Predicting Future Citations from A.I. Publication Trends: A Comparative Analysis of Forecasting Models

This study applies machine learning (ML) techniques to model and predict Assam’s agricultural Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP). Three predictive models—multiple linear regression, random forest regression, and gradient boosting—are evaluated. The random forest model achieved the best fit, exhibiting the highest R² and the lowest mean squared error (MSE) and Akaike information criterion (AIC), along with statistically significant coefficients. Ensemble methods (random forest and gradient boosting) markedly improve forecast accuracy of agricultural growth trends compared to traditional regression, yielding more reliable predictions of productivity and GSDP contributions. The findings underscore the vital role of agricultural productivity in driving economic growth, strengthening GSDP, and supporting food security and employment. Integrating advanced ML techniques with statistical analysis provides insights for policymakers to make data-driven decisions that foster sustainable agricultural development and economic prosperity in Assam. Objectives: Predict Assam’s agricultural sector performance using selected machine learning models. Evaluate and compare the effectiveness of these models in assessing the state’s agricultural economy. Methods: Data preprocessing involved handling outliers (using interquartile range and mean-max scaling) and feature selection via correlation heatmaps. Predictive models (multiple linear regression, random forest regression, and gradient boosting) were implemented in Python. Results: The gradient boosting model emerged as the most effective, achieving the highest accuracy and generalization (testing R² = 0.9867). Farm area, labour, maize yield, and autumn rice yield were the most significant positive contributors to GSDP. The random forest model performed similarly well (R² = 0.9867), while the multiple linear regression model was least accurate (R² = 0.9521), likely due to its inability to capture nonlinear relationships. Conclusions: Machine learning models offer transformative potential for Assam’s agricultural sector. Leveraging data-driven insights from these models can empower policymakers to design targeted interventions, promoting inclusive and sustainable economic growth in the region.

Personal identification of an individual has always been a major concern in forensic science. Reconstruction of the facial profile is considered as one of the final stages in the process of identification. Nevertheless, recent advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) have demonstrated remarkable potential in predictive modelling and forensic applications. The current study uses customised machine learning models to predict facial dimensions based on dental and jaw parameters. A sample of 422 participants (201 males and 221 females) from a North Indian population was collected and analysed. Dental casts, anthropometric facial measurements and photographs of the participants were collected with informed consent. ML models such as Support Vector Regression (SVR), Random Forest Regression (RFR), Decision Tree Regression (DTR), and Linear Regression (LR) were trained using dental and jaw measurements as input features for the models. The results show that the ML models predicted the facial dimensions with an accuracy of 90–94% and a very low prediction error of 0.1–0.9 across all facial measurements. Among the models, SVR and LR models perform well, followed by RFR, whereas DFR yielded comparatively lower accuracy. The findings demonstrate that machine learning models (SVR, RFR, DTR, and LR) can be used as novel approach to predict facial dimensions from jaw and teeth parameters. These techniques can be combined with other facial reconstruction techniques to produce more precise and accurate outcomes. The reliability and accuracy in predicting the facial dimensions indicate that the results can be applied in the practical and real situations such as personal identification, forensic investigations, disaster victim identification cases, and archaeological remains where only jaw and teeth are available for examination. Integrating ML-based predictions with traditional facial reconstruction techniques could enhance the accuracy and reliability of forensic identification methodologies.

Air pollution is a leading cause of mortality in the developing world, with industrial regions experiencing particularly high levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5). The Assam Oil Field Region, a significant industrial hub, is characterized by elevated PM2.5 concentrations, yet predictive modeling studies in such environments remain scarce. This study presents a preliminary exploration of statistical and machine learning techniques, aiming to identify potential tools for future environmental monitoring, in oil field localities. Using a limited dataset (n = 109), we modelled PM2.5 levels based on multiple predictor variables, including meteorological parameters (temperature, humidity, wind speed, and wind direction). We employed multiple linear regression alongside six machine learning models—Linear Regression, Decision Tree Regression, Support Vector Regression, KNN Regression, XGBoost Regression (XGBR), and Random Forest Regression, and one Feed Forward Deep Learning model. Additionally, Principal Component Analysis was employed to investigate the impact of dimensionality reduction on model performance. Among the models, XGBR consistently demonstrated superior predictive performance, achieving high R2 scores (0.78 in non-PCA, 0.59 in PCA) and minimal error metrics (MAE: 6.75, MSE: 62.72, RMSE: 7.92). Its robustness across scenarios and ability to handle complex relationships efficiently make it particularly effective compared to other ensemble methods like Random Forest Regression. While initial outcomes suggest the potential of machine learning models, especially XGBoost, for PM2.5 predictions in industrial contexts, further validation using larger and more diverse datasets is necessary. These early findings may serve as a basis for future work on data-driven air quality forecasting in oil field regions.

