Reply on RC1

Abstract. Large volcanic eruptions occurring in the last glacial period can be detected by their accompanying sulfuric acid deposition in continuous ice cores. Here we employ continuous sulfate and sulfur records from three Greenland and three Antarctic ice cores to estimate the emission strength, the frequency and the climatic forcing of large volcanic eruptions that occurred during the second half of the last glacial period and the early Holocene, 60–9 kyr before 2000 CE (b2k). Over most of the investigated interval the ice cores are synchronized, making it possible to distinguish large eruptions with a global sulfate distribution from eruptions detectable in one hemisphere only. Due to limited data resolution and large variability in the sulfate background signal, particularly in the Greenland glacial climate, we only list Greenland sulfate depositions larger than 20 kg km−2 and Antarctic sulfate depositions larger than 10 kg km−2. With those restrictions, we identify 1113 volcanic eruptions in Greenland and 737 eruptions in Antarctica within the 51 kyr period – for which the sulfate deposition of 85 eruptions is found at both poles (bipolar eruptions). Based on the ratio of Greenland and Antarctic sulfate deposition, we estimate the latitudinal band of the bipolar eruptions and assess their approximate climatic forcing based on established methods. A total of 25 of the identified bipolar eruptions are larger than any volcanic eruption occurring in the last 2500 years, and 69 eruptions are estimated to have larger sulfur emission strengths than the Tambora, Indonesia, eruption (1815 CE). Throughout the investigated period, the frequency of volcanic eruptions is rather constant and comparable to that of recent times. During the deglacial period (16–9 ka b2k), however, there is a notable increase in the frequency of volcanic events recorded in Greenland and an obvious increase in the fraction of very large eruptions. For Antarctica, the deglacial period cannot be distinguished from other periods. This confirms the suggestion that the isostatic unloading of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) ice sheets may be related to the enhanced NH volcanic activity. Our ice-core-based volcanic sulfate records provide the atmospheric sulfate burden and estimates of climate forcing for further research on climate impact and understanding the mechanism of the Earth system.

<p>During the last glacial period, abrupt climate events known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) and Heinrich events have been observed in various types of Northern Hemispheric (NH) paleoclimate archives. It has been speculated that volcanism may play a role in the abrupt climate variability of the last glacial period, for example as a trigger of abrupt changes. The investigation of a possible link between abrupt climate events and volcanic eruptions has been hampered by the lack of a global volcanic eruption record from the last glacial period. A recent identification of 80 major bipolar volcanic eruptions in Greenland and Antarctic ice core records within the interval 12-60 ka BP now enables us to investigate this link.</p><p>Using high-resolution ice-core records of climate (δ<sup>18</sup>O), atmospheric circulation changes (calcium) and volcanic eruptions (sulfate and other volcanic proxies) we investigate the timing of abrupt climate events and large volcanic eruptions at decadal resolution. We consider possible links between major volcanic eruptions and DO onsets (NH warming), DO terminations (NH cooling), and Heinrich stadials (strong NH cooling). Heinrich stadials are cold Greenland stadial periods during which Heinrich events occurred; large Hudson Strait iceberg discharge events that are characterized by deposition of significant amounts of ice rafted debris in North Atlantic marine sediments.</p><p>Significant links of volcanic and climatic events are tested in a statistical framework under the null hypothesis of random and memoryless volcanic activity. Our analysis shows that while certainly not all abrupt climate change of the last glacial period is associated with volcanism, we find that volcanism may have induced some abrupt Greenland warming events and perhaps several of the extreme North Atlantic cold Heinrich stadials; no significant link is found between volcanism and DO terminations. We speculate that volcanic cooling can drive such transitions when the coupled system of Atlantic Ocean circulation and North Atlantic sea ice is close to a tipping point.</p>

