Reversibility in an Earth System model in response to CO2 concentration changes

The climatic effects of very large changes of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere are explored using a general circulation model of the coupled ocean‐atmosphere system. As a simplification the model has an annual mean insolation and a highly idealized geography, A series of climatic equilibria are obtained for cases with ½, 1/√2, 1, 2, 4, and 8 times the present CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. The results from these six numerical experiments indicate the climatic signatures of large CO2 changes in the atmosphere and in the abyssal and surface waters of the ocean. As the CO2 concentration in the model atmosphere increased from 1 to 8 times the normal value, the meridional gradient of surface air temperature decreased, while that of upper tropospheric temperature increased in agreement with the results of earlier CO2 climate sensitivity studies. However, the intensity and latitudinal placement of the atmospheric jet hardly changed. Despite the reduction of meridional temperature gradient, the meridional density gradient of water at the ocean surface changed little because of the increase of thermal expansion coefficient of seawater with increasing temperature. Thus the intensity of thermohaline circulation in the ocean model does not diminish as expected in the range from 1 to 8 times the normal atmospheric CO2 concentration. As was shown in an earlier study, the CO2‐induced changes in the deep sea follow the change of sea surface temperature in high latitudes and thus are much larger than the globally averaged changes of sea surface temperature. The model predicts that the area mean rates of precipitation, evaporation, and runoff increase with increasing CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. The latitudes of the arid zone and the high surface pressure belt in the subtropics are almost constant in the entire range of 1–8 times normal CO2. In general, the climatic signature obtained from the model appears to be consistent with a CO2 hypothesis for the climatic changes in the Cenozoic with the following exception: the tropical sea surface temperature in the model has a small but significant increase with increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration, while tropical sea surface temperature as deduced from the isotopic record appears to have no systematic trend during the Tertiary. It is found that the climate corresponding to one‐half normal CO2 is markedly different from the normal and high‐CO2 cases. Sea ice extends to middle latitudes, and the thermohaline circulation in the model ocean loses its intensity and is largely confined to an area between the sea ice margin and the equator. The poleward heat transport by ocean currents is very small in high latitudes, markedly reducing the surface air temperature there. It is suggested that a similar process, which enhances the positive albedo feedback effect of sea ice, played a key role in reducing surface air temperatures over the North Atlantic during the last glacial maximum.

Abstract. Limiting global warming to well below 2 ∘C by the end of the century is an ambitious target that requires immediate and unprecedented emission reductions. In the absence of sufficient near-term mitigation, this target will only be achieved by carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere later during this century, which would entail a period of temperature overshoot. Aside from the socio-economic feasibility of large-scale CDR, which remains unclear, the effects on biogeochemical cycles and climate are key to assessing CDR as a mitigation option. Changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate alter the CO2 exchange between the atmosphere and the underlying carbon reservoirs of the land and the ocean. Here, we investigate carbon cycle feedbacks under idealized and more realistic overshoot scenarios in an ensemble of Earth system models. The responses of oceanic and terrestrial carbon stocks to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration and changes in surface climate (the carbon–concentration feedback and the carbon–climate feedback, quantified by the feedback metrics β and γ, respectively) show a large hysteresis. This hysteresis leads to growing absolute values of β and γ during phases of negative emissions. We find that this growth over time occurs such that the spatial patterns of feedbacks do not change significantly for individual models. We confirm that the β and γ feedback metrics are a relatively robust tool to characterize inter-model differences in feedback strength since the relative feedback strength remains largely stable between phases of positive and negative emissions and between different simulations, although exceptions exist. When the emissions become negative, we find that the model uncertainty (model disagreement) in β and γ increases more strongly than expected from the assumption that the uncertainties would accumulate linearly with time. This indicates that the model response to a change from increasing to decreasing forcing introduces an additional layer of uncertainty, at least in idealized simulations with a strong signal. We also briefly discuss the existing alternative definition of feedback metrics based on instantaneous carbon fluxes instead of carbon stocks and provide recommendations for the way forward and future model intercomparison projects.

