Prognostication of Shortwave Radiation Using an Improved No-Tuned Fast Machine Learning

Predicting dam inflow is critical for human life safety, water resource management, and hydroelectric power generation. While machine learning (ML) models address complex, nonlinear hydrological problems, quantum machine learning (QML) offers greater potential to overcome classical computational limits. This study compares a hybrid quantum neural network (HQNN) with the following two classical models: bidirectional CNN-LSTM and support vector regression (SVR). These models were evaluated to predict monthly inflow to the Mile Mughan Dam, a transboundary hydroelectric and irrigation dam located on the Aras River between Azerbaijan and Iran, using a 14-year dataset (2010–2023) under two scenarios. In total, 70% of data was used for training and 30% for testing. The first scenario encompassed meteorological variables plus three months of inflow lags, and the second included inflow lags only. Model performance was assessed using Coefficient of Determination (R2), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and graphical plots. HQNN showed superior performance across all metrics. In Scenario 1, HQNN achieved R2 = 0.915, RMSE = 37.318 MCM, NSE = 0.908, MAPE = 8.343%; CNN-BiLSTM had R2 = 0.867, RMSE = 46.506 MCM, NSE = 0.858, MAPE = 10.795%; SVR had R2 = 0.846, RMSE = 52.372 MCM, NSE = 0.821, MAPE = 12.772%. In Scenario 2, HQNN maintained strong performance (R2 = 0.855, RMSE = 48.56 MCM, NSE = 0.845, MAPE = 9.979%) and outperformed CNN-BiLSTM (R2 = 0.810, RMSE = 56.126 MCM, NSE = 0.793, MAPE = 11.456%) and SVR (R2 = 0.801, RMSE = 60.336 MCM, NSE = 0.761, MAPE = 12.901%). In Scenario 1 and Scenario 2, HQNN increased the prediction accuracy by 19.76% and 13.47%, respectively, compared to the CNN-BiLSTM model. These results confirm HQNN’s reliability in both multivariate and univariate modeling.

Drought is a complex and frequently occurring natural hazard in many parts of the world. Therefore, accurate drought forecasting is essential to mitigate its adverse impacts. This research has inferred the implication and the appropriateness of the extreme learning machine (ELM) algorithm for drought forecasting. For numerical evaluation, time series data of the Standardized Precipitating Temperature Index (SPTI) are used for nine meteorological stations located in various climatological zones of Pakistan. To assess the performance of ELM, this research includes parallel inferences of multilayer perceptron (MLP) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. The performance of each model is assessed using root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percent error (MAPE), Kling‐Gupta efficiency (KGE), Willmott index (WI), and Karl Pearson’s correlation coefficient. Generally, graphical results illustrated an excellent performance of the ELM algorithm over MLP and ARIMA models. For training data of SPTI‐1, ELM’s best performance has observed at Chitral station (RMSE = 0.374, KGE = 0.838, WI = 0.960, MAE = 0.272, MAPE = 259.59, R = 0.93). For SPTI‐1 at Astore station, the numerical results are (RMSE = 0.688, KGE = 0.988, WI = 0.997, MAE = 0.798, MAPE = 247.35). The overall results indicate that the ELM outperformed by producing the smallest RMSE, MAE, and MAPE values and maximum values for KGE, WI, and correlation coefficient values at almost all the selected meteorological stations for (1, 3, 6, 9, and 12) month time scales. In summary, this research endorses the use of ELM for accurate drought forecasting.

