Peanut yield prediction with UAV multispectral imagery using a cooperative machine learning approach

Learning What Makes Catalysts Good

Accurate leaf area index estimation in sorghum using high-resolution UAV data and machine learning models

This study focuses on using various machine learning (ML) models to evaluate the shear behaviors of ultra-high-performance concrete (UHPC) beams reinforced with glass fiber-reinforced polymer (GFRP) bars. The main objective of the study is to predict the shear strength of UHPC beams reinforced with GFRP bars using ML models. We use four different ML models: support vector machine (SVM), artificial neural network (ANN), random forest (R.F.), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). The experimental database used in the study is acquired from various literature sources and comprises 54 test observations with 11 input features. These input features are likely parameters related to the composition, geometry, and properties of the UHPC beams and GFRP bars. To ensure the ML models' generalizability and scalability, random search methods are utilized to tune the hyperparameters of the algorithms. This tuning process helps improve the performance of the models when predicting the shear strength. The study uses the ACI318M-14 and Eurocode 2 standard building codes to predict the shear capacity behavior of GFRP bars-reinforced UHPC I-shaped beams. The ML models' predictions are compared to the results obtained from these building code standards. According to the findings, the XGBoost model demonstrates the highest predictive test performance among the investigated ML models. The study employs the SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) analysis to assess the significance of each input parameter in the ML models' predictive capabilities. A Taylor diagram is used to statistically compare the accuracy of the ML models. This study concludes that ML models, particularly XGBoost, can effectively predict the shear capacity behavior of GFRP bars-reinforced UHPC I-shaped beams.

This research paper investigates the efficacy of leading machine learning (ML) models for detecting and identifying ungulate species in African savanna using nadir imagery from unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Traditional aerial counting methods, while widely used, suffer from significant limitations in accuracy and precision, in part due to human biases. We examine the use of ML and its potential for aerial censuses by evaluating the performance of nine leading ML models, focusing on their ability to detect and identify five ungulate species: impala Aepyceros melampus , nyala Tragelaphus angasii , sable Hippotragus niger , roan Hippotragus equinus and buffalo Syncerus caffer . Using a UAV, 20 137 nadir images were obtained from two properties in north‐east South Africa. Data were manually annotated using bounding boxes and split into training, validation and test sets. ML models were trained on the same sets and run for detection of wildlife as a single class and for identification of each individual species. The models were compared across four metrics: precision, recall, F1‐score and mean average precision (mAP). The resulting highest wildlife detection scores were: precision 86.7%, recall 81%, F1 82.6% and mAP 85%, with newer and smaller models generally achieving higher scores than older and larger models respectively. Our results show ML model's animal detection rates comparable to highest human detections during aerial censuses. However, species identification results were overall lower with highest scores being: precision 59.4, recall 74.2, F1‐score 52.1% and mAP 55.7%, with significant variation between models and species, influenced by body size, colour and dataset size. The lower scores in species identification demonstrate that ML models are not yet suitable for performing fully automated censuses. Incorporating ML in a semi‐automated process may however, achieve higher precision than using human observers through the removal of human biases and greater repeatability through the ability to pre‐programme flight paths.

Improving autocoding performance of rare categories in injury classification: Is more training data or filtering the solution?

The ongoing Russia–Ukraine conflict has exacerbated the global crisis of natural gas supply, particularly in Europe. During the winter season, major importers of liquefied natural gas (LNG), such as South Korea and Japan, were directly affected by fluctuating spot LNG prices. This study aimed to use machine learning (ML) to predict the Japan Korea Marker (JKM), a spot LNG price index, to reduce price fluctuation risks for LNG importers such as the Korean Gas Corporation (KOGAS). Hence, price prediction models were developed based on long short-term memory (LSTM), artificial neural network (ANN), and support vector machine (SVM) algorithms, which were used for time series data prediction. Eighty-seven variables were collected for JKM prediction, of which eight were selected for modeling. Four scenarios (scenarios A, B, C, and D) were devised and tested to analyze the effect of each variable on the performance of the models. Among the eight variables, JKM, national balancing point (NBP), and Brent price indexes demonstrated the largest effects on the performance of the ML models. In contrast, the variable of LNG import volume in China had the least effect. The LSTM model showed a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.195, making it the best-performing algorithm. However, the LSTM model demonstrated a decreased in performance of at least 57% during the COVID-19 period, which raises concerns regarding the reliability of the test results obtained during that time. The study compared the ML models’ prediction performances with those of the traditional statistical model, autoregressive integrated moving averages (ARIMA), to verify their effectiveness. The comparison results showed that the LSTM model’s performance deviated by an MAE of 15–22%, which can be attributed to the constraints of the small dataset size and conceptual structural differences between the ML and ARIMA models. However, if a sufficiently large dataset can be secured for training, the ML model is expected to perform better than the ARIMA. Additionally, separate tests were conducted to predict the trends of JKM fluctuations and comprehensively validate the practicality of the ML models. Based on the test results, LSTM model, identified as the optimal ML algorithm, achieved a performance of 53% during the regular period and 57% d during the abnormal period (i.e., COVID-19). Subject matter experts agreed that the performance of the ML models could be improved through additional studies, ultimately reducing the risk of price fluctuations when purchasing spot LNG.

