Reliability based design optimization using response surface augmented moment method

<p>The primary objective of this study is to develop new computational methods for robust design optimization (RDO) and reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) of high-dimensional, complex engineering systems. Four major research directions, all anchored in polynomial dimensional decomposition (PDD), have been defined to meet the objective. They involve: (1) development of new sensitivity analysis methods for RDO and RBDO; (2) development of novel optimization methods for solving RDO problems; (3) development of novel optimization methods for solving RBDO problems; and (4) development of a novel scheme and formulation to solve stochastic design optimization problems with both distributional and structural design parameters.</p> <p>The major achievements are as follows. Firstly, three new computational methods were developed for calculating design sensitivities of statistical moments and reliability of high-dimensional complex systems subject to random inputs. The first method represents a novel integration of PDD of a multivariate stochastic response function and score functions, leading to analytical expressions of design sensitivities of the first two moments. The second and third methods, relevant to probability distribution or reliability analysis, exploit two distinct combinations built on PDD: the PDD-SPA method, entailing the saddlepoint approximation (SPA) and score functions; and the PDD-MCS method, utilizing the embedded Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) of the PDD approximation and score functions. For all three methods developed, both the statistical moments or failure probabilities and their design sensitivities are both determined concurrently from a single stochastic analysis or simulation. Secondly, four new methods were developed for RDO of complex engineering systems. The methods involve PDD of a high-dimensional stochastic response for statistical moment analysis, a novel integration of PDD and score functions for calculating the second-moment sensitivities with respect to the design variables, and standard gradient-based optimization algorithms. The methods, depending on how statistical moment and sensitivity analyses are dovetailed with an optimization algorithm, encompass direct, single-step, sequential, and multi-point single-step design processes. Thirdly, two new methods were developed for RBDO of complex engineering systems. The methods involve an adaptive-sparse polynomial dimensional decomposition (AS-PDD) of a high-dimensional stochastic response for reliability analysis, a novel integration of AS-PDD and score functions for calculating the sensitivities of the failure probability with respect to design variables, and standard gradient-based optimization algorithms, resulting in a multi-point, single-step design process. The two methods, depending on how the failure probability and its design sensitivities are evaluated, exploit two distinct combinations built on AS-PDD: the AS-PDD-SPA method, entailing SPA and score functions; and the AS-PDD-MCS method, utilizing the embedded MCS of the AS-PDD approximation and score functions. In addition, a new method, named as the augmented PDD method, was developed for RDO and RBDO subject to mixed design variables, comprising both distributional and structural design variables. The method comprises a new augmented PDD of a high-dimensional stochastic response for statistical moment and reliability analyses; an integration of the augmented PDD, score functions, and finite-difference approximation for calculating the sensitivities of the first two moments and the failure probability with respect to distributional and structural design variables; and standard gradient-based optimization algorithms, leading to a multi-point, single-step design process.</p> <p>The innovative formulations of statistical moment and reliability analysis, design sensitivity analysis, and optimization algorithms have achieved not only highly accurate but also computationally efficient design solutions. Therefore, these new methods are capable of performing industrial-scale design optimization with numerous design variables.</p>

In this investigation, a decomposition approach is employed for reliability-based design optimization of multidisciplinary systems. In the last few years, a variety of different approaches for reliability-based design optimization have been proposed in the literature. Traditionally, reliability-based design optimization is formulated as a nested optimization problem, where the inner loop, generally involves the solution to an optimization problem for computing the probability of failure corresponding to the failure modes. Such a formulation is by nature computationally intensive, requiring a large numbers of function and constraint evaluations. To alleviate this problem, researchers have developed single level reliability-based optimization formulations. The single level approach is expensive for multidisciplinary systems because of the fact that the complex coupled nature of multidisciplinary systems are likewise computationally intensive requiring iterative solvers. To reduce the computational effort of performing reliability-based design optimization in application to multidisciplinary systems, a decomposition approach for optimization is employed. The method of Simultaneous ANalysis and Design (SAND) is employed as an optimization driver within a single level reliability-based design optimization strategy. The methodology is illustrated in application to multidisciplinary test problems.

