Prediction Model of Bus Arrival Time for Real-Time Applications

Vehicle arrival time is one of the most important factors of intelligent transportation systems (ITS). Accurate transit travel information is important because it attracts additional customers and increases the satisfaction of transit users. A passenger waiting for a train or bus, a person waiting for a cab, a customer waiting for a courier to come to his/her home to pickup or deliver a package, a business office waiting for a truck for goods and a home user waiting for his/her shipment for which he/she did online shopping are a few examples of how important vehicle arrival time is in different areas of life. Most companies are investing a lot of money to improve their systems for better, faster and reliable customer service. As the cost of ITS components have decreased, the automatic vehicle location (AVL) system, which is one component of ITS, has become more widely used. Many transit agencies use an AVL system to track their vehicles in real-time. Tracking systems technology was made possible by the integration of three technologies: global positioning system (GPS), global system for mobile communication (GSM) and the geographic information system (GIS). This project shows detailed research in the area of automatic vehicle location and implements a low cost vehicle tracking system using GPS and GPRS. The system reads the current position, speed and direction using GPS, the data is sent via GPRS service from a GSM network to a server using TCP/IP protocol and the server saves this information to the database on a regular time interval. The web-based application then uses this data and calculates the approximate arrival time. The system allows a user to view the present position of the vehicle using Google Maps and calculates the arrival time. Also, bus location can be monitored in real time by route supervisors. This will allow supervisors to make better service adjustment decisions because they will be able to see how the route is operating. The test bed was a bus route running in the downtown of Toronto.

Washington, DC is ranked second among cities in terms of highest public transit commuters in the United States, with approximately 9% of the working population using the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA) Metrobuses to commute. Deducing accurate travel times of these metrobuses is an important task for transit authorities to provide reliable service to its patrons. This study, using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), developed prediction models for transit buses to assist decision-makers to improve service quality and patronage. For this study, we used six months of Automatic Vehicle Location (AVL) and Automatic Passenger Counting (APC) data for six Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA) bus routes operating in Washington, DC. We developed regression models and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models for predicting travel times of buses for different peak periods (AM, Mid-Day and PM). Our analysis included variables such as number of served bus stops, length of route between bus stops, average number of passengers in the bus, average dwell time of buses, and number of intersections between bus stops. We obtained ANN models for travel times by using approximation technique incorporating two separate algorithms: Quasi-Newton and Levenberg-Marquardt. The training strategy for neural network models involved feed forward and errorback processes that minimized the generated errors. We also evaluated the models with a Comparison of the Normalized Squared Errors (NSE). From the results, we observed that the travel times of buses and the dwell times at bus stops generally increased over time of the day. We gathered travel time equations for buses for the AM, Mid-Day and PM Peaks. The lowest NSE for the AM, Mid-Day and PM Peak periods corresponded to training processes using Quasi-Newton algorithm, which had 3, 2 and 5 perceptron layers, respectively. These prediction models could be adapted by transit agencies to provide the patrons with accurate travel time information at bus stops or online.

Hairiness is a very important yarn quality parameter for high speed weaving. This paper presents a comparative analysis of two modeling methodologies for the prediction of ring and rotor yarn hairiness. Cotton fibre properties measured by a high volume instrument (HVI) and yarn count have been used as inputs for artificial neural network (ANN) and linear regression models. The prediction accuracy for both of the models is found to be good as the correlation coefficient is higher than 0.92 and mean absolute error is less than 4%. However, ANN models have an edge over the regression model particularly for ring yarn hairiness prediction. The importance of the cotton fibre properties on yarn hairiness has also been analysed by the developed ANN and regression models. For ring spun yarns, the ranking of cotton fibre properties given by the ANN and regression models are generally in agreement although some disparities exist in the ranking of length properties. Both models yield almost identical ranking of cotton fibre properties for rotor yarn hairiness.

