Renewables and CO2 emissions

The present thesis deals with aspects of biogeography, phylogenetics, systematics, and evolution. Its goal was to investigate patterns of biotic assembly in the Mediterranean region, with special emphasis on the effect of earth processes on species origins and distribution, the origin of species endemic to islands, and the biogeographic links between the Mediterranean and Irano-Turanian regions. To address these issues, two genera of Rutaceae (citrus family) that met several requirements were selected as model systems: Ruta and Haplophyllum. The former, the type genus of the family, is restricted to the Mediterranean region and comprises species endemic to both continental fragment (Corsica and Sardinia) and oceanic (Canary Islands) islands. The latter, one of the most species-rich genera of the family, has been used to characterize the flora of the Irano-Turanian region, where it reaches maximum species diversity, but also includes species endemic to the Mediterranean region. In Chapter I we generated molecular phylogenies for Ruta and closely related taxa, essential to provide a robust framework for subsequent biogeographic analyses. Moreover, we tested conflicting taxonomic treatments of Ruta and affiliated taxa based on different classes of characters. The analyses supported the current circumscription of Ruta and showed that the genus can only be diagnosed by using a suite of homoplasious, plesiomorphic, and autapomorphic morphological character states. Conflict between molecular and phytochemical datasets was ascribed to convergence in secondary chemical compounds. In Chapter II we carried out biogeographic analyses of Ruta aimed at elucidating the time frame and sequence of range expansion events associated with its origin and diversification, focusing mainly on the island endemics. Biogeographic scenarios were proposed by integrating information from phylogeny, molecular dating, and ancestral range reconstruction methods that incorporate palaeo-geographic models. The analyses showed that Ruta invaded the Mediterranean region from the north before the onset of the current Mediterranean climate. Land migration through a temporary connection between the Corso- Sardinian and Apulian microplates, followed by vicariance, was inferred as the process underlying the origin of the Corso-Sardinian endemic lineage. The origin and diversification of the clade restricted to the Canary Islands was explained by means of a single colonization event of the archipelago, driven by long-distance dispersal from North Africa, followed by inter-island speciation and parallel invasion of similar ecological zones. In Chapter III we carried out molecular phylogenetic analyses of Haplophyllum in order to explore the biogeographic links between the Mediterranean and Irano-Turanian regions. The analyses identified many instances of species non-monophyly, but also cases of strongly-supported species monophyly. Optimization of morphological characters on the molecular phylogeny indicated that several species of the genus, especially those with a widespread distribution, can only be diagnosed by combinations of homoplasious character states. Preliminary biogeographic patterns suggested that the Mediterranean representatives of the genus arrived from the east multiple times, corroborating the hypothesis that the Irano- Turanian region served as a key source for the colonization of the Mediterranean region.

基于统计数据，利用IPCC2006“自下而上”方法研究了太原市2000~2014年城市客运交通(UPT)碳排放发展规律，评估了“煤-电-车”战略的减排意义。太原UPT发展最突出的变化是私人汽车数量呈指数型增长，而公共交通的发展十分缓慢。太原UPT碳排放量年均增长约11%，2014年达417.5万吨。2006年后碳排放增长加速，人均UPT碳排放增速达63 kg CO2/(人•a)，单位道路面积UPT碳排放增速8 kg CO2/(m2•a)。私人汽车和经营性民用车是主要的UPT排放源，共占2014年UPT排放量的90.4%。私人汽车碳排放量以22.7%/a的速度增长，自2011年起取代经营性民用车成为最大的UPT碳排放源。公共交通服务能力有限且居民购买力显著增长促使私人汽车超高速增长，这是UPT碳排放量自2006年加速增长的主要原因。太原UPT碳排放发展符合库兹涅茨曲线规律，随GDP继续增长将进入增速趋缓阶段。若“煤-电-车”战略实施，以2014年为基准的碳减排达37%，单位GDP碳排放相对2005年下降48.8%，效果明显。但是不能实现2030年减排60%~65%的目标。使用更加清洁的能源降低煤电比重是实现UPT低碳发展的能源战略。 Based on the statistical data, the CO2 emission of urban passenger traffic (UPT) was studied for the period from 2000 to 2014 in Taiyuan using the so-called “down-up” method of IPCC2006. Furthermore, the “coal-electricity-vehicle” development strategy was evaluated. The most significant changes of the UPT were the exponential growth of private vehicles and the very slow development of public transport service. The average annual growth rate of the CO2 emission from UPT was 11% with a total of 4.175 × 106 t in 2014. Since 2006, the growth was accelerated. The CO2 emission per capital from UPT increased 63 kg CO2/a after 2006. And the emission of road area average augmented 8 kg CO2/(m2•a). The CO2 emissions of private vehicles and business vehicles dominated the emission of UPT accounting for 90.4% of the total in 2014. The emissions of private vehicles increased by 22.7%/a during 2000 to 2014, which resulted in a shift of the biggest carbon source of UPT from business vehicles to private vehicles in 2011. The limited public transport service ability and the evident rise of purchasing power of residents promoted the burst of private vehicles that was considered as the major reasons for the accelerated emission of UPT since 2006. The development of UPT CO2 emission follows the rule of Kuznets Curve. It is suggested that a decrease of the growth rate of the emission will occur in a near future with the increasing of GDP. If the strategy of “coal-electricity-vehicle” set in, the UPT CO2 emission would decrease by 37% and the emission of unit GDP would reduce by 48.8% in 2014. However, that doesn’t hit the target of 2030 emission reduction (60%~65%). Employing clean energy and reducing usage of coal power should be the appropriate way to achieve low-carbon transportation.