Very large volcanic eruptions have substantial impacts on the climate, causing global cooling and major changes to the hydrological cycle. While most studies have focused on changes to mean climate, here we use a large ensemble to assess the impact on extreme climate for three years following tropical and extratropical eruptions of different sulfur emission strength. We focus on the impact of an extremely large eruption, injecting 40 Tg sulfur into the stratosphere, which could be expected to occur approximately twice a millennium. Our findings show that the eruption would have a profound effect on large areas of the globe, resulting in extremely rare drought events that under normal circumstances would occur once every century becoming very likely. Several regions such as West Africa, South and East Asia and the Maritime continent are particularly affected with the expected climate shifting well outside the usual range, by up to five standard deviations. These results have important consequences as they indicate that a severe drought in multiple breadbasket regions should be expected following a large eruption. The risk of heavy rainfall tends to decrease over the same regions but by a reduced amount, heatwaves become extremely rare, however the chance of extreme Winter cold surges do not increase by a corresponding amount, since widespread parts of the Northern Hemisphere display a winter warming. Our results show that the location of the eruption is crucial for the change in extremes, with overall changes larger for a Northern Hemisphere eruption than a tropical and Southern Hemisphere eruption, although there is a regional dependency. Simulations of different eruptions with similar forcing distributions but with different sizes are consistent with a linear relationship, however for smaller eruptions the internal variability tends to become dominant and the effect on extreme climate less detectable.

During the first half of the nineteenth century, several large tropical volcanic eruptions occurred within less than three decades. The global climate effects of the 1815 Tambora eruption have been investigated, but those of an eruption in 1808 or 1809 whose source is unknown and the eruptions in the 1820s and 1830s have received less attention. Here we analyse the effect of the sequence of eruptions in observations, global three-dimensional climate field reconstructions and coupled climate model simulations. All the eruptions were followed by substantial drops of summer temperature over the Northern Hemisphere land areas. In addition to the direct radiative effect, which lasts 2–3 years, the simulated ocean–atmosphere heat exchange sustained cooling for several years after these eruptions, which affected the slow components of the climate system. Africa was hit by two decades of drought, global monsoons weakened and the tracks of low-pressure systems over the North Atlantic moved south. The low temperatures and increased precipitation in Europe triggered the last phase of the advance of Alpine glaciers. Only after the 1850s did the transition into the period of anthropogenic warming start. We conclude that the end of the Little Ice Age was marked by the recovery from a sequence of volcanic eruptions, which makes it difficult to define a single pre-industrial baseline. Large volcanic eruptions in the first half of the nineteenth century blurred the transition from the Little Ice Age to anthropogenic warming, and led to sustained cooling, drought in Africa and weakened monsoons, suggests a combination of observations and model simulations.

We analyzed last millennium simulations (circa 850–1850 Common Era) from the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project 3 (PMIP3) project to determine whether current state‐of‐the‐art models produce sudden changes and persistence of cold conditions after large volcanic eruptions as inferred from geological records and previous climate modeling. Snow cover over Baffin Island in the eastern Canadian Arctic shows large‐scale expansion (as seen in proxy records) in two of the five models with snow cover information available, although it is not sustained beyond a decade. Sea ice expansion in the North Atlantic is seen in some PMIP3 models after large eruptions, although none of these models produce significant centennial‐scale effects. Warm Baffin Island summer climates stunt snow expansion in some models completely, and model topography tends to miss the critical plateau elevations that could sustain snow on the island. Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent is lower in six of the eight models than in reconstructions over the past millennium. Annual average Northern Hemisphere mean climates have a range of 3 K across models, while Arctic summer land‐only climates span more than 6 K. This has critical consequences on ice and snow formation and persistence in regions such as the Arctic where temperatures are near the freezing point and small temperature changes affect ice and snow feedback that could induce further climate changes. Thus, it is critical that models accurately represent absolute temperature.

