Probabilistic Wildfire Segmentation Using Supervised Deep Generative Model from Satellite Imagery

Automated design synthesis has the potential to revolutionize the modern engineering design process and improve access to highly optimized and customized products across countless industries. Successfully adapting generative machine learning to design engineering may enable such automated design synthesis and is a research subject of great importance. We present a review and analysis of deep generative machine learning models in engineering design. Deep generative models (DGMs) typically leverage deep networks to learn from an input dataset and synthesize new designs. Recently, DGMs such as feedforward neural networks (NNs), generative adversarial networks (GANs), variational autoencoders (VAEs), and certain deep reinforcement learning (DRL) frameworks have shown promising results in design applications like structural optimization, materials design, and shape synthesis. The prevalence of DGMs in engineering design has skyrocketed since 2016. Anticipating the continued growth, we conduct a review of recent advances to benefit researchers interested in DGMs for design. We structure our review as an exposition of the algorithms, datasets, representation methods, and applications commonly used in the current literature. In particular, we discuss key works that have introduced new techniques and methods in DGMs, successfully applied DGMs to a design-related domain, or directly supported the development of DGMs through datasets or auxiliary methods. We further identify key challenges and limitations currently seen in DGMs across design fields, such as design creativity, handling constraints and objectives, and modeling both form and functional performance simultaneously. In our discussion, we identify possible solution pathways as key areas on which to target the future work.

Localization in reverberant environments remains an open challenge. Recently, supervised learning approaches have demonstrated very promising results in addressing reverberation. However, even with large data volumes, the number of labels available for supervised learning in such environments is usually small. We propose to address this issue with a semi-supervised learning (SSL) approach, based on deep generative modeling. Our chosen deep generative model, the variational autoencoder (VAE), is trained to generate the phase of relative transfer functions (RTFs) between microphones. In parallel, a direction of arrival (DOA) classifier network based on RTF-phase is also trained. The joint generative and discriminative model, deemed VAE-SSL, is trained using labeled and unlabeled RTF-phase sequences. In learning to generate and classify the sequences, the VAE-SSL extracts the physical causes of the RTF-phase (i.e., source location) from distracting signal characteristics such as noise and speech activity. This facilitates effective end-to-end operation of the VAE-SSL, which requires minimal preprocessing of RTF-phase. VAE-SSL is compared with two signal processing-based approaches, steered response power with phase transform (SRP-PHAT) and MUltiple SIgnal Classification (MUSIC), as well as fully supervised CNNs. The approaches are compared using data from two real acoustic environments - one of which was recently obtained at Technical University of Denmark specifically for our study. We find that VAE-SSL can outperform the conventional approaches and the CNN in label-limited scenarios. Further, the trained VAE-SSL system can generate new RTF-phase samples which capture the physics of the acoustic environment. Thus, the generative modeling in VAE-SSL provides a means of interpreting the learned representations. To the best of our knowledge, this paper presents the first approach to modeling the physics of acoustic propagation using deep generative modeling.

Evaluation of biogenic emissions from three different vegetation distributions in South Korea

