Reply on RC1

Atmospheric oxygen (O(2)) is estimated to have varied greatly throughout Earth's history and has been capable of influencing wildfire activity wherever fuel and ignition sources were present. Fires consume huge quantities of biomass in all ecosystems and play an important role in biogeochemical cycles. This means that understanding the influence of O(2) on past fire activity has far-reaching consequences for the evolution of life and Earth's biodiversity over geological timescales. We have used a strong electrical ignition source to ignite smoldering fires, and we measured their self-sustaining propagation in atmospheres of different oxygen concentrations. These data have been used to build a model that we use to estimate the baseline intrinsic flammability of Earth's ecosystems according to variations in O(2) over the past 350 million years (Ma). Our aim is to highlight times in Earth's history when fire has been capable of influencing the Earth system. We reveal that fire activity would be greatly suppressed below 18.5% O(2), entirely switched off below 16% O(2), and rapidly enhanced between 19-22% O(2). We show that fire activity and, therefore, its influence on the Earth system would have been high during the Carboniferous (350-300 Ma) and Cretaceous (145-65 Ma) periods; intermediate in the Permian (299-251 Ma), Late Triassic (285-201 Ma), and Jurassic (201-145 Ma) periods; and surprisingly low to lacking in the Early-Middle Triassic period between 250-240 Ma. These baseline variations in Earth's flammability must be factored into our understanding of past vegetation, biodiversity, evolution, and biogeochemical cycles.

Recently, a lot of effort has been put into estimating possible near-future changes (say, 10–100 years) in the Earth’s abiotic system, especially changes induced by human activities. One of the most studied issues is the effect of greenhouse gases on global warming and the corresponding change in sea-level around the world due to the associated deglaciation. This study focuses at projections of global sea-level changes on geological time scales. The University of Victoria’s (Canada) coupled Earth System Climate Model of intermediate complexity was implemented. Two different green-house-warming scenarios were studied on time-scales from hundreds to thousands years. The model was used to predict sea level variations under the combined influence of changes in sea ice coverage, global precipitation and evaporation, seawater salinity and temperature. Long-term projections show unequal water mass distribution over the globe: a sea-level rise of order of decimetres in equatorial and mid-latitude regions and a sea-level fall of up to 2 metres in polar regions, mostly around Antarctica.

Research has shown the highest level of understanding in the geosciences to be the ability to think about the Earth as a dynamic system. The Earth system contains four spheres: the geosphere, the hydrosphere, the biosphere, and the atmosphere. These spheres are linked through the biogeochemical cycles that move matter and energy through the various parts of the Earth system. This study aims to fill a gap in the literature by examining how undergraduate students perceive fluxes and reservoirs of important elements within the Earth system: namely carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus. Through interviews, concept drawings, and surveys, undergraduate students’ conceptions and alternate conceptions about the Earth System and biogeochemical cycles were collected. This study revealed that undergraduate students in both STEM and non-STEM fields tend to hold a “bio-centric” view of the carbon cycle and have more limited conceptions in terms of detail and breadth of the nitrogen and phosphorous cycles. Students who took more STEM courses and were in more interdisciplinary fields tended to have more nuanced (though not necessarily complete) conceptions of these cycles. Implications for this study involve the improvement of teaching biogeochemical concepts across disciplines, but also inform our knowledge about using these cycles in the context of systems thinking. This work also provides a baseline for future work on developing learning progressions for biogeochemical cycles and complex Earth systems and in assessing systems thinking abilities through student knowledge of biogeochemical cycles.

Abstract. Wetlands are the single largest natural source of methane (CH4), a powerful greenhouse gas affecting the global climate. In turn, wetland CH4 emissions are sensitive to changes in climate conditions such as temperature and precipitation shifts. However, biogeochemical processes regulating wetland CH4 emissions (namely microbial production and oxidation of CH4) are not routinely included in fully coupled Earth system models that simulate feedbacks between the physical climate, the carbon cycle, and other biogeochemical cycles. This paper introduces a process-based wetland CH4 model (WETMETH) developed for implementation in Earth system models and currently embedded in an Earth system model of intermediate complexity. Here, we (i) describe the wetland CH4 model, (ii) evaluate the model performance against available datasets and estimates from the literature, and (iii) analyze the model sensitivity to perturbations of poorly constrained parameters. Historical simulations show that WETMETH is capable of reproducing mean annual emissions consistent with present-day estimates across spatial scales. For the 2008–2017 decade, the model simulates global mean wetland emissions of 158.6 Tg CH4 yr−1, of which 33.1 Tg CH4 yr−1 is from wetlands north of 45∘ N. WETMETH is highly sensitive to parameters for the microbial oxidation of CH4, which is the least constrained process in the literature.

