- Conference Article
- 10.1115/detc2025-169771
Alternative Robust Design Formulation and Solution Space Exploration Strategies to Manage Uncertainty in the Design of Engineering Systems
- Aug 17, 2025
- Pooja Mukundan + 3 more +3
The design of complex engineering systems often relies on simulation-based models, which inherently introduce uncertainty. Consequently, effective system design necessitates the incorporation of robust design principles and metrics to manage the uncertainties. From a decision-based design perspective, metrics such as the Design Capability Index (DCI) and Error Margin Index (EMI) are employed in problem formulations to address this challenge. These metrics typically utilize Taylor series-based approximations to estimate variance. However, due to the structural limitations of the Taylor series expansion, these formulations may mislead designers toward local minima rather than guide them toward actual robust solutions. In this paper, we propose an alternative formulation of the Design Capability Index (DCI) and Error Margin Index (EMI) that leverages the multiple-point variance estimation method. This approach employs a weighted average of multiple points to assess variance estimations around the nominal design, ensuring that the solution is not confined to a local optimum by estimating the correct variance at the local optimum. The proposed alternative metrics are incorporated into the robust Concept Exploration Framework (rCEF) to find robust solutions for complex engineering systems. A machine learning-based visualization tool, the interpretable Self-Organizing Maps (iSOM), is used to visualize and explore the high-dimensional robust solution space generated using the updated rCEF. Two examples are used to evaluate the proposed formulation: (i) a polynomial function to examine the effect of the alternative variance estimation method on EMI and DCI metrics, and (ii) a comprehensive hot rod rolling problem, considering model parameters and model structure uncertainty.
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