Radial Evolution of Coronal Mass Ejections in the Inner Heliosphere: Catalog and Analysis

Using in situ measurements and remote-sensing observations, we study two coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that left the Sun on 2012 June 13–14 and impacted both Venus and Earth while the planets were in close radial alignment. The two CMEs generate multiple fronts in Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO)/Heliospheric Imager (HI) images, which can also be observed in the “J-map” as bifurcated features. We present the “ghost front” model to combine remote observations from STEREO/SECCHI and in situ observations from the Wind and Venus Express (VEX) spacecraft, and to derive the kinematics and propagation directions of the CMEs. By fitting the observations of multiple fronts to a kinematically evolving flux rope model and assuming the CMEs undergo deceleration through frictional drag with a steady-state solar wind, we confirm that the outer and inner fronts of the CMEs as detected in HI images are consistent with peaks in Thomson scattered light returned from the flank and nose of a single front for each CME. An interaction takes place between CME-1 and CME-2 that can be observed in the HI-1 field of view (FOV) before CME-1 encounters Venus. The multipoint in situ observations of the shock–CME interaction event serve as further evidence of the interaction between CMEs. The arrival times calculated from the ghost front model are within 2.5 hr of those observed at VEX and Wind. Our analysis indicates that ghost fronts could provide information about the longitudinally extended shape of the CME in the FOV of HI-1, which can be used to improve the forecast of interplanetary CME arrival time at Earth.

To investigate the relations between coronal mass ejection (CME) speed and magnetic field properties measured in the photospheric surface of CME source regions, we selected 22 disk CMEs in the rising and early maximum phases of the current Solar Cycle 24. For the CME speed, we used two-dimensional (2D) projected speed observed by the Large Angle and Spectroscopic Coronagraph onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO/LASCO), as well as a 3D speed calculated from the triangulation method using multi-point observations. Two magnetic parameters of CME source regions were considered: the average of magnetic helicity injection rate and the total unsigned magnetic flux. We then classified the selected CMEs into two groups, showing: i) a monotonically increasing pattern with one sign of helicity (group A: 16 CMEs) and ii) a pattern of significant helicity injection followed by its sign reversal (group B: 6 CMEs). We found that: 1) 3D speed generally shows better correlations with the magnetic parameters than the 2D speed for 22 CME events in Solar Cycle 24; 2) 2D speed and the magnetic parameters of 22 CME events in this solar cycle have lower values than those of 47 CME events in Solar Cycle 23; 3) all events of group B in Solar Cycle 24 occur only after the beginning of the maximum phase, a trend well consistent with that shown in Solar Cycle 23; 4) the 2D speed and the helicity parameter of group B events continue to increase in the declining phase of Solar Cycle 23, while those of group A events abruptly decrease in the same period. Our results indicate that the two CME groups have a different tendency in the solar cycle variations of CME speed and the helicity parameters. Active regions that show a complex helicity evolution pattern tend to appear in the maximum and declining phases, while active regions with a relatively simple helicity evolution pattern appear throughout the whole solar cycle.

Context. We explore the impact of interactions between coronal mass ejections (CMEs) – known as CME–CME interactions – on Earth using remote-sensing and in situ observations and estimate the amplification of the geo-effectiveness of the individual CMEs by a factor of ∼2 due to CME–CME interactions. Aims. We present 3D reconstructions of interacting CMEs, which provide essential information on the orientation and interaction of the events. Additionally, we analysed coronal evolution of CMEs and their in situ characteristics at 1 AU to explore the impact of interactions between CMEs on their geo-effectiveness. Methods. We analysed CME interaction using white light data from LASCO and STEREO COR-A. The reported CMEs were reconstructed using the gradual cylindrical shell (GCS) model and simulated self-consistently with the physics-based 3D MHD model EUHFORIA (EUropean Heliosphere FORecasting Information Asset). By running different simulations, we estimated the geo-effectiveness of both individual and interacting CMEs using an empirical relationship method for the disturbance storm index. Results. The SOHO/LASCO spacecraft observed three CMEs erupting from the Sun within an interval of 10 h during a very active period in early November 2021. There were two partial halo CMEs that occurred on 1 Nov. 2021 at 19:00 UT and 22:00 UT, respectively, from the active region 12887 (S28W58), and a third halo CME occurred from AR 12891 (N17E03) on 2 Nov. 2021 at 02:48 UT. By combining remote observations close to the Sun, in situ data at 1 AU, and further numerical analyses of each individual CME, we are able to identify the initial and interplanetary evolution of the CMEs. Conclusions. (i) White light observations and a 3D reconstruction of the CMEs show cannibalism by CME-2 on CME-1 and a flank interaction of CME-3 with the merged CME-1 and CME-2 at 45–50 Rs. (ii) Interacting CMEs exhibit an increase in geo-effectiveness compared to an individual CME.