Large volcanic eruptions are key time markers in paleoclimatology because they inject large quantities of volcanic fallout (such as sulfuric acids and tephra) into the atmosphere which is then widely distributed and deposited in environmental archives such as ice cores, lakes and peat bogs. They also produce strong climate effects, imprinted in climate archives such as tree-rings. The caldera-forming eruption of Mount Mazama (Crater Lake, Oregon, USA) some 7700 years ago ranks among the largest eruptions of the Holocene but little is known about its exact timing and global-scale climate impacts. Here we use new high-resolution ice-core analyses of volatiles (S, Cl), particle-size distribution, crypto-tephra and sulfur isotopes (33S, 34S), from ice cores in Greenland and Antarctica, to constrain the date, stratospheric sulfur injection, global aerosol distribution and climate forcing of this eruption. We further demonstrate that the climatic effects left distinctive fingerprints in ultra-long tree-ring chronologies from North America and Europe allowing the date of this eruption to be pinned to a specific year, thereby aligning climate proxy records in North America, Greenland and Europe on a common timeline. Using an ensemble of fully-coupled Earth System Model simulations we identify some key regions experiencing large anomalies in temperature and hydro-climate following the Mt. Mazama eruption. These extreme conditions were not only relevant for hunter-gatherer communities and early agricultural societies emerging in Eurasia, that experienced these compounding effects, but they also help us in identifying a global existential risk arising from comparable eruptions in the future.

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the most devastating storm systems with high socioeconomic impacts around the world. The drivers of long-term changes in TC frequency and intensity, including the recent global climatic changes, are, however, poorly understood due to short instrumental measurements and a lack of accurate proxy records. Here we present the long-term impacts of large volcanic eruptions on TC activity in northeast Asia. For this purpose, we performed a reconstruction of the frequency and intensity of landfalling TCs based on tree-ring oxygen isotope ratios over the past 350 years. Our results revealed markedly depleted δ18O values (P < 0.01) for TC years and confirm tree-ring δ18O as a strong proxy for the detection of past TCs. The agreement between the δ18O chronology and the corresponding TC record (1950–2005) was 96.4% and it was relatively high also for the preceding periods covered by less reliable TC records, specifically 76.1% (1904–1949) and 66.4% (1652–1903). In addition to the prominent TC frequency signal, we found a strong negative correlation (R = −0.65; P < 0.001) between the δ18O chronology and TC intensity expressed by the amount of TC precipitation. Our reconstruction revealed that the recent high frequency of landfalling TCs is distinct on a long-term scale. We provide the first long-term evidence of reduced TC activity for two years following large volcanic eruptions. Our results indicate that volcanic ash is a relevant driver of TC activity over northeast Asia via its role on radiative climate forcing. We suggest that large volcanic eruptions modulate large-scale atmospheric and oceanic circulation determining TC genesis and thus TC activity in the western North Pacific.

The stratospheric aerosol layer is mainly composed of sulfuric acid aerosol particles, which are microdroplets of a 75 % aqueous solution of sulfuric acid H₂SO₄. The most powerful source of stratospheric aerosol particles is large volcanic eruptions that inject significant amounts of sulfur dioxide SO₂ into the stratosphere. Sulfur dioxide is oxidized to a sulfuric acid aerosol in the stratosphere within two weeks. The concentration of sulfuric acid aerosol in the lower stratosphere can increase by 1–2 orders of magnitude as a result of large volcanic eruptions. In this work, we presented a list of volcanic eruptions with the possible injection of aerosols into the stratosphere from 1800 to 2020.

We identified regional differences over China of winter temperature response to large volcanic eruptions with different latitudes and seasons from 1956 to 2005, and investigated atmospheric circulations for corresponding spatial patterns of winter temperature anomalies using reanalysis data and simulations by the Community Earth System Model. Both observations and simulations show that spatial patterns of winter temperature anomalies over China are related to the latitudes and seasons of the eruptions. Tropical volcanic eruptions during summer led to winter temperature decreases of 0.4–1.6 °C in eastern China due to the increase of height gradient. Winter volcanic eruptions led to extensive warming over Tibet. Following summer volcanic eruptions at low latitude, there were warm winters in eastern China because of a weak Siberian high. An anomalous southerly wind caused slight warming over most of China following winter eruptions. With the typical “trough–ridge–trough” at high latitude of the Northern Hemisphere, the winter temperature decreased in northeastern China and increased in western China following summer eruptions at mid-latitude. However, temperature generally increased after winter eruptions. For summer eruptions at high latitude, winter temperature showed a coherent decrease over northwest and east-central China due to an intensified Siberian High and East Asian trough. The widespread warming occurred over China because of the meridional circulation between 65°N and 45°N was weaker following winter volcanic eruptions.

