Quantifying Environmental Control on Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change

The study of the impact of global warming on tropical cyclone (TC) intensity is subject to uncertainty in historical datasets, especially in the western North Pacific (WNP) basin, where conflicting results have been found with the TC datasets archived in different organizations. In this study the basinwide TC intensity in the WNP basin is derived dynamically with a TC intensity model, based on the track data from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) of Tokyo, and the Shanghai Typhoon Institute (STI) of the China Meteorological Administration. The dynamically derived TC intensity is compared to the three datasets and used to investigate trends in TC intensity. The associated contributions of changes in SST, vertical wind shear, and prevailing tracks are also examined. The evolution of the basinwide TC intensity in the JTWC best-track dataset can be generally reproduced over the period 1975–2007. Dynamically derived data based on the JTWC, RSMC, and STI track datasets all show an increasing trend in the peak intensity and frequency of intense typhoons, mainly because of the combined effect of changes in SST and vertical wind shear. This study suggests that the increasing intensity trend in the JTWC dataset is real, but that it may be overestimated. In contrast, the TC intensity trends in the RSMC and STI intensity datasets are dynamically inconsistent. Numerical simulations also suggest that the frequency of intense typhoons is more sensitive to changes in SST and vertical wind shear than the peak and average intensities defined in previous studies.

The relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change exhibits a strong dependence on the current TC intensity. Using western North Pacific TC observations from 1982 to 2018, a threshold SST (TSST) is identified as the SST required to maintain TC intensity. TSST increases with TC intensity, with TCs intensifying and weakening when SST is higher and lower than TSST, respectively. Across the dataset, mean TC intensity change is proportional to the difference between SST and TSST. This study also formulates an equation to quantify TC intensity change using SST and current TC intensity, which replicates 99.46% of the mean observed TC intensity changes. This equation could serve as an alternative to the linear regression‐based relationship between SST and TC intensity change that is widely used in statistical‐dynamical intensity models, thereby improving intensity forecasts.

Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity is controlled by both environmental factors and its internal structure. This paper investigates the influence of inner core features derived from satellite data on TC intensity changes and explores effective methods to improve TC intensity forecast accuracy. We construct models for forecasting TC intensity over the next 5 days using the light gradient boosting machine (LGBM) algorithm in the northwestern Pacific. The models integrate climatological and persistence predictors, large-scale environmental variables at the initial time, inner core features extracted from satellite data, and variables related to the forecasted TC location. The models are trained on TC data from 2005 to 2019, tested using best track data from 2020 to 2022 and real-time data in 2023. Results show that the inner core features derived from satellite data are helpful for intensity forecasts within 36 h, and variables related to the forecasted location are helpful for improving TC intensity forecast accuracy in most cases, especially for the forecasts beyond 48 h. Compared with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) models, our models demonstrate 4%–48% and 19%–70% decreases in mean absolute errors (MAEs) in real-time intensity forecasts. The most important predictors identified include potential future intensity change, intensity changes during the previous 12 h, vertical wind shear, and sea–land ratio. The inner core feature extracted from satellite data is also among the top 10 important variables for short-time intensity forecasts. Significance Statement This study advances tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasting by integrating climatological and persistence predictors, large-scale environmental variables at the initial time, satellite-derived inner core features, and variables related to the forecasted TC location into the light gradient boosting machine (LGBM) models. Our models significantly improve forecast accuracy, reducing mean absolute errors by 4%–48% compared with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and 19%–70% compared with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Results denote that the inner core features improve the intensity prediction in the short time, and variables related to the forecasted TC location improve the intensity forecasts in most cases, especially for the forecasts beyond 48 h. This study provides valuable insights for enhancing operational TC intensity forecasting.

This paper is the second part of a comprehensive study on tropical cyclone (TC) size. In Part I, the climatology of TC size and strength over the western North Pacific (WNP) and the North Atlantic was established based on the Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) data. In this second part, the mechanisms that are likely responsible for TC size changes are explored through analyses of angular momentum (AM) transports and synoptic flow patterns associated with the TC. Changes in AM transport in the upper and lower troposphere appear to be important factors that affect TC intensity and size, respectively. The change in TC intensity is positively related to the change in the upper-tropospheric AM export, while the change in TC size is positively proportional to the change in the lower-tropospheric AM import. An examination of the synoptic flow patterns associated with WNP TCs suggests that changes in the synoptic flow near the TC are important in determining the change in TC size, with developments of the lower-tropospheric anticyclonic flows (one to the east and one to the west) bordering the TC being favorable for TC growth and a weakening of the subtropical high to the southeast for TC size reduction. A recurving TC tends to grow if the lower-tropospheric westerlies to its west increase. Moreover, a northward TC movement is related to the change in TC size. For example, a higher northward-moving speed is found for a larger TC, which also agrees well with the AM transport concept.

