Possible Evolutionary Response to Global Change – Evolutionary Rescue?

Economic and social development, the state of the environment and a propensity for disasters are closely intertwined. Therefore, environmental policy integration (EPI) across development and disaster management (DM) policies and plans is important. Pakistan as a country is highly vulnerable to climate-induced environmental changes and associated disasters. In this paper, the extent to which its national environment and climate change policy, disaster risk reduction (DRR) policy as well as disaster management (DM) plans are aligned is established, based on a review of government documents and expert opinions. In this context, a particular emphasis is put on China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) that led the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor Plan (CPEC; 2017-2030). While environmental assessment (EA) is currently not conducted for any DM policies and plans, DM and EA are well integrated into provincial environmental protection acts, in national as well as most provincial DM plans. It is concluded that a regulatory framework to guide EPI in DM for BRI and CPEC projects is needed.

Climate change is increasingly impacting global health, particularly for vulnerable populations such as pregnant women and children with red blood cell (RBC) disorders. These disorders, including sickle cell disease, thalassemia, and anemia, compromise the body’s ability to transport oxygen and are exacerbated by climate-induced environmental changes. This review evaluates the risks posed by climate change to individuals with RBC disorders, highlighting empirical data on the exacerbation of health complications and the effectiveness of adaptation strategies. Pregnant women with sickle cell disease, for instance, face a 34% higher risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes, including preterm birth and stillbirth, due to climate-induced heat stress and dehydration. Similarly, children with anemia experience a 25% increase in hospital admissions for heat-related illnesses during heatwaves, and malaria transmission, which extends by up to 60 days annually in some regions, further aggravates anemia in these populations. The effects of climate change on air quality and food security also pose significant risks for individuals with RBC disorders. Poor air quality, exacerbated by rising temperatures, has been shown to increase the frequency of vaso-occlusive crises in children with sickle cell disease by 30% in highly polluted areas. Additionally, climate change impacts on food security, as evidenced by a study in Ethiopia, where 41% of pregnant women with anemia also faced food insecurity, worsen nutritional deficiencies and anemia. These environmental factors, combined with the increased incidence of climate-sensitive infectious diseases such as malaria, highlight the urgent need for targeted adaptation strategies to mitigate the compounded health risks.

Spatial, seasonal, and climatic variability in mesozooplankton size spectra along a coastal-to-open ocean transect in the subarctic Northeast Pacific

Spatiotemporal patterns of high-mountain lakes and related hazards in western Austria

The complex relationship between linguistic diversity and climate change is a multifaceted phenomenon. Climate change has a direct and indirect impact on the preservation of the languages of small ethnic groups around the world. The spatial dimensions of climate change, including the disruption of ecosystems and cultures that support linguistic diversity, pose a significant threat to their continued existence (Bose 2017). Climate change may lead to changes in the range and contraction of the distribution of plant and animal species, which may disrupt the pollinator-plant system that are critical to the ecosystems and communities supporting these languages (Gómez-Ruiz and Lacher 2019). This can lead to the loss of important food sources as well as the displacement of local populations who rely on these natural resources for livelihoods and cultural practices. The research seeks to identify patterns, correlations and causal relationships between climate-related environmental change and the loss or transformation of languages, particularly those spoken by small or indigenous communities. Methodology outlines a comprehensive approach to research how climate change affects linguistic diversity in different regions of the world, with an emphasis on spatial analysis. One of the aims of the study is to map the geographical distribution of endangered languages and regions highly vulnerable to climate change. Spatial correlations between climate change impacts (eg sea level rise, desertification) and linguistic diversity are analysed. The research questions that have been addressed are which regions of high linguistic diversity are most affected by climate change? How do climate-induced environmental changes lead to the displacement of language communities? What spatial patterns can be observed between areas of high climate vulnerability and high linguistic diversity?

Evolutionary rescue, whereby adaptive evolutionary change rescues populations from extinction, is theorized to enable imperiled animal populations to persist under increasing anthropogenic change. Despite a large body of evidence in theoretical and laboratory settings, the potential for evolutionary rescue to be a viable adaptation process for free-ranging animals remains unknown. Here, we leverage a 38-year dataset following the fates of 53,959 Magellanic penguins (Spheniscus magellanicus) to investigate whether a free-ranging vertebrate species can morphologically adapt to long-term environmental change sufficiently to promote population persistence. Despite strong selective pressures, we found that penguins did not adapt morphologically to long-term environmental changes, leading to projected population extirpation. Fluctuating selection benefited larger penguins in some environmental contexts, and smaller penguins in others, ultimately mitigating their ability to adapt under increasing environmental variability. Under future climate projections, we found that the species cannot be rescued by adaptation, suggesting similar constraints for other long-lived species. Such results reveal how fluctuating selection driven by environmental variability can inhibit adaptation under long-term environmental change. Our eco-evolutionary approach helps explain the lack of adaptation and evolutionary rescue in response to environmental change observed in many animal species.

