Revealing the Power of Masked Autoencoders in Traffic Forecasting

With the exponential increase in the urban population, urban transportation systems are confronted with numerous challenges. Traffic congestion is common, traffic accidents happen frequently, and traffic environments are deteriorating. To alleviate these issues and improve the efficiency of urban transportation, accurate traffic forecasting is crucial. In this study, we aim to provide a comprehensive overview of the overall architecture of traffic forecasting, covering aspects such as traffic data analysis, traffic data modeling, and traffic forecasting applications. We begin by introducing existing traffic forecasting surveys and preliminaries. Next, we delve into traffic data analysis from traffic data collection, traffic data formats, and traffic data characteristics. Additionally, we summarize traffic data modeling from spatial representation, temporal representation, and spatio-temporal representation. Furthermore, we discuss the application of traffic forecasting, including traffic flow forecasting, traffic speed forecasting, traffic demand forecasting, and other hybrid traffic forecasting. To support future research in this field, we also provide information on open datasets, source resources, challenges, and potential research directions. As far as we know, this paper represents the first comprehensive survey that focuses specifically on the overall architecture of traffic forecasting.

Traffic prediction plays an important role in the intelligent transportation system (ITS), because it can increase people’s travel convenience. Despite the deep neural network has been widely used in the field of traffic prediction, literature surveys of such methods and data categories are rare. In this paper, we have a summary of traffic forecasting from data, methods and challenges. Firstly, we are according to the difference of in spatio-temporal dimensions, divide the data into three types, including the spatio-temporal static data, spatial static time dynamic data, and spatio-temporal dynamic data. Secondly, we explore three significant neural networks of deep learning in traffic prediction, including the convolutional neural network (CNN), the recurrent neural network (RNN), and the hybrid neural networks models. These methods are used in many aspects of traffic prediction, including road traffic accidents forecast, road traffic flow prediction, road traffic speed forecast, and road traffic congestion forecast introduced. Finally, we provide a discussion of some current challenges and development prospects. KeywordsDeep neural networkTraffic forecastingSpatio-temporal data

Accurate traffic speed forecasting is a prerequisite for anticipating future traffic status and increasing the resilience of intelligent transportation systems. However, most studies ignore the involvement of context information ubiquitously distributed over the urban environment to boost speed prediction. The diversity and complexity of context information also hinder incorporating it into traffic forecasting. Therefore, this study proposes a multimodal context-based graph convolutional neural network (MCGCN) model to fuse context data into traffic speed prediction, including spatial and temporal contexts. The proposed model comprises three modules, ie (a) hierarchical spatial embedding to learn spatial representations by organizing spatial contexts from different dimensions, (b) multivariate temporal modeling to learn temporal representations by capturing dependencies of multivariate temporal contexts and (c) attention-based multimodal fusion to integrate traffic speed with the spatial and temporal context representations for multi-step speed prediction. We conduct extensive experiments in Singapore. Compared to the baseline model (spatial-temporal graph convolutional network, STGCN), our results demonstrate the importance of multimodal contexts with the mean-absolute-error improvement of 0.29 km/h, 0.45 km/h and 0.89 km/h in 30-min, 60-min and 120-min speed prediction, respectively. We also explore how different contexts affect traffic speed forecasting, providing references for stakeholders to understand the relationship between context information and transportation systems.

Traffic flow prediction is an essential part of intelligent transportation systems (ITS), facilitating dynamic traffic control, congestion alleviation, and route planning. The past few years have seen the booming of Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), providing a strong tool to capture the sophisticated spatial compositions and dynamic temporal patterns inherent in urban road networks. In this paper, I provide a systematic and comprehensive review of GNN-based solutions for short-term traffic prediction. I first briefly review the basic concepts and categorization of GNNs, then elaborate on representative models such as spatial and spectral convolutional networks, temporal graph structures, and hybrid models with attention mechanisms and recurrent units. Besides, I recap typical traffic datasets and evaluation metrics, compare the performance of different models from multiple aspects, and highlight key technical challenges such as spatiotemporal heterogeneity, scalability, and interpretability. Finally, I suggest future research lines to improve the accuracy, efficiency, and robustness of GNN-based traffic prediction models for real-world ITS applications.