Rising atmospheric CO2 concentration is a major driver of climate change. One of the several processes proposed to explain the lower atmospheric CO2 concentration during the last glacial period is an increase in aeolian iron flux into the Southern Ocean. As the Southern Ocean is a high-nutrient-low-chlorophyll region, increased iron deposition can impact Southern Ocean marine ecosystems,  increase export production, and reduce surface Dissolved Inorganic Carbon (DIC) concentration. Here, we investigate the responses of Southern Ocean marine ecosystems to changes in iron flux and their impact on ocean biogeochemistry and atmospheric CO2 during the last glacial period. We use a recently developed complex ecosystem model that includes four different classes of phytoplankton functional types and fully incorporated iron, silica and calcium carbonate cycles. We show that the changes in atmospheric CO2 are more sensitive to the solubility of iron in the ocean than the regional distribution of the iron fluxes. If surface water iron solubility is considered constant through time, we find a CO2 drawdown of ∼4 to ∼8 ppm. However, there is evidence that iron solubility was higher during glacial times. A best estimate of solubility changing from 1 % during interglacials to 3 % to 5 % under glacial conditions yields a ∼9 to 11 ppm CO2 decrease at 70 ka, while a plausible range of CO2 drawdown between 4 to 16 ppm is obtained using the wider but possible range of 1 % to 10 %. We also show that the decrease in CO2 as a function of Southern Ocean iron input follows an exponential decay relationship, which arises due to the saturation of the biological pump efficiency and levels out at ∼21 ppm in our simulations.We also investigate the role of iron flux changes on the abrupt atmospheric CO2 increase during Heinrich Stadials, which are associated with a near collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a sudden decrease in Greenland temperature and warming in the Southern Ocean. Previous modelling studies have investigated the role of the ocean circulation in driving changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration during these abrupt events, while the role of reduced aeolian iron input during Heinrich stadials remained poorly constrained. We show that a weakened iron fertilisation during Heinrich Stadials can lead to ~6 ppm rise in CO2 out of the total increase of 15 to 20ppm as observed. This is caused by a 5% reduction in nutrient utilisation in the Southern Ocean, leading to reduced export production and increased carbon outgassing from the Southern Ocean.

The described experiments tested the membrane contactor technology in an enological context to find the principal factors that influenced CO2 and O2 transfer rates. A mathematical model was developed to predict the most influential factors for CO2 and O2 concentration changes after membrane passage. Lumen side pressure, initial CO2 concentration in the liquid, and, to a lesser degree, the temperature of the liquid and the gas flow rate had a significant effect on the CO2 concentration changes in the liquid and subsequent CO2 transfer rates through the membrane. The most influential factors for O2 concentration changes were the initial O2 concentration in the liquid and the flow rate of the liquid. All other tested factors were negligible for O2. An increasing positive pressure in the lumen side induced a linear increase in the CO2 concentration of the wine, whereas an increasing negative pressure on the lumen side induced a linear decrease in the CO2 concentration of the wine. In both cases, a linear decrease in the O2 concentration was observed.

In an attempt to understand better the local biogeochemistry of the South China Sea (SCS) and to unravel the contribution of this marginal low‐latitude basin to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations, we analyzed the carbon isotopic composition of organic matter (δ13Corg) in four sediment cores from throughout the SCS covering the last 220 kyr. Higher values (around −19.5 to −20.5‰) mark glacial stages, while lower values (around −21 to −22.5‰) are characteristic of interglacials. Following well established procedures, the δ13Corg records are converted to local pCO2 estimates. On the basis of these and other low‐latitude δ13Corg−pCO2 estimates from the literature, we present a critical evaluation of the use of δ13C of bulk sedimentary organic matter to hindcast past changes in local CO2(aq). Three crucial pitfalls are identified. (1) Given the present inability to quantify precisely the time‐varying amount of terrigenous Corg input to marine sediments, absolute values of pCO2 estimates based on bulk sedimentary Corg are questionable. (2) None of the low‐latitude sedimentary δ13Corg−pCO2 records shows the expected correlation between temporal changes in upwelling intensity and CO2 estimates, most likely due to the antagonistic influences of CO2(aq) and phytoplankton growth rate on δ13Corg. (3) A detailed comparison of marine δ13Corg−pCO2 records with the Vostok CO2 record reveals significant differences in phasing, specifically at the end of the last deglaciation and during the oxygen isotope stage 5/4 transition. However, in areas where equilibrium between oceanic and atmospheric CO2 occurs, for example the SCS and the Mediterranean, the timing of changes in δ13Corg should agree with the CO2 record from ice cores if δ13Corg is a reliable proxy for changes in CO2(aq). Taken together, the compilation of records presented here cautions the use of δ13Corg as an unambiguous tracer of dissolved molecular CO2 in the surface ocean and calls for a re‐evaluation of the role of the low‐latitude ocean on temporal changes in atmospheric CO2.