It is well-known that solar power depends on many complex parameters such as humidity, radiation, temperature, dust and wind speed. In order to cope with these complex structures and to provide an accurate forecast, the development of reliable and effective forecasting methodology is very significant. In this study, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN)-based system has been developed to forecast very short-term (2 to 4-h) power output of a grid tied Photovoltaic Power Plant (PVPP). An algorithm called Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) has gained increasing interest through its extremely fast learning and good generalization capability. The Kernel Extreme Learning Machine (KELM) which is the improved version of the ELM is proposed to develop a very short-term PVPP power forecast system. The most important feature of KELM is that it has less adjustable parameters and better generalization ability when compared with classical ELM. Experimental studies have been carried out on a grid tied PVPP that has 1 (MW) installed power capacity. The inputs of the KELM-based forecast system are selected as solar power, humidity, radiation and temperature. All data are divided into four parts to analyze the effect of seasons on the performance of the proposed forecast system. The comparison studies are carried out to clearly observe the forecast ability and performance of the KELM. From the experimental studies of the winter season which has not symmetric diurnal mean power curve, Correlation Coefficients (R) values of KELM are calculated as 0.896 for 2-h ahead, 0.865 for 3-h ahead, 0.833 for 4-h ahead. Those of ELM and (Levenberg Marquardt) LM are 0.866–0.812 for 2-h ahead, 0.831–0.669 for 3-h ahead, 0.799–0.502 for 4-h ahead, respectively. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) values of KELM for winter season are 12.08%-6.14% for 2-h ahead, 14.06%-7.43% for 3-h ahead, 15.33%-7.74% for 4-h ahead, respectively. While these values of ELM are obtained as 13.82%-7.05% for 2-h ahead, 15.52%-8.77% for 3-h ahead, 17.63%-9.33% for 4-h ahead. The RMSE and MAE values of LM are 17.90%-9.14% for 2-h ahead, 20.04%-9.85% for 3-h ahead, 21.22%-10.68% for 4-h ahead. According to the obtained results, it is clearly seen that KELM provides a more powerful and reliable forecasting performance.

This paper proposes a novel artificial neural network called Parallel Layer Perceptron Fast Learning Network (PLP-FLN). In PLP-FLN, a parallel single hidden layer feed-forward neural network is added on the basis of Fast Learning Network (FLN) which is an improved Extreme Learning Machine (ELM). Input weights and hidden layer biases are randomly generated. The weights connect the output nodes and the input nodes, and the weights connect the output nodes and the hidden nodes are analytically determined based on least squares methods. In order to test the PLP-FLN validity, this paper compared it with ELM, FLN, Kernel ELM and Incremental ELM through 12 regression applications and 7 classification problems. By comparing the experimental results, it shows that the PLP-FLN with much more compact networks have demonstrated better approximations, classification performances and generalization ability.

Sewage treatment process has the following characteristics: nonlinear, delay etc, and is very complicated to establish the model for its control process. A reasonable model is set up for elaborate prediction effluent quality, which can satisfy the standard of the effluent water and requirements of energy saving simultaneously. Extreme learning machine (ELM), i.e the machine learning method that new lately developed has high accuracy, reliability and outstanding performance in prediction. To get higher prediction effect, in this paper, there are two ways are proposed to improve the ELM, (1) Optimizing the parameters. The ELM whose input weights and bias threshold are optimized by particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO) and genetic algorithm (GA), respectively; (2) Changing learning mode. To develop an online sequential learning algorithm (OS) for the ELM with additive or radial basis function (RBF) hidden nodes in a unified framework. Therefore, the several comparison approaches refer to optimize the ELM, e.g., PSO-ELM, GA-ELM, OS-ELM are applied to effluent quality prediction, and chemical oxygen demand (COD) is taken as examples in this paper. The results show that PSO-ELM model has remarkably superior performance on effluent quality prediction than peer models in terms of mean absolute error, mean absolute percentage error, root mean square error, and coefficient of determination.