Farming, city planning, and energy control are vital in proper forecasting of weather. This research paper proposes a complete machine learning-based prediction model on the maximum temperature with a big historical weather dataset gathered in Bengaluru, India. The data will be in 96432 hourly observations of 25 meteorological variables, such as temperature indices, humidity, wind characteristics, sun exposure, atmospheric pressure, and some astronomical variables. Strict data preprocessing pipeline was applied which included removal of duplicates, categorical encoding, feature scaling by standardization, and elimination of outliers by interquartile range which left a clean dataset of 63,703 records. The relevance of the features was properly analyzed with Sequential Feature Selection and Recursive Feature Elimination with the identification of the following salient predictors: minimum temperature, solar hours, UV index, wind chill, wind gust speed, and ambient temperature. Interdependencies between meteorological variables were also best supported by correlation analysis. Several machine learning models using the multiple regression such as Linear Regression, K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Decision Tree Regressor, and Random Forest Regressor were trained and assessed. Standard evaluation measurements, including Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and the coefficient of determination (R 2) were used to evaluate the model performance. The results of the experiment show that ensemble and instance-based models are much better than linear models. Random Forest Regressor was found to be the most predictive success with a test R2 of more than 93 and the KNN model right behind it indicates the effectiveness of nonlinear learning in weather prediction. The research establishes that machine learning methods, with an appropriate feature selection and pre-processing, can make up a reliable and accurate short-term weather forecasts.

In this work, a study was conducted to investigate the effects of different biodiesel blends with hydrogen peroxide additive on the performance and emissions of an internal combustion engine under various operating parameters. A CI engine was operated with diesel, four dissimilar biodiesels, and H2O2 at various proportions. The biodiesel blends used were Jatropha (D60JB30A10, D60JB34A6, D60JB38A2, D60JB40), Honge (D60HB30A10, D60HB34A6, D60HB38A2, D60HB40), Simarouba (D60SB30A10, D60SB34A6, D60SB38A2, D60SB40), and Neem (D60NB30A10, D60NB34A6, D60NB38A2, D60NB40). The engine was tested at different injection operating pressures (200, 205, and 210 bar), a speed of 1500 rpm, and a CR of 17.5:1. From the experiments conducted, it was highlighted that, under specific conditions, i.e., with an injection pressure of 205 bar, 80% load, a compression ratio of 17.5, an injection timing set at 230 before top dead center, and an engine speed of 1500 rpm, the biodiesel blends D60JB30A10, D60HB30A10, D60SB30A10, and D60NB30A10 achieved the highest brake thermal efficiencies of 24%, 23.9675%, 23.935%, and 23.9025%, respectively. Notably, the blend D60JB30A10 stood out with the highest brake thermal efficiency of 24% among these tested blends. Similarly, when evaluating emissions under the same operational conditions, the D60JB30A10 blend exhibited the lowest emissions levels: CO (0.16% Vol), CO2 (7.8% Vol), HC (59 PPM), and Smoke (60 HSU), while NOx (720 PPM) emissions showed a relative increase with higher concentrations of the hydrogen-based additive. The D60HB30A10, D60SB30A10, and D60NB30A10 blends showed higher emissions in comparison. Additionally, the study suggests that machine learning techniques can be employed to predict engine performance and emission characteristics, thereby cutting down on time and costs associated with traditional engine trials. Specifically, machine learning methods, like XG Boost, random forest regressor, decision tree regressor, and linear regression, were utilized for prediction purposes. Among these techniques, the XG Boost model demonstrated highly accurate predictions, followed by the random forest regressor, decision tree regressor, and linear regression models. The accuracy of the predictions for XG Boost model was assessed through evaluation metrics such as R2-Score (0.999), Root Mean Squared Error (0.540), Mean Squared Error (0.248), and Mean Absolute Error (0.292), which allowed for a thorough analysis of the algorithm’s performance compared to actual values.