During deglaciation disintegration of large-scale continental ice sheets represents a continuous threat to reduce the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) via meltwater perturbations to the northern high latitudes. Nevertheless, an abrupt AMOC recovery is detected half-way through the last deglaciation and  a growing number of studies using Earth System Models (ESMs) of varying complexity have shown that atmospheric CO2 concentrations and ice sheet volume can influence the operational mode of the AMOC, eventually including the coexistence of multiple states and associated threshold behavior for intermediate climate states between full glacial (e.g. Last Glacial Maximum, LGM) and full interglacial (e.g. pre-industrial, PD)  conditions. In this study we present results from coordinated sensitivity experiments conducted as part of the German climate modeling initiative (PalMod), using three complex ESMs (AWI-ESM, CESM and MPI-ESM). Besides differences in the impact of CO2 and ice volume changes, we also investigate how variations in these boundary conditions control the AMOC sensitivity to deglacial meltwater injections in the North Atlantic. We find that the AMOC strength responds to ice sheet and/or CO2 changes in all models, with partly opposing effects.  A similar AMOC strength for PD and LGM conditions is detected in AWI-ESM and MPI-ESM, while CESM shows a weaker LGM AMOC. This weaker LGM state is also characterized by a relatively pronounced AMOC sensitivity to freshwater perturbations. Our inter-comparison experiments suggest that this specific behavior in CESM can be detected for atmospheric concentrations between LGM and intermediate levels of ~220 ppm. This further corroborates in particular the impact of CO2 changes to modulate the trajectory of deglacial climate changes by an alteration of the AMOC susceptibility to meltwater injections as recently suggested (Sun et al., Glob. Planet. Change, 2021; Barker & Knorr, Nat. Commun., 2021).   

SummaryThe possible responses of ecosystem processes to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change are illustrated using six dynamic global vegetation models that explicitly represent the interactions of ecosystem carbon and water exchanges with vegetation dynamics. The models are driven by the IPCC IS92a scenario of rising CO2 (Wigley et al. 1991), and by climate changes resulting from effective CO2 concentrations corresponding to IS92a, simulated by the coupled ocean atmosphere model HadCM2‐SUL. Simulations with changing CO2 alone show a widely distributed terrestrial carbon sink of 1.4–3.8 Pg C y−1 during the 1990s, rising to 3.7–8.6 Pg C y−1 a century later. Simulations including climate change show a reduced sink both today (0.6–3.0 Pg C y−1) and a century later (0.3–6.6 Pg C y−1) as a result of the impacts of climate change on NEP of tropical and southern hemisphere ecosystems. In all models, the rate of increase of NEP begins to level off around 2030 as a consequence of the ‘diminishing return’ of physiological CO2 effects at high CO2 concentrations. Four out of the six models show a further, climate‐induced decline in NEP resulting from increased heterotrophic respiration and declining tropical NPP after 2050. Changes in vegetation structure influence the magnitude and spatial pattern of the carbon sink and, in combination with changing climate, also freshwater availability (runoff). It is shown that these changes, once set in motion, would continue to evolve for at least a century even if atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate could be instantaneously stabilized. The results should be considered illustrative in the sense that the choice of CO2 concentration scenario was arbitrary and only one climate model scenario was used. However, the results serve to indicate a range of possible biospheric responses to CO2 and climate change. They reveal major uncertainties about the response of NEP to climate change resulting, primarily, from differences in the way that modelled global NPP responds to a changing climate. The simulations illustrate, however, that the magnitude of possible biospheric influences on the carbon balance requires that this factor is taken into account for future scenarios of atmospheric CO2 and climate change.

Headspace gas composition of meat stored in modified atmosphere packaging (MAP) undergoes dynamic changes as a result of packaging film permeability, postmortem metabolic activity, CO2 absorption in water and lipid, and bacteria growth and respiration. A combined analytical and experimental method was developed to investigate CO2 absorption by packaged fresh meat in a gas‐impermeable environment and during isothermal storage. the ideal gas law was used as a theoretical basis and a gas‐impermeable and constant‐volume chamber was constructed to evaluate the theoretical derivation. Changes in headspace pressure caused by dynamic interactions between beef and MAP atmospheres were monitored to predict concentration changes of CO2 within the chamber. the proposed methodology for measuring CO2 concentration changes was confirmed by gas analysis and proved valid for prediction of headspace CO2 concentration changes in MAP gas‐impermeable systems within the range of initial gas composition 20% to 100% CO2 balanced with N2, at temperatures ranging from 3 to 13C, and an initial headspace pressure of 155 kPa.

