, and fewer very cold days or nights compared to the current day. Extreme precipitation patterns, for the most part, are projected to reduce in intensity in areas that are wet in the current climate and increase in intensity in dry areas. We also find that the distribution of daily precipitation becomes more consistent with more days with light rain, and fewer very intense events than occur currently. In many regions there is a reduction in the persistence of long dry and wet spells compared to present day. However, asymmetry in the night and day temperatures, together with changes in cloud cover and vegetative responses could exacerbate drying in regions that are already sensitive to drought. Overall, our results suggest that while SAI may ameliorate some of the extreme weather hazards produced by global warming, it would also present some significant differences in the distribution of climate extremes compared to the present day.