Globally, intelligent transportation systems utilize traffic predictions. Traffic congestion, route planning, and vehicle dispatching all benefit from accurate traffic forecasts. The road system’s changing geographical and temporal dependencies complicate the problem. In recent years, traffic forecasting has improved thanks to research, particularly deep learning. We investigate traffic predictions for Dhaka based on machine learning and deep learning techniques. The classification of existing traffic prediction methods comes first. To enable academics, we aggregate and arrange commonly used public datasets. We undertake comprehensive experiments on a publicly accessible real-world dataset to compare and contrast diverse methodologies. The contribution of the third section is automated approaches for traffic forecasting. In closing, we discuss some of the outstanding questions.

Traffic jam is increasingly aggravating in almost every urban area. Traffic forecast, traffic modeling, visualization can help to provide appropriate route and time for traveling and thus provides a significant impact on traffic jam reduction. For traffic forecasting, modeling and visualization, city-wide traffic data collection and analysis are needed, which is still challenging in many aspects. This paper aims to develop a tool for acquiring and processing traffic data from Google Maps that can be used for forecasting, modeling, and visualization. Dhaka city is used as a case study since there is no infrastructure available for traffic data collection. The traffic flow intensity of the road is analyzed to determine the congestion of the road. The flow intensity is used for traffic modeling, visualization, traffic prediction and many more.

Traffic forecasting plays a critical role in intelligent transportation systems (ITS) in smart cities. Travelers as well as urban managers rely on reliable traffic information to make their decisions for route choice and traffic management. However, noisy or missing traffic data poses a problem for accurate and robust traffic forecasting. While data-driven models such as deep neural networks can achieve high prediction accuracy with complete datasets, sensor malfunctions, and environmental effects degrade the performance of such models, as these models rely heavily on precise traffic measurements for model training and estimation. Consequently, incomplete traffic data poses a challenge for robust model design that can make accurate traffic forecasts with noisy/missing data. This research proposes the Robust Spatiotemporal Graph Convolutional Network (RT-GCN), a traffic prediction model that handles noise perturbations and missing data using a Gaussian distributed node representation and a variance based attention mechanism. Through experiments conducted on four real-world traffic datasets using diverse noisy and missing scenarios, the proposed RT-GCN model has demonstrated its ability to handle noise perturbations and missing values and provide high accuracy prediction.

In recent days, traffic prediction has been essential for modern transportation networks. Smart cities rely on traffic management and prediction systems. This study utilizes state-of-the-art deep learning and machine learning techniques to adjust to changing traffic conditions. Modern DL models, such as LSTM and GRU, are examined here to see whether they may enhance prediction accuracy and provide valuable insights. Repairing problems and errors connected to weather requires hybrid models that integrate deep learning with machine learning. These models need top-notch training data to be precise, flexible, and able to generalize. Researchers are continuously exploring new approaches, such as hybrid models, deep learning, and machine learning, to discover traffic flow data patterns that span several places and time periods. Our current traffic flow estimates need improvement. Some expected benefits are fewer pollutants, higher-quality air, and more straightforward urban transportation. With machine learning and deep learning, this study aims to improve traffic management in urban areas. Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models may reliably forecast traffic patterns

Traffic demand prediction based on spatial-temporal guided multi graph Sandwich-Transformer

Next-generation mobile networks are expected to meet the requirements of a wide range of new vertical services. Hence, the network slicing concept has been introduced, in which Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNOs) are allowed to provide various types of services over the same physical infrastructure, owned by an Infrastructure Provider (InP). To cope with an ever-changing traffic demand, MVNOs seek to pre-allocate/reconfigure the resources at the base stations in an anticipatory manner, based on traffic demand predictions. Ideally, conducting per-slice traffic forecasting requires information that is likely to disclose MVNO confidential information (i.e., business strategy or private user data). To secure data ownership while conducting traffic forecasting, we propose the Federated Proximal Long Short-Term Memory (FPLSTM) framework, which allows MVNOs to train their local models with their private dataset at each base station; subsequently, an associated InP global model can be updated through the aggregation of the local models. The results obtained by training the models on a real-world dataset indicate that the forecasting performance of our proposed approach is as accurate as state-of-the-art centralized solutions, while improving data privacy. To enable scalability, we further propose the Information-based Clustering FPLSTM (IC-FPLSTM) and Random Clustering FPLSTM (RC-FPLSTM) frameworks, dealing with large-scale cellular networks. These solutions demonstrate computation and communication cost efficiency significantly above the state-of-the-art.