Guest Editors’ Introduction

The Union for the Mediterranean (UfM) is the international entity that brings together all States of Southern and Eastern Mediterranean shores, all Member States of the European Union and the European Union itself. The UfM is currently the only forum where all States of the Mediterranean basin carry out a form of international cooperation to foster economic development and regional integration. It has undergone a significant institutional development since the creation of the Barcelona Process in the context of the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership in 1995. Despite its uniqueness, the UfM has received very limited attention by international law scholarship. The article aims at filling this gap by exploring the historical evolution along with the features and the functions of the UfM. The analysis will be undertaken in the purview of institutional law to verify whether the UfM can be considered an international organization or rather an informal partnership of States. The study will also discuss whether this entity could promote a form of “Mediterranean regionalism” or if the UfM would serve as a mere projection of the interests of the European Union over the Mediterranean Sea.

Difference analysis of the relationship between household per capita income, per capita expenditure and per capita CO2 emissions in China: 1997–2014

Is economic freedom a panacea for environmental sustainability? Global and regional evidence.

This paper employed advanced panel methods to examine the effects of international tourist arrivals on CO2 emissions in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region over the period of 1995–2018. To analyze the predictive power of tourist arrivals for CO2 emissions, the panel Granger non-causality test was employed. Employing the common correlated effects mean group estimator showed that tourist arrival reduces CO2 emissions, while energy consumption and trade openness are the main contributors of CO2 emissions. Results also showed that although first-generation estimators confirmed the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, according to the CCE-MG estimator, an inverted U-shaped association between economic progress and CO2 emissions does not exist. Furthermore, the null hypothesis of non-Granger causality from tourist arrivals to CO2 emissions was rejected. The findings suggest taking a more sustainable approach to tourism development and energy conservation in the long run.

Contents of the report are as follows: Long-term economic development: challenges and prospects for the Arab countries by Mustapha K. Nabli. Reform complementarities and economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa by Mustapha Kamel Nabli, and Marie-Ange Veganzones-Varoudakis. After Argentina: was MENA right to be cautious? By Mustapha K. Nabli. Restarting Arab economic reform by Mustapha K. Nabli. Democracy for better governance and higher economic growth in the MENA region? By Mustapha K. Nabli, and Carlos Silva-Jauregui. The political economy of industrial policy in the Middle East and North Africa by Mustapha K. Nabli, Jennifer Keller, Claudia Nassif, and Carlos Silva-Jauregui. The macroeconomics of labor market outcomes in MENA by Jennifer Keller, and Mustapha K. Nabli. Challenges and opportunities for the 21st century by Mustapha Nabli. Labor market reforms, growth, and unemployment in labor-exporting countries in the Middle East and North Africa by Pierre-Richard Agenor, Mustapha K. Nabli, Tarik Yousef, and Henning Tarp Jensen. Economic reforms and people mobility for a more effective EU-MED partnership by Ishac Diwan, Mustapha Nabli, Adama Coulibaly, and Sara Johansson de Silva. Cruise control, shock absorbers, and traffic lights by Mustapha K. Nabli. Trade, foreign direct investment, and development in the Middle East and North Africa by Farrukh Iqbal, and Mustapha Kamel Nabli. Making trade work for jobs by Dipak Dasgupta, Mustapha Kamel Nabli, Christopher Pissarides, and Aristomene Varoudakis. Exchange rate management within the Middle East and North Africa region by Mustapha Nabli, Jennifer Keller, and Marie-Ange Veganzones. How does exchange rate policy affect manufactured exports in MENA countries? By Mustapha Kamel Nabli, and Marie-Ange Veganzones-Varoudakis. Public infrastructure and private investment in the Middle East and North Africa by Pierre-Richard Agenor, Mustapha K. Nabli, and Tarik M. Yousef. Governance, institutions, and private investment by Ahmet Faruk Aysan, Mustapha Kamel Nabli, and Marie-Ange Veganzones-Varoudakis.

