Optimizing asphalt mix design through predicting effective asphalt content and absorbed asphalt content using machine learning

Machine learning (ML) models provide more choices to patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) to more properly manage blood glucose (BG) levels. However, because of numerous types of ML algorithms, choosing an appropriate model is vitally important. In a systematic review and network meta-analysis, this study aimed to comprehensively assess the performance of ML models in predicting BG levels. In addition, we assessed ML models used to detect and predict adverse BG (hypoglycemia) events by calculating pooled estimates of sensitivity and specificity. PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Explore databases were systematically searched for studies on predicting BG levels and predicting or detecting adverse BG events using ML models, from inception to November 2022. Studies that assessed the performance of different ML models in predicting or detecting BG levels or adverse BG events of patients with DM were included. Studies with no derivation or performance metrics of ML models were excluded. The Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies tool was applied to assess the quality of included studies. Primary outcomes were the relative ranking of ML models for predicting BG levels in different prediction horizons (PHs) and pooled estimates of the sensitivity and specificity of ML models in detecting or predicting adverse BG events. In total, 46 eligible studies were included for meta-analysis. Regarding ML models for predicting BG levels, the means of the absolute root mean square error (RMSE) in a PH of 15, 30, 45, and 60 minutes were 18.88 (SD 19.71), 21.40 (SD 12.56), 21.27 (SD 5.17), and 30.01 (SD 7.23) mg/dL, respectively. The neural network model (NNM) showed the highest relative performance in different PHs. Furthermore, the pooled estimates of the positive likelihood ratio and the negative likelihood ratio of ML models were 8.3 (95% CI 5.7-12.0) and 0.31 (95% CI 0.22-0.44), respectively, for predicting hypoglycemia and 2.4 (95% CI 1.6-3.7) and 0.37 (95% CI 0.29-0.46), respectively, for detecting hypoglycemia. Statistically significant high heterogeneity was detected in all subgroups, with different sources of heterogeneity. For predicting precise BG levels, the RMSE increases with a rise in the PH, and the NNM shows the highest relative performance among all the ML models. Meanwhile, current ML models have sufficient ability to predict adverse BG events, while their ability to detect adverse BG events needs to be enhanced. PROSPERO CRD42022375250; https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=375250.

Understanding the Performance of Machine Learning Models to Predict Credit Default: A Novel Approach for Supervisory Evaluation

Machine Learning Models in the Prediction of One-Year Mortality in Patients With Advanced Hepatocellular Cancer on Immunotherapy

This research explores the optimization of mechanical properties and predictive modeling of polylactic acid (PLA) reinforced with boron nitride nanoplatelets (BNNPs) using data-driven machine learning (ML) models. PLA-BNNP composites were fabricated through injection molding, with a focus on how key processing parameters influence their mechanical performance. A Taguchi L27 orthogonal array was applied to assess the effects of BNNP composition (0.02 wt.% and 0.04 wt.%), injection temperature (135–155 °C), injection speed (50–70 mm/s), and pressure (30–50 bar) on properties such as tensile strength, Young’s modulus, and hardness. The results indicated that a 0.04 wt.% BNNP loading improved tensile strength, Young’s modulus, and hardness by 18.6%, 32.7%, and 20.5%, respectively, compared to pure PLA. Taguchi analysis highlighted that higher BNNP concentrations, along with optimal injection temperatures, improved all mechanical properties, although excessive temperatures compromised tensile strength and modulus, while enhancing hardness. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) revealed that injection temperature was the dominant factor for tensile strength (68.88%) and Young’s modulus (86.39%), while BNNP composition played a more significant role in influencing hardness (78.83%). Predictive models were built using machine learning (ML) models such as Random Forest Regression (RFR), Gradient Boosting Regression (GBR), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). Among the ML models, XGBoost demonstrated the highest predictive accuracy, achieving R2 values above 98% for tensile strength, 92–93% for Young’s modulus, and 96% for hardness, with low error metrics i.e., Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). These findings underscore the potential of using BNNP reinforcement and machine learning-driven property prediction to enhance PLA nanocomposites’ mechanical performance, making them viable for applications in lightweight packaging, biomedical implants, consumer electronics, and automotive components, offering sustainable alternatives to petroleum-based plastics.