Machine learning (ML) models provide more choices to patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) to more properly manage blood glucose (BG) levels. However, because of numerous types of ML algorithms, choosing an appropriate model is vitally important. In a systematic review and network meta-analysis, this study aimed to comprehensively assess the performance of ML models in predicting BG levels. In addition, we assessed ML models used to detect and predict adverse BG (hypoglycemia) events by calculating pooled estimates of sensitivity and specificity. PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Explore databases were systematically searched for studies on predicting BG levels and predicting or detecting adverse BG events using ML models, from inception to November 2022. Studies that assessed the performance of different ML models in predicting or detecting BG levels or adverse BG events of patients with DM were included. Studies with no derivation or performance metrics of ML models were excluded. The Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies tool was applied to assess the quality of included studies. Primary outcomes were the relative ranking of ML models for predicting BG levels in different prediction horizons (PHs) and pooled estimates of the sensitivity and specificity of ML models in detecting or predicting adverse BG events. In total, 46 eligible studies were included for meta-analysis. Regarding ML models for predicting BG levels, the means of the absolute root mean square error (RMSE) in a PH of 15, 30, 45, and 60 minutes were 18.88 (SD 19.71), 21.40 (SD 12.56), 21.27 (SD 5.17), and 30.01 (SD 7.23) mg/dL, respectively. The neural network model (NNM) showed the highest relative performance in different PHs. Furthermore, the pooled estimates of the positive likelihood ratio and the negative likelihood ratio of ML models were 8.3 (95% CI 5.7-12.0) and 0.31 (95% CI 0.22-0.44), respectively, for predicting hypoglycemia and 2.4 (95% CI 1.6-3.7) and 0.37 (95% CI 0.29-0.46), respectively, for detecting hypoglycemia. Statistically significant high heterogeneity was detected in all subgroups, with different sources of heterogeneity. For predicting precise BG levels, the RMSE increases with a rise in the PH, and the NNM shows the highest relative performance among all the ML models. Meanwhile, current ML models have sufficient ability to predict adverse BG events, while their ability to detect adverse BG events needs to be enhanced. PROSPERO CRD42022375250; https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=375250.

Systematic literature review of machine learning based software development effort estimation models

4D printing soft robots guided by machine learning and finite element models

Simple SummaryEffective models for predicting non-functioning pituitary neuro-endocrine tumours (NF PitNET) recurrence and regrowth following surgical intervention remain elusive. Previous studies have identified conflicting risk factors in predictions of tumour progression for patients receiving surgery for NF PitNET. The aim of this study was to develop machine learning (ML) models to improve prediction of post-operative NF PitNET progression up to 15 years following surgery. ML models were shown to be effective for predicting tumour remission, stability, and regrowth, but were non-performant when predicting tumour recurrence or reduction in size. The extent of surgical resection was shown to have the strongest influence in the performant models, with lesser influence from age, tumour volume, and the use of post-operative radiotherapy, and with no influence shown from pre- or post-operative endocrine function.Post-operative tumour progression in patients with non-functioning pituitary neuroendocrine tumours is variable. The aim of this study was to use machine learning (ML) models to improve the prediction of post-operative outcomes in patients with NF PitNET. We studied data from 383 patients who underwent surgery with or without radiotherapy, with a follow-up period between 6 months and 15 years. ML models, including k-nearest neighbour (KNN), support vector machine (SVM), and decision tree, showed superior performance in predicting tumour progression when compared with parametric statistical modelling using logistic regression, with SVM achieving the highest performance. The strongest predictor of tumour progression was the extent of surgical resection, with patient age, tumour volume, and the use of radiotherapy also showing influence. No features showed an association with tumour recurrence following a complete resection. In conclusion, this study demonstrates the potential of ML models in predicting post-operative outcomes for patients with NF PitNET. Future work should look to include additional, more granular, multicentre data, including incorporating imaging and operative video data.