Short-term traffic speed prediction is a promising research topic in intelligent transportation systems (ITSs), which also plays an important role in the real-time decision-making of traffic control and guidance systems. However, the urban traffic speed has strong temporal, spatial correlation and the characteristic of complex nonlinearity and randomness, which makes it challenging to accurately and efficiently forecast short-term traffic speeds. We investigate the relevant literature and found that although most methods can achieve good prediction performance with the complete sample data, when there is a certain missing rate in the database, it is difficult to maintain accuracy with these methods. Recent studies have shown that deep learning methods, especially long short-term memory (LSTM) models, have good results in short-term traffic flow prediction. Furthermore, the attention mechanism can properly assign weights to distinguish the importance of traffic time sequences, thereby further improving the computational efficiency of the prediction model. Therefore, we propose a framework for short-term traffic speed prediction, including data preprocessing module and short-term traffic prediction module. In the data preprocessing module, the missing traffic data are repaired to provide a complete dataset for subsequent prediction. In the prediction module, a combined deep learning method that is an attention-based LSTM (ATT-LSTM) model for predicting short-term traffic speed on urban roads is proposed. The proposed framework was applied to the urban road network in Nanshan District, Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, China, with a 30-day traffic speed dataset (floating car data) used as the experimental sample. Results show that the proposed method outperforms other deep learning algorithms (such as recurrent neural network (RNN) and convolutional neural network (CNN)) in terms of both calculating efficiency and prediction accuracy. The attention mechanism can significantly reduce the error of the LSTM model (up to 12.4%) and improves the prediction performance.

PurposeThe study aims to propose an intelligent real-time traffic model to address the traffic congestion problem. The proposed model assists the urban population in their everyday lives by assessing the probability of road accidents and accurate traffic information prediction. It also helps in reducing overall carbon dioxide emissions in the environment and assists the urban population in their everyday lives by increasing overall transportation quality.Design/methodology/approachThis study offered a real-time traffic model based on the analysis of numerous sensor data. Real-time traffic prediction systems can identify and visualize current traffic conditions on a particular lane. The proposed model incorporated data from road sensors as well as a variety of other sources. It is difficult to capture and process large amounts of sensor data in real time. Sensor data is consumed by streaming analytics platforms that use big data technologies, which is then processed using a range of deep learning and machine learning techniques.FindingsThe study provided in this paper would fill a gap in the data analytics sector by delivering a more accurate and trustworthy model that uses internet of things sensor data and other data sources. This method can also assist organizations such as transit agencies and public safety departments in making strategic decisions by incorporating it into their platforms.Research limitations/implicationsThe model has a big flaw in that it makes predictions for the period following January 2020 that are not particularly accurate. This, however, is not a flaw in the model; rather, it is a flaw in Covid-19, the global epidemic. The global pandemic has impacted the traffic scenario, resulting in erratic data for the period after February 2020. However, once the circumstance returns to normal, the authors are confident in their model’s ability to produce accurate forecasts.Practical implicationsTo help users choose when to go, this study intended to pinpoint the causes of traffic congestion on the highways in the Bay Area as well as forecast real-time traffic speeds. To determine the best attributes that influence traffic speed in this study, the authors obtained data from the Caltrans performance measurement system (PeMS), reviewed it and used multiple models. The authors developed a model that can forecast traffic speed while accounting for outside variables like weather and incident data, with decent accuracy and generalizability. To assist users in determining traffic congestion at a certain location on a specific day, the forecast method uses a graphical user interface. This user interface has been designed to be readily expanded in the future as the project’s scope and usefulness increase. The authors’ Web-based traffic speed prediction platform is useful for both municipal planners and individual travellers. The authors were able to get excellent results by using five years of data (2015–2019) to train the models and forecast outcomes for 2020 data. The authors’ algorithm produced highly accurate predictions when tested using data from January 2020. The benefits of this model include accurate traffic speed forecasts for California’s four main freeways (Freeway 101, I-680, 880 and 280) for a specific place on a certain date. The scalable model performs better than the vast majority of earlier models created by other scholars in the field. The government would benefit from better planning and execution of new transportation projects if this programme were to be extended across the entire state of California. This initiative could be expanded to include the full state of California, assisting the government in better planning and implementing new transportation projects.Social implicationsTo estimate traffic congestion, the proposed model takes into account a variety of data sources, including weather and incident data. According to traffic congestion statistics, “bottlenecks” account for 40% of traffic congestion, “traffic incidents” account for 25% and “work zones” account for 10% (Traffic Congestion Statistics). As a result, incident data must be considered for analysis. The study uses traffic, weather and event data from the previous five years to estimate traffic congestion in any given area. As a result, the results predicted by the proposed model would be more accurate, and commuters who need to schedule ahead of time for work would benefit greatly.Originality/valueThe proposed work allows the user to choose the optimum time and mode of transportation for them. The underlying idea behind this model is that if a car spends more time on the road, it will cause traffic congestion. The proposed system encourages users to arrive at their location in a short period of time. Congestion is an indicator that public transportation needs to be expanded. The optimum route is compared to other kinds of public transit using this methodology (Greenfield, 2014). If the commute time is comparable to that of private car transportation during peak hours, consumers should take public transportation.

