Projected Climate-Driven Shifts in Maize Production in Bosnia and Herzegovina: Regional Analysis Using Agroclimatic Indicators and Modelling Tools

The signals of global warming are now being observed throughout the world. Data of hydrometeorological centres show a significant increase of temperature in many regions accompanied by intense frequency of dry periods. Some substantial and direct effects of climate change may be already noticed at present time. Over the next several decades they will be observed in agriculture. Increase of temperature and reduction of precipitation volumes will probably lead to decrease the level of yield. These changes can significantly affect the global food security. Ukraine is known for its fertile soil and agricultural products, so it has a huge agricultural potential, contributing, in fact, to the global food security. However, the observed weather changes, increase of average temperature and uneven distribution of rainfalls can result in sharp transformation of most of agricultural and climatic zones of Ukraine. According to international processes there is an urgent need for improvement of adaptation to climate change of some branches of national economy of Ukraine, including of agriculture.
 Expanding the range of types of millet used in agricultural production is an economically feasible process that should be implemented in view of significant climate changes resulting in global warming which is widely discussed in scientific literature. Rapid introduction in crop shifts of the millet that is able to withstand recurring periodic droughts, especially in the southern regions, is one of the ways allowing to overcome the consequences of such extreme conditions.
 Conditions of the southern regions are favourable for millet crop. Millet is one of the most drought-resistant and heat-resistant crops that can sustain heat injuries and seizures and this is very important for arid areas during dry years, when other crops significantly reduce the level of yield.
 We studied changes of agro-climatic resources and agro-climatic conditions for formation of millet productivity for various periods of time. The analysis of climate change trend was performed through comparing of data as per climatic scenarios A2 and A1B and of average long-term characteristics of climatic and agro-climatic indicators. The comparative description of millet productivity under the conditions of climate change as per average long-term data (1986-2005) and as per scenarios A2 and A1B of climate change (2011-2030 and 2031-2050) was also performed.

Evaluating the joint effects of climate and land use change on runoff and pollutant loading in a rapidly developing watershed

An integrated modeling framework – IMPACT – which integrates partial equilibrium economic model, hydrology model, crop simulation model and climate model was used to examine the ex-ante economic impact of developing and disseminating a drought tolerant sorghum cultivar in target countries of Africa and Asia. The impact of drought tolerant sorghum technology on production, consumption, trade flow and prices of sorghum in target and non-target countries were analyzed. And also we estimated the returns to research investment for developing the promising new drought tolerant cultivars and dissemination in the target countries. The analysis indicates that the economic benefits of drought tolerant sorghum cultivar adoption in the target countries outweighs the cost of developing this new technology. The development and release of this new technology in the target countries of Asia and Africa would provide a net economic benefit of about 1,476.8 million US$ for the entire world under no climate change condition. Under climate change scenarios the net benefits derived from adoption of new drought tolerant sorghum cultivar is higher than the no climate change condition. This is due to higher production realized by sorghum under climate change scenarios. The results imply that substantial economic benefits can be achieved from the development of a drought tolerant sorghum cultivar. And also this technology will perform better than the existing cultivars in future climate change condition.

Preparing suitable climate scenario data to assess impacts on local food safety

Background:The geographic range of the tick Amblyomma americanum, a vector of diseases of public health significance such as ehrlichiosis, has expanded from the southeast of the United States northward during the 20th century. Recently, populations of this tick have been reported to be present close to the Canadian border in Michigan and New York states, but established populations are not known in Canada. Previous research suggests that changing temperature patterns with climate change may influence tick life cycles and permit northward range expansion of ticks in the northern hemisphere.Objectives:We aimed to estimate minimal temperature conditions for survival of A. americanum populations at the northern edge of the tick’s range and to investigate the possibility of range expansion of A. americanum into northern U.S. states and southern Canada in the coming decades.Methods:A simulation model of the tick A. americanum was used, via simulations using climate data from meteorological stations in the United States and Canada, to estimate minimal temperature conditions for survival of A. americanum populations at the northern edge of the tick’s range.Results:The predicted geographic scope of temperature suitability [ annual cumulative degree days (DD) ] included most of the central and eastern U.S. states east of longitude 110°W, which is consistent with current surveillance data for the presence of the tick in this region, as well as parts of southern Quebec and Ontario in Canada. Regional climate model output raises the possibility of northward range expansion into all provinces of Canada from Alberta to Newfoundland and Labrador during the coming decades, with the greatest northward range expansion (up to by the year 2100) occurring under the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. Predicted northward range expansion was reduced by approximately half under the reduced GHG emissions of RCP4.5.Discussion:Our results raise the possibility of range expansion of A. americanum into northern U.S. states and southern Canada in the coming decades, and conclude that surveillance for this tick, and the diseases it transmits, would be prudent. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP5668

