Red flags: correlates of impaired species recovery

Numerous processes influence community structure. The relative importance of these processes is thought to vary with spatial, temporal and taxonomic scales: density-dependent interactions are thought to be most important at small scales; at intermediate scales, environmental conditions may be the most influential factor; and biogeographic processes are thought to be of greater importance at larger scales. Additionally, the stress-dominance hypothesis suggests that communities experiencing harsher environmental conditions will be predominantly structured by habitat filtering, whereas communities experiencing more favourable conditions will be structured predominantly by density-dependent interactions such as competition. The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of environmental factors on phylogenetic community structure (PCS) of North American desert bats at multiple spatial and taxonomic scales. We also examined whether the stress-dominance hypothesis is upheld in desert bats across an environmental gradient. Phylogenetic community structure metrics were calculated using species pools that differed in spatial (from all deserts to individual deserts) and taxonomic (all bat taxa, a single family and a single genus) scales. We calculated mean temperature, precipitation and seasonality for each site to determine whether environmental gradients were related to degree of community structure. At the largest spatial and taxonomic scales, communities were significantly phylogenetically clustered while degree of clustering decreased at the smallest spatial and taxonomic scales. Climatic data, particularly mean temperature and temperature seasonality, were important predictors of PCS at larger scales and under harsher conditions, but at smaller scales and in less stressful conditions there was a weaker relationship between PCS and climate. This suggests that North American deserts, while harsh, are not uniform in the challenges they present to the faunas residing in them. Overall, the relationship between PCS and climatic data at large spatial and taxonomic scales, and in harsher conditions, suggests the influence of habitat filtering has been important in North American desert bat community assembly and that other processes have been important at smaller scales.

Even if they cannot readily recall its exact definition or its particular historical impacts, governments, media outlets, communities, and weather-sensitive economic sectors are for the most part aware of El Niño as a potential threat to society. The quasi-periodic oceanic extreme is no longer the unexplained phenomenon that it was as recently as the late 1960s, when it was first determined to be a tropical Pacific Ocean basin-wide event (Bjerknes 1969).Since that time, El Niño has come to be commonly viewed as another expression of climate variability on a sub-decadal scale, much as is the flow of the seasons at the annual scale. As with seasonal flows, El Niño, though more irregular in its timing, provides close observers who have been forewarned about its aperiodic onset and likely impacts with a degree of forecast reliability. To be sure, El Niño today almost invariably appears in media headlines as a red flag in countries at risk of the hydrometeorological hazards each event is known to produce. At this point, social media is also abuzz with concern when an El Niño forms, especially with regard to its impacts.El Niños always yield new social and physical scientific research findings that provide insights for policymakers. They also tend to expose societal strengths and weaknesses and afford lessons for decision makers on how better to prepare for and respond to future event forecasts, impacts, and recovery efforts. Additionally, being adequately prepared for the extremes of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which are marked by anomalously warm or cold sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific, will benefit societal coping capabilities within a warming global climate, especially in terms of the variability and extremes that are predicted to accompany an altered climate regime.KeywordsENSOClimate changeReadinessForecastingImpactsEl Nino

The various effects of climate change pose major threats to biodiversity, increasing the risk of local and regional extinction of species. This study evaluates the effect of climate change on the risk of extinction and vulnerability of 18 species of epiphyllous (leaf-inhabiting) liverworts, a guild sensitive to environmental changes. The area of environmental suitability for typical Neotropical epiphyllous liverworts was evaluated under optimistic (SSP126) and pessimistic (SSP585) future climate scenarios (2080–2100) using bioclimatic variables and the MaxEnt algorithm, with a focus on Colombia. The vulnerability analysis was performed by integrating spatial and climate niche metrics, while the risk of extinction was based on the potential and projected distribution in future scenarios using the values of relative loss of extent of suitability area and area of occupancy (AOO), according to the IUCN Criterion A3(c). Climate change will have significant impacts on the community because the area of environmental suitability of most of the species evaluated (89%) will have declined in future scenarios. An extreme example is Bromeliophila helenae, which will lose 97.12% of its total area of suitability, and the proportion of suitable area protected within Protected Areas (PAs) will be reduced by ca. 80%. Although only five species are currently found within PAs, these PAs play an important role because the area of environmental suitability will increase in future scenarios, particularly in the Caribbean and Orinoco regions. The risk of extinction of almost all species (95%) evaluated will increase in future scenarios, especially in the Andes, a region with potential to act as a refuge for specialist liverwort species. The results of this study highlight the urgent need to develop conservation strategies that include the expansion of the number of PAs and greater efficiency in the management of the existing PAs.