AimTo examine species and trait composition in stream diatoms along environmental, climatic and spatial gradients and to ascertain if the use of different levels of biological organization is beneficial for investigating global environmental changes and the role of history in structuring communities.LocationGlobal cover with datasets from the Antilles, France, Finland, New Zealand, La Réunion and the United States.MethodsWe related diatom species composition, guild composition, total richness and richness across guilds to environmental, climatic and spatial variables. We used non‐metric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) with environmental variable fitting, redundancy analysis (RDA) with variation partitioning, analysis of similarities and linear mixed models as statistical tools.ResultsSpecies composition differed significantly among the study regions, while the differences in guild composition were less pronounced. US and French streams shared a large number of species, whereas islands shared only a few species with continents. For species composition, all predictors showed significant relationships with diatoms but pH, longitude, annual temperature and precipitation had the strongest impact. Variation partitioning revealed that the local environment outperformed climatic and spatial variables. For guild composition, there was a substantial overlap across regions in NMDS. The results from RDA demonstrated, however, that guild composition was better explained than species composition, especially by environmental variables. Both species and guild richness were significantly correlated with most predictors. Notably, species richness scaled positively with latitude.Main conclusionsDiatom species and guild composition varied substantially in response to local environment and climatic and spatial variables indicating both environmental and historical effects. Species composition discriminated the geographical regions better, while guild composition detected the environmental gradients better. This emphasizes the need to examine different levels of organization to gain a deeper understanding of the roles of environment versus history in structuring communities. These findings suggest that diatom species distributions are under strong microevolutionary constraints. Conversely, guild distributions are less dependent on historic factors and are driven primarily by the environment, which makes them better suited for research on global environmental change.

Arctic biodiversity is under threat from both climate-induced environmental change and anthropogenic activity. However, the rapid rate of change and the challenging conditions for studying Arctic environments mean that many research questions must be answered before we can strategically allocate resources for management. Addressing threats to biodiversity in the Arctic is further complicated by the region's complex geopolitics, as eight countries claim jurisdiction over the area, with multiple local considerations such as Indigenous sovereignty and resource rights. Here, we identify research priorities to serve as a starting point for addressing the most pressing threats to Arctic biodiversity. We began by collecting pressing research questions about Arctic biodiversity, thematizing them as either threats or actions, and then categorizing them further into 18 groups. Then, drawing on cross-disciplinary and global expertise of professionals in Arctic science, management, and policy, we considered the barriers to answering these questions and proposed potential solutions that could be implemented if barriers were overcome. Overall, our horizon scan provides an expert assessment of threats (e.g., species’ responses to climate change) and actions (e.g., a lack of fundamental information regarding Arctic biodiversity) needing attention and is intended to guide future conservation action within the Arctic.

This chapter considers the notion of evolutionary responses in mitigating the harmful effects of environmental change. It describes how the persistence of populations will depend of phenotypic responses that better suit individuals for new conditions as a result of rapid environmental global change. It discusses how these evolutionary responses occur through individual-level behavioural or plastic changes, or population-level evolutionary changes. It reviews studies that have documented adaptive phenotypic responses to environmental change, and highlights how these examples have not investigated their potential role in making the difference between population persistence and extirpation. It also highlights key issues about evolutionary rescue and the limitations of this process, and outlines pressing research questions and potential empirical approaches to their resolution.

In recent years, sources, types and levels of contaminants in the marine environment have increased as a consequence of anthropogenic activities worldwide. Chemical substances are usually present in the marine environment at different concentrations. They are accumulated in the tissues of marine organisms exerting damaging effects at different levels of organization, from organisms to communities and ecosystems. The understanding of their effects and distribution has increased substantially since the early reports on the biological effects of marine pollution and associated monitoring problems. This Chapter has been divided into five main sections: (i) molecular, cellular and tissue level biomarkers in assessing effects, reviewing the use of biomarkers in monitoring effects; (ii) biological effects at organism and population level; (iii) bioassay studies at organism level, focusing on ecotoxicology and discussing toxicity estimation and bioassay limitations; (iv) ecological effects at community level, including structural parameters, such as richness, diversity, etc., but also the proportion of opportunistic and sensitive species, discussing the multiple pressure interactions; and (v) measuring pollutant effects in integrative assessments, both in evaluating risk and assessing the ecological status of the ecosystems. The main objective of the Chapter is to bring together the knowledge on the biological effects of pollution, developed in recent years, at different biological levels of organization.