Simulations using the Crop Water and Irrigation Requirements model (CROPWAT), show that the projected climatic changes over the period from 2026 to 2050 in the Yanyun irrigation district, Yangzhou, China, will cause the paddy lands there to lose about 12.4% to 37.4%, and 1.6% to 45.6%, of their future seasonal rainwater in runoff under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP45 and RCP85), respectively. This may increase future irrigation requirements (IRs), alongside threatening the quality of adjacent water bodies. The CROPWAT simulations were re-run after increasing the Surface Storage Capacity (SSC) of the land by 50% and 100% of its baseline value. The results state that future rainwater runoff will be reduced by up to 76% and 100%, and 53% and 100% when the SSC is increased by 50% and 100%, under RCP45 and RCP85, respectively. This mitigates the future increase in IRs (e.g., under RCP45, up to about 11% and 16% of future IRs will be saved when increasing the SSC by 50% and 100%, respectively), thus saving the adjacent water bodies from the contaminated runoff from these lands. Adjusting the SSC of farmlands is an easy physical approach that can be practiced by farmers, and therefore educating them on how to follow up the rainfall forecast and then adjust the level of their farmlands’ boundaries according to these forecasts may help in the self-adaptation of vast areas of farmlands to climate change. These findings will help water users conserve agricultural water resources (by mitigating the future increase in IRs) alongside ensuring better quality for adjacent water bodies (by decreasing future runoff from these farmlands). Increasing farmers’ awareness, an underutilized approach, is a potential tool for ensuring improved agricultural circumstances amid projected climate changes and preserving the available water resources.

A modelling platform for climate change impact on local and regional crop water requirements

During the past few decades, the basic assumption of agroclimatic zoning, i.e., that agroclimatic conditions remain relatively stable, has been shattered by ongoing climate change. The first aim of this study was to develop a tool that would allow for effective analysis of various agroclimatic indicators and their dynamics under climate change conditions for a particular region. The results of this effort were summarized in the AgriClim software package, which provides users with a wide range of parameters essential for the evaluation of climate-related stress factors in agricultural crop production. The software was then tested over an area of 114,000 km2 in Central Europe. We have found that by 2020, the combination of increased air temperature and changes in the amount and distribution of precipitation will lead to a prolonged growing season and significant shifts in the agroclimatic zones in Central Europe; in particular, the areas that are currently most productive will be reduced and replaced by warmer but drier conditions in the same time the higher elevations will most likely experience improvement in their agroclimatic conditions. This positive effect might be short-lived, as by 2050, even these areas might experience much drier conditions than observed currently. Both the rate and the scale of the shift are amazing as by 2020 (assuming upper range of the climate change projections) only 20–38% of agriculture land in the evaluated region will remain in the same agroclimatic and by 2050 it might be less than 2%. On the other hand farmers will be able to take advantage of an earlier start to the growing season, at least in the lowland areas, as the proportion of days suitable for sowing increases. As all of these changes might occur within less than four decades, these issues could pose serious adaptation challenges for farmers and governmental policies. The presented results also suggest that the rate of change might be so rapid that the concept of static agroclimatic zoning itself might lose relevance due to perpetual change.

This study presents an application of the Ricardian approach to explore the impact of climate change on farmland values in Nepal. The Ricardian approach is estimated using a panel fixed effects model, and the outcome is compared against two separate models that account for spatial correlation: a spatial autoregressive (SAR) model; and a spatial error model (SEM). The findings suggest that Nepalese farmlands are sensitive to climate change, and this result was consistent in both the non-spatial and the spatial frameworks. The inclusion of the spatial effects, however, revealed the presence of positive spatial autocorrelation and produced conservative estimates of climate change impacts. The net effect of annual increases in average temperature was negative; while the net effect of higher annual average precipitation was a positive outcome on farmland values. In particular, we found that the marginal effect of every degree increase in average annual temperature was Rs.180 /hectare ($1.80) reduction in farmland values. Likewise, for rainfall, it was found that 1 mm increase in average annual rainfall would positively affect farmland value by Rs.225/hectare ($2.25). Finally, the study findings suggested that extreme weather events could also impact the agricultural productivity and the farmland values in Nepal.   Key words: Climate change, ricardian approach, spatial panel data analysis, Nepalese agriculture, environmental valuation.