**Abstract:** To prevent additional seabird extinctions, conservation practitioners need to know what species to focus on, what actions to take, and where to take them. We created a spatially explicit meta-population viability analysis (mPVA) model for all IUCN threatened (Critically Endangered, Endangered, Vulnerable) seabirds. We generated the model parameters by combining a global database on the breeding location, population meta structure, and anthropogenic threats to seabirds with a detailed seabird demographic and population database. Potential conservation interventions can be entered into the model to estimate the change they will have on extinction risk. We completed an extinction risk analysis for 94 insular threatened seabird species to determine which species are at Extreme (>75% of model runs predicted species extinction) or High (50 - 75% of model runs predicted species extinction) risk of extinction within 100 years. Our analysis identifies five conservation priorities and opportunities: 1) seabird species at extreme or high risk of extinction in the next century, 2) families of seabirds (Procellarids) that include the largest proportion of species with extreme or high risks of extinction, 3) the potential for mitigation of extinction risk to be gained by conducting all feasible eradications of damaging invasive vertebrates on at least one breeding island of extreme/high risk seabirds, 4) the potential for mitigation of extinction risk to be gained by conducting translocations/reintroductions to establish/re-establish breeding colonies of extreme/high risk seabirds, and 5) opportunities where innovation of new tools or competencies will significantly reduce the probability of extinction of threatened seabirds. **Authors:** Donald Croll¹, Kelly Zilliacus¹, M. Tim Tinker², Diana Ruiz¹, Bernie Tershy¹ ¹University of California, Santa Cruz, ²Nhydra Ecological Consulting

Sessile marine invertebrate (biofouling) communities have served as an important model in ecology for evaluating fundamental patterns and processes, including invasion dynamics, which vary at broad spatial and temporal scales. Here, we tested for differences in biofouling community development among three biogeographically distinct bays in North America (Chesapeake Bay, Tampa Bay, and San Francisco Bay), exploring possible explanations for differential non-native species success. In particular, we aimed to examine if San Francisco Bay (a global hotspot for non-native species richness) differed in composition and space occupation, especially since open space can facilitate colonization. Additionally, we explored how biogeography, assembly and succession dynamics over the short and long term, and space availability affect marine communities across broad spatial scales. Patterns of community assembly differed among bays, with more bare space and less secondary cover (species settling on species) in San Francisco Bay. San Francisco Bay was also distinguished by a higher percent cover of Tunicata (almost all of which are non-native and historically absent) over multiple time scales. Cirripedia recruited on bare panels in all three Bays but cover increased only in Tampa Bay, as soak time increased. Tube-dwelling Polychaeta distinguished Chesapeake Bay from Tampa Bay and San Francisco Bay. Low-salinity events temporarily restructured the communities in all three bays. Whether differences among bays reflect coastal versus bay-specific patterns remains to be tested.