Operational meteorological satellites generally lack reliable onboard calibration systems for solar-imaging channels. Current methods for calibrating these channels and for normalizing similar channels on contemporaneous satellite imagers typically rely on a poorly calibrated reference source. To establish a more reliable reference instrument for calibration normalization, this paper examines the use of research satellite imagers that maintain their solar-channel calibrations by using onboard diffuser systems that rely on the sun as an absolute reference. The Visible Infrared Scanner (VIRS) on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission(TRMM) satellite and the second Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR-2) on the second European Remote Sensing Satellite (ERS-2) are correlated with matched data from the eighth Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-8), the fifth Geostationary Meteorological satellite(GMS-5), and with each other to examine trends in the solar channels. VIRS data are also correlated with the Terra satellite’s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) provisional data as a preliminary assessment of their relative calibrations. As an additional check on their long-term stability, the VIRS data are compared to the relevant corresponding broadband shortwave radiances of the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) scanners on TRMM. No statistically significant trend in the calibration of the VIRS 0.65- and 1.64-mm channels could be detected from the comparisons with CERES data taken during 1998 and 2000. The VIRS-to-GOES-8 correlations revealed an annual degradation rate for the GOES-8 visible (0.67 mm) channel of ;7.5% and an initial drop of 16% in the gain from the prelaunch value. The slopes in the GOES-8 visible-channel gain trend lines derived from VIRS data taken after January 1998 and ATSR-2 data taken between October 1995 and December 1999 differed by only 1%‐2% indicating that both reference instruments are highly stable. The mean difference of 3%‐4.8% between the VIRS‐GOES-8 and ATSR-2‐GOES-8 gains is attributed to spectral differences between ATSR-2 and VIRS and to possible biases in the ATSR-2 channel-2 calibration. A degradation rate of 1.3% per year found for the GMS-5 visible channel was confirmed by comparisons with earlier calibrations. The MODIS and VIRS calibrations agreed to within 21% to 3%. Some of the differences between VIRS and the provisional MODIS radiances can be explained by spectral differences between the two instruments. The MODIS measures greater reflectance than VIRS for bright scenes. Although both VIRS and ATSR-2 provide temporally stable calibrations, it is recommended that, at least until MODIS calibrations are finalized, VIRS should be used as a reference source for normalizing operational meteorological satellite imagers because of its broader visible filter.

Uncertainty estimation in healthcare involves quantifying and understanding the inherent uncertainty or variability associated with medical predictions, diagnoses, and treatment outcomes. In this era of Artificial Intelligence (AI) models, uncertainty estimation becomes vital to ensure safe decision-making in the medical field. Therefore, this review focuses on the application of uncertainty techniques to machine and deep learning models in healthcare.A systematic literature review was conducted using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. Our analysis revealed that Bayesian methods were the predominant technique for uncertainty quantification in machine learning models, with Fuzzy systems being the second most used approach. Regarding deep learning models, Bayesian methods emerged as the most prevalent approach, finding application in nearly all aspects of medical imaging.Most of the studies reported in this paper focused on medical images, highlighting the prevalent application of uncertainty quantification techniques using deep learning models compared to machine learning models. Interestingly, we observed a scarcity of studies applying uncertainty quantification to physiological signals. Thus, future research on uncertainty quantification should prioritize investigating the application of these techniques to physiological signals.Overall, our review highlights the significance of integrating uncertainty techniques in healthcare applications of machine learning and deep learning models. This can provide valuable insights and practical solutions to manage uncertainty in real-world medical data, ultimately improving the accuracy and reliability of medical diagnoses and treatment recommendations.

Generative models emerge as promising candidates for novel sequence-data driven approaches to protein design, and for the extraction of structural and functional information about proteins deeply hidden in rapidly growing sequence databases. Here we propose simple autoregressive models as highly accurate but computationally efficient generative sequence models. We show that they perform similarly to existing approaches based on Boltzmann machines or deep generative models, but at a substantially lower computational cost (by a factor between 102 and 103). Furthermore, the simple structure of our models has distinctive mathematical advantages, which translate into an improved applicability in sequence generation and evaluation. Within these models, we can easily estimate both the probability of a given sequence, and, using the model’s entropy, the size of the functional sequence space related to a specific protein family. In the example of response regulators, we find a huge number of ca. 1068 possible sequences, which nevertheless constitute only the astronomically small fraction 10−80 of all amino-acid sequences of the same length. These findings illustrate the potential and the difficulty in exploring sequence space via generative sequence models.

This study proposes a novel approach to improve forecast accuracy and uncertainty quantification in time series forecasting through the synthesis of Machine Learning (ML) models with Dynamic Bayesian Predictive Synthesis (DBPS). We synthesize predictive distributions from three ML models—LightGBM, LSTM, and Prophet—through DBPS, notably employing Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models to estimate uncertainties for ML forecasts. Empirical analysis using meteorological data from Delhi, India, demonstrates that our proposed method outperforms individual ML models and conventional ensemble methods, achieving improvements of up to 25.2% in RMSE and 25.4% in MAE. Furthermore, evaluating predictive distributions using Log Predictive Density Ratio (LPDR) reveals superior performance to other models, indicating a more accurate capture of observational uncertainty. Analysis of DBPS weights reveals that the offsetting effect of prediction biases is one of the factors contributing to improved forecast accuracy. These findings suggest that the synthesis of ML models and DBPS enables more reliable forecasting and improved uncertainty quantification.

