Rethinking Financial Contagion

Contagion in Financial Networks

This study defines the cognitive structure of financial networks research by looking at the terms scholars have used over the last 31 years of research. Applying co-word analysis over a sample of 680 records extracted from Scopus database, the findings reveal that that the literature on financial networks is made up of six thematic clusters, these are: Dynamics of financial networks, Complex banking networks, Risk and contagion in financial networks, Topology and structure of financial networks, Main methodologies and techniques and Post-crisis responses. In addition to laying the groundwork for understanding financial networks through a retrospective view, this study shows how bibliometrics (especially co-words analysis) can contribute to reducing conceptual ambiguity in emerging research fields, such as financial networks research, and open doors for future research.

Optimization in curbing risk contagion among financial institutes

Distress and Default Contagion in Financial Networks

While entrepreneurship is one of the most studied topics in business research, findings have been mixed regarding the traits of entrepreneurs. Some of the confusion in the literature may be explained by findings such as John Miner's who identified four personality types capable of achieving entrepreneurial success (Miner and Raju, 2004). Indeed, several authors differentiated between different entrepreneurial subgroups. However, almost all writers assumed that entrepreneurs have distinct personality traits. Among the traits mentioned most often were: high need for achievement, need for control, autonomy, independence, self-confidence, initiative, optimism, imagination, persistence, leadership, competitiveness and risk taking. Against all this body of research comes the claim that the entrepreneurial personality is nothing but a myth. The current study is the fourth in a series of studies on Israeli entrepreneurs that explored their personal traits, from a macro cross-cultural and cultural perspective, through a mezzo occupational perspective to a micro individual behavioral perspective. This study, coming from a micro individual perspective, examined the correlates of the set of personal traits portraying Israeli entrepreneurs found in our previous research. It showed a. that entrepreneurial traits such as love of challenge, initiative, optimism, creativity and energy are highly correlated with risk-taking propensity; b. that this set of traits are also correlated with higher level of venture uncertainty in terms of market and technological uncertainty, and c. ventures with higher levels of uncertainty and risk create higher opportunities for future activities such as entering new markets and introducing new product lines, but are less efficient in terms of meeting schedule and budget goals.

Effets de la dominance oculaire sur la coordination œil–main dans les duels sportifs

Over the past 30 years, research on married women's labor force participation has concluded vlrtua!ly without exception that the principal source of labor force participation rate growth for married women has been the concurrent growth of women's real wages. The experience of the 1970's suggests, however, that real wage growth cannot account for the Increase In participation rates that occurred during that period. This paper argues that an Important determinant of married women's current participation decisions Is the level of uncertainty associated with expectations of future wages, and that high levels of uncertainty during the 1970's may have contributed sUbstantially to the growth in participation that occurred during that time. Engle's model of autoregressive conditional heteroscedastlclty (ARCH) Is appl led to aggregate time series data covering the years 1956-1986 to measure the level of uncertainty at each point In time. Our estimates Indicate support for the basic hypothesis that the level of uncertainty is an Important determinant of labor force participation decisions for married women.

Background: Patients tend to develop a sense of uncertainty when they lack control over the progress of the disease, and physical discomforts. The sense of uncertainty that patients develop when facing their disease or treatment may elicit physical and psychological distress which can influence the patients’ coping behaviors. Purpose: This study investigated the relationships between cirrhotic patients’ sense of uncertainty and coping behaviors. Methods: A cross-sectional, correlational research design was used. Convenience sampling was performed to select 76 cirrhotic inpatients in the division of gastroenterology at a hospital in Southern Taiwan. Three structured questionnaires (Personal Characteristics Questionnaire, Mishel Uncertainty in Illness Scale, Coping Behaviors Scale) were used for data collection. Results: (a) Cirrhotic patients perceived a moderate or increased level of uncertainty and problemoriented coping behaviors were the most frequently used coping behaviors. (b) Patients who had no religion, who had fatigue or severe disease conditions exhibited comparatively high levels of uncertainty. (c) Patients who were singled or unemployed, or fatigue often showed emotion-oriented coping behaviors. Consuming alcohol frequency, illness severity was positively correlated with emotionoriented coping behaviors. (d) Patients who were unemployed often exhibited problem-oriented coping behaviors. Educational level and consuming alcohol frequency were positively correlated with problemoriented coping behaviors. (e) Patients’ sense of uncertainty was positively correlated with emotion- and problem-oriented coping behaviors. Conclusions/ Implications for Practice: Since cirrhotic patients frequently exhibit emotion-oriented coping behaviors and have high level of uncertainty, nurses could encourage them to express their emotions and problems, and listen to them patiently. If patients were high levels of uncertainty, and exhibit problem-oriented coping behaviors, by spontaneously providing disease-related information and social support, they can readily adopt to their disease conditions.