Abstract. Effusive, long-lasting volcanic eruptions impact climate through the emission of gases and the subsequent production of aerosols. Previous studies, both modelling and observational, have made efforts to quantify these impacts and untangle them from natural variability. However, due to the scarcity of large and well-observed effusive volcanic eruptions, our understanding remains patchy. Here, we use an Earth system model to systematically investigate the climate response to high-latitude, effusive volcanic eruptions, similar to the 2014–2015 Holuhraun eruption in Iceland, as a function of eruption season and size. The results show that the climate response is regional and strongly modulated by different seasons, exhibiting midlatitude cooling during summer and Arctic warming during winter. Furthermore, as eruptions increase in size in terms of sulfur dioxide emissions, the climate response becomes increasingly insensitive to variations in emission strength, levelling off for eruptions between 20 and 30 times the size of the 2014–2015 Holuhraun eruption. Volcanic eruptions are generally considered to lead to surface cooling, but our results indicate that this is an oversimplification, especially in the Arctic, where warming is found to be the dominant response during autumn and winter.

Volcanic eruptions are an important natural cause of climate change on many timescales. A new capability to predict the climatic response to a large tropical eruption for the succeeding 2 years will prove valuable to society. In addition, to detect and attribute anthropogenic influences on climate, including effects of greenhouse gases, aerosols, and ozone‐depleting chemicals, it is crucial to quantify the natural fluctuations so as to separate them from anthropogenic fluctuations in the climate record. Studying the responses of climate to volcanic eruptions also helps us to better understand important radiative and dynamical processes that respond in the climate system to both natural and anthropogenic forcings. Furthermore, modeling the effects of volcanic eruptions helps us to improve climate models that are needed to study anthropogenic effects. Large volcanic eruptions inject sulfur gases into the stratosphere, which convert to sulfate aerosols with ane‐folding residence time of about 1 year. Large ash particles fall out much quicker. The radiative and chemical effects of this aerosol cloud produce responses in the climate system. By scattering some solar radiation back to space, the aerosols cool the surface, but by absorbing both solar and terrestrial radiation, the aerosol layer heats the stratosphere. For a tropical eruption this heating is larger in the tropics than in the high latitudes, producing an enhanced pole‐to‐equator temperature gradient, especially in winter. In the Northern Hemisphere winter this enhanced gradient produces a stronger polar vortex, and this stronger jet stream produces a characteristic stationary wave pattern of tropospheric circulation, resulting in winter warming of Northern Hemisphere continents. This indirect advective effect on temperature is stronger than the radiative cooling effect that dominates at lower latitudes and in the summer. The volcanic aerosols also serve as surfaces for heterogeneous chemical reactions that destroy stratospheric ozone, which lowers ultraviolet absorption and reduces the radiative heating in the lower stratosphere, but the net effect is still heating. Because this chemical effect depends on the presence of anthropogenic chlorine, it has only become important in recent decades. For a few days after an eruption the amplitude of the diurnal cycle of surface air temperature is reduced under the cloud. On a much longer timescale, volcanic effects played a large role in interdecadal climate change of the Little Ice Age. There is no perfect index of past volcanism, but more ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica will improve the record. There is no evidence that volcanic eruptions produce El Niño events, but the climatic effects of El Niño and volcanic eruptions must be separated to understand the climatic response to each.