We assess whether a formula obtained by Richardson et al. (2014, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207‐014‐0524‐8) relating the peak intensity of 14‐ to 24‐MeV protons in a solar energetic particle (SEP) event at 1 AU to the solar event location and the speed of the associated coronal mass ejection (CME) may be used in a scheme to predict the intensity of an SEP event at any location at this heliocentric distance. Starting with all 334 CMEs in the CCMC/SWRC DONKI database in October 2011 to July 2012, we use the CME speed and direction to predict the proton intensity at Earth and the two Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory spacecraft using this formula. Since most (∼85%) of these CMEs were not in fact associated with SEP events, many SEP events are predicted that are not actually observed. Such cases may be reduced by considering whether type II or type III radio emissions accompany the CMEs, or by selecting faster, wider CMEs. This method is also applied to predict the SEP intensities associated with ∼1,100 CMEs observed by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph during 1997–2006 in solar cycle 23. Various skill scores are calculated, which assess different aspects of the skill of the SEP predictions. We conclude that the Richardson et al. (2014) formula has potential as a simple empirical SEP intensity prediction tool.

<p>Previous studies of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have shown the importance of understanding their geometrical structure and internal magnetic field configuration for improving forecasting at Earth. The precise prediction of the CME shock and the magnetic cloud arrival time, their magnetic field strength and the orientation upon impact at Earth is still challenging and relies on solar wind and CME evolution models and precise input parameters. In order to understand the propagation of CMEs in the interplanetary medium, we need to understand their interaction with the complex features in the magnetized background solar wind which deforms, deflects and erodes the CMEs and determines their geo-effectiveness. Hence, it is important to model the internal magnetic flux-rope structure in the CMEs as they interact with CIRs/SIRs, other CMEs and solar transients in the heliosphere. The spheromak model (Verbeke et al. 2019) in the heliospheric wind and CME evolution simulation EUHFORIA (Pomoell and Poedts, 2018), fits well with the data near the CME nose close to its axis but fails to predict the magnetic field in CME legs when these impact Earth (Scolini et al. 2019). Therefore, we implemented the FRi3D stretched flux-rope CME model (Isavnin, 2016) in EUHFORIA to model a more realistic CME geometry. Fri3D captures the three-dimensional magnetic field structure with parameters like skewing, pancaking and flattening that quantify deformations experienced by an interplanetary CME. We perform test runs of real CME events and validate the ability of FRi3D coupled with EUHFORIA in predicting the CME geo-effectiveness. We have modeled two real events with FRi3D. First, a CME event on 12 July 2012 which was a head-on encounter at Earth. Second, the flank CME encounter of 14 June 2012 which did not leave any magnetic field signature at Earth when modeled with Spheromak. We compare our results with the results from non-magnetized cone simulations and magnetized simulations employing the spheromak flux-rope model. We further discuss how constraining observational parameters using the stretched flux rope CME geometry in FRi3D affects the prediction of the magnetic field strength in our simulations, highlighting improvements and discussing future perspective.</p><p><em>This research has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 870405 (EUHFORIA 2.0)</em></p>

Observations of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) with coronagraphs are subject to a projection effect, which results in statistical errors in many properties of CMEs, such as the eruption speed and the angular width. In this paper, we develop a method to obtain the velocity and angular width distributions of CMEs corrected for the projection effect, and then re-examine the relationship between CMEs and the associated flares. We find that (1) the mean eruption speed is 792 km s−1 and the mean angular width is 59∘, compared to the values of 549 km s−1 and 77∘, respectively before the correction; (2) after the correction, the weak correlation between CME speeds and the GOES X-ray peak flux of the flares gets unexpectedly poorer; and (3) before correction, there is a weak correlation between the angular width and the speed of CMEs, whereas the correlation is absent after the correction.