As Monkeypox becomes a prevalent public health issue, it is important to develop advanced detection and prediction methods that will inform public health strategies that govern Monkeypox prevention. This study employs machine learning methods to analyze and predict Monkeypox case trends. In particular, features on new cases and deaths were applied to regression and classification models to predict the total number of Monkeypox cases and new case probablity. The regression models that were applied included Linear regression (LR), Decision Tree Regression (DT), Random Forest Regression (RF), Support Vector Regression (SVR), and K-Nearest Neighbor Regression (KNN), with total cases as the outcome. Among regression methods, the Random Forest Regression model performed the best with a Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 92,425,437.81 and R-squared of 0.06, indeicating moderate predictive ability. The methods were also similar to predict new cases, and once again the same algorithms were applied to classification methods, including Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), and K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) classification, and each model achieved an accuracy score of one (1.00), indicating no new cases would be missed. These results provide evidence that these are effective machine learning methods, and random forests in particular provides the best predictive capability for Monkeypox case trend analysis. The results illustrate how these models can assist data-driven decisions in public health, and evidence-based preparedness and response for future Monkeypox outbreaks.

In today's digital environment, it's reassuring to know that analysis and modelling have gone into improving security in information systems via better trust management of personnel. Security mechanisms like trust are used to deal with varying degrees of authorization within an organization. Building and testing different machine learning models of trust based on the behaviour of an organization's employee data set is the first stage in our trust study. In this work, we show trust modelling on security systems using various machine learning (ML) techniques such as Random Forest (RF), Decision Tree (RF), XG Boost (XGB) and Logistic Regression (LR). We perform the training and the testing of our ML models based on stochastic pattern recognition to classify the Trust of an employee into four classes namely, Trusted, Moderate, U ntrusted and Unexpected. Later a rigorous comparison of all these models is done based on a Model Error Rate (MER) of a recommended trust board.

In recent times, an infectious disease namely COVID-19 has affected a large number of individuals. Forecasting models have been helpful in predicting the possible number of confirmed cases, deaths, and recovery counts in the future. In this paper, the prediction of COVID-19 cumulative confirmed cases and deaths for India is analyzed based on various statistical models such as (a) time series, (b) machine learning, and (c) ensemble learning. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and Holt-Winters exponential smoothing in time series; support vector regression (SVR) and linear regression (LR) in machine learning (ML) and random forest regression in ensemble learning (EL) have been implemented for predictions. The accuracies of the trained models are evaluated using metrics such as R-squared value, root mean squared error (RMSE), mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute errors (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The proposed forecasting models can be used to monitor the rise in COVID-19 cases which can thereby be helpful for government officials to make required changes to their system.KeywordsCOVID-19 pandemic predictionTime-series forecastingEnsemble learningMachine learningSupport vector regression

Cold spray is a high-speed solid state deposition technique which allows for fabricating coatings and free standings structures by careful tuning of process parameters. However due to the complex dependencies of the process parameters a machine learning approach is utilized in this work to predict the coating properties. A machine learning (ML)-based data driven platform for determining the deposition porosity for cold sprayed deposition with the goal of reducing product cost and time has been developed. In this work, five ML models - Linear Regression, Decision Tree Regression and Random Forest Regression, XGBRegressor and LGBMRegressor are compared for the prediction of coating porosity from spray and material parameters namely Heat Capacity Ratio of carrier gas, Processing Gas Temperature, Processing gas pressure, Standoff Distance, Average Powder Diameter, Powder Material Density, and the Substrate density. A total number of 227 data sets were extracted from an extensive literature survey on cold spray deposition of metal/alloy powders which were used to train the ML models. The data analysis showed strong and weak correlations of several processing parameters with the coating porosity. The processing gas temperature and pressure have a negative and average powder diameter has a positive correlation with the deposition porosity. The coating porosities of 10 unknown sets (which were not included in the training or the validation data sets) of processing parameters predicted by the trained algorithms were compared with each other. Decision Tree regression algorithm showed the most appropriate predictions with R2 Fit of 0.75 and MAE of 2.93, while the Linear Regression model did the worst predictions with R2 Fit of 0.27 and MAE of 5.064.

The current study evaluates the performance of three machine learning models—Decision Trees, Random Forest, and Linear Regression—applied to aquaculture data to mitigate risks in aquaculture management. The performances of these models are analyzed and properly demonstrated using metrics including the Mean Squared Error (MSE), R-squared (R2), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and Concordance Index (C-index). The Random Forest model achieved the highest prediction accuracy among all machine learning models, followed by Linear Regression and the Decision Trees. The scatter plot for Linear Regression demonstrates good predictive accuracy for mid-range values. However, it shows significant deviations at the extremes, indicating that the model struggles to capture the full range of variability in the data. The bar chart of coefficients pinpoints the variables with the greatest impact on the predictions, providing suggestions for potential areas that can be improved and providing model interpretability. Future work could incorporate more predictive statistics models focusing on improving the models for extreme values by assessing non-linear models, feature engineering methods, and expanding research into less influential variables. The results greatly impact several sections, including aquaculture management, policy-making, and operational strategies, providing valuable insights for stakeholders and decision-makers. Apache Spark was used for data processing and machine learning model implementation; Apache Cassandra was also used for data storage, ensuring efficient large dataset management and SQL tools for structured data handling; Oracle VM VirtualBox for cross-platform virtualization; and Spark Connector was also used.