Agriculture is highly sensitive to climate variability, and ongoing warming is expected to modify the thermal conditions controlling fruit tree phenology and production. This study analyzes the spatiotemporal variability of winter chilling, spring heat accumulation, and spring frost probability across fruit-growing areas in Aragón (northeast Spain) using a regional, high-resolution agroclimatic approach. Chill portions (CP), growing degree hours (GDH), and spring frost probability occurrence (SFPO) were computed from daily gridded maximum and minimum temperature data at 1km² spatial resolution. Agroclimatic indicators were derived using statistical, non-experimental methods based on established chilling and forcing models and empirical temperature thresholds. Recent historical variability was characterized using overlapping 30-year historical climate periods while future climate conditions were assessed using daily temperature projections from an ensemble of 18 regional climate models (EURO-CORDEX), dynamically downscaled from global climate models and bias-corrected. Projections were analyzed for a historical reference period (1971-2000) and under the intermediate and high emissions scenario RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for mid-century (2041-2070) and late-century (2071-2100) periods. Climate projections at ~ 5km spatial resolution were interpolated to 1km and bias-corrected using Empirical Quantile Mapping with high-resolution observational data as reference. Changes in CP and GDH distributions were quantified using spatial differences and standardized anomalies relative to historical conditions, and indicators were extracted at the location of existing fruit orchards. Results indicate that effective winter chilling remains within broad ranges compatible with fruit production across all scenarios, with persistent spatial contrasts between western and eastern sectors. In contrast, spring heat accumulation shows a strong and spatially coherent increase, particularly in low-elevation and eastern areas, indicating an increasing influence of spring temperatures on phenological dynamics. Although future scenarios project a substantial reduction in the probability of frost occurrence after early March, increasing heat accumulation may advance phenological development, potentially shifting frost exposure to earlier periods in late winter. Overall, the results indicate that agroclimatic conditions in Aragón are strongly structured by regional climatic gradients, and that climate change is likely to intensify spatial contrasts between colder and warmer production areas rather than producing uniform changes across the region. These results provide a regional agroclimatic framework that can support adaptation planning and the long-term management of fruit production under climate change.

Climate change plays a pivotal role in the hydrological dynamics of tributaries in the upper Blue Nile basin. The understanding of the change in climate and its impact on water resource is of paramount importance to sustainable water resources management. This study was designed to reveal the extent to which the climate is being changed and its impacts on stream flow of the Gumara watershed under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate change scenarios. The study considered the RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios using the second-generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2). The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) was used for calibration and projection of future climatic data of the study area. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used for simulation of the future stream flow of the watershed. Results showed that the average temperature will be increasing by 0.84 °C, 2.6 °C, and 4.1 °C in the end of this century under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. The change in monthly rainfall amount showed a fluctuating trend in all scenarios but the overall annual rainfall amount is projected to increase by 8.6%, 5.2%, and 7.3% in RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5, respectively. The change in stream flow of Gumara watershed under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios showed increasing trend in monthly average values in some months and years, but a decreasing trend was also observed in some years of the studied period. Overall, this study revealed that, due to climate change, the stream flow of the watershed is found to be increasing by 4.06%, 3.26%, and 3.67%under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively.

