Predictive environmental modeling for air quality assessment via machine learning techniques

This article uses machine learning techniques as fuzzy and neuro-fuzzy ANFISs, to develop and compare prediction models capable of relating pregnant women’s exposure to air pollutants, such as Nitrogen Dioxide and Particulate Matter, the mother’s age, and the number of prenatal consultations to the incidence of premature birth. In the current literature, studies can be found that relate prematurity to the exposure of pregnant women to NO2, O3, and PM10; to Toluene and benzene, mainly in the window 5 to 10 days before birth; and to PM10 in the week before birth. Both models used logistic regression to quantify the effects of pollutants as a result of premature birth. Datasets from Brazil—Departamento de Informatica do Sistema Único de Saúde (DATASUS) and Companhia Ambiental do Estado de São Paulo (CETESB)—were used, covering the period from 2016 to 2018 and comprising women living in the city of São José dos Campos (SP), Brazil. In order to evaluate and compare the different techniques used, evaluation metrics were calculated, such as correlation (r), coefficient of determination (R2), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Square Error (MSE), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). These metrics are widely used in the literature due to their ability to evaluate the robustness and efficiency of prediction models. For the RMSE, MAPE, MSE, and MAE metrics, lower values indicate that prediction errors are smaller, demonstrating better model accuracy and confidence. In the case of (r) and R2, a positive and strong result indicates alignment and better performance between the real and predicted data. The neuro-fuzzy ANFIS model showed superior performance, with a correlation (r) of 0.59, R2 = 0.35, RMSE = 2.83, MAPE = 5.35%, MSE = 8.00, and MAE = 1.70, while the fuzzy model returned results of r = 0.20, R2 = 0.04, RMSE = 3.29, MSE = 10.81, MAPE = 6.67%, and MAE = 2.01. Therefore, the results from the ANFIS neuro-fuzzy system indicate greater prediction capacity and precision in relation to the fuzzy system. This superiority can be explained by integration with neural networks, allowing data learning and, consequently, more efficient modeling. In addition, the findings obtained in this study have potential for the formulation of public health policies aimed at reducing the number of premature births and promoting improvements in maternal and neonatal health.

Urban air quality index forecasting using multivariate convolutional neural network based customized stacked long short-term memory model

Prediction of any currency is performed for identifying and quantifying uncertainties, estimating their impact on results with real-time market value. In this paper, the Bayesian regularization artificial neural network (BRANN) and Levenberg–Marquardt artificial neural network (LMANN) are compared in terms of their prediction abilities. Four cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Bitcoin cash, Litecoin, and Ripple price have been taken for comparing their prediction capabilities. The BRANN and LMANN are found suitable for the prediction because both models are used for prediction of time series data and do not depend on any historical features like trends or seasonality. They provide their prediction based on training data. The network outputs are compared in terms of mean percentage error. It is found by experiment that BRANN gives less error than LMANN for large size data. But the performance of both neural networks is less same for small size data.

Globally, wind energy if properly harnessed, could serve as a source of energy generation in Africa. This study compared the performance of two Machine Learning (ML) algorithms (Linear regression and Random Forest) in predicting wind speed in five major cities in Africa (Yaoundé, Pretoria, Nairobi, Cairo and Abuja). Wind data were collected between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2022, using the Solar Radiation Data Archive. The data preprocessing was carried out with 80% of the data used for training and 20% for validation. The performance of these ML algorithms was evaluated using Mean Square Error (MSE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and coefficient of determination (R2). The result shows that Nairobi (3.814795 m/s) closely followed by Cairo (3.606453 m/s) has the highest mean wind speed while Yaoundé (1.090512 m/s) has the lowest. Based on the performance metrics used, the two Machine Learning algorithms were competitive. Still, the Linear Regression (LR) algorithm outperformed the Random Forest Algorithm in predicting wind speed in all the selected major African cities. In Yaoundé (RMSE = 0.3892, MAE= 0.3001, MAPE =0.5030), Pretoria (RMSE=1.2339, MAE=0.9480, MAPE=0.7450) Nairobi (RMSE= 0.4223, MAE =0.6499, MAPE =0.1872), Nairobi (RMSE=0.6499, MAE=0.5171, MAPE =0.1872), Cairo (RMSE =1.0909, MAE =0.8544, MAPE =0.3541) and Abuja (RMSE = 0.70245, MAE =0.5441, MAPE= 0.4515) the Linear regression algorithms was found to outperformed Random Forest Regression. Therefore, the Linear regression algorithm is more reliable in predicting wind speed compared with the Random Forest regression.

