Probabilistic Stability Assessment for Active Distribution Grids

Revetments protect waterways or flood defenses against erosion from waves and currents. In Germany a high percentage of about 7235 km of waterways is secured by revetments. Like many stakeholders of various infrastructures, the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration increasingly aims for a more economic and ecological design and maintenance strategy. Thus, new methodologies must be introduced that relate the structural condition of the revetment to resulting consequences such as required maintenance. In this paper we investigate the correlation of maintenance and revetment stability. Using the example of German inland waterways, maintenance measures conducted over at least six years are correlated with a deterministic and a probabilistic stability assessment. To account for realistic traffic loads, the stability assessment employs field measurements which provide data on ship-induced waves. It was found that at least a linear correlation between revetment stability and maintenance must be assumed. A comparison between the deterministic and the probabilistic stability assessment and thereby obtained correlations shows that less maintenance is predicted with the deterministic stability assessment. Particularly for small sample sizes and small probabilities of failure, the probabilistic approach should be favored over the deterministic approach to account for various uncertainties. In the case that only maintenance is of relevance for design considerations, the results of the probabilistic approach indicate that β = 1.3 (pf ≈ 10-1) may be a suitable annual target reliability.

For deterministic scenarios, adaptive finite element limit analysis has been successfully employed to achieve tight bounds on the ultimate load of a geotechnical structure in a much more efficient manner than a dense uniform mesh. However, no probabilistic studies have so far considered finite element limit analysis with adaptive remeshing. Therefore, this research explores the benefits of combining adaptive mesh refinement with finite element limit analysis for probabilistic applications. The outcomes indicate that in order to achieve tight bounds on probabilistic results (such as the probability of failure), the ultimate load in each individual simulation (e.g. factor of safety or bearing capacity) has to be estimated with a very high level of accuracy and this can be achieved more economically using adaptive mesh refinement. The benefits, assessed here for undrained conditions, are expected to be much more pronounced in the case of frictional soils and complex geometries.