IntroductionPhylogenetic relatedness is one of the important factors in the community assembly process. Here, we aimed to understand the large-scale phylogenetic relationship between alien plant species at different stages of the invasion process and how these relationships change in response to the environmental filtering process at multiple spatial scales and different phylogenetic extents.MethodsWe identified the alien species in three invasion stages, namely invasive, naturalized, and introduced, in China. The occurrence records of the species were used to quantify two abundance-based phylogenetic metrics [the net relatedness index (NRI) and the nearest taxon index (NTI)] from a highly resolved phylogenetic tree. The metrics were compared between the three categories of alien species. Generalized linear models were used to test the effect of climate on the phylogenetic pattern. All analyses were conducted at four spatial scales and for three major angiosperm families.ResultsWe observed significantly higher NRI and NTI values at finer spatial scales, indicating the formation of more clustered assemblages of phylogenetically closely related species in response to the environmental filtering process. Positive NTI values for the invasive and naturalized aliens suggested that the presence of a close relative in the community may help the successful naturalization and invasion of the introduced alien species. In the two-dimensional phylogenetic space, the invasive species communities significantly differed from the naturalized and introduced species, indicating that established alien species need to be phylogenetically different to become invasive. Positive phylogenetic measures for the invasive aliens across the spatial scales suggested that the presence of invasive aliens could facilitate the establishment of other invasive species. Phylogenetic relatedness was more influenced by temperature than precipitation, especially at a finer spatial scale. With decreased temperature, the invasive species showed a more clustered assemblage, indicating conservatism of their phylogenetic niche. The phylogenetic pattern was different at the family level, although there was a consistent tendency across families to form more clustered assemblages.DiscussionOverall, our study showed that the community assemblage became more clustered with the progression of the invasion process. The phylogenetic measures varied at spatial and taxonomic scales, thereby highlighting the importance of assessing phylogenetic patterns at different gradients of the community assembly process.

Patterns of spatial genetic variation can be generated by a variety of ecological processes, including individual preferences based on habitat. These ecological processes act at multiple spatial and temporal scales, generating scale-dependent effects on gene flow. In this study, we focused on bobcats (Lynx rufus), a highly mobile, generalist felid that exhibits ecological and behavioral plasticity, high abundance, and broad connectivity across much of their range. However, bobcats also show genetic differentiation along habitat breaks, a pattern typically observed in cases of isolation-by-ecology (IBE). The IBE observed in bobcats is hypothesized to occur due to habitat-biased dispersal, but it is unknown if this occurs at other habitat breaks across their range or at what spatial scale IBE becomes most apparent. Thus, we used a multiscale approach to examine isolation by ecology (IBE) patterns in bobcats (Lynx rufus) at both fine and broad spatial scales in western Texas. We genotyped 102 individuals at nine microsatellite loci and used partial redundancy analysis (pRDA) to test if a suite of landscape variables influenced genetic variation in bobcats. Bobcats exhibited a latitudinal cline in population structure with a spatial signature of male-biased dispersal, and no clear barriers to gene flow. Our pRDA tests revealed high genetic similarity in similar habitats, and results differed by spatial scale. At the fine spatial scale, herbaceous rangeland was an important influence on gene flow whereas mixed rangeland and agriculture were significant at the broad spatial scale. Taken together, our results suggests that complex interactions between spatial-use behavior and landscape heterogeneity can create non-random gene flow in highly mobile species like bobcats. Furthermore, our results add to the growing body of data highlighting the importance of multiscale study designs when assessing spatial genetic structure.

AimBiodiversity hotspots are regions with the highest species richness, and the most threatened species. Previous studies have shown that the extinction risk may be more related to evolutionary history than to species' traits. However, there is a knowledge gap on the relationship between evolutionary history and species extinction risk in biodiversity hotspots. Here, we link evolutionary history to species extinction risk for flowering plants (angiosperms) in global biodiversity hotspots.LocationGlobal biodiversity hotspots.MethodsWe calculated historical evolutionary measures (family species richness, family age, family diversification rate and the ratio of crown age to stem age) of angiosperms from 36 global biodiversity hotspots, which were grouped into 27 regions. Bayesian binomial‐logit univariate and multivariable regression models in conjunction with phylogenetic control and null models were used to identify the evolutionary history predictors of extinction risk for the 27 regions as a whole and for each of the regions.ResultsFamily species richness, family age and family diversification rate are all good indicators for predicting extinction risk. Specifically, when all the 27 regions were considered as a whole, families with higher species richness, older age and/or faster diversification rates have a higher risk of species extinction. However, high extinction risk in some regions, especially in temperate regions, tends to occur in families with low species richness and low diversification rates.Main conclusionsGeographic origin and evolutionary history of species should be jointly taken into account in conservation planning. In general, protection priority should be given to families with high species richness, ancient origins and fast diversification rate because these families seem to be prone to higher extinction risk. Additionally, different strategies should be applied to protect biodiversity in temperate versus tropical regions given that factors affecting extinction risk are different between these regions.