Traffic parameter forecasting is critical to effective traffic management but is a challenging task due to the stochasticity of traffic flow characteristics, especially in urban road networks. Traffic networks can be affected by external factors, such as weather, events, accidents, and road construction works. The impact of these factors can affect traffic flow parameters by influencing travel time, density, occupancy, and operating speed. Although deep neural networks (DNNs) have recently shown promising signs in traffic prediction using big data, there still exists the issue of maximizing the use of the model capabilities by using big data sources. This paper proposes an improved urban traffic speed prediction approach involving input-level data fusion and deep learning. Motivated by deep learning prediction methods, we propose a Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network (LSTM-NN) for traffic speed prediction that combines traffic and weather datasets on an urban road network in Greater Manchester, United Kingdom. The experimental results substantiate the value of the approach when compared to the use of traffic-only data sources for traffic speed prediction.

BackgroundShort-term associations between heat and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality have been examined mostly in large cities. However, different vulnerability and exposure levels may contribute to spatial heterogeneity. This study assessed heat effects on CVD mortality and potential vulnerability factors using data from three European countries, including urban and rural settings. MethodsWe collected daily counts of CVD deaths aggregated at the small-area level in Norway (small-area level: municipality), England and Wales (lower super output areas), and Germany (district) during the warm season (May-September) from 1996 to 2018. Daily mean air temperatures estimated by spatial–temporal models were assigned to each small area. Within each country, we applied area-specific Quasi-Poisson regression using distributed lag nonlinear models to examine the heat effects at lag 0–1 days. The area-specific estimates were pooled by random-effects meta-analysis to derive country-specific and overall heat effects. We examined individual- and area-level heat vulnerability factors by subgroup analyses and meta-regression, respectively. ResultsWe included 2.84 million CVD deaths in analyses. For an increase in temperature from the 75th to the 99th percentile, the pooled relative risk (RR) for CVD mortality was 1.14 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.26), with the country-specific RRs ranging from 1.04 (1.00, 1.09) in Norway to 1.24 (1.23, 1.26) in Germany. Heat effects were stronger among women [RRs (95% CIs) for women and men: 1.18 (1.08, 1.28) vs. 1.12 (1.00, 1.24)]. Greater heat vulnerability was observed in areas with high population density, high degree of urbanization, low green coverage, and high levels of fine particulate matter. ConclusionThis study provides evidence for the heat effects on CVD mortality in European countries using high-resolution data from both urban and rural areas. Besides, we identified individual- and area-level heat vulnerability factors. Our findings may facilitate the development of heat-health action plans to increase resilience to climate change.

Traffic flow forecasting is one of the key issues in smart traffic systems. The process of traffic flow changing involves a high degree of nonlinearity and randomness, environmental interference and measurement noise, which brings difficulties to accurate traffic flow prediction. Aiming at improving the accuracy of short-term traffic flow prediction, this paper proposes a method called Basis Prediction method. A raw traffic flow series can be deemed as a summation of a basis series that indicates the changeable trend of the traffic flow and a deviation series that represents the random interference information involved in the flow. The basis series comprises mainly low-frequency signals and the deviation series is composed of some high-frequency signals. Based on an appropriate extraction of the basis series, prediction merely of the basis series brings more precise prediction of the raw traffic flow. This paper suggests adopting wavelet decomposition to obtain the basis series and the deviation series from the raw traffic flow. To predict the basis series effectively, two algorithms, local weighted partial least squares (LW-PLS) and Kalman filtering, are adopted separately and a comparison between them is also provided. In this paper, real data of traffic flow of Xinbei city in Taiwan was collected and used for validation of the proposed basis prediction method. The results show that the use of that proposed method improves the accuracy of short-term traffic flow prediction by about 2% on average.