Preface. Contributors. 1 The Real-Time and Study-Mode Data Environment in Modern SCADA/EMS ( Sudhir Virmani and Savu C. Savulescu ). 1.1 Introduction. 1.2 SCADA/EMS Architectures. 1.3 Integrating Stability Applications with the SCADA/EMS. 1.4 References. 2 Overview of Key Stability Concepts Applied for Real-Time Operations ( Savu C. Savulescu ). 2.1 Introduction. 2.2 In Search of the Stability Limits. 2.3 Transient and Voltage Stability Limits. 2.4 Steady-State Stability Limits. 2.5 Concluding Remarks. 2.6 References. Annex 1-1. Reactive Power Steady-State Stability Criterion dDELTAQ / dV. 3 LIPA Implementation of Real-Time Stability Monitoring in a CIM Compliant Environment ( Loris Arnold, Janos Hajagos, Susan M. Manessis, and Anie Philip ). 3.1 Introduction. 3.2 Static and Dynamic Security Assessment at LIPA. 3.3 Benchmarking the Real-Time Stability Application. 3.4 Practical Experience and Outlook. 3.5 References. 4 Real-Time Stability Monitoring at the Independent System Operator in Bosnia and Herzegovina ( Dusko Vickovic and Roland Eichler ). 4.1 Introduction. 4.2 Interim Implementation of Real-Time Stability Assessment at NOS BiH. 4.3 Real-Time Stability Assessment in the New SCADA/EMS Environment. 4.4 Conclusions and Recommendations. 4.5 References. Annex 4-1. TSL, TTC, and the Stability Envelope. Annex 4-2. Siemens Implementation of the Continuation Power Flow. 5 Experience with Real-Time Stability Assessment at Transelectrica ( Horia S. Campeanu, Cornel Erbasu, and Cornel Aldea ). 5.1 Introduction. 5.2 Security Assessment Philosophy and Criteria. 5.3 Real-Time Steady-State Stability Assessment and Monitoring. 5.4 Off-Line Stability Tools in Support of System Operations. 5.5 Conclusions and Outlook. 5.6 References. 6 Implementation of Online Dynamic Security Assessment at Southern Company ( Kip Morison, Lei Wang, Fred Howell, James Viikinsalo, and Alan Martin ). 6.1 Introduction. 6.2 DSA Implementation Fundamentals. 6.3 Transient Security Assessment Implementation at Southern Company. 6.4 Conclusions. 6.5 References. Annex 6-1. Further Details of the DSA Software and Hardware Architecture. Description of the Core DSA Software. Online DSA Implementation Using DSATools. 7 Online Security Assessment for the Brazilian System A Detailed Modeling Approach ( Jorge L. Jardim ). 7.1 Introduction. 7.2 Security Criteria and Functions. 7.3 Solution Methods and Architecture. 7.4 Practical Implementation Aspects. 7.5 User Interface And Performance. 7.6 Concluding Remarks. 7.7 Acknowledgments. 7.8 References. 8 Dynamic Network Security Analysis in a Load Dispatch Center ( Guenther Beissler, Olaf Ruhle, and Roland Eichler ). 8.1 Introduction. 8.2 Siemens Approach to Dynamic Security Assessment. 8.3 Case Studies: Challenges, Implementation Approach, and Solution Features. 8.4 References. Annex 8-1. Further Dynamic Simulation Capabilities. Time Frame for Dynamic Simulations. Simulation in the Frequency Domain. Eigenvalue and Modal Analysis. 9 Real-Time Transient Security Assessment in Australia at NEMMCO ( Stephen J. Boroczky ). 9.1 Introduction. 9.2 Transient Security Assessment at NEMMCO. 9.3 Performance and Reliability. 9.4 Experience, Benefits, and Outlook. 9.5 References. 10 Online Voltage Security Assessment in the Hellenic Interconnected System ( Costas Vournas, George Christoforidis, and Thierry Van Cutsem ). 10.1 Introduction. 10.2 The Control Center of HTSO. 10.3 Online VSA in the Hellenic System. 10.4 Use of Online VSA For Arming Load-Shedding Protection. 10.5 Conclusion. 10.6 References. Annex 10-1. Quasi-Steady-State Simulation. Principle of the QSS Approximation. Handling of Frequency in QSS Simulation. QSS Model of the Synchronous Machine and its Regulations. Numerical Integration of the QSS Model. 11 The Real-Time Supervision of Transmission Capacity in the Swedish Grid ( Lars Sandberg and Klas Rouden ). 11.1 Introduction. 11.2 Prior and Current Application Development at SVK. 11.3 Voltage Security Assessment with SPICA. 11.4 Benefiting from the Knowledge of the Current Transmission Capacity. 11.5 Additional SPICA Functionality. 11.6 Summary. Appendix A Dimo's Approach to Steady-State Stability Assessment: Methodology Overview, Numerical Example, and Algorithm Validation ( Roberto D. Molina Mylius, Martin Cassano, and Savu C. Savulescu ). A.1 Methodology Overview. A.2 Numerical Example Independent Testing of Algorithm Implementation. A.3 Benchmarking the Methodology. A.4 Conclusions. A.5 References. Appendix B SIME: A Comprehensive Approach to Transient Stability ( Mania Pavella, Daniel Ruiz-Vega, and Mevludin Glavic ). B.1 Introduction. B.2 Basic Formulation. B.3 Preventive SIME. B.4 Emergency SIME. B.5 Postface. B.6 References. Notation. Abbreviations and Acronyms. Appendix C Detection and Evaluation of Stability Constrained ( Marius Pomarleanu and Savu C. Savulescu ). C.1 Introduction. C.2 Approach. C.3 Conclusions. C.4 References. Index.