Threat mapping is a necessary tool for identifying and abating direct threats to species in the ongoing extinction crisis. There are known gaps in the threat mapping literature for particular threats and geographic locations, and it remains unclear if the distribution of research effort is appropriately targeted relative to conservation need. We aimed to determine the drivers of threat mapping research effort and to quantify gaps that, if filled, could inform actions with the highest potential to reduce species' extinction risk. We used a negative binomial generalized linear model to analyze research effort as a function of threat abatement potential (quantified as the potential reduction in species extinction risk from abating threats), species richness, land area, and human pressure. The model showed that threat mapping research effort increased by 1.1 to 1.2 times per standardized unit change in threat abatement potential. However, species richness and land area were stronger predictors of research effort overall. The greatest areas of mismatch between research effort and threat abatement potential, receiving disproportionately low research effort, were related to the threats to species of agriculture, aquaculture, and biological resource use across the tropical regions of the Americas, Asia, and Madagascar. Conversely, the threat of linear infrastructure (e.g., roads and rails) across regions, the threat of biological resource use (e.g., hunting or collection) in sub-Saharan Africa, and overall threats in North America and Europe all received disproportionately high research effort. We discuss the range of methodological and sociopolitical factors that may be behind the overall trends and specific areas of mismatch we found. We urge a stronger emphasis on targeting research effort toward those threats and geographic locations where threat abatement activities could make the greatest contribution to reducing global species extinction risk.

Partitioning the effects of deterministic and stochastic processes on species extinction risk

Insights into animal behaviour play an increasingly central role in species-focused conservation practice. However, progress towards incorporating behaviour into regional or global conservation strategies has been more limited, not least because standardized datasets of behavioural traits are generally lacking at wider taxonomic or spatial scales. Here we make use of the recent expansion of global datasets for birds to assess the prospects for including behavioural traits in systematic conservation priority-setting and monitoring programmes. Using International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List classifications for more than 9500 bird species, we show that the incidence of threat can vary substantially across different behavioural categories, and that some types of behaviour—including particular foraging, mating and migration strategies—are significantly more threatened than others. The link between behavioural traits and extinction risk is partly driven by correlations with well-established geographical and ecological factors (e.g. range size, body mass, human population pressure), but our models also reveal that behaviour modifies the effect of these factors, helping to explain broad-scale patterns of extinction risk. Overall, these results suggest that a multi-species approach at the scale of communities, continents and ecosystems can be used to identify and monitor threatened behaviours, and to flag up cases of latent extinction risk, where threatened status may currently be underestimated. Our findings also highlight the importance of comprehensive standardized descriptive data for ecological and behavioural traits, and point the way towards deeper integration of behaviour into quantitative conservation assessments.This article is part of the theme issue ‘Linking behaviour to dynamics of populations and communities: application of novel approaches in behavioural ecology to conservation’.

Monitoring progress toward meeting global biodiversity goals involves several indicators, including, at the species level, the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List Index (RLI) and the Living Planet Index (LPI). However, at present, there is no indicator specifically for tracking species recovery, despite this being enshrined in the mission of the Convention on Biological Diversity's Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF). The IUCN recently adopted the Green Status of Species (GSS), a global standard for measuring species recovery and for assessing the role played by conservation in species recovery. An index based on GSS has been adopted as an indicator for multiple elements of GBF. However, a methodology underpinning the index itself has not previously been published or elaborated. We have therefore developed the Green Status Index of Species Recovery (GSI) for use as a global indicator of progress toward species recovery. We devised GSI to reflect the uncertainties of the underlying GSS assessments and developed methods to disaggregate its global value to reflect the contribution of each country to the recovery of the species within its borders. Overall, we designed the GSI to exhibit key attributes of an effective global indicator, including an explicit objective aligned with global biodiversity goals and a sound methodological basis. The GSI complements existing indicators, such as RLI and LPI, because it fills an important niche in measuring biodiversity trends, going beyond extinction risk and population abundance. As a test, we applied the GSI to a set of species and found that these species were less than halfway to full recovery and moved farther away from full recovery since the mid‐20th century. Although the deployment of GSI for complete taxonomic groups will require a considerable scaling up of effort, a sampled approach is feasible and can be operational by 2030.