To reduce the cost of prototype and physical test, CAE analysis has been widely used to evaluate the vehicle performance during product development process. Combining CAE analysis and optimization approach, vehicle design process can be implemented more efficiently with affordable cost. Reliability based design optimization (RBDO) formulation considers variations of input variables, such as component gauges and material properties. As a result, the design obtained by using RBDO is more reliable and robust compared to those by deterministic optimization. The RBDO process starts from running simulation at DOE sampling data points, generating surrogate models (response surface) and performing robust and reliability based design optimization on the surrogate models by using Monte Carlo simulation. This paper presents a RBDO framework in Excel enviroment. Within this framework, the engineer can perform DOE sampling, surrogate modeling, robustness assessment, Monte Carlo simulation, robust design and reliability-based optimization with any type of distribution.

This study performed reliability-based robust design optimization (RBRDO) of stator and rotor shape of the IPM type electric motor to reduce the torque ripple considering uncertainties. A metamodel based on the design of experiments results, which was calculated by using 2-D electromagnetic finite element analysis, was used to calculate manufacturing uncertainties and material property distribution. As a result, the mean torque ripple of the optimum electric motor design was reduced by 56.4 % and the robustness was increased by 61.8 % compared with the initial design. The RBRDO design was compared with the designs of deterministic design optimization and reliability-based design optimization, and it was shown that, by using the RBRDO method, the optimum IPMSM can be designed to satisfying not only the minimum torque ripple but also the robustness and the reliability of output torque and torque ripple.

Reliability based design optimization is a methodology for nding optimized designs that are characterized with a low probability of failure. Primarily, reliability based design optimization consists of optimizing a merit function while satisfying reliability constraints. The reliability constraints are constraints on the probability of failure corresponding to each of the failure modes of the system or a single constraint on the system probability of failure. The probability of failure is usually estimated by performing a reliability analysis. During the last few years, a variety of dierent formulations have been developed for reliability based design optimization. Traditionally, these have been formulated as a doubleloop (nested) optimization problems. The upper level optimization loop generally involves optimizing a merit function subject to reliability constraints and the lower level optimization loop(s) compute the probabilities of failure corresponding to the failure mode(s) that govern the system failure. This formulation is, by nature, computationally intensive. Researchers have provided sequential strategies to address this issue, where the deterministic optimization and reliability analysis are decoupled, and the process is performed iteratively until convergence is achieved. These methods, though attractive in terms of obtaining a workable reliable design at considerably reduced computational costs, often lead to premature convergence and therefore, yield spurious optimal designs. In this paper, a novel unilevel formulation for reliability based design optimization is developed. In the proposed formulation, the lower level optimization (evaluation of reliability constraints in the double-loop formulation) is replaced by its corresponding rst order Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) necessary optimality conditions at the upper level optimization. Such a replacement is equivalent to solving the original nested optimization if the constraint qualication conditions are satised. It is shown through the use of test problems that the proposed formulation is numerically robust (stable) and computationally ecient compared to the existing approaches for reliability based design optimization.

A novel reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) method using simulation-based techniques for reliability assessments and efficient optimization approach is presented in this paper. In RBDO, model-based reliability analysis needs to be performed to calculate the probability of not satisfying a reliability constraint and the gradient of this probability with respect to each design variable. Among model-based methods, the most widely used in RBDO is the first-order reliability method (FORM). However, FORM could be inaccurate for nonlinear problems and is not applicable for system reliability problems. This paper develops an efficient optimization methodology to perform RBDO using simulation-based techniques. By combining analytical and simulation-based reliability methods, accurate probability of failure and sensitivity information is obtained. The use of simulation also enables both component and system-level reliabilities to be included in RBDO formulation. Instead of using a traditional RBDO formulation in which optimization and reliability computations are nested, a sequential approach is developed to greatly reduce the computational cost. The efficiency of the proposed RBDO approach is enhanced by using a multi-modal adaptive importance sampling technique for simulation-based reliability assessment; and by treating the inactive reliability constraints properly in optimization. A vehicle side impact problem is used to demonstrate the capabilities of the proposed method.