Impacts of Climate Change on Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific Basin. Part II: Late Twenty-First Century Projections

An updated climatology of Atlantic basin tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change in the presence of upper tropospheric trough forcing is presented. To control for changes in the background thermodynamic environment, a methodology that normalizes intensity change by the potential intensity of the TC is used to more narrowly focus on the effect of troughs compared to previous studies. Relative to the full sample of Atlantic TCs, troughs are a negative influence on intensification: trough interaction cases are 4% less likely to intensify and 5% more likely to weaken. Troughs are especially detrimental compared to TCs without trough forcing: trough interaction cases are 14% less likely to intensify and 13% more likely to weaken. Additionally, eddy flux convergence of angular momentum, previously shown to positively affect TC intensity change, is shown to be a weak predictor of intensity change compared to vertical wind shear, which is enhanced during a trough interaction.

To analyze the dependence of intensification rates of tropical cyclones (TCs) on the variation of environmental conditions, an index is proposed here to measure the lifetime maximum intensification rates (LMIRs) for the Saffir–Simpson scale category 4–5 TCs over the western North Pacific. To quantitatively describe the intensification rate of major TCs, the LMIR is defined as the maximum acceleration in the sustained-wind-speed over a 24-h period of an overwater TC. This new index, LMIR, is generally independent of the indices for RI frequency. The results show that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) modulates the inter-annual relationship between the LMIR and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The PDO’s modulation on the ENSO’s effect on the LMIR is explored here by considering the relationship between the LMIR and the environmental conditions in different PDO phases. While the ENSO’s effect on the LMIR for the warm PDO phase is generally by affecting the variations of upper ocean heat content, ENSO mainly influences the variations of zonal wind and vertical wind shear for the cold PDO phase. Our results suggest that fast translating TCs tend to attain strong intensification during the warm PDO phase, while a warm subsurface condition may permit slow-translating TCs also to become strongly intensified during the cooling PDO phase. These findings have an important implication for both prediction of RI and the long-term projection of TC activities in the western North Pacific.

The geographical and temporal characteristics of upper-tropospheric cold low (UTCL) and their relationship to tropical cyclone (TC) track and intensity change over the western North Pacific (WNP) during 2000–12 are examined using the TC best track and global meteorological reanalysis data. An analysis of the two datasets shows that 73% of 346 TCs coexist with 345 UTCLs, and 21% of the latter coexist with TCs within an initial cutoff distance of 15°. By selecting those coexisted systems within this distance, the possible influences of UTCL on TC track and intensity change are found, depending on their relative distance and on the sectors of UTCLs where TCs are located. Results show that the impact of UTCLs on TC directional changes are statistically insignificant when averaged within the 15° radius. However, left-turning TCs within 5° distance from the UTCL center exhibit large deviated directional changes from the WNP climatology, due to the presence of highly frequent abrupt left turnings in the eastern semicircle of UTCL. The abrupt turnings of TCs are often accompanied by their slow-down movements. Results also show that TCs seem more (less) prone to intensify at early (late) development stages when interacting with UTCLs compared to the WNP climatology. Intensifying (weakening) TCs are more distributed in the southern (northern) sectors of UTCLs, with less hostile conditions for weakening within 9°–13° radial range. In addition, rapid intensifying TCs take place in the south-southwest and east-southeast sectors of UTCLs, whereas rapid weakening cases appear in the western semicircle of UTCLs due to their frequent proximity to mainland coastal regions.

The spatial distribution of trends in tropical cyclone (TC) intensity over the western North Pacific Ocean (WNP) during the period 1977–2010 was examined using five TC datasets. The spatial distribution of the TC intensity was expressed by seasonally averaged maximum wind speeds in 5° × 5° horizontal grids. The trends showed a spatial inhomogeneity, with a weakening in the tropical Philippine Sea (TP) and a strengthening in southern Japan and its southeastern ocean (SJ). This distribution could be described by TC intensification rate and genesis frequency, with the aid of the climatological direction of TC movement. The increasing intensification rate around the center of the WNP could mostly account for the increasing intensity over the SJ region, while the influence of both intensification rate and local genesis frequency mattered in the TP region because of the effect of the newly generated and less-developed weak TCs on the TC intensity. Thermodynamic variables (e.g., sea surface temperature, potential intensity, and 26°C isotherm depth) showed almost homogeneous changes in space, possibly favoring intensification rate and genesis frequency over the entire WNP. However, the decreasing intensification rate and genesis frequency in some tropical regions conflicted with the impact of thermodynamic variables; rather, they were in accord with the impact of dynamic variables (i.e., vorticity and wind shear). In conclusion, the spatially inhomogeneous trends in TC intensity could be explained by considering the thermodynamic and dynamic aspects in combination through intensification rate and genesis frequency.

Variability of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency in the western North Pacific and South Pacific ocean basins in the interdecadal scale is studied. It is demonstrated that the TC genesis frequency in these ocean basins experienced an abrupt decrease near the end of the 20th century. The decreased occurrence of TC genesis in the two recent decades is mainly located in the low-latitude regions at the eastern side of the two ocean basins. It is also shown that a significant part of the decreased TC genesis occurred during October to December, i.e. the post-peak season in the western North Pacific ocean basin and the pre-peak season in the South Pacific ocean basin. The interdecadal trend of variation in the TC genesis frequency in these adjacent two ocean basins seems to be mainly due to a common mechanism, i.e. the variation in the atmospheric vorticity. In contrast to the decrease in the total TC genesis, the intense typhoon occurrence frequency experienced an interdecadal increase during the same period. This trend for intense typhoons is particularly clear in the western North Pacific ocean basin. The zonal distribution of the increased number in the intense typhoon occurrence shows a similar pattern to the increased value of the sea surface temperature. It is then suggested that the variation in the intense typhoon occurrence frequency in the western North Pacific ocean basin is related to a change in the La Niña-like sea surface warming pattern.

