Practical Applications of Top-Down Portfolio Implications of Climate Change

Uncertainty of 21st century growing stocks and GHG balance of forests in British Columbia, Canada resulting from potential climate change impacts on ecosystem processes

Impact of climate change on farms in smallholder farming systems: Yield impacts, economic implications and distributional effects

Reforestation can compensate negative effects of climate change on amphibians

This study aims at contributing to the vulnerability and adaptation to climate changes (CC) analysis of bordering communities of Togodo Reserve, in order to enhance their resilience. Specifically, the present study attempted to (i) identify the climatic hazards of the WRT; (ii) determine the impacts of climate variability and change on their livelihoods; (iii) assess the socio-economic vulnerability of these communities to food insecurity in relation to CC; and (iv) identify indigenous adaptation strategies to control the effects of CC. The methodological approach used is based on a factual research and a field investigation. The investigation is conducted in two villages around the reserve, namely Deve and Gbohoule. The results showed that climate variability and change were appreciated in different indicators by the local communities living around the WRT: Droughts, flooding, high winds and temperature increase with severe consequences on the communities (famine, destruction of tangible and intangible properties, loss of human life, populations’ migration). The communities are aware that humans are responsible for these events that have become recurrent from 2007 and occur almost every year. According to them, the causes of climate changes are deforestation (due to overexploitation of timber, fuelwood and shifting agriculture), bush fires, rapid increase in population, anger of gods due to irregularities of sacrifices and violations of customs. The communities are vulnerable to main climatic hazards and suffered from food insecurity. The factorial correspondence analysis (FCA)) carried out shows that the perception of the degree of exposure of households to risks depends on their standard of livelihood. Facing these climate events, the populations develop many adaptive strategies of which most are consistent with the national orientations and strategies. These adaptive strategies must be reinforced and supported in order to reduce the vulnerability of these populations to climate changes. Key words: Climate variability and change, communities, livelihood, vulnerability and adaptation, Wildlife Reserve of Togodo.

The role of the chief scientist (CS), a key administrative position in various Israeli ministries, is to fund policy‐oriented research and support evidence‐based decision‐making. Has the CS's role promoted or constrained incorporation of scientific advice regarding climate change adaptation into governmental policy? Have administrative traditions affected the adaptation planning process in Israel? Analysis of documents and 26 in‐depth interviews with key stakeholders sheds light on the ongoing climate change adaptation policy formulation process. Our study reveals that the CS of the Ministry of Environmental Protection functions as a bridge at different interfaces and can be characterized as a boundary worker between institutions. The inherent independence of this position facilitates the CS's ability to initiate, foster, and prioritize complex issues such as adaptation. Our findings further suggest that the perception that Israel has already adapted, or will easily adapt, has negatively affected the adaptation process. 科学建议和行政传统：首席科学家在气候变化适应工作中的作用 首席科学家是以色列各部门的一个关键行政职务, 其具体作用是为政策性研究提供资金, 并支持循证决策。对于有关气候变化适应的科学建议, 首席科学家的作用是促进还是限制了其被纳入到政府政策中？行政传统是否影响了以色列的气候适应规划进程？通过文件分析及与关键利益相关者的26次深入访谈, 笔者揭示了正在进行的适应气候变化政策的制定过程。研究表明, 环保部门的首席科学家在不同的层面上起着桥梁作用, 在不同机构的分界线上工作以彼此连接。该职位的内在独立性能促进首席科学家在发起问题、培养和优先考虑包括适应气候等复杂问题的能力。研究进一步表明, 以色列已经适应了或即将轻易适应某些观点, 而这已经对气候适应过程产生了负面影响。 Asesoria cientifica y tradiciones administrativas: el papel que juegan los cientificos principales en la adaptacion al cambio climatico El papel que juegan los cientificos principales, un puesto administrativo clave en varios ministerios israelies, esta especificamente designado para el financiamiento de investigacion orientada hacia la politica y el apoyo a decisiones basadas en evidencia. ?El papel que juegan los cientificos principales ha promovido o limitado la incorporacion de asesoria cientifica en lo que concierne a la adaptacion al cambio climatico dentro de las politicas del gobierno? ?Las tradiciones administrativas han afectado el proceso de planeacion para la adaptacion en Israel? El analisis de los documentos en 26 entrevistas exhaustivas con partes afectadas clave ilustra el proceso de formulacion de las politicas de adaptacion al cambio climatico actual. Nuestro estudio revela que el Cientifico Principal del Ministerio de Proteccion Ambiental funciona como un puente para diferentes interfaces y puede ser caracterizado como un trabajador limitrofe entre las instituciones. La independencia inherente de esta posicion facilita la habilidad del cientifico principal para iniciar, fomentar y darle prioridad a complejos problemas como la adaptacion. Nuestros hallazgos sugieren que la percepcion de Israel ya se ha adaptado, o se adaptara facilmente, y ha afectado negativamente el proceso de adaptacion.