With the continuous progress of human production and life, air quality has become the focus of attention. In this paper, Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanxi, Shandong and Henan provinces were taken as the study area, where there are 58 air quality monitoring stations from which daily and monthly data are obtained. Firstly, the temporal characteristics of the air quality index (AQI) are explored. Then, the spatial distribution of the AQI is mapped by the inverse distance weighted (IDW) method, the ordinary kriging (OK) method and the Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) method. Additionally, cross-validation is utilized to evaluate the mapping results of these methods with two indexes: mean absolute error and root mean square interpolation error. Furthermore, the correlation analysis of meteorological factors, including precipitation anomaly percentage, precipitation, mean wind speed, average temperature, average water vapor pressure and average relative humidity, potentially affecting the AQI was carried out on both daily and monthly scales. In the study area and period, AQI shows a clear periodicity, although overall, it has a downward trend. The peak of AQI appeared in November, December and January. BME interpolation has a higher accuracy than OK. IDW has the maximum error. Overall, the AQI of winter (November), spring (February) is much worse than summer (May) and autumn (August). Additionally, the air quality has improved during the study period. The most polluted areas of air quality are concentrated in Beijing, the southern part of Tianjin, the central-southern part of Hebei, the central-northern part of Henan and the western part of Shandong. The average wind speed and average relative humidity have real correlation with AQI. The effect of meteorological factors such as wind, precipitation and humidity on AQI is putative to have temporal lag to different extents. AQI of cities with poor air quality will fluctuate greater than that of others when weather changes and has higher correlation with meteorological factors.

Air quality, both indoors and outdoors, is crucial for public health as it affects respiratory conditions and overall well-being. Machine learning (ML) techniques offer innovative solutions for monitoring and predicting air quality. However, choosing the right ML algorithms and evaluation metrics is essential for creating accurate air quality prediction models, as these choices directly impact the accuracy and reliability of the results. This study aims to explore and summarize the literature on the use of ML techniques in predicting and optimizing air quality, addressing the urgent issue of air pollution. The review analyzed papers from two electronic databases, namely Scopus and Science Direct. Information on ML techniques for predicting air quality and identifying the main sources of pollution was extracted from 26 studies. The study focuses on common ML techniques employed in air quality prediction, including classification, deep learning, regression, ensemble learning, and combinations of regression and deep learning. It also identifies the evaluation metrics used to assess the performance of these models, such as recall, root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and coefficient of determination (R2). By synthesizing existing knowledge, this study provides a comprehensive understanding of the metrics researchers use to measure the overall effectiveness of ML algorithms. It serves as a benchmark for future research and guides the selection of appropriate evaluation metrics in the field of air quality prediction.