North African desert dust is the dominant aerosol type transported over the Mediterranean Basin (MB), followed by marine, anthropogenic, and biomass‐burning aerosol types. This basin is characterized by intense synoptic scale activity that has a substantial impact on the distribution of aerosols. A climatological research at a spatial resolution of 1° × 1° over the MB for the years 2000–2016 is presented here. We used a circulation to environment approach to examine the linkage between three objective circulation type classifications (CTCs) and two outcomes: aerosol optical depth (AOD) and Angstrom exponent (AE). This linkage, hereafter referred to as the ‘synoptic skill’, was assessed using tailored autoregressive linear regression and logistic models. We calculated (a) the total synoptic skill, accounting for the contribution of synoptic circulation type and the autoregressive components to AOD variability, and (b) the net synoptic skill, reflecting the contribution of the circulation type only. This novel approach enabled to differentiate between AOD distribution as controlled by the prevailing synoptic conditions to the one affected by climatic diurnal processes. Results for AOD showed maximal total synoptic skill during fall and summer (R2 ∼ 0.3) with highest values over parts of North Africa and the Middle East (R2 > 0.4). The net synoptic skill was highest (R2 ∼ 0.1) during winter and lowest (R2 ∼ 0.05) during summer. Geographic distribution showed low net values over North Africa and the Middle East (R2 < 0.06) and higher values over the Mediterranean Sea (R2 ∼ 0.1). For AE, the synoptic skill had a significant signature over Southern Europe during winter months (c‐statistic > 0.8). No single classification was superior in terms of mean synoptic skill, although for specific seasons and geographical locations one or the other of the three classifications showed higher performance. This study reflects some more evidences on the net contribution of CTCs to the distribution of AOD and AE over the MB.

The new French scheme for a Union for the Mediterranean (UfM), officially inaugurated on 13 July, has stirred up a great deal of controversy inside the EU. Even in its watered-down form, the initiative promises to relaunch the stalled relations between the two sides of the Mediterranean in the context of the Barcelona Process. Though vulnerable to all manner of external shocks linked to the multiple inter- and intra-state conflicts around the Mediterranean, the Sarkozy plan is a welcome move to a greater degree of “co-ownership” through the institution of a joint presidency. Of great importance in the interest of overcoming at least some of the problems that have bedeviled the Barcelona Process is further “decentring” of Euro-Med politics away from Brussels and more comprehensive trade opening by the EU.

Since 2005, China has become the largest emitter of CO2. The transport sector is a major source of CO2 emissions, and the most rapidly growing sector in terms of fuel consumption and CO2 emissions in China. This paper estimated CO2 emissions in the transport sector across 30 provinces through the IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change) top-down method and identified the spatiotemporal pattern of the decoupling of transport CO2 emissions from economic growth during 1995 to 2016 by the modified Tapio’s decoupling model. The CO2 emissions in the transport sector increased from 103.10 million ton (Mt) in 1995 to 701.04 Mt in 2016. The year, 2005, was a turning point as the growth rate of transport CO2 emissions and the intensity of transport CO2 emissions declined. The spatial pattern of transport CO2 emissions and its decoupling status both exhibited an east-west differentiation. Nearly 80% of the provinces recently achieved decoupling, and absolute decoupling is beginning to take place. The local practices of Tianjin should be the subject of special attention. National carbon reduction policies have played a significant role in achieving a transition to low-carbon emissions in the Chinese transport sector, and the integration of multi-scale transport CO2 reduction policies will be promising for its decarbonisation.

After the recent high-impact European outbreaks of Xylella fastidiosa (Xf), a xylem-limited plant pathogenic bacterium native to the Americas, this research aims to rank the risks of potential entry, establishment and spread of Xf in new countries across Europe, the Middle East and North Africa. A novel risk-ranking technique is developed, based on combining entry risk drivers (imported plants, direct flights and ferry connections) with risk factors related to establishment and spread (presence of potential insect vectors, vulnerable economic crops, alternative hosts and climate suitability) of this pathogen. This reveals that western European countries have the highest risk for entry, but that the Mediterranean basin runs the highest risk for establishment and spread of Xf. Lebanon in particular has the highest level of risk for Xf dispersal within its suitable territory. Countries without current outbreaks combining high risks of Xf arrival and establishment are mainly in the Mediterranean basin: Turkey is at the highest level of risk, followed by Greece, Morocco and Tunisia, which are ranked at the high level. The ranking model also confirms the vulnerability, in terms of invasion by Xf, of southern European countries (Italy, Portugal and Spain) in which the pathogen has already been reported. High summer temperatures in these southern countries are likely to be the significant determinant for the overall invasion process, while northern European countries have a high level risk for the arrival of the pathogen, but relatively low summer temperatures may limit establishment and spread of major outbreaks. In general, our study provides a useful approach for mapping and comparing risks of invasive non-native species and emerging pathogens between countries, which could be useful for regional horizon scanning and phytosanitary and biosecurity management.

