Recovering speciation and extinction dynamics based on phylogenies

Phylogenetic trees often depart from the expectations of stochastic models, exhibiting imbalance in diversification among lineages and slowdowns in the rate of lineage accumulation through time. Such departures have led to a widespread perception that ecological differences among species or adaptation and subsequent niche filling are required to explain patterns of diversification. However, a key element missing from models of diversification is the geographical context of speciation and extinction. In this study, we develop a spatially explicit model of geographic range evolution and cladogenesis, where speciation arises via vicariance or peripatry, and explore the effects of these processes on patterns of diversification. We compare the results with those observed in 41 reconstructed avian trees. Our model shows that nonconstant rates of speciation and extinction are emergent properties of the apportioning of geographic ranges that accompanies speciation. The dynamics of diversification exhibit wide variation, depending on the mode of speciation, tendency for range expansion, and rate of range evolution. By varying these parameters, the model is able to capture many, but not all, of the features exhibited by birth-death trees and extant bird clades. Under scenarios with relatively stable geographic ranges, strong slowdowns in diversification rates are produced, with faster rates of range dynamics leading to constant or accelerating rates of apparent diversification. A peripatric model of speciation with stable ranges also generates highly unbalanced trees typical of bird phylogenies but fails to produce realistic range size distributions among the extant species. Results most similar to those of a birth-death process are reached under a peripatric speciation scenario with highly volatile range dynamics. Taken together, our results demonstrate that considering the geographical context of speciation and extinction provides a more conservative null model of diversification and offers a very different perspective on the phylogenetic patterns expected in the absence of ecology.

Species diversity patterns are governed by complex interactions among biotic and abiotic factors over time and space, but are essentially the result of the diversification dynamics (differential speciation and extinction rates) over the long‐term evolutionary history of a clade. Previous studies have suggested that temporal variation in global temperature drove long‐term diversity changes in Crocodylia, a monophyletic group of large ectothermic organisms. We use a large database of crocodylian fossil occurrences (192 spp.) and body mass estimations, under a taxic approach, to characterize the global diversification dynamics of crocodylians since the Cretaceous, and their correlation with multiple biotic and abiotic factors in a Bayesian framework. The diversification dynamic of crocodylians, which appears to have originated in the Turonian (c. 92.5 Ma), is characterized by several phases with high extinction and speciation rates within a predominantly low long‐term mean rate. Our results reveal long‐term diversification dynamics of Crocodylia to be a highly complex process driven by a combination of biotic and abiotic factors which influenced the speciation and extinction rates in dissimilar ways. Higher crocodylian extinction rates are related to low body mass disparity, indicating selective extinctions of taxa at both ends of the body mass spectrum. Speciation rate slowdowns are noted when the diversity of the clade is high and the warm temperate climatic belt is reduced. Our finding supports the idea that temporal variations of body mass disparity, self‐diversity, and the warm climate belt size provided more direct mechanistic explanations for crocodylian diversification than do proxies of global temperature.

Multilabeled trees or MUL-trees, for short, are trees whose leaves are labeled by elements of some nonempty finite set X such that more than one leaf may be labeled by the same element of X. This class of trees includes phylogenetic trees and tree shapes. MUL-trees arise naturally in, for example, biogeography and gene evolution studies and also in the area of phylogenetic network reconstruction. In this paper, we introduce novel metrics which may be used to compare MUL-trees, most of which generalize well-known metrics on phylogenetic trees and tree shapes. These metrics can be used, for example, to better understand the space of MUL-trees or to help visualize collections of MUL-trees. In addition, we describe some relationships between the MUL-tree metrics that we present and also give some novel diameter bounds for these metrics. We conclude by briefly discussing some open problems as well as pointing out how MUL-tree metrics may be used to define metrics on the space of phylogenetic networks.

Phylogenies reconstructed from gene sequences can be used to investigate the tempo and mode of species diversification. Here we develop and use new statistical methods to infer past patterns of speciation and extinction from molecular phylogenies. Specifically, we test the null hypothesis that per-lineage speciation and extinction rates have remained constant through time. Rejection of this hypothesis may provide evidence for evolutionary events such as adaptive radiations or key adaptations. In contrast to previous approaches, our methods are robust to incomplete taxon sampling and are conservative with respect to extinction. Using simulation we investigate, first, the adverse effects of failing to take incomplete sampling into account and, second, the power and reliability of our tests. When applied to published phylogenies our tests suggest that, in some cases, speciation rates have decreased through time.