Climate Change (CC) is universally recognized as a major global threat due to its nature of impacts. Island nations are known to be the most vulnerable to CC impacts where many countries have initiated mitigation and adaptation actions through sector-based policy measures. Singapore and Sri Lanka are two Asian island nations with CC induced threats. Two countries are different in terms of economic development, but similar developing countries in the CC agenda. In this context, both the countries have initiated mitigation and adaptation actions through policy measures. This study compares the key climate driven performance indicators with historical data to evaluate the performance of climate change policy of each country. Generally, policy evaluation has been conducted by adopting scientific and non-scientific tools, but it is seldom see that the relation of climate driven indicators along with CC policy. Also the policy research was mostly based on European case studies and Asian island nations were not easy to find in this context. The comparison of two countries in terms of CC policy is to determine the key vulnerable sectors where intervention is necessary for island nations. Mitigation policies are evaluated in Singapore and Sri Lanka using GHG emission pathways under twelve (12) indicators and adaptation policies are measured under the national expenditure of key sectors of the economy under seven (07) indicators. The analysis further elaborated by comparing both countries with key economic sectors that has positive and negative influence on CC impacts. Finally, the analysis outcome is used for lessons to learn from each other in improving the CC policy of Singapore and Sri Lanka. As every country has a unique set of strategies to minimize contributions to CC impacts, unique features that are common to both countries are chosen as variables for the comparison. Policy recommendations are provided to implement solid action plan for post 2020. The study expects to assist island countries to strengthen the CC policy as a national priority to manage unforeseen impacts posed by CC phenomena

ISVEE 14 Yucatan 2015 14th Symposium of the International Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics

The risks and opportunities presented by climate change for Small and Medium Sized Enterprises (SMEs) have been largely overlooked by previous research. The subsequent lack of knowledge in this field makes it difficult for SMEs to engage with climate change in a meaningful, profitable, and sustainable way. Further, current research cannot explain why SMEs rarely engage with climate change. We examine critically 30 SMEs, which engage with climate change knowledges and 5 Innovation-Support-Organizations (ISOs) that communicate climate change knowledges. Over a three-year period we explore why and how these businesses approach the knowledge gap between climate change science and business practice, drawing on a variety of ethnographic research methods: (1) in-depth semi-structured and open interviews; (2) participant observations; and (3) practitioners’ workshops. The results demonstrate that business’ mitigation and adaptation strategies are lay-knowledge-dependent, derived from personal values, space, and place identity. To enhance the number of SMEs engaging with climate change, maximize the potential value of climate change for the econo- my and establish a low carbon economy, climate change communication needs to target personal values of business leaders. The message should highlight local impacts of climate change, the benefits of engagement to (the local) society and economy, and possible financial benefits for the business. Climate change communication therefore needs to go beyond thinking about potential financial benefits and scientific evidence and challenge values, cultures, and beliefs to stimulate economic, political, and social frameworks that promote values-based decision-making.

Climate change may cause shifts in the natural range of species especially for those that are geographically restricted and/or endemic species. In this study, the spatial distribution of five endemic and threatened species belonging to the genus Onosma (including O. asperrima, O. bisotunensis, O. kotschyi, O. platyphylla, and O. straussii) was investigated under present and future climate change scenarios: RCP2.6 (RCP, representative concentration pathway; optimistic scenario) and RCP8.5 (pessimistic scenario) for the years 2050 and 2080 in Iran. Analysis was conducted using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to provide a basis for the protection and conservation of these species. Seven environmental variables including aspect, depth of soil, silt content, slope, annual precipitation, minimum temperature of the coldest month, and annual temperature range were used as main predictors in this study. The model output for the potential habitat suitability of the studied species showed acceptable performance for all species (i.e., the area under the curve (AUC)>0.800). According to the models generated by MaxEnt, the potential current patterns of the species were consistent with the observed areas of distributions. The projected climate maps under optimistic and pessimistic scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively) of 2050 and 2080 resulted in reductions and expansions as well as positive range changes for all species in comparison to their current predicted distributions. Among all species, O. bisotunensis showed the most significant and highest increase under the pessimistic scenario of 2050 and 2080. Finally, the results of this study revealed that the studied plant species have shown an acute adaptability to environmental changes. The results can provide useful information to managers to apply appropriate strategies for the management and conservation of these valuable Iranian medicinal and threatened plant species in the future.