Aims. We introduce a new model for coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that has been implemented in the magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) inner heliosphere model EUHFORIA. Utilising a linear force-free spheromak (LFFS) solution, the model provides an intrinsic magnetic field structure for the CME. As a result, the new model has the potential to predict the magnetic components of CMEs at Earth. In this paper, we present the implementation of the new model and show the capability of the new model. Methods. We present initial validation runs for the new magnetised CME model by considering the same set of events as used in the initial validation run of EUHFORIA that employed the Cone model. In particular, we have focused on modelling the CME that was responsible for creating the largest geomagnetic disturbance (Dst index). Two scenarios are discussed: one where a single magnetised CME is launched and another in which we launch all five Earth-directed CMEs that were observed during the considered time period. Four out of the five CMEs were modelled using the Cone model. Results. In the first run, where the propagation of a single magnetized CME is considered, we find that the magnetic field components at Earth are well reproduced as compared to in-situ spacecraft data. Considering a virtual spacecraft that is separated approximately seven heliographic degrees from the position of Earth, we note that the centre of the magnetic cloud is missing Earth and a considerably larger magnetic field strength can be found when shifting to that location. For the second run, launching four Cone CMEs and one LFFS CME, we notice that the simulated magnetised CME is arriving at the same time as in the corresponding full Cone model run. We find that to achieve this, the speed of the CME needs to be reduced in order to compensate for the expansion of the CME due to the addition of the magnetic field inside the CME. The reduced initial speed of the CME and the added magnetic field structure give rise to a very similar propagation of the CME with approximately the same arrival time at 1 au. In contrast to the Cone model, however, the magnetised CME is able to predict the magnetic field components at Earth. However, due to the interaction between the Cone model CMEs and the magnetised CME, the magnetic field amplitude is significantly lower than for the run using a single magnetised CME. Conclusions. We have presented the LFFS model that is able to simulate and predict the magnetic field components and the propagation of magnetised CMEs in the inner heliosphere and at Earth. We note that shifting towards a virtual spacecraft in the neighbourhood of Earth can give rise to much stronger magnetic field components. This gives the option of adding a grid of virtual spacecrafts to give a range of values for the magnetic field components.

A detailed analysis of the characteristics of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and flares associated with decameter-hectometer wavelength type-II radio bursts (hereafter DH-type-II radio bursts, DH-CMEs or radio-loud CMEs) observed in the period 1997 – 2008 is presented. A sample of 61 limb events is divided into two populations based on the residual acceleration: accelerating CMEs (a r>0) and decelerating CMEs (a r<0). We found that average speed (residual acceleration) of all limb DH-CMEs (called radio-loud CMEs) is nearly three (two) times greater than the average speed of the general population CMEs (radio-quiet CMEs). While the initial acceleration (a i) of the accelerating DH-CMEs is smaller than that of decelerating DH-CMEs (0.79 and 1.62 km s−2, respectively), the average speed and magnitude of residual acceleration of the accelerating and decelerating DH-CMEs are similar (〈V CME〉: 1254 km s−1 and 1303 km s−1; 〈a r〉: 0.026 km s−2 and 0.028 km s−2, respectively). The accelerating DH-CMEs attain their peak speed at larger heights than decelerating DH-CMEs. A good positive and negative linear correlation for accelerating and decelerating DH-CMEs (R a=0.74 and R d=−0.77, respectively) is found. The flares associated with accelerating DH-CME events have longer rise times and decay times than flares of decelerating DH-CME. The accelerating and decelerating DH-CMEs events associated with DH-type-II bursts have similar ending frequencies. The analysis of time lags between DH-type-II start and the flare onset shows that the delays are longer in accelerating DH-CMEs than decelerating DH-CMEs (P∼7 %). However, the time lags between the DH-type-II start and the CMEs onset are similar.