Sedimentary pyrite formation links the global biogeochemical cycles of carbon, sulfur, and iron, which, in turn, modulate the redox state of the planet's surficial environment over geological time scales. Accordingly, the sulfur isotopic composition (δ34S) of pyrite has been widely employed as a geochemical tool to probe the evolution of ocean chemistry. Characteristics of the depositional environment and post-depositional processes, however, can modify the δ34S signal that is captured in sedimentary pyrite and ultimately preserved in the geological record. Exploring sulfur and iron diagenesis within the Bornholm Basin, Baltic Sea, we find that higher sedimentation rates limit the near-surface sulfidization of reactive iron, facilitating its burial and hence the subsurface availability of reactive iron for continued and progressively more 34S-enriched sediment-hosted pyrite formation (δ34S ≈ −5‰). Using a diagenetic model, we show that the amount of pyrite formed at the sediment-water interface has increased over the past few centuries in response to expansion of water-column hypoxia, which also impacts the sulfur isotopic signature of pyrite at depth. This contribution highlights the critical role of reactive iron in pyrite formation and questions to what degree pyrite δ34S values truly reflect past global ocean chemistry and biogeochemical processes. This work strengthens our ability to extract local paleoenvironmental information from pyrite δ34S signatures.

Biogeochemical modeling of global nutrient cycling

Earth System Model (ESM) advances now enable improved representations of spatially and temporally varying anthropogenic climate forcings. One critical forcing is global agriculture, which is now extensive in land-use and intensive in management, owing to 20th century development trends. Agriculture and food systems now contribute nearly 30% of global greenhouse gas emissions and require copious inputs and resources, such as fertilizer, water, and land. Much uncertainty remains in quantifying important agriculture-climate interactions, including surface moisture and energy balances and biogeochemical cycling. Despite these externalities and uncertainties, agriculture is increasingly being leveraged to function as a net sink of anthropogenic carbon, and there is much emphasis on future sustainable intensification. Given its significance as a major environmental and climate forcing, there now exist a variety of approaches to represent agriculture in ESMs. These approaches are reviewed herein, and range from idealized representations of agricultural extent to the development of coupled climate-crop models that capture dynamic feedbacks. We highlight the robust agriculture-climate interactions and responses identified by these modeling efforts, as well as existing uncertainties and model limitations. To this end, coordinated and benchmarking assessments of land-use-climate feedbacks can be leveraged for further improvements in ESM's agricultural representations. We suggest key areas for continued model development, including incorporating irrigation and biogeochemical cycling in particular. Lastly, we pose several critical research questions to guide future work. Our review focuses on ESM representations of climate-surface interactions over managed agricultural lands, rather than on ESMs as an estimation tool for crop yields and productivity.

During the Late Triassic and Early Jurassic the Newark rift basin of the northeastern US accumulated in excess 5 km of continental, mostly lacustrine strata that show a profound cyclicity previousl...

Abstract. The GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model (CTM), used by a large atmospheric chemistry research community, has been re-engineered to also serve as an atmospheric chemistry module for Earth system models (ESMs). This was done using an Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) interface that operates independently of the GEOS-Chem scientific code, permitting the exact same GEOS-Chem code to be used as an ESM module or as a stand-alone CTM. In this manner, the continual stream of updates contributed by the CTM user community is automatically passed on to the ESM module, which remains state of science and referenced to the latest version of the standard GEOS-Chem CTM. A major step in this re-engineering was to make GEOS-Chem grid independent, i.e., capable of using any geophysical grid specified at run time. GEOS-Chem data sockets were also created for communication between modules and with external ESM code. The grid-independent, ESMF-compatible GEOS-Chem is now the standard version of the GEOS-Chem CTM. It has been implemented as an atmospheric chemistry module into the NASA GEOS-5 ESM. The coupled GEOS-5–GEOS-Chem system was tested for scalability and performance with a tropospheric oxidant-aerosol simulation (120 coupled species, 66 transported tracers) using 48–240 cores and message-passing interface (MPI) distributed-memory parallelization. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the GEOS-Chem chemistry module scales efficiently for the number of cores tested, with no degradation as the number of cores increases. Although inclusion of atmospheric chemistry in ESMs is computationally expensive, the excellent scalability of the chemistry module means that the relative cost goes down with increasing number of cores in a massively parallel environment.