Accurate prediction of energy consumption in district heating systems plays an important role in supporting effective and clean energy production and distribution in dense urban areas. Predictive models are needed for flexible and cost-effective operation of energy production and usage, e.g., using peak shaving or load shifting to compensate for heat losses in the pipeline. This helps to avoid exceedance of power plant capacity. The purpose of this study is to automate the process of building machine learning (ML) models to solve a short-term power demand prediction problem. The dataset contains a district heating network’s measured hourly power consumption and ambient temperature for 415 days. In this paper, we propose a hybrid evolutionary-based algorithm, named GA-SHADE, for the simultaneous optimization of ML models and feature selection. The GA-SHADE algorithm is a hybrid algorithm consisting of a Genetic Algorithm (GA) and success-history-based parameter adaptation for differential evolution (SHADE). The results of the numerical experiments show that the proposed GA-SHADE algorithm allows the identification of simplified ML models with good prediction performance in terms of the optimized feature subset and model hyperparameters. The main contributions of the study are (1) using the proposed GA-SHADE, ML models with varying numbers of features and performance are obtained. (2) The proposed GA-SHADE algorithm self-adapts during operation and has only one control parameter. There is no fine-tuning required before execution. (3) Due to the evolutionary nature of the algorithm, it is not sensitive to the number of features and hyperparameters to be optimized in ML models. In conclusion, this study confirms that each optimized ML model uses a unique set and number of features. Out of the six ML models considered, SVR and NN are better candidates and have demonstrated the best performance across several metrics. All numerical experiments were compared against the measurements and proven by the standard statistical tests.

Road crash prediction has proven to be an effective means of improving highway safety. In recent years, machine learning (ML) models have been embraced as efficient for the prediction of road accident frequency. This study applied two machine learning models for the prediction of road accident occurrence on selected South-West highway in Nigeria. Accident data were obtained for the period of 10 years from 2013 to 2022 from the Federal Road Safety Commission (FRSC) of Nigeria on the road under study and the traffic operations were determined on site using manual counting and stopwatch approach. Machine Learning (ML) models including Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) were also used as the statistical model for safety prediction of the highway with consideration to identified contributing factors. The performance of the models was compared for both training and testing dataset using coefficient of determination (R2), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The study showed consistency and effective performance in both ML models with R2 of 0.99 in SVM, 0.97 and XGBoost for training data, also 0.93 in SVM and 0.76 in XGBoost testing data. ML models are also easy and fast to implement. The result of this study supports the use of ML as a predictive tool for road safety evaluation. The knowledge attained from this study will benefit transportation planners, engineers, and policymakers to implement effective measures aimed at reducing the crash occurrence, thereby enhancing overall transportation safety and efficiency.

Accurate estimation of reference evapotranspiration (ETo) plays a vital role in irrigation and water resource planning. The Penman–Monteith method recommended by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO PM56) is widely used and considered a standard to calculate ETo. However, FAO PM56 cannot be used with limited meteorological variables, so it is compulsory to choose an alternative model for ETo estimation, which requires fewer variables. This study built ten machine learning (ML) models based on multi-function, neural network, and tree-based structure against the FAO PM56 method. For this purpose, time series temperature data on a monthly scale are only used to train ML models. The developed ML models were applied to estimate ETo at different test stations and the obtained results were compared with the FAO PM56 method to verify and validate their performance in ETo estimation for the selected stations. In addition, multiple statistical indicators, including root-mean-square error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (R2), mean absolute error (MAE), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and correlation coefficient (r) were calculated to compare the performance of each ML model on ETo estimation. Among the applied ML models, the ETo tree boost (TB) ML model outperformed the other ML models in estimating ETo in diverse climatic conditions based on statistical indicators (R2, NSE, r, RMSE, and MAE). Moreover, the observed R2, NSE, and r were the highest for the TB ML model, while RMSE and MAE were found to be the lowest at the study sites compared to other applied ML models. Lastly, ETo point data yielded from the TB ML model was used in an interpolation process to create monthly and annual ETo maps. Based on the ETo maps, this study suggests mainly a focus on areas with high ETo values and proper irrigation scheduling of crops to ensure water sustainability.