A new species of Arbacia (Echinoidea, Arbacioida), A. ballenensis sp. nov., from the Late PlioceneEarly Pleistocene of Baja California Norte, Mxico, is described from a series of 62 specimens ranging in size from 6 to 20 mm test diameter. It differs from all extant species in the genus by its high number of interambulacral plates, numerous small interambulacral tubercles, and the size of the interambulacral tags at the peristomial edge. This new species yields new evidence concerning the diversification of the genus along the Pacific coast of North America where previously, only one extinct species was described, Arbacia abiquaensis from the Oligocene of Oregon. A. ballenensis sp. nov. is closely related to the recently described Arbacia quyllur from the late Miocene of Chile. Study of the new species in the context of events such as the mid-Pleistocene Transition helps shed light on patterns of extinction and speciation within the genus.

Whatever criteria are used to measure evolutionary success – species numbers, geographic range, ecological abundance, ecological and life history diversity, background diversification rates, or the presence of rapidly evolving clades – the legume family is one of the most successful lineages of flowering plants. Despite this, we still know rather little about the dynamics of lineage and species diversification across the family through the Cenozoic, or about the underlying drivers of diversification. There have been few attempts to estimate net species diversification rates or underlying speciation and extinction rates for legume clades, to test whether among-lineage variation in diversification rates deviates from null expectations, or to locate species diversification rate shifts on specific branches of the legume phylogenetic tree. In this study, time-calibrated phylogenetic trees for a set of species-rich legume clades – Calliandra, Indigofereae, Lupinus, Mimosa and Robinieae – and for the legume family as a whole, are used to explore how we might approach these questions. These clades are analysed using recently developed maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods to detect species diversification rate shifts and test for among-lineage variation in speciation, extinction and net diversification rates. Possible explanations for rate shifts in terms of extrinsic factors and/or intrinsic trait evolution are discussed. In addition, several methodological issues and limitations associated with these analyses are highlighted emphasizing the potential to improve our understanding of the evolutionary dynamics of legume diversification by using much more densely sampled phylogenetic trees that integrate information across broad taxonomic, geographical and temporal levels.

The topic of this thesis is the latitudinal diversity gradient: the general increase in numbers of species from high latitudes towards the equator. Although it is a well-documented and very general pattern, there is little consensus among biologists as to the causes of high tropical species richness. In Chapter 1 I give an overview of the latitudinal diversity gradient and hypotheses proposed to explain it, and outline a framework for developing and testing hypotheses. The emphasis in this thesis is on non-equilibrium hypotheses, and in particular on the idea that rates of species diversification are higher at low latitudes. In Chapter 2 I directly test the hypothesis that rates of species diversification increase towards the equator, using the phylogenetic method of sister-group comparisons. For birds and butterflies, 1 show that there does indeed appear to be an increase in rates of diversification towards lower latitudes. One possible explanation for this pattern links climatic conditions at low latitudes to faster speciation, via a causal chain which includes a higher rate of molecular evolution. In Chapter 3 I test the prediction that rates of molecular evolution are faster at low latitudes, using phylogenies reconstructed from DNA sequence data for birds. Although the results provide no evidence for a latitudinal effect on rates of cytb and ND2 evolution in birds, this chapter demonstrates a way in which further tests on a wider range of genes and taxa can be carried out as more sequence data becomes available. If rates of diversification are higher in the tropics, this may result from latitudinal gradients in life history traits which could influence rates of speciation or extinction. However, previous attempts to test for such patterns have rarely controlled for phylogenetic relationships among species, and have never controlled for geographic range overlap. In Chapter 4 I present a method for analyzing latitudinal variation in life history traits which takes both of these problems into account. For birds, this method indicates strong latitudinal variation in geographic range size and clutch size, less strong variation in body size and niche width, and no variation in the strength of sexual selection. While this does not prove that life history plays a part in generating the latitudinal diversity gradient, a robust demonstration of latitudinal variation in life history traits is an important prerequisite for any hypotheses which link life history with high tropical species richness. Speciation and extinction rates are believed to vary with species' life history and ecology. If speciation or extinction rates also vary with latitude, we should expect species with certain traits to show stronger latitudinal diversity gradients than others. We should also expect to see latitudinal variation in the macroecological structure of species assemblages. Chapters 5 and 6 confirm these expectations. In Chapter 5 I show that smaller-bodied bird species have steeper latitudinal diversity gradients than larger species. This is reflected in systematic latitudinal variation in the shape of body size frequency distributions, usually thought to be relatively consistent across regions. In Chapter 6 I show that body size - abundance relationships in the Australian marsupial fauna differ considerably between temperate and tropical subsets of the fauna. Whereas the temperate species display the typical negative relationship, the tropical species show no significant relationship. This pattern is consistent with the explanation that extinction rates vary with respect to body size, abundance and the latitude in which a species occurs. Together, the results of the analyses presented in this thesis provide evidence in favour of the non-equilibrium view that there are more species in the tropics because rates of species diversification are higher. It seems likely that this is due to latitudinal variation in environmental conditions, leading to latitudinal variation in species' life histories and the structure of species assemblages, and to latitudinal variation in rates of speciation or extinction. However, it is still difficult to judge whether it is variation in speciation rate (cradle model) or extinction rate (museum model) which is of primary importance, or if both are equally important. Further work on this question, applying the large-scale comparative methodology used here, will be necessary to progress towards a full understanding of the high species richness of the tropics.