Chapter 11 - Photosynthesis in action: The global view

Organic compounds can constitute roughly half of the sub-micron aerosol mass in the troposphere, necessitating an accurate representation of organic aerosol (OA) in Earth system models (ESMs) to better capture aerosol-climate feedbacks. The secondary fraction of OA (SOA), however, formed through the oxidation of various volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from both natural and anthropogenic sources, complicates the description of OA in ESMs. Most ESMs either assume a non-volatile SOA produced with a constant yield from known precursors or provide a simplistic depiction of its volatility derived from biogenic VOCs, treating the primary fraction of OA (POA) as non-reactive and non-volatile. This approach often fails to accurately reproduce observed OA atmospheric measurement. On the other hand, biological materials such as bacteria, fungal spores, and various fragments released by living organisms into the atmosphere have been widely identified as part of the super-micron OA mass, which most ESMs also inadequately represent.In the context of the H.F.R.I. project REINFORCE, we focus on improving the representation of atmospheric composition in Earth System Models (ESMs). We present simulations using the volatility basis set (VBS) approach to represent SOA formation, along with incorporating the organic fraction of bioaerosols. These developments are implemented in the state-of-the-art ESM, EC-Earth version 3, which includes interactive aerosols and atmospheric chemistry (EC-Earth3-AerChem). A lite version of the well-documented aerosol module ORACLE, which allows for relatively limited computing resource consumption, has been coupled to the CTM component of EC-Earth3-AerChem to calculate the partitioning and chemical evolution of POA vapors and their changes in volatility. The formation of SOA from semivolatile organic compounds (SVOCs) and intermediate-volatility organic compounds (IVOCs) has been added to the existing SOA formation scheme from biogenic VOCs in the model. Moreover, the three main types of bioaerosols—bacteria, fungal spores, and pollen grains—have been implemented into the model based on interactive bioaerosol schemes that depend on ecosystem types, the leaf area index (LAI), and various meteorological parameters. Bioaerosols in EC-Earth3-AerChem can also be transferred to the soluble aerosol coarse mode due to atmospheric aging processes. Overall, our efforts aim to bridge the gap between model simulations and observations, thereby enhancing our understanding of OA climate impacts.