Aim: The majority of machine learning (ML) models in healthcare are built on retrospective data, much of which is collected without explicit patient consent for use in artificial intelligence (AI) and ML applications. The primary aim of this study was to evaluate whether clinicians and scientific researchers themselves consent to provide their own data for the training of ML models. Materials and Methods: This survey was conducted through an anonymous online survey, utilizing platforms such as Telegram, LinkedIn, and Viber. The target audience comprised specific international groups, primarily Russian, German, and English-speaking, of clinicians and scientific researchers. These participants ranged in their levels of expertise and experience, from beginners to veterans. The survey centered on a singular, pivotal question: “Do You Consent to the Use of Your Biological and Private Data for Training Machine Learning and AI Models?” Respondents had the option to choose from three responses: “Yes” and “No”. Results: The survey was conducted in January 2024. A total of 119 unique and verified individuals participated in the survey. The results revealed that only 50% of respondents (63 persons) expressed consent to provide their own data for the training of ML and AI models. Conclusion: In the development of ML and AI models, particularly open-source ones, it is crucial to ascertain whether participants are willing to provide their private data. While ML algorithms can transform the nature of data, it is important to remember that the primary owner of this data is the individual. Our findings show that in 50% of the cases, even participants from scientific research and clinical backgrounds – individuals typically accountable for ensuring data quality in AI and ML model development – do not consent to the use of their data in AI and ML settings. This highlights the need for more stringent consent processes and ethical considerations in the utilization of personal data in AI and ML research.

This dissertation addresses two significant issues in the effective application of machine learning algorithms and models for the physical and engineering sciences. The first is the broad challenge of automated modeling of data across different processes in a physical system. The second is the dilemma of obtaining insightful interpretations on the relationships between the inputs and outcome of a system as inferred from complex, black box machine learning models.Automated Geometric Shape Deviation Modeling for Additive Manufacturing SystemsAdditive manufacturing systems possess an intrinsic capability for one-of-a-kind manufacturing of a vast variety of shapes across a wide spectrum of processes. One major issue in AM systems is geometric accuracy control for the inevitable shape deviations that arise in AM processes. Current effective approaches for shape deviation control in AM involve the specification of statistical or machine learning deviation models for additively manufactured products. However, this task is challenging due to the constraints on the number of test shapes that can be manufactured in practice, and limitations on user efforts that can be devoted for learning deviation models across different shape classes and processes in an AM system. We develop an automated, Bayesian neural network methodology for comprehensive shape deviation modeling in an AM system. A fundamental innovation in this machine learning method is our new and connectable neural network structures that facilitate the transfer of prior knowledge and models on deviations across different shape classes and AM processes. Several case studies on in-plane and out-of-plane deviations, regular and free-form shapes, and different settings of lurking variables serve to validate the power and broad scope of our methodology, and its potential to advance high-quality manufacturing in an AM system.Interpretable Machine LearningMachine learning algorithms and models constitute the dominant set of predictive methods for a wide range of complex, real-world processes. However, interpreting what such methods effectively infer from data is difficult in general. This is because their typical black box natures possess a limited ability to directly yield insights on the underlying relationships between inputs and the outcome for a process. We develop methodologies based on new predictive comparison estimands that effectively enable one to ``mine’’ machine learning models, in the sense of (a) interpreting their inferred associations between inputs and/or functional forms of inputs with the outcome, (b) identifying the inputs that they effectively consider relevant, and (c) interpreting the inferred conditional and two-way associations of the inputs with the outcome. We establish Fisher consistent estimators, and their corresponding standard errors, for our new estimands under a condition on the inputs' distributions. The significance of our predictive comparison methodology is demonstrated with a wide range of simulation and case studies that involve Bayesian additive regression trees, neural networks, and support vector machines. Our extended study of interpretable machine learning for AM systems demonstrates how our method can contribute to smarter advanced manufacturing systems, especially as current machine learning methods for AM are lacking in their ability to yield meaningful engineering knowledge on AM processes.