In this study, we present a new method for forecasting arrival times and speeds of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at any location in the inner heliosphere. This new approach enables the adoption of a highly flexible geometrical shape for the CME front with an adjustable CME angular width and an adjustable radius of curvature of its leading edge, i.e. the assumed geometry is elliptical. Using, as input, STEREO heliospheric imager (HI) observations, a new elliptic conversion (ElCon) method is introduced and combined with the use of drag-based model (DBM) fitting to quantify the deceleration or acceleration experienced by CMEs during propagation. The result is then used as input for the Ellipse Evolution Model (ElEvo). Together, ElCon, DBM fitting, and ElEvo form the novel ElEvoHI forecasting utility. To demonstrate the applicability of ElEvoHI, we forecast the arrival times and speeds of 21 CMEs remotely observed from STEREO/HI and compare them to in situ arrival times and speeds at 1 AU. Compared to the commonly used STEREO/HI fitting techniques (Fixed-$\Phi$, Harmonic Mean, and Self-similar Expansion fitting), ElEvoHI improves the arrival time forecast by about 2 hours to $\pm 6.5$ hours and the arrival speed forecast by $\approx 250$ km s$^{-1}$ to $\pm 53$ km s$^{-1}$, depending on the ellipse aspect ratio assumed. In particular, the remarkable improvement of the arrival speed prediction is potentially beneficial for predicting geomagnetic storm strength at Earth.

In situ observations of interplanetary (IP) coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and IP shocks are important to study as they are the main components of solar activity. Hundreds of IP shocks have been detected by various space missions at different times and heliocentric distances. Some of these are followed by clearly identified drivers, while some others are not. In this study, we carry out a statistical analysis of the distributions of plasma and magnetic parameters of the IP shocks recorded at various distances to the Sun. We classify the shocks according to the heliocentric distance, namely from 0.29 to 0.99 AU (Helios-1/2); near 1 AU (Wind, ACE, and STEREO-A/B); and from 1.35 to 5.4 AU (Ulysses). We also differentiate the IP shocks into two populations, those with a detected ICME and those without one. As expected, we find that there are no significant differences in the results from spacecraft positioned at 1 AU. Moreover, the distributions of shock parameters, as well as the shock normal, have no significant variations with the heliocentric distance. Additionally, we investigate how the number of shocks associated with stream-interaction regions (SIRs) increases with distance in the proportion to ICME/shocks. From 1 to 5 AU, SIRs/ shock occurrence increases slightly from 21% to 34%; in contrast, ICME/shock occurrence decreases from 47% to 17%. We also find indication of an asymmetry induced by the Parker spiral for SIRs and none for ICMEs.

Researchers have reported (i) correlations of coronal mass ejection (CME) speeds and the total photospheric magnetic flux swept out by flare ribbons in flare-associated eruptive events, and, separately, (ii) correlations of CME speeds and more rapid decay, with height, of magnetic fields in potential coronal models above eruption sites. Here, we compare the roles of both ribbon fluxes and the decay rates of overlying fields in a set of 16 eruptive events. We confirm previous results that higher CME speeds are associated with both larger ribbon fluxes and more rapidly decaying overlying fields. We find the association with ribbon fluxes to be weaker than a previous report, but stronger than the dependence on the decay rate of overlying fields. Since the photospheric ribbon flux is thought to approximate the amount of coronal magnetic flux reconnected during the event, the correlation of speeds with ribbon fluxes suggests that reconnection plays some role in accelerating CMEs. One possibility is that reconnected fields that wrap around the rising ejection produce an increased outward hoop force, thereby increasing CME acceleration. The correlation of CME speeds with more rapidly decaying overlying fields might be caused by greater downward magnetic tension in stronger overlying fields, which could act as a source of drag on rising ejections.

The propagation properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are crucial to predict its geomagnetic effect. A newly developed three dimensional (3D) mask fitting reconstruction method using coronagraph images from three viewpoints has been described and applied to the CME ejected on August 7, 2010. The CME's 3D localisation, real shape and morphological evolution are presented. Due to its interaction with the ambient solar wind, the morphology of this CME changed significantly in the early phase of evolution. Two hours after its initiation, it was expanding almost self-similarly. CME's 3D localisation is quite helpful to link remote sensing observations to in situ measurements. The investigated CME was propagating to Venus with its flank just touching STEREO B. Its corresponding ICME in the interplanetary space shows a possible signature of a magnetic cloud with a preceding shock in VEX observations, while from STEREO B only a shock is observed. We have calculated three principle axes for the reconstructed 3D CME cloud. The orientation of the major axis is in general consistent with the orientation of a filament (polarity inversion line) observed by SDO/AIA and SDO/HMI. The flux rope axis derived by the MVA analysis from VEX indicates a radial-directed axis orientation. It might be that locally only the leg of the flux rope passed through VEX. The height and speed profiles from the Sun to Venus are obtained. We find that the CME speed possibly had been adjusted to the speed of the ambient solar wind flow after leaving COR2 field of view and before arriving Venus. A southward deflection of the CME from the source region is found from the trajectory of the CME geometric center. We attribute it to the influence of the coronal hole where the fast solar wind emanated from.