A CNN encoder decoder LSTM model for sustainable wind power predictive analytics

Forecasting stock prices has always been a complex and challenging task due to its high volatility, noise in data, and abrupt price fluctuations caused by different factors. Traditional approaches, such as quantitative, fundamental, and technical analysis, often struggle to accurately predict stock price movements due to their difficulty in processing non-linear data. The evolution of machine learning, particularly neural network models, opened new opportunities for improving prediction accuracy by handling non-linear and multidimensional data with high effectiveness. This study focuses on evaluating and comparing three neural network architectures, in which the last is a combination of the first two - Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and a hybrid CNN-LSTM model, for forecasting stock prices. Using ten years of historical stock data, taken for Apple Inc. (AAPL) stocks as an example, ranging from 2015 to 2025, the models were trained and tested on key performance metrics such as Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and R². Results show that while both CNN and LSTM models show good performance individually, the hybrid CNN-LSTM model can significantly outperform them, achieving the highest accuracy with the lowest error rates. By combining the strengths of CNN for feature extraction and LSTM for temporal sequence processing, the hybrid model effectively captures complex patterns in stock price movements. By iterating over the types of layers to use, we came to the conclusion, that by combining both models into one hybrid model, some layers, like one CNN layer, and one LSTM layer should be removed. This research demonstrates the potential of hybrid neural network models in financial time-series forecasting and comprehensively analyzes their advantages over non-hybrid models.

In the construction of ultra-high voltage (UHV) transformation substations, mass concrete is highly susceptible to temperature-induced cracking due to thermal gradients arising from the disparity between internal hydration heat and external environmental conditions. Such cracks can severely compromise the structural integrity and load-bearing capacity of foundations, making accurate temperature prediction and effective thermal control critical challenges in engineering practice. To address these challenges and enable real-time monitoring and dynamic regulation of temperature evolution, this study proposes a novel hybrid forecasting model named CPO-VMD-SSA-Transformer-GRU for predicting temperature behavior in mass concrete. First, sine wave simulations with varying sample sizes were conducted using three models: Transformer-GRU, VMD-Transformer-GRU, and CPO-VMD-SSA-Transformer-GRU. The results demonstrate that the proposed CPO-VMD-SSA-Transformer-GRU model achieves superior predictive accuracy and exhibits faster convergence toward theoretical values. Subsequently, four performance metrics were evaluated: Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Coefficient of Determination (R2). The model was then applied to predict temperature variations in mass concrete under laboratory conditions. For the univariate time series at Checkpoint 1, the evaluation metrics were MAE: 0.033736, MSE: 0.0018812, RMSE: 0.036127, and R2: 0.98832; at Checkpoint 2, the values were MAE: 0.016725, MSE: 0.00091304, RMSE: 0.019114, and R2: 0.96773. In addition, the proposed model was used to predict the temperature in the rising stage, indicating high reliability in capturing nonlinear and high-dimensional thermal dynamics in the whole construction process. Furthermore, the model was extended to multivariate time series to enhance its practical applicability in real-world concrete construction. At Checkpoint 1, the corresponding metrics were MAE: 0.56293, MSE: 0.34035, RMSE: 0.58339, and R2: 0.95414; at Checkpoint 2, they were MAE: 0.85052, MSE: 0.78779, RMSE: 0.88757, and R2: 0.91385. These results indicate significantly improved predictive performance compared to the univariate configuration, thereby further validating the accuracy, stability, and robustness of the multivariate CPO-VMD-SSA-Transformer-GRU framework. The model effectively captures complex temperature fluctuation patterns under dynamic environmental and operational conditions, enabling precise, reliable, and adaptive temperature forecasting. This comprehensive analysis establishes a robust methodological foundation for advanced temperature prediction and optimized thermal management strategies in real-world civil engineering applications.

Evaluation of artificial neurocomputing algorithms and their metacognitive robustness in predictive modeling of fuel consumption rates during tillage

Accurate prediction of agricultural yield is extremely important to ensure food security and cope with the challenges created by climate change and natural disasters. Forecasting agricultural yield is a challenging task due to the complex nature of variables (fertiliser, rainfall, temperature and others) that affect agricultural production. This study employs six supervised machine learning algorithms: Support Vector Machine (SVM), Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to build a predictive model using 49 years of historical data (1973-2021) on paddy, wheat, and maize. Model performance was evaluated using Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and Root Mean Squared Error (rMSE). Results show that DT and RF models are the most precise with MSE 1% to 5%, MAE 8% to 21%, followed by SVM and CNN. Key predictors of crop yield include area cultivated, capital expenditure, banking expansion, rainfall, temperature, and fertilizers, while irrigation and road network were less significant. The study recommends that farmers prioritize commercial farming, agricultural equipment, and timely availability of fertilizer for application. The Government of Nepal (GoN) should redirect subsidies towards agricultural mechanization, ensure timely supply of fertilizer, and expand banking services in agricultural areas.