In this paper, we investigate whether the relationship between the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation and tropical cyclone (TC) rain rate over the western North Pacific (WNP) changes between the global warming slowdown (2001–2012) and resumption (2013–2020) periods. Using high‐resolution satellite rainfall data, we show that the average TC rain rate increases by 9% but decreases by 14% during the recent El Niño and La Niña years (since 2013), respectively. During the El Niño years, the increase is related to higher TC track density at lower latitudes, where more water vapor and stronger convergence are present. On the other hand, the decrease in TC rain rate during the recent La Niña years is mainly related to an increase in track density at higher latitudes and a decrease in TC intensity. These changes in TC track density and intensity are both associated with the strengthening of the subtropical high since 2013.

: The long-term goal of this project is to improve the prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis, structure, and intensity changes through improved representation of 3-dimensional TC structure in operational weather forecast models. The accurate prediction of TC genesis, structure, and intensity changes is critical to Navy missions and civilian activities in coastal areas. Significant gains have been made in TC track prediction over the past decades. However, genesis and intensity forecasts have shown very little progress during the same time period. A primary contributing factor to our lack of skill in predicting TC genesis and intensity is an inadequate representation of initial axisymmetric and asymmetric TC dynamic and thermodynamic structures. TC initialization is a universal problem in nearly all current operational weather forecast systems, as indicated in a recent HFIP workshop. By conducting both idealized Observation System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) and real-case TC forecast experiments, we intend to tackle the weaknesses in current operational weather forecast models. We propose a combined TC dynamic initialization-3DVar data assimilation approach. The key component of this new scheme is a TC dynamic initialization (TCDI) package. The TCDI package includes three steps. The first step is the decomposition of the TC vortex from its environmental field. The second step is a dynamic initialization with the full nonlinear dynamics and physics, which forces the first guess field toward the observed central minimum pressure, given realistic asymmetric heating profiles. The third step is to add the newly generated TC field into the environmental field and use it in the subsequent 3DVar assimilation. After the TCDI is completed, the 3Dvar assimilation follows. A preliminary OSSE study was conducted and the results show that this new approach greatly improves both TC symmetric and asymmetric dynamic and thermodynamic patterns.

Diabatic Heating and Convective Asymmetries During Rapid Intensity Changes of Tropical Cyclones Over North Indian Ocean

The intensities of the tropical cyclones (TCs) that approach or make landfall in Japan and the possible changes in these intensities due to global warming have been investigated on the basis of the theoretical model of Holland (1997). This theoretical model calculates the maximum potential intensity (MPI) of a TC as a lower limit of central sea level pressure for a given upper-air temperature profile and underlying sea surface temperature (SST). This study uses the climatology of the JRA-25 long-term reanalysis for the present environment, along with global warming anomalies derived from CMIP3 multi model climate experiments, which are added to the reanalysis climatology to form a warmed environment. A characteristic of the tropical atmosphere is that warming anomalies are amplified toward the upper troposphere, so that TC intensification due to a rise in SST is suppressed to some extent by greater warming aloft. This study evaluates the uncertainty ranges for the MPI changes by considering inter model differences in the warming structure.The MPI-SST relationship in the present climate is consistent with the historical minimum surface pressure in the western North Pacific when the eyewall relative humidity (RH), one of the model’s key parameters, is set at 88%. The average change in the MPI due to a 1°C rise in the SST is -6.7 hPa [-0.6 to -12.0 hPa], where a negative change indicates intensification and the estimated range in brackets reflects the uncertainty in the warming structure. The error of these MPI changes is estimated to be about 15%, assuming that the likely range of the RH parameter is 88 ± 2%. The fractional change in the surface pressure drop is 3.6%, 8.4%, and 19%, in response to a 0.5, 1.0, and 2.0C rise, respectively, in SST, which is basically comparable to existing studies based on observations and numerical simulations. While TC intensification due to global warming tends to be greater for intense TCs at low latitudes, the tendencies at relatively high latitudes near the main islands of Japan suggest that TC development occurs in a broader region over a more prolonged season in a warmed environment.

In support of The Observing-system Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) and the Office of Naval Research (ONR) Tropical Cyclone Structure-08 (TCS-08) experiments, a variety of real-time products were produced at the Naval Research Laboratory during the field campaign that took place from August through early October 2008. In support of the targeted observing objective, large-scale targeting guidance was produced twice daily using singular vectors (SVs) from the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS). For mesoscale models, TC forecasts were produced using a new version of the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS®) developed specifically for tropical cyclone prediction (COAMPS-TC). In addition to the COAMPSTC forecasts, mesoscale targeted observing products were produced using the COAMPS forecast and adjoint system twice daily, centered on storms of interest.