We present an analysis of widths and kinematic properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) obtained via a supervised image segmentation algorithm, the CORonal SEgmentation Technique (CORSET), on simultaneous observations from the two COR2 telescopes on the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) mission, from 2007 May to 2014 September. The sample of 460 events with measurements from two vantage points offers the opportunity to test the accuracy and constraints of single-viewpoint properties that underlie the bulk of CME research to date. In addition, we examine the dependence of the properties on the morphology of the events. The main findings are as follows. (1) The radial speeds derived from different perspectives are in good agreement with a relatively low intrinsic uncertainty of 39%. (2) Projection effects are more important for determination of CME width rather than for speed. (3) The expansion speeds depend on CME morphology, with loop-type CMEs expanding twice as fast as flux-rope CMEs, possibly underpinning the more explosive nature. (4) Triangulations of CME speed and propagation direction are optimal from viewpoints separated by 60°–90°; e.g., between the Lagrangian points L1 and L5 (or L4). (5) The projected speeds are underestimated, on average, by at least 20% when compared to their deprojected (triangulated) values. We also discuss in detail the lessons learned from the application of the CORSET algorithm to event tracking. Our findings should hopefully be a useful guide in the use of (semi)automated algorithms for extraction of CME physical parameters and in the interpretation of single-viewpoint observations (likely to be the norm after the end of the STEREO mission).

Abstract. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are related to many phenomena (e.g. flares, solar energetic particles, geomagnetic storms), thus compiling of event catalogs is important for a global understanding these phenomena. CMEs have been identified manually for a long time, but in the SOHO era, automatic identification methods are being developed. In order to clarify the advantage and disadvantage of the manual and automatic CME catalogs, we examined the distributions of CME properties listed in the CDAW (manual) and CACTus (automatic) catalogs. Both catalogs have a good agreement on the wide CMEs (width&gt;120°) in their properties, while there is a significant discrepancy on the narrow CMEs (width≤30°): CACTus has a larger number of narrow CMEs than CDAW. We carried out an event-by-event examination of a sample of events and found that the CDAW catalog have missed many narrow CMEs during the solar maximum. Another significant discrepancy was found on the fast CMEs (speed&gt;1000 km/s): the majority of the fast CDAW CMEs are wide and originate from low latitudes, while the fast CACTus CMEs are narrow and originate from all latitudes. Event-by-event examination of a sample of events suggests that CACTus has a problem on the detection of the fast CMEs.

[1] We analyze the dynamics of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) through the interplanetary medium from the lower solar corona to ∼5.3 AU. Our analysis uses a one-dimensional hydrodynamical model derived from the fluid equation of motion that considers an effective drag force under both the laminar and turbulent hypotheses (low and high Reynolds number, respectively). The model has three sets of input parameters. The first set is related to the ICME itself, i. e., initial speed and mass; the second set of parameters is related to the ambient solar wind: density and velocity; and the final set corresponds to the ambient solar wind–ICME interaction: an ICME expansion factor and a viscosity or drag parameter. We use this model to explain the radial dynamics of a particular ICME detected at three different locations: close to the Sun, where the ICME was ejected on 20 January 2004, and detected by the SOHO/LASCO coronagraphs; two days later, at Earth's L1 by the ACE spacecraft (∼1.0 AU), and finally, ∼14 days later, at ∼5.3 AU by the Ulysses spacecraft near Jupiter's orbit. The model is then compared to a general set of ICMEs data from Ulysses that cover distances from ∼1.3 AU to ∼5.3 AU. Our model successfully reproduces the dynamical behavior of ICMEs at distances near Earth's orbit and works reasonably well at larger distances ≈5.3 AU. Therefore, our analysis shows that the ICME - solar wind interaction may be treated as a drag interaction with the appropriate drag factors, not only at distances ≤1 AU, but at larger distances. Finally, we show that our model is useful in identifying ICMEs at different heliocentric distances.