Globally, wind energy if properly harnessed, could serve as a source of energy generation in Africa. This study compared the performance of two Machine Learning (ML) algorithms (Linear regression and Random Forest) in predicting wind speed in five major cities in Africa (Yaoundé, Pretoria, Nairobi, Cairo and Abuja). Wind data were collected between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2022, using the Solar Radiation Data Archive. The data preprocessing was carried out with 80% of the data used for training and 20% for validation. The performance of these ML algorithms was evaluated using Mean Square Error (MSE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and coefficient of determination (R2). The result shows that Nairobi (3.814795 m/s) closely followed by Cairo (3.606453 m/s) has the highest mean wind speed while Yaoundé (1.090512 m/s) has the lowest. Based on the performance metrics used, the two Machine Learning algorithms were competitive. Still, the Linear Regression (LR) algorithm outperformed the Random Forest Algorithm in predicting wind speed in all the selected major African cities. In Yaoundé (RMSE = 0.3892, MAE= 0.3001, MAPE =0.5030), Pretoria (RMSE=1.2339, MAE=0.9480, MAPE=0.7450) Nairobi (RMSE= 0.4223, MAE =0.6499, MAPE =0.1872), Nairobi (RMSE=0.6499, MAE=0.5171, MAPE =0.1872), Cairo (RMSE =1.0909, MAE =0.8544, MAPE =0.3541) and Abuja (RMSE = 0.70245, MAE =0.5441, MAPE= 0.4515) the Linear regression algorithms was found to outperformed Random Forest Regression. Therefore, the Linear regression algorithm is more reliable in predicting wind speed compared with the Random Forest regression.

Short-term electric load forecasting based on improved Extreme Learning Machine Mode

Energy-saving design is becoming a trending topic and top-priority over the past decades due to high energy costs, limited available resources and growing urban development. Buildings are alluded to as the major contributors of energy consumption and environmental emissions across the globe. This calls for the development of precise forecasting models of energy consumption and carbon emissions. Hence, this research paper harnesses the implementation of several contemporary metaheuristics to accurately project heating and cooling energy (HEN and CEN) in residential buildings. In this respect, black widow optimization, dandelion optimization, dingo optimization, sparrow search, and red-tailed hawk optimization are among the studied metaheuristics in this research study. The prediction accuracies of the developed models are assessed stepping on the measures of i) relative absolute error (RAE), ii) mean absolute error (MAE), iii) mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), iv) root mean squared error (RMSE) and v) Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE). It is shown that the developed red-tailed hawk optimization-based model succeeded in accomplishing the most precise results of HEN and CEN. In this context, it predicted HEN with RAE (0.201), MAE (1.838), MAPE (7.626%), RMSE (2.826), and NSE (0.921). Besides, it anticipated CEN with RAE (0.234), MAE (2.009), MAPE (7.519%), RMSE (3.246), and NSE (0.883). It can be argued that this research study could benefit architects and designers in creating more energy-efficient buildings at an early stage.

Chapter 21 - Optimally pruned extreme learning machine: A new nontuned machine learning model for predicting chlorophyll concentration

Data-based groundwater quality estimation and uncertainty analysis for irrigation agriculture

Hybrid random forest-based models for predicting shear strength of structural surfaces based on surface morphology parameters and metaheuristic algorithms

Project cost prediction is one of the key elements in the civil engineering activities development. Project cost is a highly sensitive component to diverse parameters and hence it is associated with complex trends that make it difficult to be predicted and fully understood. Due to the massive advancement of soft computing (SC) and Internet of things (IoT), the main research objective of the current study was initiative. Several machine learning (ML) models including extreme learning machine (ELM), multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS), and partial least square regression (PLS) were adopted to predict field canal cost. Several essential predictors were used to develop the prediction network “the learning process” including the total length of the PVC pipeline, served area, geographical zone, construction year, and cost and duration of field canal improvement projects (FCIP) construction. Data were collected from the open source published literature. The modeling results evidenced the potential of the applied SC models in predicting the FCIP cost. In numerical magnitude evaluation, MARS model indicated the least value for the root mean square error (RMSE = 27422.7), mean absolute error (MAE = 19761.8), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE = 0.05454) with Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE = 0.94), agreement index (MD = 0.89), and coefficient of determination (R2 = 0.94), with best precision of prediction using all predictors, except geographical zone parameter in which less influence on the cost construction is presented. In general, the research outcome gave an informative primary cost initiative for cost civil engineering project.

