Perfect and Imperfect Credibility: A Brazilian Target Zone Analysis

This paper analyzes credibility in the Colombian exchange rate target zone. A model of imperfect credibility, in the spirit of Bertola and Svensson (1993) is derived, and is used to explain why the exchange rate in Colombia has remained for prolonged periods near the borders of the zone. The main feature of the model is that central parity depreciation expectations are endogenous with respect to the position of the exchange rate inside the target zone. The krugman(1991) perfectly credible setup turns out to be a particular case of this general model. One of the main implications of the model is that depreciation expectations increase rather than decrease as the exchange rate approaches the upper band. Hence a model as the one presented in this paper, is useful to explain the recent dynamics of interest rates in Colombia. It is also shown, that this model shares empirical features with the basic target zone model. Hence, policy makers might be misled when trying to recognize their credibility stance. A estructural estimation of the underlying parameters of the model, using McFadden's (1989) method of simulated moments, is suggested to identify the presence of non credibility issues. Econometric evidence suggest that Colombia's exchange rate target zone is properly described by a model of this nature.

The paper aims to highlight the main difficulties on the monetary path towards the euro zone experienced by Emerging Europe. Emerging European Economies (EEEs), EU members, adopted either double shift or smooth transition monetary approach towards the euro zone. Double shift assumes changes from floating exchange rate regimes (ERRs) to the ERM II target zone and, finally, monetary union as a rigid ERR. The smooth transition is practiced by economies with mainly rigid ERRs before the ERM II entrance and, at the end, again rigid ERR of a monetary union. Despite chosen monetary path towards the euro zone, crucial difficulties or aggravating factors could be identified in the form of real exchange rate appreciation due to productivity growth or capital inflows. A reconciliation of inflation and exchange rate target zone is extremely complex, at the same time striving not to jeopardize the real convergence. What is stressed here is the vicious cycle between real and nominal convergence as the reason why the ERM II target should be regarded as a “waiting room“ not as a “training room“ in the pre-EMU phase.

The role of regulatory credibility in effective bank regulation

The Effect of Central Bank Credibility on Forward Guidance in an Estimated New Keynesian Model

This article presents a new way of modeling the dynamics of an exchange rate target zone. In the presence of a single upper (lower) target boundary, the exchange rate is precisely represented as the sum of a free float and a short (long) position in a call (put) option with strike price at the boundary. To model a target zone (with two boundaries), a natural approach consists of describing the exchange rate dynamics as the combination of the two, namely the sum of free float together with a long position in a put written on the lower boundary and a short position in a call option written on the upper boundary, respectively. The authors show that this first order approximation leads to significant mispricing (as much as 20%) and must be iterated, leading to an infinite sequence of compounded “mirrored” option prices. They analyze basic properties of such mirrored nested options analytically, describe how to calculate them numerically, and show why it is crucial to take into account higher order corrections in realistic target zones. They argue that this analogy to option prices allows for conceptually simple generalizations that describe different target zone arrangements. They then apply their methodology to the estimation of the fundamental value of the Hong Kong dollar that is hidden by the target zone pegged to the US dollar. They also estimate the implied maturity and explain how this parameter serves as direct proxy for target zone credibility.

Exchange Rate Dynamics in a Target Zone - A Heterogeneous Expectations Approach

The credibility of exchange rate target zones for four EMS countries for the period March 1979-September 1992 is examined. Existing methods by Svensson, Edin and Vredin, typically applied to data from the Nordic countries, are considered. On balance, the method suggested by Edin and Vredin provides somewhat better estimates of devaluation probabilities than either of Svensson's methods. While all methods produce reasonably good estimates of the expected size of devaluations, they did not predict the September 1992 EMS crisis. However, we find that electoral and other institutional variables improve estimates of devaluation expectations.

An analytical approximation of target zone exchange rate functions: the technique of collocation

For seismic exploration, acoustic sources and receivers are positioned at the earth's surface in order to measure the reflection response from the subsurface inhomogeneities. However, in most current imaging algorithms, only the primary reflections are being taken into account and multiple reflections are being discarded as noise. In the recently proposed method of full wavefield imaging, the higher-order scattering is taken into account in the imaging process where they contribute to extend the illumination area and no longer produce spurious imaging artifacts. This method involves an inversion process, where a recursive modeling method is used to predict the measured reflection response—including all its higher-order scattering effects—based on estimated reflectivity values and background velocity model. Because the background velocity cannot be assumed to be homogeneous in the earth, background velocity model estimation is a crucial component of the imaging process. It appears that automatic estimation of velocity models can be accomplished within the concept of full wavefield migration, in which higher-order scattering events can also be fully accommodated. Finally, the results of full wavefield imaging can be combined with localized, target-oriented full waveform inversion in order to get the final details, being the elastic properties, at the target zone.

On the mean-reverting properties of target zone exchange rates: Some evidence from the ERM

This paper presents a new approach to analysing recent movements of EMU sovereign bond spreads. Based on a GARCH-in-mean model originally used in the exchange rate target zone literature, spreads are decomposed into a risk premium, an expected loss component and a liquidity premium. Time-varying probabilities of default are derived. The results suggest that the rise in sovereign spreads during the recent financial crisis mainly reflects an increased expected loss component. In addition, the rescue of Bear Stearns in March 2008 seems to mark a change in market perceptions of sovereign bond risk. The government bonds of some countries lost their former role as a safe haven. While price competitiveness always helps to explain sovereign spreads, it increasingly moved into investors’ focus as financial sector soundness weakened.

On the Sustainability of Exchange Rate Target Zones with Central Parity Realignments

A Opening Addresses.- I Introduction.- II The Role of Financial Markets in the Adjustment Process: the Finnish Experience.- III The International Adjustment Process.- IV Problems of Adjustment in Developing Countries.- B Current and Potential Balance of Payments Adjustment Problems.- V External Adjustment in Small Open Economies - Some Recent Experience.- VI Balance of Payments Adjustment Processes in Japan.- VII US External Adjustment in Response to the Lower Dollar: the J-Curve.- VIII Balance of Payments Adjustment Problems - the Case of West Germany.- C The Modus Operandi of The Process of Adjustment.- IX Current and Prospective Balance of Payments Problems.- X Policy Design in the Face of a Terms of Trade Shock.- XI Financial Interdependence and External Adjustment: Some Problems Posed by US Federal Government Indebtedness.- XII Mode Operatoire D'ajustement et Marches Speculatifs - Premiers Enseignements de la Crise Financiere Recente.- D Adjustment Policies.- XIII Exchange Rate Target Zones, the Louvre Accord and Policy Coordination.- XIV Reflections on World Economic Imbalances.- XV The International Economic Adjustment Mechanisms and the Coordination of Economic Policies.- XVI Recent Experience of International Monetary Policy Cooperation.- XVII The International Monetary System: Recent Developments and Key Issues.- E Special Problems of Adjustment in Developing Countries.- XVIII Special Problems of Adjustment in Developing Countries.- XIX Private Capital Flows and Developing Country Adjustment: Some Lessons of the Debt Crisis.- XX The Exchange Rate in the Adjustment Process of Less Developed Countries - a Multifarious Role.- XXI Foreign Lending Revisited 1880-1980.- F Concluding Address.- XXII Issues in International Economic Management.

Is the honeymoon effect valid in the presence of both exchange rate and output expectations? A graphical analysis

Realignment of Target Zone Exchange Rate Systems