This study evaluates the possible effects of climate modifications induced by increasing trace gas concentrations in the atmosphere, on wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and maize (Zea mays L.) yield and water demand in France. CERES-wheat and CERES-maize models are used with two French weather series and soil conditions. Weather variables were varied from present conditions, as simulated by various global climate models (GCMs). This chapter emphasizes the process of model calibration and the consequent uncertainties in final simulated results. Under the simulation conditions: (i) season lengths are shortened under climate change scenarios; (ii) yield decreases under climate change alone, but the decrease can be somewhat counteracted by direct CO{sub 2} effects on the crop, up to a 5 C temperature increase; and (iii) water use decreases under climate changes. Even if the large diversity of French climates and soils prohibits generalization of these results to the entire country, the main conclusions are: (i) under both temperate and Mediterranean climates, winter cereal yields will not be decreased by future conditions, provided that irrigation supply is not limiting under dry conditions and (ii) under temperate climate, maize could take advantage of development phase shrinkage and improve its radiation use efficiency. Changing sowing more » date produces varying results according to weather scenario, plant, and location. A more precise knowledge of initial soil water or temperature under changing conditions is necessary before optimal agronomic adaptation to future climate can be suggested. « less

River flow dynamics play an important role for aquatic and riparian ecosystems. Climate change is projected to significantly alter river flow regimes in Europe and worldwide. In this study, we evaluate future river flow alterations in the entire Danube River basin by means of ecologically relevant river flow indicators under different climate warming scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5). The process-based watershed model SWIM was applied for 1124 sub-catchments to simulate daily time series of river discharge for the Danube River and its tributaries under future scenario conditions. The derived hydrological data series were then statistically analyzed using eight eco-hydrological indicators to distinguish intra-year variations in the streamflow regime. The results are used to: (a) analyze the possible impacts of climate change on the ecologically relevant flow regime components; and (b) identify regions at the highest risk of climate change-driven flow alterations. Our results indicate that climate change will distinctively alter the recent ecological flow regime of the Danube River and, in particular, the tributaries of the Middle and Lower Danube basin. While for the RCP 2.6 scenario the projected flow alterations might still be considered moderate for many rivers, the impacts might strongly accelerate if global mean temperatures rise more than 2 °C compared to pre-industrial times. Under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 warming scenarios, the recent ecological flow regime might be highly altered, posing a serious threat to river and floodplain ecosystems.

This study analyzes the impact of anthropogenic climate change in the hydroclimatology of Senegal with a focus over the lake of Guiers basin for the middle (2041–2060) and late twenty-first century (2080–2099). To this end, high-resolution multimodel ensemble based on regional climate model experiments considering two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) is used. The results indicate that an elevated warming, leading to substantial increase of atmospheric water demand, is projected over the whole of Senegal. In the Lake basin, these increases in potential evapotranspiration (PE) range between 10 and 25 % in the near future and for RCP4.5 while for the far future and RCP8.5, they exceed 50 %. In addition, mean precipitation unveils contrasting changes with wetter (10 to 25 % more) conditions by the middle of the century and drier conditions (more than 50 %) during the late twenty-first century. Such changes cause more/less evapotranspiration and soil moisture respectively during the two future periods. Furthermore, surface runoff shows a tendency to increase in most areas amid few locations including the Lake basin with substantial reduction. Finally, it is found that while semi-arid climates develop in the RCP4.5 scenario, generalized arid conditions prevail over the whole Senegal for RCP8.5. It is thus evident that these future climate conditions substantially threaten freshwater availability for the country and irrigated cropping over the Lake basin. Therefore, strong governmental politics are needed to help design response options to cope with the challenges posed by the projected climate change for the country.

Background and Aims An understanding of the dynamics of the components of evapotranspiration and irrigation requirements in response to climate variation and change is essential to manage vineyards sustainably. Methods and Results Winegrape evapotranspiration (ETC adj), seasonal transpiration (Tp adj), soil evaporation (Es) and irrigation requirement (I) were evaluated with the FAO-56 dual-crop coefficient, across a range of soil types, in response to historical (1970–2017) and future (2018–2050, Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) climate projections. The Mann–Kendell non-parametric test and Sen's slope were used to detect any trends regarding historical and future climate. A statistically significant increasing trend was observed in the annual ETC adj, Tp adj and I under both climate scenarios, and Es showed a significant negative trend for the historical projection. Average daily ETC adj ranged from 1.2 to 4.3 mm under historical climate and increased to 1.5–4.6 mm under the future climate projection. Estimated I was 240–528 mm depending on the soil type and rainfall during the growing season, with the largest increase in irrigation predicted during October and November. Conclusions The increase in irrigation requirements was within half a standard deviation of historic values, and the largest increase did not coincide with the months of maximum demand. Significance of the Study The predicted increase in irrigation requirements is likely to be within the adaptive capacity of the existing infrastructure and growing systems but will need ongoing monitoring as climate projections are revised.