Monthly river flow forecasting using artificial neural network and support vector regression models coupled with wavelet transform

Between 1967 and 1997, transit agencies in 20 cities installed automatic vehicle location (AVL) systems to improve safety, efficiency, and quality of service. The bus AVL system typically provides a means of tracking individual buses for fleet management. More recently, the AVL data have also been used to develop algorithms to predict bus arrival time, estimate link travel time, and detect incidents. Other traffic management and control applications are also being explored. Therefore, the availability of a simulation capable of mimicking a bus location system that reports vehicle location at regular, prespecified intervals is becoming increasingly important. CORSIM, an integrated freeway and surface street traffic simulation model, also simulates buses on prespecified routes and stations for given dwell time distributions and frequency of service. However, very little has been reported about CORSIM’s bus simulation module. CORSIM’s bus route simulation module and its drawbacks are examined, and the results of an effort to compare data collected from the Denver Regional Transportation District bus AVL system and the microsimulator for a test network are presented. Bus location data from the field and the simulation were collected at regular intervals under both recurring congestion and nonrecurring congestion conditions. Linear referencing in a geographic information system was used to extract bus location data for the test network from the AVL system, and external programs were written to collect the same data from the microsimulator. Based on the bus location data, space mean speeds were estimated and compared to evaluate the performance of the model. The results are encouraging. However, several obstacles remain and they are discussed in detail.

Purpose – This paper aims to predict the needle penetration force (NPF) in denim fabrics using the artificial neural network (ANN) and multiple linear regression (MLR) models based on the effects of various sewing parameters. Design/methodology/approach – In order to design the ANN and MLR models, four parameters including fabric weight, number of fabric layers, weave pattern, and sewing needle size are taken into account as the input parameters and NPF as the output parameter. According to these parameters, 140 samples of data were resulted. Each sample was tested five times. From these 140 data (input-output data pairs), 112 were used for training the ANN and MLR models and 28 samples were used to test the performance of ANN and MLR. Also, the NPF was measured on the Instron tensile tester to simulate sewing process. Findings – The results indicated that the NPF in denim fabrics can be well predicted in terms of sewing parameters by using ANN and MLR models, in which the ANN model exhibits greater performance than MLR (RANN=0.989> RMLR=0.901). Research limitations/implications – The NPF measurement method is limited at low speed. Originality/value – Using the ANN model for forecasting NPF in denim fabrics can help the garment manufactures to produce high-quality denim products and improve the sewing process through reducing seam damage. The NPF could be also measured in the cycle loading conditions similar to sewing machine process by using a special designed tools mounted on the Instron tensile tester.

The purpose of this study was to validate the use of artificial neural network (ANN) models for predicting quality of life (QOL) after breast cancer surgery and to compare the predictive capability of ANNs with that of linear regression (LR) models. The European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire and its supplementary breast cancer measure were completed by 402 breast cancer patients at baseline and at 2 years postoperatively. The accuracy of the system models were evaluated in terms of mean square error (MSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). A global sensitivity analysis was also performed to assess the relative significance of input parameters in the system model and to rank the variables in order of importance. Compared to the LR model, the ANN model generally had smaller MSE and MAPE values in both the training and testing datasets. Most ANN models had MAPE values ranging from 4.70 to 19.96 %, and most had high prediction accuracy. The ANN model also outperformed the LR model in terms of prediction accuracy. According to global sensitivity analysis, pre-operative functional status was the best predictor of QOL after surgery. Compared with the conventional LR model, the ANN model in the study was more accurate for predicting patient-reported QOL and had higher overall performance indices. Further refinements are expected to obtain sufficient performance improvements for its routine use in clinical practice as an adjunctive decision-making tool.

Traffic Sign Recognition (TSR) system is a significant component of Intelligent Transport System (ITS) as traffic signs assist the drivers to drive more safely and efficiently. This paper represents a new approach for TSR system where detection of traffic sign is carried out using fuzzy rules based color segmentation method and recognition is accomplished using Speeded Up Robust Features(SURF) descriptor, trained by artificial neural network (ANN) classifier. In the detection step, the region of interest (sign area) is segmented using a set of fuzzy rules depending on the hue and saturation values of each pixel in the HSV color space, post processed to filter unwanted region. Finally the recognition of the traffic sign is implemented using ANN classifier upon the training of SURF features descriptor. The proposed system simulated on offline road scene images captured under different illumination conditions. The detection algorithm shows a high robustness and the recognition rate is quite satisfactory. The performance of the ANN model is illustrated in terms of cross entropy, confusion matrix and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Also, performances of some classifier such as Support Vector Machine (SVM), Decision Trees, Ensembles Learners (Adaboost) and K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) classifier are assessed with ANN approach. The simulation results illustrate that recognition using ANN model is higher than classifiers stated above.