The composition of air in bubbles of ice reveals important information on the composition of the atmosphere at the time at which the ice was formed. The enclosed air has essentially an atmospheric composition if the ice formation occurred by dry sintering of snow and firn at low temperatures. The history of atmospheric CO2concentration is of special interest due to its present increase and its climatic implications. Currently, CO2analysis of air extracted from ice cores seems the best and most direct method of determining the natural CO2concentration before 1950 and possible pre-industrial variations. Analyses of ice samples representing the past 40 ka show that there were significant changes in concentration of atmospheric CO2at the end, and probably during part, of the last glaciation. δ13C measurements on CO2extracted from ice cores can indicate possible mechanisms causing these changes in the concentration of atmospheric CO2.

Review of CO2 sequestration mechanism in saline aquifers

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) have commonly been used to understand the relationship between the economy, the earth’s climate system and climate impacts. We compare the IPCC simulations of CO2 concentration, radiative forcing, and global mean temperature changes associated with five SRES ‘marker’ emissions scenarios with the responses of three IAMs—DICE, FUND and PAGE—to these same emission scenarios. We also compare differences in simulated temperature increase resulting from moving from a high to a low emissions scenario. These IAMs offer a range of climate outcomes, some of which are inconsistent with those of IPCC, due to differing treatments of the carbon cycle and of the temperature response to radiative forcing. In particular, in FUND temperatures up until 2100 are relatively similar for the four emissions scenarios, and temperature reductions upon switching to lower emissions scenarios are small. PAGE incorporates strong carbon cycle feedbacks, leading to higher CO2 concentrations in the twenty-second century than other models. Such IAMs are frequently applied to determine ‘optimal’ climate policy in a cost–benefit approach. Models such as FUND which show smaller temperature responses to reducing emissions than IPCC simulations on comparable timescales will underestimate the benefits of emission reductions and hence the calculated ‘optimal’ level of investment in mitigation.

A possible scenario for the end of the 21st century is that the atmospheric CO2 concentration will be in the range of 510-760 μL L-1 and that the mean global temperature will be 1.5-4.5ºC higher. Further, there may be greater incidences of extreme climatic events, which together with the CO2 and temperature changes will influence development, growth and grain yield of cereals such as rice and wheat. For these C3 plants, the driving force for the growth response to elevated CO2 is higher leaf CO2 assimilation rates (A). However, the response of A to CO2 depends on temperature with maximum absolute increases occuring at temperatures which do not cause flower abortion, while negligible increases are observed at low temperatures. At high temperatures, where A is reduced because of partial inactivation of photosynthetic enzymes, the increase in A due to CO2 enrichment is still observed. Other factors, such as changes in shoot water relations or hormone concentrations, may influence growth at elevated CO2 concentrations. Wheat and rice development is accelerated by high temperature and consequently grain yield is reduced because there is less time for radiation to be intercepted during the vegetative phase. Although high CO2 also accelerates development in rice and, to a lesser extent in wheat, the extra carbohydrate produced by increases in A results in at least a 40% increase in grain yield at temperatures which do not cause flower abortion. This is due mainly to increased tiller numbers rather than increases in the number or weight of individual grains. However, the yield enhancement due to high CO2 will not necessarily compensate for decreases in yield caused by accelerated development at high temperatures. As predicted by the response of A to high CO2, the relative increase in yield, due to rising CO2 concentrations, is smaller at lower temperatures. Elevated atmospheric CO2 may improve the tolerance of plants to heat-induced drought stress by facilitating the maintenance of cell volume and photosynthetic function in the leaves. Increased carbohydrate storage in the stems may also be an advantage during grain filling if the flag leaves senesce prematurely. However, it is unlikely that the effect of very high temperatures on flower abortion will be ameliorated by high CO2. For bread making, the quality of flour produced from grain developed at high temperatures is poorer. High CO2 may also have an effect through a reduction in the protein content of wheat grain. For rice, the amylose content of the grain, a major determinant of cooking quality is increased under elevated CO2.