When introducing new technologies, or dealing with uncertain situations in general, risk assessment is an established methodology to systematically and reliably consider whether intended benefits are gained or whether unwanted adverse effects are likely to occur. The German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) distinguishes different risk categories according to the probability and extent of any possible damage. Building on that, the Gene-Risk Research Consortium elaborated a hierarchical risk assessment approach to analyze possible impact of the cultivation of genetically modified organisms (GMO). This approach is also adaptable to risks involved in the development of synthetic life forms. Since the use of GMO affects different levels of organization addressed by different scientific disciplines and stakeholders, the potential risks of GMO cultivation have to be denoted as being systemic and require interdisciplinary as well as transdisciplinary co-operation. Synthetic biology can build on risk management solutions which have been established for the use of GMO—at least to the extent that comparable risk dimensions have to be covered. For both technologies, risk assessment has to consider a wide spectrum of cause-and-effect chains and the potential impact over long time spans and large areas of space. It must also consider potential self-dispersal and subsequent evolutionary processes in the ecosphere after intended or accidental release into open ecosystems. A holistic risk assessment approach to GMO was settled upon by applying the concept of emergent properties structuring possible effects for different levels of organisation considering that interactions on lower levels (molecules, cells, organisms) in composition are supposed to bring up new interaction types on higher levels (populations, ecosystems, landscapes, biomes). In comparison with this structured approach, the current legal regulations, as established in the EU, can be improved in coherence and systematization by the proposed approach, in particular with regard to different ecological and economic implications of GMO (and in parallel potential releases of synthetic organisms). This is especially relevant on the landscape level; for instance, as a comprehensive systematization of region-specific adverse effects on non-target organisms, complex coexistence issues related to different production systems or some social ecological topics. In conclusion, human intervention involving self-reproducing entities by means of genetic engineering, as well as development of new synthetic life forms, should always evaluate the complete set of causal interactions on all levels of physical, biotic and social organisation in order to minimise the probability of unintended, undesirable and even harmful effects as far as feasible through anticipative assessment.KeywordsRisk AssessmentSynthetic BiologySystemic RiskEmergent PropertyGenetically Modify OrganismThese keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Genesis and evolution of paleosols of the Marília Formation, Maastrichtian of the Bauru Basin, Brazil

The article attempts to apply a systematic approach to the consideration of types of existing systems to identify the specific evolution of ecosystems at different levels of organization. The conceptual main consideration of the problem of the specifics of the evolution of biotic systems at different levels of organization was the idea of the alternation of the types of their organization, namely, the statistical (C-system) and deterministic (D-system). For evolutionary transformations of C-systems (for example, populations), the influence of altered environmental factors is of primary importance, and for internal systems, for systems (for example, communities). The idea that the D-systems evolve according to the type of nomogenesis, and the C-system – selectogenesis is substantiated. Within the framework of the proposed isolation of different types of systems, the evolution of the biosphere probably proceeds according to the type of evolution of D-systems. Structural elements of the biosphere are diverse biogeocenoses, each of which represents a C-type system formed by the corresponding communities and elements of the environment. Keywords: evolution, levels of organization, ecosystems, biosphere.

Severe environmental change can drive a population extinct unless the population adapts in time to the new conditions ("evolutionary rescue"). How does biparental sexual reproduction influence the chances of population persistence compared to clonal reproduction or selfing? In this article, we set up a one-locus two-allele model for adaptation in diploid species, where rescue is contingent on the establishment of the mutant homozygote. Reproduction can occur by random mating, selfing, or clonally. Random mating generates and destroys the rescue mutant; selfing is efficient at generating it but at the same time depletes the heterozygote, which can lead to a low mutant frequency in the standing genetic variation. Due to these (and other) antagonistic effects, we find a nontrivial dependence of population survival on the rate of sex/selfing, which is strongly influenced by the dominance coefficient of the mutation before and after the environmental change. Importantly, since mating with the wild-type breaks the mutant homozygote up, a slow decay of the wild-type population size can impede rescue in randomly mating populations.

Frequency‐dependent (FD) selection is a central process maintaining genetic variation and mediating evolution of population fitness. FD selection has attracted interest from researchers in a wide range of biological subdisciplines, including evolutionary genetics, behavioural ecology and, more recently, community ecology. However, the implications of frequency dependence for applied biological problems, particularly maladaptation, biological conservation and evolutionary rescue remain underexplored. The neglect of FD selection in conservation is particularly unfortunate. Classical theory, dating back to the 1940s, demonstrated that frequency dependence can either increase or decrease population fitness. These evolutionary consequences of FD selection are relevant to modern concerns about population persistence and the capacity of evolution to alleviate extinction risks. But exactly when should we expect FD selection to increase versus decrease absolute fitness and population growth? And how much of an impact is FD selection expected to have on population persistence versus extinction in changing environments? The answers to these questions have implications for evolutionary rescue under climate change and may inform strategies for managing threatened populations. Here, we revisit the core theory of FD selection, reviewing classical single‐locus models of population genetic change and outlining short‐ and long‐run consequences of FD selection for the evolution of population fitness. We then develop a quantitative genetic model of evolutionary rescue in a deteriorating environment, with population persistence hinging upon the evolution of a quantitative trait subject to both frequency‐dependent and frequency‐independent natural selection. We discuss the empirical literature pertinent to this theory, which supports key assumptions of our model. We show that FD selection can promote population persistence when it aligns with the direction of frequency‐independent selection imposed by abiotic environmental conditions. However, under most scenarios of environmental change, FD selection limits a population's evolutionary responsiveness to changing conditions and narrows the rate of environmental change that is evolutionarily tolerable.