Average delays are an example of traffic network performance measures. They can be measured at intersections to estimate the average delay per vehicle at various levels, such as intersection, approach, or lane group. On the other hand, average delays at a given route are implicitly measured by estimating the difference between free-flow travel time to the observed ones. Different methods are used to estimate travel time for a given route, such as floating car, average speed, and vehicle tracking methods. This paper focuses on developing an artificial neural networks (ANN) model to predict travel time for specific routes based on field travel time measurements and other easy to measure characteristics, that are related to geometric layouts, peak-hour periods, posted speed limits, and route lengths. Travel time data for 75 different segments located in the State of Qatar were studied. Directional travel time data were measured in three different peak periods. A total of 450 travel time values were collected and analyzed. An ANN model was trained to estimate travel time. The results show that the ANN model was able to provide a reasonable estimation of travel time using limited information. The slopes of the regression plots between observed and predicted travel time values show a clear linear trend, with slopes around 0.85, and an intercept that is around 2.0.

The generalization ability of artificial neural networks (ANNs) and M5 model tree (M5Tree) in modeling reference evapotranspiration (ET 0 ) is investigated in this study. Daily climatic data, average temperature, solar radiation, wind speed, and relative humidity from six different stations operated by California Irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS) located in two different regions of the USA were used in the applications. King-City Oasis Rd., Arroyo Seco, and Salinas North stations are located in San Joaquin region, and San Luis Obispo, Santa Monica, and Santa Barbara stations are located in the Southern region. In the first part of the study, the ANN and M5Tree models were used for estimating ET 0 of six stations and results were compared with the empirical methods. The ANN and M5Tree models were found to be better than the empirical models. In the second part of the study, the ANN and M5Tree models obtained from one station were tested using the data from the other two stations for each region. ANN models performed better than the CIMIS Penman, Hargreaves, Ritchie, and Turc models in two stations while the M5Tree models generally showed better accuracy than the corresponding empirical models in all stations. In the third part of the study, the ANN and M5Tree models were calibrated using three stations located in San Joaquin region and tested using the data from the other three stations located in the Southern region. Four-input ANN and M5Tree models performed better than the CIMIS Penman in only one station while the two-input ANN models were found to be better than the Hargreaves, Ritchie, and Turc models in two stations.

The present study was carried out using artificial neural network (ANN) model for predicting the sodium hazardness, i.e., sodium adsorption ratio (SAR), percent sodium (%Na) residual, Kelly’s ratio (KR), and residual sodium carbonate (RSC) in the groundwater of the Pratapgarh district of Southern Rajasthan, India. This study focuses on verifying the suitability of water for irrigational purpose, wherein more groundwater decline coupled with water quality problems compared to the other areas are observed. The southern part of the Rajasthan State is more populated as compared to the rest of the parts. The southern part of the Rajasthan is more populated as compared to the rest of the Rajasthan, which leads to the industrialization, urbanization, and evolutionary changes in the agricultural production in the southern region. Therefore, it is necessary to propose innovative methods for analyzing and predicting the water quality (WQ) for agricultural use. The study aims to develop an optimized artificial neural network (ANN) model to predict the sodium hazardness of groundwater for irrigation purposes. The ANN model was developed using ‘nntool’ in MATLAB software. The ANN model was trained and validated for ten years (2010–2020) of water quality data. An L-M 3-layer back propagation technique was adopted in ANN architecture to develop a reliable and accurate model for predicting the suitability of groundwater for irrigation. Furthermore, statistical performance indicators, such as RMSE, IA, R, and MBE, were used to check the consistency of ANN prediction results. The developed ANN model, i.e., ANN4 (3-12-1), ANN4 (4-15-1), ANN1 (4-5-1), and ANN4 (3-12-1), were found best suited for SAR, %Na, RSC, and KR water quality indicators for the Pratapgarh district. The performance analysis of the developed model (3-12-1) led to a correlation coefficient = 1, IA = 1, RMS = 0.14, and MBE = 0.0050. Hence, the proposed model provides a satisfactory match to the empirically generated datasets in the observed wells. This development of water quality modeling using an ANN model may help to useful for the planning of sustainable management and groundwater resources with crop suitability plans as per water quality.