The shallow seawater depth inversion based on remote sensing technology is important for water depth detection, which is of considerable significance to marine engineering, shipping, and marine military security. In this study, we took the Taiping Island and its adjacent waters in the South China Sea as a test bed and developed a water depth inversion model on the basis of extreme learning machine (ELM) and extreme learning machine optimized by genetic algorithm (GA-ELM). In GA-ELM, the input weights and the hidden layer biases were optimized by genetic algorithm. The two models allowed the evaluation of nonlinear relationships between the reflectance of high-resolution imagery from WorldView-2 and actual water depth obtained from the S-57 sea chart. The eight bands of the high-resolution image and the actual water depth were used as the input layer and the output layer, and the sigmoid function was introduced as activation function. Finally, the model accuracy was evaluated by using mean relative error (MRE), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), coefficient of determination (R2), and the regression analysis between the retrieved water depth and the actual data. The simulation results showed that the two models had better stability than the second-order polynomial regression, BP neural network, and RBF neural network. Furthermore, GA-ELM had a more compact network structure and better generalization ability than ELM. Thus, we concluded that GA-ELM had higher precision and could achieve a better inversion result in the experimental area.

Accurately predicting aerosol optical depth (AOD), a key parameter for characterizing atmospheric aerosols, is essential due to the increasing prevalence of air pollution and its detrimental effects. From existing literature on AOD time-series prediction, linear models like seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) are commonly used, while nonlinear models such as machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) have gained popularity recently for their ability to handle nonlinear patterns. This study introduces a hybrid model, particle swarm optimization-seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average-support vector regression (PSOSARIMA-PSOSVR), which integrates linear and nonlinear modeling through residual modeling to significantly enhance AOD prediction accuracy. By combining these approaches, we aim to better handle the nonlinearities and overall variability in AOD data, leading to more accurate predictions. To address hyperparameter tuning challenges, including the risks of model misspecification and overfitting or underfitting, PSO is utilized for optimization. PSO’s evolutionary optimization ensures efficient tuning for optimal model performance. Monthly AOD data sourced from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite covering the northern Indian region from 2001 to 2019 is used for experiments. Performance metrics such as root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), coefficient of determination (R2), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and root mean square error ratio (RSR) are employed to evaluate model accuracy and dependability. The results of this study illustrate that the proposed PSOSARIMA-PSOSVR model outperforms both standalone PSOSARIMA and PSOSVR models. Moreover, it consistently surpasses SARIMA, SVR, and long short-term memory (LSTM) in AOD prediction, effectively addressing non-stationarity and variability challenges in AOD data. This study suggests the hybrid model as a promising approach for improving the accuracy of AOD prediction.

As the penetration rate of wind power in the grid continues to increase, wind speed forecasting plays a crucial role in wind power generation systems. Wind speed prediction helps optimize the operation and management of wind power generation, enhancing efficiency and reliability. However, wind speed is a nonlinear and nonstationary system, and traditional statistical methods and classical intelligent algorithms struggle to cope with dynamically updating operating conditions based on sampled data. Therefore, from the perspective of optimizing intelligent algorithms, a wind speed prediction model for wind farms was researched. In this study, we propose the Deterministic Broad Learning System (DBLS) algorithm for wind farm wind speed prediction. It effectively addresses the issues of data saturation and local minima that often occur in continuous-time system modeling. To adapt to the continuous updating of sample data, we improve the sample input of the Broad Learning System (BLS) by using a fixed-width input. When new samples are added, an equivalent number of old samples is removed to maintain the same input width, ensuring the feature capture capability of the model. Additionally, we construct a dataset of wind speed samples from 10 wind farms in Gansu Province, China. Based on this dataset, we conducted comparative experiments between the DBLS and other algorithms such as Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Regression (SVR), Extreme Learning Machines (ELM), and BLS. The comparison analysis of different algorithms was conducted using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Among them, the DBLS algorithm exhibited the best performance. The RMSE of the DBLS ranged from 0.762 m/s to 0.776 m/s, and the MAPE of the DBLS ranged from 0.138 to 0.149.