Squamates may be an attractive group in which to study the influence of sex chromosomes on speciation rates because of the repeated evolution of heterogamety (both XY and ZW), as well as an apparently large number of taxa with environmental sex-determination.

Speciation and extinction rates can be estimated from molecular phylogenies. Recently, a number of methods have been published showing that these rates can be estimated even if the phylogeny is incomplete, that is, if not all extant species are included. We show that the accuracy of such methods strongly depends on making the correct assumptions about how the sampling process was performed. We focus on phylogenies that are incomplete because some subclades (e.g., genera and families) are each represented as a single lineage. We show that previous methods implicitly assumed that such subclades are defined by randomly (or in an extreme deterministic way) choosing the edges that define the subclades from the complete species phylogeny. We show that these methods produce biased results if higher taxa are defined in a different manner. We introduce strict higher level phylogenies where subclades are defined so that the phylogeny is fully resolved from its origin to time x(cut), and fully unresolved thereafter, so that for all subclades, stem age > x(cut) > crown age. We present estimates of speciation and extinction rates from a phylogeny of birds in which this subclade definition was applied. However, for most higher level phylogenies in the literature, it is unclear how higher taxa were defined, but often such phylogenies can be easily transformed into strict higher level phylogenies, as we illustrate by estimating speciation and extinction rates from a near-complete but only partly resolved species-level phylogeny of mammals. The accuracy of our methods is verified using simulations.

Extinction in the Anthropocene.

Understanding the processes that underlie biodiversity requires insight into the evolutionary history of the taxa involved. Accurate estimation of speciation, extinction, and diversification rates is a prerequisite for gaining this insight. Here, we develop a stochastic birth-death model of speciation and extinction that predicts the probability distribution of both extinct and extant numbers of species in a clade. We present two estimation methods based on this model given data on the number of extinct species (from the fossil record) and extant species (from diversity assessments): a multivariate method of moments approach and a maximum-likelihood approach. We show that, except for some special cases, the two estimation methods produce very similar estimates. This is convenient, because the usually preferred maximum-likelihood approach is much more computationally demanding, so the method of moments can serve as a proxy. Furthermore, we introduce a correction for possible bias that can arise by the mere fact that we will normally only consider extant clades. We find that in some cases the bias correction affects the estimates profoundly. Finally, we show how our model can be extended to incorporate incomplete preservation. Preservation rates can, however, not be reliably estimated on the basis of numbers of extant and extinct species alone.

Determining whether speciation and extinction rates depend on the state of a particular character has been of long-standing interest to evolutionary biologists. To assess the effect of a character on diversification rates using likelihood methods requires that we be able to calculate the probability that a group of extant species would have evolved as observed, given a particular model of the character's effect. Here we describe how to calculate this probability for a phylogenetic tree and a two-state (binary) character under a simple model of evolution (the "BiSSE" model, binary-state speciation and extinction). The model involves six parameters, specifying two speciation rates (rate when the lineage is in state 0; rate when in state 1), two extinction rates (when in state 0; when in state 1), and two rates of character state change (from 0 to 1, and from 1 to 0). Using these probability calculations, we can do maximum likelihood inference to estimate the model's parameters and perform hypothesis tests (e.g., is the rate of speciation elevated for one character state over the other?). We demonstrate the application of the method using simulated data with known parameter values.