The shear behaviour of Ultra High-Performance Fiber Reinforced Concrete (UHPFRC) is complex due to fiber contributions alongside conventional reinforcement and concrete effects. This paper presents a novel Machine Learning (ML) approach to predict the shear capacity of UHPFRC beams, offering an alternative to conventional empirical and analytical methods. A database of 282 experimental data points was used to train multiple ML models, including Support Vector Regression (SVR), k-Nearest Neighbour (kNN), Decision Tree Regressor (DTR), Random Forest Regressor (RFR), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR), Light Gradient Boosting Regressor (LGBR), and Extreme Gradient Boosting Regressor (XGBR). Among these, boosting-based models performed best, with XGBR achieving the highest accuracy with an R 2 score of 0.91. Further, a feature importance analysis identified the shear span-to-depth ratio as the most influential parameter on the shear capacity, with longitudinal and transverse reinforcement ratios also playing key roles. A SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) analysis was conducted, offering an interpretable framework for understanding the contribution of each feature to the model’s prediction. This analysis further clarified feature contributions, identifying optimal parameter ranges for shear capacity. This data-driven approach bridges empirical methods and computational modelling enhancing confidence in ML-based predictions and guiding efficient UHPFRC design.

The rapid spread of contagious diseases poses a colossal threat to human existence. Presently, the emergence of coronavirus COVID-19 which has rightly been declared a global pandemic resulting in so many deaths, confusion as well as huge economic losses is a challenge. It has been suggested by the World Health Organization (WHO) in conjunction with different Government authorities of the world and non-governmental organizations, that efforts to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic should rely principally on measures such as social distancing, identification of infected persons, tracing of possible contacts as well as effective isolation of such person(s) for subsequent medical treatment. The aim of this study is to provide a framework for monitoring Movements of Pandemic Disease Patients and predicting their next geographical locations given the recent trend of infected COVID-19 patients absconding from isolation centres as evidenced in the Nigerian case. The methodology for this study, proposes a system architecture incorporating GPS (Global Positioning System) and Assisted-GPS technologies for monitoring the geographical movements of COVID-19 patients and recording of their movement Trajectory Datasets on the assumption that they are assigned with GPS-enabled devices such as smartphones. Accordingly, fifteen (15) participants (patients) were selected for this study based on the criteria of residency and business activity location. The ensuing participants movements generated 157, 218 Trajectory datasets during a period of 3 weeks. With this dataset, mining of the movement trace, Stay Points (hot spots), relationships, and the prediction of the next probable geographical location of a COVID-19 patient was realized by the application of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Data Mining techniques such as supervised Machine Learning (ML) algorithms (i.e., Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN), Decision Tree Regression (DTR), Random Forest Regression (RFR), Gradient Boosting Regression (GBR), and eXtreme Gradient Boosting regression(XGBR) as well as density-based clustering methods (i.e., DBSCAN) for the computation of Stay Points (hot spots) of COVID-19 patient. The result of this study showed clearly that it is possible to determine the Stay Points (hot spots) of a COVID-19 patient. In addition, this study demonstrated the possibility of predicting the next probable geographical location of a COVID-19 patient. Correspondingly, Six Machine Learning models (i.e., MLR, kNN, DTR, RFR, GBR, and XGBR) were compared for efficiency, in determining the next probable location of a COVID-19 patient. The result showed that the DTR model performed better compared to other models (i.e., MLR, kNN, RFR, GBR, XGBR) based on four evaluation matrices (i.e., ACCURACY, MAE, MSE, and R2) used. It is recommended that less developed Countries consider adopting this framework as a policy initiative for implementation at this burgeoning phase of COVID-19 infection and beyond. The same applies to the developed Countries. There is indication that GPS Trajectory dataset and Machine Learning algorithms as applied in this paper, appear to possess the potential of performing optimally in a real-life situation of monitoring a COVID-19 patient. This paper is unique given its ability to predict the next probable location of a COVID-19 patient. In the review of extant literature, prediction of the next probable location of a COVID-19 patient was not in evidence using the same Machine Learning algorithms.