A Network Model of Financial System Resilience

A network model of financial system resilience

In financial credit networks, prepayments enable a firm to settle its debt obligations ahead of an agreed-upon due date. Prepayments have a transformative impact on the structure of networks, influencing the financial well-being (utility) of individual firms. This study investigates prepayments from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. We first establish the computational complexity of finding prepayments that maximize welfare, assuming global coordination among firms in the financial network. Subsequently, our focus shifts to understanding the strategic behavior of individual firms in the presence of prepayments. We introduce a prepayment game where firms strategically make prepayments, delineating the existence of pure strategy Nash equilibria and analyzing the price of anarchy (stability) within this game. Recognizing the computational challenges associated with determining Nash equilibria in prepayment games, we use a simulation-based approach, known as empirical game-theoretic analysis (EGTA). Through EGTA, we are able to find Nash equilibria among a carefully-chosen set of heuristic strategies. By examining the equilibrium behavior of firms, we outline the characteristics of high-performing strategies for strategic prepayments and establish connections between our empirical and theoretical findings.

Objective To investigate the relationship between uncertainty in illness and coping style in patients with gastric cancer.Methods The Mishel's Uncertainty in Illness Scale (MUIS) and Medical Coping Modes Questionnaire (MCMQ) were used to investigateuncertainty in illness and coping styleamong 120 patients with gastric cancer.Results The total score of patients' uncertainty in illness was 45 ～ 101,with the average score as (69.92 ± 9.85) and average score for each item as (2.80 ± 0.39).Score of uncertain factors was 29 ～71,with the average as (45.32 ±8.18).Score of complexity factors was 14 ～35,with the average as (24.61 ±4.14).There were 6 patients with low level of uncertainty,accounting for 5％,180 patients with medium level of uncertainty,accounting for 90％,and 6 patients with high level of uncertainty,accounting for 5％.Before the surgery,before chemotherapy and after surgery and during chemotherapy,the total score of uncertainty in patients was respectively (80.12 ± 8.31),(64.08 ± 5.33) and (64.82 ± 4.86),score of uncertain factors was respectively (52.83 ± 8.31),(40.78 ± 5.01)and (41.79 ± 3.51),and sore of complexity factors was respectively (27.29 ± 3.72),(23.30 ± 3.91) and (23.03 ± 3.33),with statistically significant differences (F =81.81,50.10,17.27,respectively; P ＜ 0.01).There was also statistically significant difference of coping style during three different stages (P ＜0.01).The score of uncertainty in illness as well as its two factors was negatively related to coping style such as confrontation and avoidance (P ＜ 0.05),and positively to coping style like surrender (P ＜ 0.05).Conclusions Uncertainty in illness is common in gastric cancer patients and significantly related to their coping style,which need more attention and should be reduced by corresponding intervention methods. Key words: Gastric cancer; Uncertainty in illness; Coping style; Correlation