The objective of this study is to compare the predictive ability of Bayesian regularization with Levenberg–Marquardt Artificial Neural Networks. To examine the best architecture of neural networks, the model was tested with one-, two-, three-, four-, and five-neuron architectures, respectively. MATLAB (2011a) was used for analyzing the Bayesian regularization and Levenberg–Marquardt learning algorithms. It is concluded that the Bayesian regularization training algorithm shows better performance than the Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm. The advantage of a Bayesian regularization artificial neural network is its ability to reveal potentially complex relationships, meaning it can be used in quantitative studies to provide a robust model.

A hybrid of smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD) and Levenberg‐ Marquardt artificial neural network (LM‐ANN) was used as an efficient approach (SCAD‐LM‐ANN) in the ANN‐based quantitative structure–activity relationship (QSAR) studies. The proposed technique (SCAD‐LM‐ANN) exploits the useful shrinkage nature of SCAD in the reduction of high dimensional data prior to modeling by the robust LM‐ANN method. The performance of the method was examined by establishing a QSAR model between about 3224 Dragon‐derived descriptors and biological activities (pEC50) for a set of thioacetamide/acetanilide derivatives as HIV inhibitors. SCAD method with the tenfold random splitting of data was applied to the data set in the absence of compounds in the external test set. A number of 11 descriptors were selected at a λ with the lowest cross‐validation error (λmin). The selected descriptors were used as inputs of the LM‐ANN modeling method. All parameters affecting model performance were optimized, and the LM‐ANN model with the architecture of 5‐5‐1 was selected as the optimal QSAR model. Several statistical parameters such as determination coefficient (R2) and mean square error (MSE) were calculated for the predicted pEC50 values for the external test set and the whole data set through the leave one out (LOO) technique. The results ( = 0.92, MSEtest = 0.12, = 0.81, and MSELOO = 0.12) prove the generalizability and predictability of the proposed SCAD‐LM‐ANN model. According to the established relationship in the recommended QSAR model, new derivatives were designed and suggested as new active HIV inhibitors for further studies. The accuracy of the suggested compounds was studied and confirmed by analyzing the ligand–receptor (LR) interactions derived from the molecular docking studies.

Air temperature (T, °C), relative humidity (RH, %), and global solar radiation (G, MJ.m-2 ) have been measured in the meteorological station at South Valley University (SVU) at Qena, Egypt, from 2000 to 2013, while the total column ozone (TCO, DU) is downloaded from Giovanni's website. T, RH, and TCO are important meteorological parameters, and they are useful to estimate the missing data of the global solar radiation (G), as global solar radiation is desirable for electricity generation applications and for agriculture. Qena is a subtropical region in Upper Egypt, as it's characterized by clear weather most days of the year, and it's very hot in the summer and cold in the winter. The meteorological station at South Valley University (SVU) stopped measuring the G. The linear regression equation and the most important statistical indices are used in this paper such as, the determination coefficient (R2 ), the mean absolute error (MAE), the mean absolute bias error (MABE), the mean square error (MSE), the root mean square error (RMSE), the mean percentage error (MPE), the mean bias error (MBE), the model efficiency (ME), and the agreement index (d). For verification of the empirical models' efficiency, the data of a new period has used, 2013, and the results of the models were excellent and valid for estimating the missing data, as R2 was more than 0.92 in all models but it was near one in models 1 and 4. MAE was close to zero for all models. MBE, MPE, and MABE were close to zero for all models except model 3. Model 1 was the best one, as, R2 , MAE, MABE, MSE, RMSE, MAPE, d, ME, and MPE were 0.9883, 0.0193, 0.383, 0.2303, 0.4799, 1.927, 0.9979, 0.992, and 0.2932, respectively

Air quality index forecast in Beijing based on CNN-LSTM multi-model