This paper presents a data-driven approach to determine the load and flexural capacities of reinforced concrete (RC) beams strengthened with fabric reinforced cementitious matrix (FRCM) composites in flexure. A total of seven machine learning (ML) models such as kernel ridge regression, K-nearest neighbors, support vector regression, classification and regression trees, random forest, gradient boosted trees, and extreme gradient boosting (xgBoost) are evaluated to propose the best predictive model for FRCM-strengthened beams. Beam geometry, internal steel reinforcement area, FRCM reinforcement area, and mechanical characteristics of concrete, steel, and FRCM are the main input parameters included in the database. Among the studied ML models, the xgBoost model is the most accurate model with the highest coefficient of determination (R2=99.3%) and least root mean square (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). A comparative study of the performance of the proposed and existing analytical models revealed the superior predictive capability and robustness of the proposed model. The predicted flexural and load capacities of the beams based on the existing analytical models are highly scattered and either over-conservative or unsafe. A unified SHapley Additive exPlanations approach is employed to explain the output of the best ML model and identify the most significant input features and interactions that influence the capacity of FRCM-strengthened RC beams in flexure. Furthermore, a reliability analysis is performed to calibrate the resistance reduction factor (ϕ) to achieve a specified target reliability index (βT=3.5).

We previously developed machine learning (ML) models for predicting cycloplegic spherical equivalent refraction (SER) and myopia using non-cycloplegic data and following a standardized protocol (cycloplegia with 0.5% tropicamide and biometry using NIDEK A-scan), but the models’ performance may not be generalizable to other settings. This study evaluated the performance of ML models in an independent cohort using a different cycloplegic agent and biometer. Chinese students (N = 614) aged 8–13 years underwent autorefraction before and after cycloplegia with 0.5% tropicamide (n = 505) or 1% cyclopentolate (n = 109). Biometric measures were obtained using an IOLMaster 700 (n = 207) or Optical Biometer SW-9000 (n = 407). ML models were evaluated using R2, mean absolute error (MAE), sensitivity, specificity, and area under the ROC curve (AUC). The XGBoost model predicted cycloplegic SER very well (R2 = 0.95, MAE (SD) = 0.32 (0.30) D). Both ML models predicted myopia well (random forest: AUC 0.99, sensitivity 93.7%, specificity 96.4%; XGBoost: sensitivity 90.1%, specificity 96.8%) and accurately predicted the myopia rate (observed 62.9%; random forest: 60.6%; XGBoost: 58.8%) despite heterogeneous cycloplegia and biometry factors. In this independent cohort of students, XGBoost and random forest performed very well for predicting cycloplegic SER and myopia status using non-cycloplegic data. This external validation study demonstrated that ML may provide a useful tool for estimating cycloplegic SER and myopia prevalence with heterogeneous clinical parameters, and study in additional populations is warranted.

Performance evaluation of machine learning techniques in predicting cumulative absolute velocity

The sea surface temperature (SST) is an environmental indicator closely related to climate, weather, and atmospheric events worldwide. Its forecasting is essential for supporting the decision of governments and environmental organizations. Literature has shown that single machine learning (ML) models are generally more accurate than traditional statistical models for SST time series modeling. However, the parameters tuning of these ML models is a challenging task, mainly when complex phenomena, such as SST forecasting, are addressed. Issues related to misspecification, overfitting, or underfitting of the ML models can lead to underperforming forecasts. This work proposes using hybrid systems (HS) that combine (ML) models using residual forecasting as an alternative to enhance the performance of SST forecasting. In this context, two types of combinations are evaluated using two ML models: support vector regression (SVR) and long short-term memory (LSTM). The experimental evaluation was performed on three datasets from different regions of the Atlantic Ocean using three well-known measures: mean square error (MSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean absolute error (MAE). The best HS based on SVR improved the MSE value for each analyzed series by 82.26%, 98.93%, and 65.03% compared to its respective single model. The HS employing the LSTM improved 92.15%, 98.69%, and 32.41% concerning the single LSTM model. Compared to literature approaches, at least one version of HS attained higher accuracy than statistical and ML models in all study cases. In particular, the nonlinear combination of the ML models obtained the best performance among the proposed HS versions.