Purpose. The research aims to substantiate support parameters for underground mine workings in the conditions of fractured and seismically active masses using probabilistic stability analysis. Methods. The research is based on the integration of field engineering-geological observations, geological-structural ana-lysis, numerical modeling and probabilistic stability assessment methods. Based on the geotechnical description of oriented cores, the mass fracturing parameters (RQD, Jn, Jr, Ja) were determined, stereographic analysis using Dips software was performed and the mass quality index Q′ was calculated. Probabilistic stability analysis of wedges was conducted in the Unwedge software package, taking into account dynamic effects and seismicity coefficients up to 0.4. Scenarios without support, with roof-bolt and combined supports are discussed. Findings. It has been found that at unfavorable mine working orientation and high seismic loads, the factor of safety (FS) does not reach the design values (FS ≥ 1.5) without the use of support, which necessitates the use of combined support schemes. Originality. The novelty is in the complex application of probabilistic stability analysis taking into account real geometric and mechanical characteristics of fracturing, seismic impact and spatial anisotropy of the mass. For the first time, field data, Q′ index and Unwedge modeling have been combined for specific engineering-geological conditions to substantiate the parameters of a combined support adapted to seismically active fractured masses. Practical implications. The developed methodology can be adapted to various mining-technical conditions and helps to increase the reliability of design solutions for construction and operation of underground structures in difficult geological and seismically active areas.

This project is part of a research effort to design a hydrogen plant and its interface with a nuclear reactor. This project developed a dynamic modeling, simulation and optimization environment for nuclear hydrogen production systems. A hybrid discrete/continuous model captures both the continuous dynamics of the nuclear plant, the hydrogen plant, and their interface, along with discrete events such as major upsets. This hybrid model makes us of accurate thermodynamic sub-models for the description of phase and reaction equilibria in the thermochemical reactor. Use of the detailed thermodynamic models will allow researchers to examine the process in detail and have confidence in the accurary of the property package they use.

In a DC Microgrid, the loads are interfaced through power electronic converters. These loads behave as constant power loads (CPLs) when tightly regulated. CPLs have negative incremental impedance which may cause instability. Consequently, the stability analysis is very important to ensure the whole system stable, especially in island mode. This paper investigates the large signal stability of the DC Microgrid, considering the effects of the CPLs and the storage system. Based on mixed potential theory, the large signal stability criteria are derived, and quantitatively describe the relationship between system parameters and the stability. The proposed criteria are simple and straightforward. The power of the storage system and the negative incremental impedance of the CPLs are both taken into account to ensure stability. The results indicate the criteria could guarantee the whole system stable during large disturbances.

International Input-Output Tables as a Tool for Structured Analysis and Assessment of Stability in Russian Transport Sector

: This report describes all SBIR Phase 2 effort to validate a mathematical model mid conduct a design study of the Air Force Dynamic Environment The Dynamic Environment Simulator, or DES, is a three degree-of-freedom centrifuge operated by Armstrong Laboratories at Wright-Patterson AFB. The effort was conducted under Contract F41624-96-C-6027 through the Armstrong Laboratory and was entitled Model Validation and Design Study of the Dynamic Environment Simulator. This Phase 2 project had four primary objectives, which were to: (1) Validate the Phase 1 software model of the DES; (2) Conduct a design study of DES improvements; (3) Perform a cost/benefit analysis of the possible DES improvements; and (4) Demonstrate the commercial potential of the model and the DES.

Large signal stability means that a system can be a transition to a new stable state without losing synchronism after a large disturbance. The large signal stability problem brought by large capacity electrical loads in ac/dc independent power system is prominent, which seriously affects the dynamic security of the system. In view of modeling characteristics of ac/dc system, a generalized state space average large signal modeling method for the ac/dc independent power system in dq-coordinates is proposed. A large signal model of the ac/dc independent power system is constructed, which includes generators, inverter units, rectifying units, and dc/dc converters. The simulation results indicate that the large signal model constructed in this paper can accurately reflect the dynamic characteristics of the system under large disturbances, such as startup and sudden change in load, which is helpful to understand and improve the dynamic performance of the system under large disturbance. Furthermore, with feasibility and effectiveness, the large signal model provides convenience and possibility for the theoretical analysis of large signal stability of ac/dc independent power systems in the future.