The forthcoming climate changes are the biggest challenge facing mankind today. They will exert influence on the ecosystems, on all branches of the international economy, and on the quality of life. The climate changes and their consequences have a great number of regional aspects, which global models cannot predict. That is why an operation plan for adaptation to climate changes has to be based on well-grounded scientific assessments, taking in consideration regional features of the climate changes and their consequences. The present work aims to give an overview of the high performance computing (HPC) facilities’ implementation for studying of present and future regional climates of the Balkan region. Simulations were performed with the regional climate model RegCM on the supercomputer Avitohol of IICT – BAS. The global climate simulations, taken from HadGEM2 database were used as source for the initial and lateral boundary conditions. The simulations were performed for the following time slots: 1) 1975 – 2005 – reference period, 2) 2020 – 2050 – near future and 3) 2070 – 2099 – far future. The simulations for the future climate were carried out for 3 CMIP5 emission scenarios: RCP2.6 (optimistic scenario), RCP4.5 (realistic scenario) and RCP8.5 (pessimistic scenario). The simulation results for the reference period were compared with the independent, observation-based data set E-OBS. These preliminary simulation results reveal that the projected climate changes are strongest in the far future and RCP8.5. According to the temperature, the warming signal is spatially dominating with peak values the summer, when it is more than 4.5 °C. The projected precipitation change is more complex, both in time and space. It is worth emphasizing, however, that the expected summer months reduction, which could amplify the negative impact of the expected warmer climate.

Climate change has significant effects on societies and ecosystems. Due to the strong link between climate and the hydrological cycle, water resources is one of the most affected fields by climate change. It is of great importance to investigate climate change effects on streamflows by producing future streamflow projections under different scenarios to create adaptation measures and mitigate potential impacts of climate change. The Upper Campaspe Catchment (UCC), located at North Central Victoria in Australia, is a significant catchment as it provides a large portion of total inflow to the Lake Eppalock Reservoir, which supplies irrigation to the Campaspe Irrigation district and urban water to Bendigo, Heathcote, and Ballarat cities. In this study, climate change effects on monthly streamflows in the UCC was investigated using high resolution future climate data from CSIRO and MIROC climate models in calibrated IHACRES hydrological model. The IHACRES model was found to be very successful to simulate monthly streamflow in UCC. Remarkable streamflow reductions were projected based on the climate input from both models (CSIRO and MIROC). According to the most optimistic scenario (with the highest projected streamflows) by the MIROC-RCP4.5 model in near future (2035–2064), the Upper Campaspe River will completely dry out from January to May. The worst scenario (with the lowest streamflow projection) by the CSIRO-RCP8.5 model in the far future (2075–2104) showed that streamflows will be produced only for three months (July, August, and September) throughout the year. Findings from this study indicated that climate change will have significant adverse impacts on reservoir inflow, operation, water supply, and allocation in the study area.

Climate change is a global phenomenon that affects everyone. It is a development issue (World Bank in World development report and climate change. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, 2010) that has to be understood in order to be addressed more collectively and comprehensively. There have been numerous studies on the role of governments in climate change mitigation and adaptation. This is because as duty bearers, governments are expected to orchestrate initiatives to address environmental, economic, social and other vulnerabilities of countries. Studies concerning the role of the private sector in climate change are however few. Thus, under the framework of collaborative governance (Ansell and Gash in J Public Adm Res Theor 18:543–571, 2008) where each sector of the society has a role to play, this paper focuses on the roles played by the private sector in addressing the risks and vulnerabilities brought about by climate change. In so doing, it hopes to contribute to the understanding of private sector engagement in climate change beyond awareness raising. Being mainly a desk review of secondary materials and existing studies on the topic at hand, it argues that the private sector in the Philippines has embraced the issue of climate change and has been doing all it can to help address this development concern. It also looks at some of the messages, e.g., the risks of climate change, support needed for climate change solutions, and some climate change issues and concerns, selected business companies have been communicating to the public to understand the content as well as the underpinning philosophy of why private sector initiates activities for climate change.