Volcanic eruptions contribute to climate variability, but quantifying these contributions has been limited by inconsistencies in the timing of atmospheric volcanic aerosol loading determined from ice cores and subsequent cooling from climate proxies such as tree rings. Here we resolve these inconsistencies and show that large eruptions in the tropics and high latitudes were primary drivers of interannual-to-decadal temperature variability in the Northern Hemisphere during the past 2,500 years. Our results are based on new records of atmospheric aerosol loading developed from high-resolution, multi-parameter measurements from an array of Greenland and Antarctic ice cores as well as distinctive age markers to constrain chronologies. Overall, cooling was proportional to the magnitude of volcanic forcing and persisted for up to ten years after some of the largest eruptive episodes. Our revised timescale more firmly implicates volcanic eruptions as catalysts in the major sixth-century pandemics, famines, and socioeconomic disruptions in Eurasia and Mesoamerica while allowing multi-millennium quantification of climate response to volcanic forcing.

<strong class="journal-contentHeaderColor">Abstract.</strong> Volcanic eruptions are the dominant cause of natural variability in climate forcing on timescales up to multidecadal. Large volcanic eruptions lead to global-scale climate effects and influence the carbon cycle on long timescales. However, estimating the frequency of eruptions is challenging. Here we assess the frequency at which eruptions with particular deposition fluxes are observed in the EPICA Dome C ice core over the last 200 kyr. Using S isotope analysis we confirm that most of the largest peaks recorded at Dome C are from stratospheric eruptions. The cumulative frequency through 200 kyr is close to linear, suggesting an approximately constant rate of eruptions. There is no evidence for an increase in the rate of events recorded in Antarctica at either of the last two deglaciations. Millennial variability is at the level expected from recording small numbers of eruptions, while multimillennial variability may be partly due to changes in transport efficiency through the Brewer–Dobson circulation. Our record of events with sulfate deposition rates <span class="inline-formula">&gt;</span> 20 and <span class="inline-formula">&gt;50</span> mg m<span class="inline-formula">^−2</span> contains 678 and 75 eruptions, respectively, over the last 200 kyr. Calibration with data on historic eruptions and analysis of a global Quaternary dataset of terrestrial eruptions indicates that sulfate peaks with deposition rates <span class="inline-formula">&gt;</span> 20 and <span class="inline-formula">&gt;50</span> mg m<span class="inline-formula">^−2</span> correspond to explosive eruptions of magnitude <span class="inline-formula">≥</span> 6.5 and <span class="inline-formula">≥7</span>, respectively. The largest recorded eruption deposited just over 300 mg m<span class="inline-formula">^−2</span>.

<strong class="journal-contentHeaderColor">Abstract.</strong> Volcanic eruptions are the dominant cause of natural variability in climate forcing on timescales up to multidecadal. Large volcanic eruptions lead to global-scale climate effects and influence the carbon cycle on long timescales. However, estimating the frequency of eruptions is challenging. Here we assess the frequency at which eruptions with particular deposition fluxes are observed in the EPICA Dome C ice core over the last 200 kyr. Using S isotope analysis we confirm that most of the largest peaks recorded at Dome C are from stratospheric eruptions. The cumulative frequency through 200 kyr is close to linear, suggesting an approximately constant rate of eruptions. There is no evidence for an increase in the rate of events recorded in Antarctica at either of the last two deglaciations. Millennial variability is at the level expected from recording small numbers of eruptions, while multimillennial variability may be partly due to changes in transport efficiency through the Brewer–Dobson circulation. Our record of events with sulfate deposition rates <span class="inline-formula">&gt;</span> 20 and <span class="inline-formula">&gt;50</span> mg m<span class="inline-formula">^−2</span> contains 678 and 75 eruptions, respectively, over the last 200 kyr. Calibration with data on historic eruptions and analysis of a global Quaternary dataset of terrestrial eruptions indicates that sulfate peaks with deposition rates <span class="inline-formula">&gt;</span> 20 and <span class="inline-formula">&gt;50</span> mg m<span class="inline-formula">^−2</span> correspond to explosive eruptions of magnitude <span class="inline-formula">≥</span> 6.5 and <span class="inline-formula">≥7</span>, respectively. The largest recorded eruption deposited just over 300 mg m<span class="inline-formula">^−2</span>.

Possible connection between large volcanic eruptions and level rise episodes in the Dead Sea Basin