Abstract. Land cover and land management change (LCLMC) has been highlighted for its critical role in mitigation scenarios, both in terms of global mitigation and local adaptation. Yet, the climate effect of individual LCLMC options, their dependence on the background climate and the local vs. non-local responses are still poorly understood across different Earth system models (ESMs). Here we simulate the climatic effects of LCLMC using three state-of-the-art ESMs, including the Community Earth System Model (CESM), the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) and the European Consortium Earth System Model (EC-EARTH). We assess the LCLMC effects using the following four idealized experiments: (i) a fully afforested world, (ii) a world fully covered by cropland, (ii) a fully afforested world with extensive wood harvesting and (iv) a full-cropland world with extensive irrigation. In these idealized sensitivity experiments, performed under present-day climate conditions, the effects of the different LCLMC strategies represent an upper bound for the potential of global mitigation and local adaptation. To disentangle the local and non-local effects from the LCLMC, a checkerboard-like LCLMC perturbation, i.e. alternating grid boxes with and without LCLMC, is applied. The local effects of deforestation on surface temperature are largely consistent across the ESMs and the observations, with a cooling in boreal latitudes and a warming in the tropics. However, the energy balance components driving the change in surface temperature show less consistency across the ESMs and the observations. Additionally, some biases exist in specific ESMs, such as a strong albedo response in CESM mid-latitudes and a soil-thawing-driven warming in boreal latitudes in EC-EARTH. The non-local effects on surface temperature are broadly consistent across ESMs for afforestation, though larger model uncertainty exists for cropland expansion. Irrigation clearly induces a cooling effect; however, the ESMs disagree whether these are mainly local or non-local effects. Wood harvesting is found to have no discernible biogeophysical effects on climate. Overall, our results underline the potential of ensemble simulations to inform decision making regarding future climate consequences of land-based mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Abstract. Land cover and land management change (LCLMC) has been highlighted for its critical role in mitigation scenarios in terms of both global mitigation and local adaptation. Yet, the climate effect of individual LCLMC options, their dependence on the background climate, and the local vs. non-local responses are still poorly understood across different Earth system models (ESMs). Here we simulate the climatic effects of LCLMC using three state-of-the-art ESMs, including the Community Earth System Model (CESM), the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM), and the European Consortium Earth System Model (EC-EARTH). We assess the LCLMC effects using four idealized experiments: (i) a fully afforested world, (ii) a world fully covered by cropland, (iii) a fully afforested world with extensive wood harvesting, and (iv) a full cropland world with extensive irrigation. In these idealized sensitivity experiments performed under present-day climate conditions, the effects of the different LCLMC strategies represent an upper bound for the potential of global mitigation and local adaptation. To disentangle the local and non-local effects from the LCLMC, a checkerboard-like LCLMC perturbation, i.e. alternating grid boxes with and without LCLMC, is applied. The local effects of deforestation on surface temperature are largely consistent across the ESMs and the observations, with a cooling in boreal latitudes and a warming in the tropics. However, the energy balance components driving the change in surface temperature show less consistency across the ESMs and the observations. Additionally, some biases exist in specific ESMs, such as a strong albedo response in CESM mid-latitudes and a soil-thawing-driven warming in boreal latitudes in EC-EARTH. The non-local effects on surface temperature are broadly consistent across ESMs for afforestation, though larger model uncertainty exists for cropland expansion. Irrigation clearly induces a cooling effect; however, the ESMs disagree regarding whether these are mainly local or non-local effects. Wood harvesting is found to have no discernible biogeophysical effects on climate. Our results overall underline the potential of ensemble simulations to inform decision-making regarding future climate consequences of land-based mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Land cover and land management change (LCLMC) has been highlighted for its critical role in mitigation scenarios, both in terms of global mitigation and local adaptation. Yet, the climate effect of individual LCLMC options, their dependence on the background climate and the local vs. non-local responses are still poorly understood across different Earth System Models (ESMs). Here we simulate the climatic effects of LCLMC using three state-of-the-art ESMs, including the Community Earth System Model (CESM), the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) and the European Consortium Earth System Model (EC-EARTH). We assess the LCLMC effects using four idealized experiments: (i) a fully afforested world, (ii) a world fully covered by cropland, (ii) a fully afforested world with extensive wood harvesting, and (iv) a full cropland world with extensive irrigation. In these idealized sensitivity experiments, performed under present-day climate conditions, the effects of the different LCLMC strategies represent an upper bound for the potential of global mitigation and local adaptation. To disentangle the local and non-local effects from the LCLMC, a checkerboard-like LCLMC perturbation, i.e., alternating grid boxes with and without LCLMC, is applied. The local effects of deforestation on surface temperature are largely consistent across the ESMs and the observations, with a cooling in boreal latitudes and a warming in the tropics. However, the energy balance components driving the change in surface temperature show less consistency across the ESMs and the observations. Additionally, some biases exist in specific ESMs, such as a strong albedo response in CESM mid-latitudes and a soil thawing driven warming in boreal latitudes in EC-EARTH. The non-local effects on surface temperature are broadly consistent across ESMs for afforestation, though larger model uncertainty exists for cropland expansion. Irrigation clearly induces a cooling effect, however; the ESMs disagree whether these are mainly local or non-local effects. Wood harvesting is found to have no discernible biogeophysical effects on climate. Our results overall underline the potential of ensemble simulations to inform decision making regarding future climate consequences of land-based mitigation and adaptation strategies.

The Earth system model of the A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS ESM) includes blocks describing the state of the atmosphere, ocean, active layer of land, biogeochemical cycles, processes related to atmospheric electricity and atmospheric chemistry. It belongs to the class of Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) and participates in relevant international comparison projects. A special feature of the model is the parameterization of synoptic variability in the atmosphere and ocean, which allows accelerating simulations by two orders of magnitude. The model realistically reproduces climate changes over the period of instrumental measurements and can be used for assessments of past and future climate changes on time scales from decades to millennia. With the IAP RAS ESM, the a number of important results related to identifying the causes of climate change in different epochs, analyzing the influence of biogeochemical cycles on climate change and causal relationships in the Earth's climate system and the comparative role of various external natural and anthropogenic factors.