Climate change is a pervasive global issue that threatens the livelihoods and wellbeing of billions living globally. Climate change is a risk multiplier impacting all ecosystems, society, and sectors of the economy. The agriculture sector is one such sector that is highly vulnerable to changes in climate. In a country like Nepal where rainfed agriculture is a dominant occupation and a key pillar of the country’s economy, climate change brings risks and negative consequences for on-farm production, farmers' livelihoods as well as on the country’s development. The impacts of climate change including rising temperatures, an increase in the frequency or intensity of extreme weather events such as drought, and shifts in the rainfall seasonality, can cause a decline in food production and threaten the quality of food supplies, leading to reduced food security. The rise in the global population will increase global demand for food which implies that agriculture needs to boost production and increase yields, among other things. The unprecedented risks posed by climate change potentially undermine the ability of farms and farm holders to grow adequate and quality food. The severity of these risks varies due to a range of underlying factors including low economic development, their location, existing biophysical and socioeconomic conditions, and institutional arrangements. While the impacts of climate change on food production as well as agricultural practices in Nepal have been documented, there is a dearth in scholarly literature that has assessed the impacts of climate change on household food security in Nepal incorporating farmers’ perspectives and in particular smallholder subsistence farmers. Furthermore, there is only modest literature that has examined geographical variations in those experiences and understandings. This PhD study aimed, therefore, to investigate the effects of climate change on agricultural practices and food security, with a focus on subsistence smallholder farmers in three main agro- ecological zones of Nepal known as The Mountains, Hills, and the Terai. The study aimed to respond to the primary research question: How are Nepalese farming communities being impacted by climate change and how are they responding to ensure their continued food security? To answer this main research, question the study posed the following secondary research questions: Q1. How is climate changing and how is it impacting subsistence agriculture? Q2. What are the farmers experiencing and what is their understanding? a. Are there gender differences in understanding and experiencing? Q3. What is the state of food insecurity among these farmers? a. How is it being impacted by climate change? Q4. What adaptation strategies have been adopted by smallholder farmers to address threats to agricultural practices and food security from climate change and other pressures? Both the qualitative and qualitative data were collected using multiple methods to address the identified research questions. Methods included a narrative literature review, systematic review, face to face interviews with farmers, individual interviews with key informants and focus groups with the women's group. Climate data on temperature between 1971-2013 and rainfall between 1967-2013 were analysed. Additionally, secondary data on crop yield from 1980 to 2016 were also analysed to gain a better empirical understanding of the relations between climate change and yield pattern and to triangulate and validate the findings from the interviews. Quantitative data on cereal crop yields and climate data were systematically tabulated and further statistically analysed using software R. This study employed the Bayesian approach to statistical modelling. Besides, this study undertook an integrated risk assessment of food insecurity using the Bayesian Belief Network model to reflect how the risk of food insecurity is influenced under two scenarios: (1) current climate conditions and (2) the influences of different adaptation strategies employed. NVivo was used for content analysis for qualitative data obtained from the key informant interview and focus group data and analysis of transcripts from farmers' structured interviews. The findings showed that agricultural practices have undergone various changes over the past 30 years. Climate change impacts were experienced by farmers in all three agro-ecological zones of Nepal. However, the impacts varied between these zones in terms of frequency and intensity. The effect of climate change was highly pronounced in the Mountains zone followed by the Hills and the Terai. The results confirmed that rural subsistence smallholder farmers dependent on rainfed agriculture are vulnerable to climate change impacts. Moreover, it disproportionately affects the poor farmers whose income hinges solely on agriculture and associated activities. Boosting agricultural production and empowering these smallholders is key to enhancing their food security. The experiences reported by farmers are well aligned with the trend of the climatic variables obtained from climate data analysis, highlighting the importance of perception-based survey in complementing climate research. The study demonstrated both the climatic and non-climatic factors are affecting agricultural practices as well as household food security of these farming communities. It is, therefore, difficult to isolate the influence of any of these factors. This was supported by the findings from the risk assessment undertaken by Bayesian modelling. Based on Bayesian modelling, the smallholder farmers mainly at the Mountain zone were at the risk of food insecurity. The measures to increase the adaptive capacity of these smallholders were found to help them manage the risk of food insecurity. Addressing the complicated and multifaceted concerns of climate change and food security needs multidisciplinary and multisectoral adaptation interventions acknowledging underlying biophysical, social, economic, geographical and environmental circumstances. Farmers have taken some actions to adapt and reduce the worsening impacts of climate change. Nevertheless, farmers encountered several barriers in effectively adapting to climate change. This study concluded there is an urgent need for a transformative level of intervention that warrants a coordinated action and collaboration between relevant stakeholders working in this field, including governments and non-governmental organizations, to target the most vulnerable and the needy smallholder farmers addressing the constraints and pressures they face. Policy and decision-makers should work extensively and sensitively with smallholders to ensure the maintenance of their livelihood and to guarantee their food security. Combining local and scientific knowledge is needed to help direct research and tailor adaptation solutions that meet local conditions and needs.