ObjectivesThis study examines how speciation and extinction rates vary across primates, with a focus on the recent macroevolutionary dynamics that have shaped extant primate biodiversity.Materials and methodsLineage‐specific macroevolutionary rates were estimated for each tip in a tree containing 307 species using a hidden‐state likelihood model. Differences in tip rates among major clades were evaluated using phylogenetic ANOVA. Differences among diurnal, nocturnal, and cathemeral lineages were also evaluated, based on previous work indicating that activity pattern influences primate diversification.ResultsRate variation in extant primates is low within clades and high between clades. As in previous studies, cercopithecoids stand out in having high net diversification rates, driven by high speciation rates and very low extinction rates. Platyrrhines combine high speciation and high extinction rates, giving them high rates of lineage turnover. Strepsirrhines and tarsiids have low rates of speciation, extinction, turnover, and net diversification. Hominoids are intermediate between platyrrhines and the strepsirrhine‐tarsiid group, and there is evidence for differentiation between hominids and hylobatids. Diurnal lineages have significantly higher speciation rates than nocturnal lineages.ConclusionsRecent anthropoid macroevolution has been characterized by marked variation in diversification dynamics among clades. Strepsirrhines and tarsiids are more uniform, despite divergent evolutionary and biogeographic histories. Higher speciation rates in diurnal lineages may be driven by greater ecological opportunity or reliance on visual signals for mate recognition. However, the differences among anthropoids indicate that factors other than activity pattern (e.g., clade competition, historical contingency) have had a more influential role in shaping recent primate diversification.

The taxonomic evolution of Jurassic and Cretaceous calcareous nannofossil species is described using the following indices: species diversity, rate of speciation, rate of extinction, rate of diversification, rate of turnover, survivorship, and species accretion. The Jurassic prior to the late Oxfordian is characterized by positive diversification rates, that is, rates of speciation exceeded rates of extinction. Highest rates of diversification occurred in the late Lias and early Oxfordian. During the generally regressive latest Jurassic, diversification rates remained low and rates of extinctions exceed rates of speciation. In the early Cretaceous, rates of diversification are positive and peak in the early Valanginian, early Aptian, and middle Albian, after which time rates of extinction generally exceed rates of speciation. Such peaks in rate of evolution coincide with times of increased accumulation of organic carbon in the ocean (“anoxic events”). Peaks in rates of extinction result in very high rates of turnover during times of major regressions, in particular, in the Tithonian and Maastrichtian. Survivorship analyses for three datum planes (74.5, 144, and 160 Ma) show relatively constant extinction rates with some stepping in the older part; they are best explained by a temporally fluctuating abiotic environment causing changes in the probability of extinction. Species accretion curves are also relatively linear with some indication of changing rates of speciation. The coincidences of major changes in evolutionary rates with major paleoceanographic events are indicative of a predominantly abiotic control of nannoplankton evolution. Relationships of evolutionary rates of calcareous nannoplankton with deep ocean ventilation, sea level, and ocean fertility indicates that global tectonic processes are the ultimate causes of evolutionary change.

Phylogenetic trees are a central tool in many areas of life science and medicine. They demonstrate evolutionary patterns among species, genes, and patterns of ancestry among sets of individuals. The tree shapes and branch lengths of phylogenetic trees encode evolutionary and epidemiological information. To extract information from tree shapes and branch lengths, representation and comparison methods for phylogenetic trees are needed. Representing and comparing tree shapes and branch lengths of phylogenetic trees are challenging, for a tree shape is unlabeled and can be displayed in numerous different forms, and branch lengths of a tree shape are specific to edges whose positions vary with respect to the displayed forms of the tree shape. In this article, we introduce representation and comparison methods for rooted unlabeled phylogenetic trees based on a tree lattice that serves as a coordinate system for rooted binary trees with branch lengths and a graph polynomial that fully characterizes tree shapes. We show that the introduced tree representations and metrics provide distance-based likelihood-free methods for tree clustering, parameter estimation, and model selection and apply the methods to analyze phylogenies reconstructed from virus sequences. [Graph polynomial; likelihood-free inference; phylogenetics; tree lattice; tree metrics.].