Coastal aquifers are vital for sustaining ecosystems and providing freshwater for agriculture and domestic use. However, rising groundwater salinity in these regions demands innovative approaches for accurate modeling and prediction. In recent decades, machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) techniques have been extensively used across various water resource management fields, often yielding promising outcomes. This review examines the growing usage of ML and DL techniques in modeling groundwater salinity in coastal aquifers. The analysis is based on 104 peer-reviewed journal articles including the review articles indexed in PubMed, ScienceDirect, Google Scholar, Scopus, and SpringerLink using keywords like "saltwater intrusion", "machine learning", “deep learning”, and "groundwater salinity". The review discusses recent advancements, challenges, and future directions for improving ML model accuracy and applicability. Studies reveal an increasing reliance on ML techniques to predict groundwater salinity and manage seawater intrusion across various coastal geological settings. Researchers have employed a range of ML models, from traditional methods like Artificial Neural Networks and Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference Systems to advanced DL-based models like Convolutional Neural Networks and Long Short-Term Memory Networks, often using ensemble methods to enhance accuracy. Key findings include the top-tier output of ensemble and optimized models, including Random Forest and Grasshopper Optimization Algorithm-XGBoost. These studies highlight the importance of model selection, input variable ranking, and computational efficiency, demonstrating ML's global relevance in environmental management. The review highlights the prospects of ML, DL, and ensemble models to redefine groundwater management in coastal aquifers, offering more effective and sustainable solutions to the challenges posed by groundwater salinity and saltwater intrusion. Future advancements will focus on further integrating DL, explainable artificial intelligence, and ensemble approaches, along with other innovative techniques, to explore sparsely studied variables, model new or unique study areas, and apply ML methods for managing groundwater salinity.

In this paper, the growing significance of data analysis in manufacturing environments is exemplified through a review of relevant literature and a generic framework to aid the ease of adoption of regression-based supervised learning in manufacturing environments. To validate the practicality of the framework, several regression learning techniques are applied to an open-source multi-stage continuous-flow manufacturing process data set to typify inference-driven decision-making that informs the selection of regression learning methods for adoption in real-world manufacturing environments. The investigated regression learning techniques are evaluated in terms of their training time, prediction speed, predictive accuracy (R-squared value), and mean squared error. In terms of training time (TT), k-NN20 (k-Nearest Neighbour with 20 neighbors) ranks first with average and median values of 4.8 ms and 4.9 ms, and 4.2 ms and 4.3 ms, respectively, for the first stage and second stage of the predictive modeling of the multi-stage continuous-flow manufacturing process, respectively, over 50 independent runs. In terms of prediction speed (PS), DTR (decision tree regressor) ranks first with average and median values of 5.6784×106 observations per second (ob/s) and 4.8691×106 observations per second (ob/s), and 4.9929×106 observations per second (ob/s) and 5.8806×106 observations per second (ob/s), respectively, for the first stage and second stage of the predictive modeling of the multi-stage continuous-flow manufacturing process, respectively, over 50 independent runs. In terms of R-squared value (R2), BR (bagging regressor) ranks first with average and median values of 0.728 and 0.728, respectively, over 50 independent runs, for the first stage of the predictive modeling of the multi-stage continuous-flow manufacturing process, and RFR (random forest regressor) ranks first with average and median values of 0.746 and 0.746, respectively, over 50 independent runs, for the second stage of the predictive modeling of the multi-stage continuous-flow manufacturing process. In terms of mean squared error (MSE), BR (bagging regressor) ranks first with average and median values of 2.7 and 2.7, respectively, over 50 independent runs, for the first stage of the predictive modeling of the multi-stage continuous-flow manufacturing process, and RFR (random forest regressor) ranks first with average and median values of 3.5 and 3.5, respectively, over 50 independent runs, for the second stage of the predictive modeling of the multi-stage continuous-flow manufacturing process. All methods are further ranked inferentially using the statistics of their performance metrics to identify the best method(s) for the first and second stages of the predictive modeling of the multi-stage continuous-flow manufacturing process. A Wilcoxon rank sum test is then used to statistically verify the inference-based rankings. DTR and k-NN20 have been identified as the most suitable regression learning techniques given the multi-stage continuous-flow manufacturing process data used for experimentation.

Systematic literature review of machine learning based software development effort estimation models