Abstract. The increasing trend of aerosol optical depth in the Middle East and a recent severe dust storm in Syria have raised questions as to whether dust storms will increase and promoted investigations on the dust activities driven by the natural climate variability underlying the ongoing human perturbations such as the Syrian civil war. This study examined the influences of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on dust activities in Syria using an innovative dust optical depth (DOD) dataset derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Deep Blue aerosol products. A significantly negative correlation is found between the Syrian DOD and the PDO in spring from 2003 to 2015. High DOD in spring is associated with lower geopotential height over the Middle East, Europe, and North Africa, accompanied by near-surface anomalous westerly winds over the Mediterranean basin and southerly winds over the eastern Arabian Peninsula. These large-scale patterns promote the formation of the cyclones over the Middle East to trigger dust storms and also facilitate the transport of dust from North Africa, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia to Syria, where the transported dust dominates the seasonal mean DOD in spring. A negative PDO not only creates circulation anomalies favorable to high DOD in Syria but also suppresses precipitation in dust source regions over the eastern and southern Arabian Peninsula and northeastern Africa.On the daily scale, in addition to the favorable large-scale condition associated with a negative PDO, enhanced atmospheric instability in Syria (associated with increased precipitation in Turkey and northern Syria) is also critical for the development of strong springtime dust storms in Syria.

Environmental degradation has been identified as a major worldwide concern in recent decades, with CO2 emissions considered as one of the primary drivers of this catastrophe. This study creatively analyzes the underlying impact of wind and solar energy generation, economic development, fossil fuel consumption on CO2 emissions to mitigate the environmental degradation in the world’s top three largest energy consumers and CO2 emitters nations namely, China, India, and the USA. To investigate the integrated impact of CO2 emission, a grey relational analysis (GRA) technique is adopted for the year 1990–2017. The Grey technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (G-TOPSIS) technique was employed for further optimization by prioritizing the explanatory factors that have potential influence on CO2 emissions in the selected nations. The outcomes through the GRA technique discovered that India is a major contributor of carbon emission caused by economic development, and China appeared to be the more afflicted nation for raising its carbon emissions owing to fossil fuel consumption. Whereas, the generation of solar and wind energy are grounded factors in the reduction of carbon emissions for China and the USA. In addition, the generation of wind energy showed a considerable impact in the reduction of CO2 emissions, based on the G-TOPSIS analysis. This suggests that reducing CO2 emissions would require a compendious transition from nonrenewable to renewable resources, while the United States and China appear to be on a more promising direction to environmental sustainability than India. As a growing renewable energy pioneer, India should increase the utilization of minimal carbon sources of energy in its electricity grid while limiting its reliance on fossil fuels. The findings of the study potentially aid governments and policymakers in making better decisions and investments to mitigate CO2 emissions while fostering a more environmentally friendly atmosphere.

Purpose - Recent improvements in the treatment of renal cell carcinoma (RCC), with the introduction of targeted agents, have increased the need of accurate data on its epidemiology. This descriptive study was designed to collate comprehensiveinformation on RCC epidemiology from North Africa and the Middle East, which could provide the basis for further research.Methods - A network of reference oncologists in North Africa and the Middle East were invited to share all available national and regional information on RCC epidemiology, captured in a comprehensive questionnaire. No statistical analysis wasplanned as the intention was to conduct a purely descriptive study.Results - The results reported that the incidence of RCC within the region is in the range of 0.9–2.35/100,000 for men (with Lebanon as an exception at 4.3/100,000 for men) and 0.5– 1.7/100,000 for women, which is considerably lower than in Europe and the USA. No mortality or survival data are available. The age at diagnosis (mean <60 years) is lower than in Western countries and a high proportion of patients in North Africa and the Middle East (21?45%) have metastatic disease at diagnosis.Conclusions - The information presented here provides a more complete and current picture of RCC in North Africa and the Middle East; however, there are still gaps in the data. Further research is needed to allow planning of treatmentstrategies and resource allocation.