This thesis develops and tests a theory of the firm's performance control system and its determinants. Firms have unique combinations of production, investment, environmental, and competitive attributes, and therefore have unique sets of work processes. As a result, performance control demands are also firm-specific. Previous Contingency Theory research has provided insights into the appropriate use of accounting information for performance control, and normative accounting system research has promoted the need for non-financial performance measurement under some circumstances. However, neither provides clear guidelines for the application of their findings to practical control system design. More recently, implicit contracting researchers have described an alternative governance style, implicit contracting, which has advantages in circumstances where empirical information is costly and ambiguous. The transaction cost economics framework presents an opportunity to develop and test an holistic and parsimonious theory of performance control which addresses issues of both measurable and non-measurable performance control. Its application to the issue of internal firm governance in this research extends costly contracting research into an area where little has previously been reported. A model was developed incorporating uncertainty and asset-specificity as the determinants of performance control choices. Six sets of hypotheses were developed describing choices from different control system components in consideration of levels of the two determinants. The hypothesised choices reflect the impact of different levels of uncertainty and asset-specificity on availability of performance information. Data to test the hypotheses were collected from diverse work units because the two determinants in the model, uncertainty and asset-specificity, are present in all work situations. Membership lists from three professional bodies provided the basis of a non-probability sample; the three were the Australian Society of Certified Practicing Accountants, the Australian Computer Society, and the Australian Institute of Management. Using a mail survey, data were collected from three hundred and ten work units representing a range of different industries and functions, sizes of organisation, technologies, and ownership groups. A limited sub-sample of these respondents subsequently took part in structured interviews about their performance control practices. Four major findings emerged from the study. First, uncertainty within a work unit significantly affects the mix of explicit and implicit controls, with an observed shift in mix towards greater reliance on implicit contracts. At the same time that the mix shifts towards implicit contracting, reliance on both implicit and explicit contracts increases. This finding indicates that, even though the information content of explicit data is imperfect, it has net value in assisting interpretation of performance. Second, greater levels of asset-specificity are also associated with increases in reliance on both implicit and explicit contracting. However, the mix between the two components remains essentially unaltered. Third, reliance on measures of both input and output increase at higher levels of uncertainty and asset-specificity. There was no change in the mix between input and output measures, indicating that they supplement each other. Imperfect input measures assist in the interpretation of imperfect output measures. Fourth, both determinants are associated with greater use of financial and non-financial measurement units. The mix between measurement unit remains approximately unaltered when considering level of uncertainty, but greater asset specificity is associated with a slight shift towards greater use of non-financial measurement. The findings of this research have implications when firms make choices about what performance to measure, and how to control performance in circumstances where empirical performance indicators are imperfect. Firms choosing their optimum mix of controls can refer to guidelines developed from this research.

Power system states are not accurately known ahead of real time and are subject to natural variability, which leads to uncertainty in the system. Sources of uncertainty are amongst others load, renewable energy sources and contingencies. An aggregate measure for system's uncertainty is determined in order to have a single quantified value of the uncertainty level in the system. This allows to compare performance of power system reliability management according to various reliability criteria at different uncertainty levels in a transparent manner. A case study for a 5 node test system illustrates the use of the aggregate uncertainty measure and the impact of different uncertainty levels on short term reliability management of transmission system operators according to three reliability criteria. Results of the case study illustrate that probabilistic reliability management can lead to significant improvements in performance in terms of total system cost and curtailment of non-flexible load compared to reliability management based on deterministic N-0 and N-1 criteria, especially at high uncertainty levels in heavily loaded system conditions.

Systemic risk in banking systems arises from losses transmitted through networks of contractual exposures. Yet, most widely used measures rely on market-implied volatility and equity prices rather than structural balance sheet fragilities. This paper develops a flow network framework that models systemic risk as a capacity-constrained loss-diffusion process governed by flow conservation, contractual seniority, and interbank topology. Using regulatory balance sheet data for four major U.S. banks across six quarters of the 2007–2008 financial crisis, we simulate millions of unit-consistent cascade scenarios to characterize the distribution of bank failures and aggregate losses. Despite severe macro-financial stress, the system remains in a subcritical contagion regime, exhibiting frequent single-bank failures, virtually no multi-bank cascades, and quasi-stationary aggregate losses concentrated around USD 420–430B.We extend the model to a stochastic setting in which the initial shock magnitude is randomized while propagation mechanics remain deterministic. The resulting loss distribution remains tightly concentrated and scales approximately linearly with shock size, suggesting that uncertainty in shock realizations does not induce nonlinear cascade amplification. Applying an efficient network benchmark, we estimate that 10–23% of expected systemic loss is attributable to suboptimal network architecture, implying potential gains from structural policy intervention. A comparison with SRISK reveals early divergence and convergence only at peak stress, highlighting the complementary roles of structural and market-based systemic risk measures. Finally, a graph neural network trained on synthetic flow network data fails to reproduce threshold-driven cascade dynamics, underscoring the importance of considering network structures vis-à-vis data-driven approaches.