<p>Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) is widely used to generate national seismic hazard maps, design building codes for earthquake resilient structures, determine earthquake insurance rates, and in general for the management of seismic risk. However, standard PSHA is generally based on empirical, time-independent assumptions that are simplified and not based on earthquake physics. Physics-based numerical models such as dynamic rupture simulations account for the non-linear coupling of source, path and site effects, which can be significant in their respective contributions depending on the generally complex geological environment (e.g., Wollherr et al., 2019), and could potentially complement standard PSHA. In this study we demonstrate the benefits of such an approach by modeling various rupture scenarios in the complex Húsavík–Flatey fault zone (HFFZ), Northern Iceland. The HFFZ consists of multiple right-lateral strike slip segments distributed across ~100 km. The moment accumulated on the HFF since the last major earthquake in 1872 can result in an earthquake of magnitude 6.8 to 7 (Metzger and Jonsson, 2014) posing a high risk to Húsavík’s community, flourishing tourism and heavy industry.</p><p>We perform high-resolution 3D dynamic rupture simulations using the open-source software SeisSol (www.seissol.org), which can efficiently model spontaneous earthquake rupture across complex fault networks and seismic wave propagation with high order accuracy in space and time. Our models incorporate regional topography, bathymetry, 3D subsurface structure and varying models of the complex fault network while accounting for off-fault damage.</p><p>Synthetic ground motions suggest highly heterogenous radiation patterns and intense localization of shaking in the vicinity of geometric complexities, such as fault bends or rupture transition between segments. In our models, the hypocenter location does not affect the plausible moment magnitude of large events. However, changes in rupture directivity affect the spatial distribution of ground motion significantly.  We run hundreds of dynamic rupture scenarios to generate a physics-based dynamic earthquake catalog of mechanically plausible events. Based on this, we identify a possible maximum magnitude earthquake and generate model-based ground motion prediction equations to complement standard empirical ground motion models. In addition, we use the open-source python code SHERIFs (Chartier et al., 2019) to estimate the likelihood of each rupture event, which is mainly constrained by the fault slip rate estimated and fault-to-fault (f2f) rupture scenarios that are determined by the dynamic simulations. Finally, combining the fault seismic rates and the f2f probabilities with dynamic rupture scenarios and the OpenQuake framework allows us to perform physics-based PSHA for the HFFZ, the largest strike-slip fault in Iceland.</p>

This paper examines the problem of simulating angular velocity fields that may for example, be experienced by a pilot during a supermaneuverable flight trajectory. The ability to simulate angular velocity fields has important applications in the study of certain physiological effects encountered by pilots during these unusual flight scenarios. The simulations are to be performed using a centrifuge simulator called the Dynamic Environment Simulator (DES) located in the Armstrong Laboratory of Wright-Patterson Air Force Base. Some of the kinematic issues relating to the motion control of the DES are examined in the paper. >

The rapid development of renewable energy requires transmission technology innovation. Fractional frequency transmission system (FFTS) is a promising solution for large-scale renewable energy transmission, and the stability analysis is essential for engineering application. Especially for the grid faults, these large-signal disturbances are inevitable during operation. Thus, the system-level Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy model of FFTS is proposed considering the system parameters, control strategy of modular multilevel matrix converter ( <inline-formula xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><tex-math notation="LaTeX">$M^{3}C$</tex-math></inline-formula> ) and phase locked loop in this study. Subsequently, the Lyapunov function and the large-signal stability domain of attraction (LS-DOA) are calculated expeditiously based on the proposed fuzzy model. Ultimately, the large-signal stability of FFTS is comprehensively analyzed combining with the different-frequency interaction features under grid fault conditions. Compared with the conventional method, the stability strength and affine angle indexes are proposed for quantitative analysis mathematically. The obtained influence law of the system parameters can guide the parameter optimization of FFTS effectively. The effectiveness of proposed methods is verified by the simulation-based study.

Object-oriented components for dynamic hybrid simulation of a reactive distillation process

The ability to localize a virtual auditory source was evaluated under varying levels of sustained (+G2) acceleration. Participants were required to judge the locations of virtual auditory cues located along the horizontal plane (elevation 0°) during exposure to 1.0, 1.6, 2.5, 4.0, 5.6, and 7.0 +Gz. The experiment was conducted at the Air Force Research Laboratory's Dynamic Environment Simulator - a man-rated, three-axis centrifuge. No significant increases in localization error were found between 1.0 and 5.6 +Gz; however, a significant increase did occur at the 7.0 +Gz level. In addition, the percentage of reversals did not vary as a function of +Gz level. Collectively, these results indicate that one's ability to localize virtual auditory cues is well maintained at various levels of sustained acceleration.

Differentiating responses of weather files and local climate change to explain variations in building thermal-energy performance simulations