Multivariate regression (MVR) and different artificial neural network (ANN) models developed for optical transparency of conductive polymer nanocomposite films

BackgroundThis study aimed to develop an artificial neural network (ANN) model for predicting synchronous organ-specific metastasis in lung cancer (LC) patients.MethodsA total of 62,151 patients who diagnosed as LC without data missing between 2010 and 2015 were identified from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program. The ANN model was trained and tested on an 75/25 split of the dataset. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, area under the curve (AUC) and sensitivity were used to evaluate and compare the ANN model with the random forest model.ResultsFor distant metastasis in the whole cohort, the ANN model had metrics AUC = 0.759, accuracy = 0.669, sensitivity = 0.906, and specificity = 0.613, which was better than the random forest model. For organ-specific metastasis in the cohort with distant metastasis, the sensitivity in bone metastasis, brain metastasis and liver metastasis were 0.913, 0.906 and 0.925, respectively. The most important variable was separate tumor nodules with 100% importance. The second important variable was visceral pleural invasion for distant metastasis, while histology for organ-specific metastasis.ConclusionsOur study developed a “two-step” ANN model for predicting synchronous organ-specific metastasis in LC patients. This ANN model may provide clinicians with more personalized clinical decisions, contribute to rationalize metastasis screening, and reduce the burden on patients and the health care system.

ABSTRACTStatistical methods such as Poisson distribution, negative binomial regression (NB), and zero inflated negative binomial regression (ZINB) have generally been used in road safety studies to establish the complex relationships between variables. Over the last few years, the artificial neural networks (ANN) model has also been used. The ANN model does not have any prior limitations such as the equality condition of mean and variance observed in Poisson regression. However, though the ANN model has been used in the analysis of different accident types, to the best of our knowledge, no study has used the ANN model for establishing this relationship with truck accident data on divided multilane interurban roads. In this study, the road sections D750/07–D750/15 in Ankara–Aksaray–Eregli, Turkey, were considered and truck accident data from 2008 to 2011 were analyzed using NB and ANN. The analysis show that the ANN model has lower errors and higher R2 values than NB and performs slightly better than NB for predicting the number of trucks involved in accidents. Based on a comparison of performances the study concludes, that ANN could be used as an alternative model for analyzing truck accident data on divided multilane interurban roads in Turkey.

Laparoscopic Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (LRYGB) has become the gold standard for surgical weight loss. The success of LRYGB may be measured by excess body mass index loss (%EBMIL) over 25 kg/m(2), which is partially determined by multiple patient factors. In this study, artificial neural network (ANN) modeling was used to derive a reasonable estimate of expected postoperative weight loss using only known preoperative patient variables. Additionally, ANN modeling allowed for the discriminant prediction of achievement of benchmark 50% EBMIL at 1 year postoperatively. Six hundred and forty-seven LRYGB included patients were retrospectively reviewed for preoperative factors independently associated with EBMIL at 180 and 365 days postoperatively (EBMIL180 and EBMIL365, respectively). Previously validated factors were selectively analyzed, including age; race; gender; preoperative BMI (BMI0); hemoglobin; and diagnoses of hypertension (HTN), diabetes mellitus (DM), and depression or anxiety disorder. Variables significant upon multivariate analysis (P < .05) were modeled by "traditional" multiple linear regression and an ANN, to predict %EBMIL180 and %EBMIL365. The mean EBMIL180 and EBMIL365 were 56.4 ± 16.5 % and 73.5 ± 21.5%, corresponding to total body weight losses of 25.7 ± 5.9% and 33.6 ± 8.0%, respectively. Upon multivariate analysis, independent factors associated with EBMIL180 included black race (B = -6.3%, P < .001), BMI0 (B = -1.1%/unit BMI, P < .001), and DM (B = -3.2%, P < .004). For EBMIL365, independently associated factors were female gender (B = 6.4%, P < .001), black race (B = -6.7%, P < .001), BMI0 (B = -1.2%/unit BMI, P < .001), HTN (B = -3.7%, P = .03), and DM (B = -6.0%, P < .001). Pearson r(2) values for the multiple linear regression and ANN models were 0.38 (EBMIL180) and 0.35 (EBMIL365), and 0.42 (EBMIL180) and 0.38 (EBMIL365), respectively. ANN prediction of benchmark 50% EBMIL at 365 days generated an area under the curve of 0.78 ± 0.03 in the training set (n = 518) and 0.83 ± 0.04 (n = 129) in the validation set. Available at https://redcap.vanderbilt.edu/surveys/?s=3HCR43AKXR, this or other ANN models may be used to provide an optimized estimate of postoperative EBMIL following LRYGB.