Enhancing estimation of water quality index using stacking machine learning techniques: The case of Southern Bug River.

Quantile regression and conditional density estimation can reveal structure that is missed by mean regression, such as multimodality and skewness. In this article, we introduce a deep learning generative model for joint quantile estimation called Penalized Generative Quantile Regression (PGQR). Our approach simultaneously generates samples from many random quantile levels, allowing us to infer the conditional distribution of a response variable given a set of covariates. Our method employs a novel variability penalty to avoid the problem of vanishing variability, or memorization, in deep generative models. Further, we introduce a new family of partial monotonic neural networks (PMNN) to circumvent the problem of crossing quantile curves. A major benefit of PGQR is that it can be fit using a single optimization, thus, bypassing the need to repeatedly train the model at multiple quantile levels or use computationally expensive cross-validation to tune the penalty parameter. We illustrate the efficacy of PGQR through extensive simulation studies and analysis of real datasets. Code to implement our method is available at https://github.com/shijiew97/PGQR.

• ML models for predicting SCM concretes compressive strength developed • Multiple datasets devised from a global dataset were used for training • Multiple ML models used in conjunction with multiple datasets for best results • Accurate prediction results obtained for all SCM concrete types studied • Prediction uncertainty bounds established by conformal prediction analysis Supplementary cementitious materials (SCM) used as partial replacements of cement can reduce carbon emissions and construction costs. The amount and types of SCM used directly influence the compressive strength of concrete, which is a crucial indicator of concrete performance. However, predicting compressive strength is challenging for SCM-based concretes due to their complex compositions, especially when multiple types of SCM are used. This study used five machine learning (ML) models, namely artificial neural network (ANN), random forest (RF), extra trees (ET), extreme gradient boosting (XGB), and adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) to predict the 28-day compressive strength of SCM concretes incorporating fly ash (FA), silica fume (SF), and ground granulated blast furnace slag (GGBFS). Firstly, a global dataset comprising 1456 data points was organized into seven individual and six combined datasets for training of the five ML models. After this, the performances of the ML models’ predictions using individual and combined datasets were compared using root mean squared error (RMSE) and coefficient of determination (R 2 ) to identify the optimal ML model-dataset configurations for each type of SCM-based concrete. It is found that in general, XGB models developed using the combined datasets demonstrated superior prediction accuracy, achieving an R² value exceeding 0.8. Both Shapley Additive Explanation (SHAP) and partial dependence plots (PDPs) were employed to illustrate the effects of input variables on compressive strength. Finally, uncertainty quantification using the Jackknife method combined with a normalized nonconformity measure was employed to provide accurate uncertainty bounds for compressive strength predictions.

PD27-01 DEVELOPMENT OF A MACHINE LEARNING (ML) MODEL TO AUTOMATICALLY AND PRECISELY IDENTIFY KIDNEY STONES FROM URETEROSCOPY VIDEO RECORDINGS