Reliability-based design optimization of volume fraction distribution in functionally graded composites

Including data uncertainty introduces an increased level of complexity to the already computationally expensive problem of reliability based design optimization (RBDO). Inverse reliability measures have been proposed and used in RBDO to minimize computational effort. This paper presents methods to obtain confidence bounds for the inverse reliability measure--namely the probabilities sufficiency factor--to quantify the effect of the input statistical data uncertainty. The estimated confidence bounds are approximated by a response surface and used in a robust reliability based design optimization.

The increasing use of surrogate models has widened the range of application of classical reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) techniques to industrial problems. In this paper, we consider such an approach to the lightweight design of an automotive body structure. Solving this problem while approximating the complex models (nonlinear, noisy and high-dimensional) with a single metamodel would require a very large and non affordable design of experiments (DOE). We thus investigate and propose a methodology of adaptive Kriging based RBDO where an initial DOE is iteratively updated so as to improve the Kriging models only in regions that actually matter. The nested reliability analysis is expressed in terms of quantiles assessment. Two stages of enrichment are performed. The first one seeks to gradually improve the accuracy of the metamodels where the probabilistic constraints are likely to be violated. The second one is embedded in an evolution strategy optimization scheme where, at each iteration, the accuracy of the quantile estimation is improved if necessary. The methodology is applied on an analytical and crashworthiness design problems showing good performance by enhancing accuracy and efficiency with respect to a traditional approach.

Chapter 19 - Additional Topics on Optimum Design

The system probability of failure calculation of the series system entails multi-dimensional integration, which is very difficult and numerically expensive. To resolve the computational burden, the narrow bound method, which accounts for the component failures and joint failures between two failure modes, has been widely used. For the analytic calculation of the component probability of failure, this paper proposes to use the most probable point (MPP)-based dimension reduction method (DRM). For the joint probability of failure calculation, three cases are considered based on the convexity or concavity of the performance functions. Design sensitivity analysis for the system reliability-based design optimization (RBDO), which is the major contribution of this paper, is carried out as well. Based on the results of numerical examples, the system probability of failure and its sensitivity calculation show very good agreement with the results obtained by Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and the finite difference method (FDM).

A multiobjective, reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) is performed considering manufacturing uncertainties in order to facilitate the performance and reliability of a centrifugal compressor. During the RBDO procedure, Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is utilized to calculate failure probability. Latin hypercube design (LHD) is adopted to sample and form simulation experiment scheme. Besides, response surface model (RSM) is constructed to reduce the computational cost of RBDO. Results show that in deterministic optimization (DO), the reliability of mass flow rate is only 0.7843 while in RBDO the reliability of mass flow rate reaches 0.9976. Meanwhile, the value of efficiency and total pressure ratio descend 0.00197 and 0.00822 respectively, but both of them still satisfy the reliability requirements. Accordingly, a more reliable design scheme of the compressor is obtained.

Design method for radar absorbing structures using reliability-based design optimization of the composite material properties

Design sensitivity analysis of sheet metal forming processes with a direct differentiation method

A reliability-based design optimization method is proposed in this paper for the deep-water composite catenary risers. Since the load carrying capacity of anisotropic laminated structures is very susceptible to changes in the sequence, orientation, and thickness of plies, it is necessary to introduce a reliability index as a boundary condition during the optimization process. Compared to traditional steel risers, the composites have a broader application prospects due to several advantages, such as high specific strength and stiffness as well as high fatigue and corrosion resistance. The classic lamination theory is used to compute the equivalent mechanical properties of composite risers, and the global model is then established to obtain the response of the key section that serves to be the boundary for the local model. In addition, the Design of Experiment （DOE） method is used to construct an approximate model, and the Monte Carlo method is utilized to analyze the result of the Deterministic Optimization（DO） and the Reliability-Based Design Optimization （RBDO）. This study shows that the optimized results not only satisfy the strength requirements but also possess a lower weight and a better reliability， which are feasible for composite catenary risers.