Accurate wind speed forecasting is essential for daily activities and socio‐economic production. This study employs an explainable machine learning (ML) model to correct wind speed forecasts from a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model over weather stations across lead times of 1–24 hr in Zhejiang Province, China. Eleven meteorological variables derived from the NWP model are used as predictors. The results demonstrate that ML model substantially improves the original NWP forecasts, reducing the root mean square error of approximately 20%–40% at most stations and about 10% at certain coastal stations. The corrected forecasts also consistently achieve higher Kling‐Gupta Efficiency scores and Forecast Accuracy across all lead times. To enhance model interpretability, we apply Split Count and SHapley Additive exPlanation analyses. The results indicate that the friction velocity (UST) is the most influential predictor and reveal a threshold beyond which the ML model's correction performance improves markedly. The ML model performance slightly declines in coastal regions, likely due to the inconsistent representation of UST between the land and water surface in the NWP model. Monthly analysis further shows superior model performance in November and December, when UST values are higher. This study underscores the value of explainable ML models in improving NWP wind forecasts and provides insights for correcting meteorological variables in NWP models.

Optimized machine learning models for predicting crown convergence of plateau mountain tunnels

To enhance the performance of machine learning (ML) models for the post-embolization recanalization of cerebral aneurysms, we evaluated the impact of hemodynamic feature derivation and selection method on six ML algorithms. We utilized computational fluid dynamics (CFD) to simulate hemodynamics in 66 cerebral aneurysms from 65 patients, including 57 stable and nine recanalized aneurysms. We derived a total of 107 features for each aneurysm, encompassing four clinical features, 12 morphological features, and 91 hemodynamic features. To investigate the influence of feature derivation and selection methods on the ML models, we employed two derivation methods, simplified and fully derived, in combination with four selection methods: all features, statistically significant analysis, stepwise multivariate logistic regression analysis (stepwise-LR), and recursive feature elimination (RFE). Model performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and precision-recall curve (AUPRC) on both the training and testing datasets. The AUROC values on the testing dataset exhibited a wide-ranging spectrum, spanning from 0.373 to 0.863. Fully derived features and the RFE selection method demonstrated superior performance in intra-model comparisons. The multi-layer perceptron (MLP) model, trained with RFE-selected fully derived features, achieved the best performance on the testing dataset, with an AUROC value of 0.863 (95% CI: 0.684- 1.000). Our study demonstrated the importance of feature derivation and selection in determining the performance of ML models. This enabled the development of accurate decision-making models without the need to invade the patient.

Utilizing an intelligent machine learning strategy for predicting the tensile strength and ductility properties of nitrogen doped CoCrFeMnNi based high entropy alloys

Su kaynaklarının planlanması ve tarımsal su yönetimi için referans bitki su tüketiminin (ET0) doğru tahmin edilmesi oldukça önemlidir. Bu çalışmada üç farklı makine öğrenimi yönteminin, yapay sinir ağları (YSA), rassal ağaç (RT) ve gauss süreç regresyonu (GPR), yarı nemli iklim koşullarına sahip bir bölgeden alınan iklim verileri kullanılarak günlük ET0’ı tahmin etme performansları araştırılmıştır. Modelleri eğitmek ve test etmek için Bafra’da 2018–2020 döneminde toplanan günlük meteorolojik verilerin beş girdi kombinasyonu [günlük ortalama (Tort), maksimum (Tmax) ve minimum sıcaklık (Tmin), rüzgar hızı (u2), bağıl nem (RHort) ve güneşlenme şiddeti (Rs) hem tam hem de eksik kombinasyonları dahil] kullanılmıştır. Makine öğrenimi modellerinin performansı ise FAO-56 Penman Monteith (FAO-56 PM) standart denklemi ile karşılaştırılmıştır. Modellerin doğruluğunu değerlendirmek için dört farklı istatistiksel performans indeksi kullanılmıştır [belirleme katsayısı (R2), ortalama mutlak hata (MAE), hata kareleri toplamının karekökü (RMSE) ve Nash–Sutcliffe etkinlik katsayısı (NSE)]. Sonuçlar, her beş senaryoda da YSA modellerinin RT ve GPR modellerinden daha iyi performans gösterdiğini ortaya koymuştur. Tüm verilerin girdi olarak kullanıldığı beşinci senaryo için YSA modelleri tarafından tahmin edilen ET0 değerlerinin FAO-56 PM değerleri ile iyi bir uyum içinde olduğu belirlenmiştir (R2=0.988, MAE=0.166, RMSE=0.205, NSE=0.984). Bununla birlikte meteorolojik veriler tam olmadığında bile sadece Tort, RHort ve Rs ile oldukça yüksek günlük ET0 tahminleri elde edilmiştir. Genel olarak, radyasyona dayalı makine öğrenimi modelleri, sıcaklığa dayalı makine öğrenimi modellerinden daha iyi performans göstermiştir. Sonuçlar, yarı nemli iklim özelliklerine sahip bir bölgede YSA modelinin ET0'ı oldukça verimli ve doğru bir şekilde modellemek için etkili bir şekilde kullanılabileceğini göstermektedir.