This study highlights drought forecasting for understanding the semi-arid area in India, where drought phenomena play vital role in the irrigation, drinking water supplies, and sustaining the ecological with economic balance for every nation. Therefore, drought forecasting is important for the future drought planning based on the machine learning (ML) models. Hence, The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at 3- and 6-month periods have been selected and used for future drought forecasting scenarios in area. The combinations of ten inputs SPI-1- and SPI-10 were used for predicting modeling for SPI-3 and SPI-6 timescales, that modeling developed based on the historical SPI datasets from 1989 to 2019 years. The SPI-3 and SPI-6 maximum and minimum values are shown SPI-3 (2.03 and -5.522) and SPI-6 (1.94 and -6.93). The SPI is a popular method for estimating the drought analysis and has been used everywhere at global level. The developed models have been compared with each other, with the best combination of input variables selected using subset regression models and sensitivity studies. After that, the active input parameters were used for forecasting of SPI-3 and SPI-6 values to understanding of drought in semi-arid area. The finest input variables combination have been used in the Ml models and established the novel five models such as robust linear regression, bagged trees, boosted trees, support vector regression (SVM-Linear), and Matern Gaussian Process Regression (Matern GPR) models. Such kind of models first time has been applied for the forecasting of future drought conditions. Whole models were fine and improved modeling by using hyperparameters tuning, bagging, and boosting models. Entire ML models’ accuracy was compared using different statistical metrics. Compared with five ML models accuracy, we have found that the Matern GPR model better accuracy than other ML models. The best model accuracy is R2 = 0.95 and 0.93, RMSE, MSE, MAE, MARE, and NSE values, respectively, for predicting SPI-3 and SPI-6 values in the area. Therefore, the Matern GPR model was identified as the finest ML algorithm for predicting SPI-3 and SPI-6 associated with other algorithms. This research demonstrates the Matern GPR model's efficacy in predicting multiscale SPI-3 and SPI-6 under climate variations. It can be helpful in soil and water resource conservation planning and management and understanding droughts in the entire basin areas of the country India.

Deep generative models (DGMs) have brought about a major breakthrough, as well as renewed interest, in generative latent variable models. However, DGMs do not allow for performing data-driven inference of the number of latent features needed to represent the observed data. Traditional linear formulations address this issue by resorting to tools from the field of nonparametric statistics. Indeed, linear latent variable models imposed an Indian Buffet Process (IBP) prior have been extensively studied by the machine learning community; inference for such models can been performed either via exact sampling or via approximate variational techniques. Based on this inspiration, in this paper we examine whether similar ideas from the field of Bayesian nonparametrics can be utilized in the context of modern DGMs in order to address the latent variable dimensionality inference problem. To this end, we propose a novel DGM formulation, based on the imposition of an IBP prior. We devise an efficient Black-Box Variational inference algorithm for our model, and exhibit its efficacy in a number of semi-supervised classification experiments. In all cases, we use popular benchmark datasets, and compare to state-of-the-art DGMs.

Development of the GLASS 250-m leaf area index product (version 6) from MODIS data using the bidirectional LSTM deep learning model

Synthetic data offers a promising avenue for addressing privacy, scarcity, and fairness challenges in healthcare datasets. However, there is limited evaluation of how different generation methods balance fidelity, utility, and fairness, particularly for underrepresented subgroups. This study addresses this gap by comparing representative generative modelling techniques, both probabilistic and deep approaches, that are popular in the research literature. We empirically evaluate BayesBoost, CTGAN, TVAE, CopulaGAN, and DECAF on two healthcare datasets containing numerical, binary, and categorical features. Each model’s performance is assessed along three axes: data fidelity, machine learning utility, and fairness, using Accuracy Parity, Equalised Odds, and Predictive Rate Parity. Results show that BayesBoost consistently achieved superior fidelity, utility, and fairness preservation, particularly when paired with Random Forest classifiers, achieving around 60 – 63 % higher downstream utility than GAN-based deep generative baselines (e.g., Random Forest accuracy up to 0.88 with BayesBoost versus 0.54 to − 0.55 for GAN-based methods). Deep generative models, while effective in capturing complex structures, often degraded fairness, especially for underrepresented groups, with equalised odds deviating by over 100 % from the ideal parity value of 1.0 in some settings. The Variational Autoencoder outperformed other deep generative models in fairness preservation, especially for equalised odds, although with some reduction in fidelity and utility. Overall, these findings suggest that synthetic data generation for healthcare must move beyond fidelity evaluations to explicitly assess fairness and subgroup impacts, with probabilistic models such as BayesBoost showing strong potential for ethical deployment, while deep generative models require further adaptation for fairness-sensitive applications.