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List Index (RLI) is used to measure trends in extinction risk of species over time. The development of 2 red lists for Spanish vascular flora during the past decade allowed us to apply the IUCN RLI to vascular plants in an area belonging to a global biodiversity hotspot. We used the Spanish Red Lists from 2000 and 2010 to assess changes in level of threat at a national scale and at the subnational scales of Canary Islands, Balearic Islands, and peninsular Spain. We assigned retrospective IUCN categories of threat to 98 species included in the Spanish Red List of 2010 but absent in the Spanish Red List of 2000. In addition, we tested the effect of different random and taxonomic and spatial Spanish samples on the overall RLI value. From 2000 to 2010, the IUCN categories of 768 species changed (10% of Spanish flora), mainly due to improved knowledge (63%), modifications in IUCN criteria (14%), and changes in threat status (12%). All measured national and subnational RLI values decreased during this period, indicating a general decline in the conservation status of the Spanish vascular flora. The Canarian RLI value (0.84) was the lowest, although the fastest deterioration in conservation status occurred on peninsular Spain (from 0.93 in 2000 to 0.92 in 2010). The RLI values based on subsamples of the Spanish Red List were not representative of RLI values for the entire country, which would discourage the use of small areas or small taxonomic samples to assess general trends in the endangerment of national biotas. The role of the RLI in monitoring of changes in biodiversity at the global and regional scales needs further reassessment because additional areas and taxa are necessary to determine whether the index is sufficiently sensitive for use in assessing temporal changes in species' risk of extinction.

Understanding how habitat structure at multiple spatial scales influences vertebrates can facilitate development of effective conservation strategies, but until recently most studies have focused on habitat relationships only at fine or intermediate scales. In particular, patterns of amphibian occurrence across broad spatial scales are not well studied, despite recent concerns over regional and global declines. We examined habitat relationships of larval and neotenic Pacific giant salamanders (Dicamptodon tenebrosus), larval and adult Pacific tailed frogs (Ascaphus truei) (hereafter “tailed frogs”), and torrent salamanders (Rhyacotriton spp.) at three spatial scales (2‐m sample unit, intermediate, and drainage). In 1998 and 1999, we captured 1568 amphibians in 702 sample units in 16 randomly chosen drainages in the Oregon Coast Range. We examined species–habitat associations at each spatial scale using an information‐theoretic approach of analysis to rank sets of logistic regression models developed a priori. At the 2‐m sample unit scale, all groups were negatively associated with proportion of small substrate and positively associated with stream width or elevation. At the intermediate scale, Pacific giant salamanders, adult tailed frogs, and torrent salamanders were positively associated with presence of a 46‐m band of forested habitat on each side of the stream, and larval tailed frogs were positively associated with presence of forest >105 years old. Aspect was important for Pacific giant salamanders and larval tailed frogs at the intermediate scale. At the drainage scale, all groups except torrent salamanders were positively associated with proportion of stream length having forested bands >46 m in width, but further analysis suggests narrower bands may provide adequate protection for some groups. Population‐ and community‐level responses at broad spatial scales may be reflected in species‐level responses at fine spatial scales, and our results suggest that geophysical and ecological characteristics, as well as measures of instream habitat, can be used together to prioritize conservation emphasis areas for stream amphibians in managed landscapes.

The identification of rare and endangered species is a valuable tool for raising awareness of those taxa facing a high risk of extinction. It is a first step towards highlighting the issue of species decline and loss, as well as encouraging decision makers to take action to improve or at least maintain the current state of biodiversity. In recent years, it has become urgently neces-sary to update and reassess the risk of extinction for species of community interest that grow in natural habitats in our country. Therefore, in 2020, a research program was initiated in the Spontaneous Flora and Herbarium Laboratory which aims to multiply and repatriate to natural habitats several species of community interest.