BACKGROUNDAs more people recognise the challenges of climate change, an increasing number are trying to reduce their ecological footprint.However, it remains uncertain whether this extends to decisions about having children.Despite public debate, scholarly research remains scarce. OBJECTIVEOur aim is to explore whether and how vignettes about climate change impact short-term fertility desires among young adults, and how this may be moderated by perceived personal responsibility and satisfaction with the government. METHODSWe conducted an online experiment with university students from Belgium (N = 262) and Italy (N = 169).Respondents not in the control group were exposed to either a pessimistic or a more optimistic climate change vignette before being asked about their fertility desires.Multinomial regression was used for hypothesis testing. RESULTSThe exposure to a pessimistic scenario increased the likelihood of low fertility desire in both Belgian and Italian respondents compared to their control groups.Following the optimistic scenario, Belgians reported a higher probability of high desire, while Italians experienced effects similar to those exposed to the pessimistic scenario.These differences were moderated by feelings of personal responsibility and satisfaction with government's actions.

<p>The ability of decision makers to respond to climate change impacts such as sea-level rise and increased flood frequency is challenged by uncertainty about scale, timing, dynamic changes that could lead to regime shifts, and by societal changes. Climate change adaptation decision making needs to be robust and flexible across a range of possible futures, to provide sufficient certainty for investment decisions in the present, without creating undue risks and liabilities for the near and long-term futures. A country’s governance and regulatory institutions set parameters for such decisions. The decision-making challenge is, therefore, a function of the uncertainty and dynamic characteristics of climate change, a country’s institutional framework, and the ways in which actual decision-making practice delivers on the intention of the framework. My research asks if the current decision-making framework, at national and sub-national scales, and practices under it are adequate to enable decision makers to make climate change adaptation decisions that sufficiently address the constraints posed by climate change uncertainty and dynamic change. The focus is on New Zealand’s multi-scale governance and institutional framework with its high level of devolution to the local level, the level assumed as the most appropriate for climate change adaptation decisions. Empirical information was collected from a sample of agencies and actors, at multiple governance scales reflecting the range of geographical characteristics, governance types, organisational functions and actor disciplines. Data were collected using a mix of workshops, interviews and document analyses. The adequacy of the institutional framework and practice was examined using 12 criteria derived from the risk-based concepts of precaution, risk management, adaptive management and transformational change, with respect to; a) understanding and representing uncertainty and dynamic climate change; b) governance and regulations; and c) organisations and actors. The research found that the current decision-making framework has many elements that could, in principle, address uncertainty and dynamic climate change. It enables long-term considerations and emphasises precaution and risk-based decision making. However, adaptive and transformational objectives are largely absent, coordination across multiple levels of government is constrained and timeframes are inconsistent across statutes. Practice shows that climate risk has been entrenched by misrepresentation of climate change characteristics. The resulting ambiguity is compounded at different governance scales, by gaps in the use of national and regional instruments and consequent differences in judicial decisions. Practitioners rely heavily upon static, time-bound treatments of risk, which reinforce unrealistic community expectations of ongoing protections, even as the climate continues to change, and makes it difficult to introduce transformational measures. Some efforts to reflect changing risk were observed but are, at best, transitional measures. Some experimentation was found in local government practice and boundary organisations were used as change-agents. Any potential improvements to both the institutional framework and to practices that could enable flexible and robust adaptation to climate change, would require supporting policies and adaptive governance to leverage them and to sustain decision making through time. This thesis contributes to understanding how uncertainty and dynamic climate change characteristics matter for adaptation decision making by examining both a country-level institutional framework and practice under it. The adequacy analysis offers a new way of identifying institutional barriers, enablers and entry points for change in the context of decision making under conditions of uncertainty and dynamic climate change.</p>