Background: Coronary Artery Disease (CAD) is one of the biggest causes of mortality worldwide. Risk stratification for early detection is essential for the primary prevention of CAD. QRISK3 is known to overestimate future CAD risk in some populations, resulting in unnecessary preventive treatment and reduced cost-effectiveness and safety. Combining machine learning model with the metaheuristic optimisation approach using the PSO algorithm may outperform QRISK3 in predicting CAD. It improves performance by selecting the best-performing subset of features related to clinical outcomes. Research Question: Does the performance of Machine Learning Models Combined with PSO Algorithm for Feature Selection as a Metaheuristic Optimisation Approach in Predicting Coronary Arterial Disease using the UK Biobank dataset outperform the QRISK3 calculator? Aims: This study is to assess the accuracy of QRISK3 in predicting CAD using the UK Biobank dataset. It aims to evaluate the efficacy of machine learning models on the identical dataset for predicting CAD. The work utilises the PSO algorithm for feature selection to identify the optimal subset of features from the UK Biobank dataset. Methods: This study utilises data from the UK Biobank. The dataset consists of 348,015 participants aged 24-84 with no prior diagnosis of CAD. The performance of both QRISK3 and machine learning models was evaluated separately using ROC analysis. Several machine learning models were employed: Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Random Forest, Naïve Bayes, and Gradient Boosting. The dataset was split into training and test sets with a ratio of 4:1 for the machine learning models. Each model has been developed by adding a PSO algorithm to enhance the model's classification accuracy. Results: Out of the total 348,015 participants, 23,136 individuals (6.64%) were diagnosed with CAD within 10 years following their first visit, while 324,879 individuals (93.4%) did not develop CAD. The AUC value of the QRISK3 prediction is 0.6113, while the combined machine learning models using the PSO algorithm using the gradient boosting model achieve an AUC of 0.7258, showing better performance. Conclusions: This study shows hybrid machine learning models optimised with the PSO algorithm can better predict CAD than QRISK3. These ML models can effectively identify high-risk CAD patients, allowing for more personalised preventative strategies and supporting policymakers in implementing lifestyle change recommendations.

The prediction of wind energy generation is important to enhance the performance and dependability of renewable energy systems due to the rising demand for wind-generated electricity and advancements in wind energy technology competitiveness. This study leverages advanced machine learning (ML) and some other statistical and deep learning based time series forecasting models to enhance the accuracy of wind energy predictions. This comprehensive analysis includes nine ML models—Linear Regression, Random Forests (RF), Gradient Boosting Machines (GBM), Support Vector Machines (SVM), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), AdaBoost, XGBoost, Support Vector Regression (SVR), and Neural Networks—as well as Four time-series forecasting models—ARIMA, Temporal Convolutional Networks (TCNs), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks and GRU. Each ML model underwent rigorous cross-validation to ensure optimal performance. The assessment criteria utilized here comprised the Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and the R² Score. It was found that among the nine ML models, Random Forests, GBM and KNN consistently provided superior accuracy and robustness, making them the top choices for wind energy prediction whereas the performance of linear regression, SVM and SVR were very poor for the considered dataset. From the experiment, Random Forest, GBM, and KNN showed the best performance with low MSE values of 0.77, 1.95, and 1.51 respectively, while other models had MSEs above 7.5, with AdaBoost reaching 30. Their RMSEs (0.88, 1.40, 1.23) and MAEs (0.093, 0.73, 0.10) also indicate strong predictive accuracy compared to the rest.In this paper, time series forecasting, TCNs, LSTM and GRU networks showed strong capabilities in capturing temporal dependencies and trends within the wind energy data. Visualization techniques were employed to compare model performances comprehensively, providing clear insights into their predictive power. Therefore, this present study offers a robust framework for researchers and practitioners aiming to leverage machine learning and time series forecasting in the realm of renewable energy prediction.