Abstract. Understanding how fire regimes change over time is of major importance for understanding their future impact on the Earth system, including society. Large differences in simulated burned area between fire models show that there is substantial uncertainty associated with modelling global change impacts on fire regimes. We draw here on sensitivity simulations made by seven global dynamic vegetation models participating in the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) to understand how differences in models translate into differences in fire regime projections. The sensitivity experiments isolate the impact of the individual drivers on simulated burned area, which are prescribed in the simulations. Specifically these drivers are atmospheric CO2 concentration, population density, land-use change, lightning and climate. The seven models capture spatial patterns in burned area. However, they show considerable differences in the burned area trends since 1921. We analyse the trajectories of differences between the sensitivity and reference simulation to improve our understanding of what drives the global trends in burned area. Where it is possible, we link the inter-model differences to model assumptions. Overall, these analyses reveal that the largest uncertainties in simulating global historical burned area are related to the representation of anthropogenic ignitions and suppression and effects of land use on vegetation and fire. In line with previous studies this highlights the need to improve our understanding and model representation of the relationship between human activities and fire to improve our abilities to model fire within Earth system model applications. Only two models show a strong response to atmospheric CO2 concentration. The effects of changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration on fire are complex and quantitative information of how fuel loads and how flammability changes due to this factor is missing. The response to lightning on global scale is low. The response of burned area to climate is spatially heterogeneous and has a strong inter-annual variation. Climate is therefore likely more important than the other factors for short-term variations and extremes in burned area. This study provides a basis to understand the uncertainties in global fire modelling. Both improvements in process understanding and observational constraints reduce uncertainties in modelling burned area trends.

Abstract. The proportionality between global mean temperature and cumulative emissions of CO2 predicted in Earth system models (ESMs) is the foundation of carbon budgeting frameworks. Deviations from this behavior could impact estimates of required net-zero timings and negative emissions requirements to meet the Paris Agreement climate targets. However, existing ESM diagnostic experiments do not allow for direct estimation of these deviations as a function of defined emissions pathways. Here, we perform a set of climate model diagnostic experiments for the assessment of transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE), the Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC), and climate reversibility metrics in an emissions-driven framework. The emissions-driven experiments provide consistent independent variables simplifying simulation, analysis and interpretation, with emissions rates more comparable to recent levels than existing protocols using model-specific compatible emissions from the CMIP DECK 1pctCO2 experiment, where emissions rates tend to increase during the experiment, such that at the time of CO2 doubling in year 70, emissions are much greater than present-day values. A base experiment, “esm-flat10”, has constant emissions of CO2 of 10 GtC per year (near-present-day values), and initial results show that the TCRE estimated in this experiment is about 0.1 K less than that obtained using 1pctCO2. A subset of ESMs exhibit land carbon sinks that saturate during this experiment. A branch experiment, esm-flat10-zec, illustrates that both positive and negative ZEC effects are less pronounced under esm-flat10 than under 1pctCO2 – the magnitude of ZEC50 in ESMs is, on average, reduced by 30 % compared with 1pctCO2 branch experiments. A final experiment, esm-flat10-cdr, assesses climate reversibility under negative emissions, where we find that peak warming may occur before or after net zero and that the asymmetry in temperature at a given level of cumulative emissions between the positive and negative emissions phases is well described by ZEC in most models. Further, we find that existing probabilistic simple climate model (SCM) ensembles tend to overestimate temperature reversibility compared with ESMs, highlighting the need for additional constraints. We propose a set of climate diagnostic indicators to quantify various aspects of climate reversibility. These experiments were suggested as potential candidates in CMIP7 and have since been adopted as “fast track” simulations.

In this sensitivity study, we have applied the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model ((TEM) version 4.1) to examine the responses of terrestrial ecosystems to transient changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate in the 21st century at the scales of the globe, biomes, latitudinal gradient, and economic regions. Three predictions of transient change in climate and atmospheric CO2 concentration in the 21st century from the Integrated Global System Model developed at Massachusetts Institute of Technology were used. The TEM estimates a global annual net ecosystem production (NEP) of about 0.8 Pg C yr−1 in 1990. Global annual NEP in 2100 increases by about 2.6 Pg C yr−1 for the HHL (higher CO2 emissions and temperature increases), 1.8 Pg C yr−1 for the RRR (reference CO2 emissions and temperature increases), and 0.5 Pg C yr−1 for the LLH (lower CO2 emissions and temperature increases) climate change predictions. The boreal and tropical evergreen forests account for a large portion of the increased global annual NEP. Latitudinal distribution of total annual NEP along 0.5°‐resolution latitudinal bands shifts significantly from the tropics to the northern middle and high latitudes over time. The potential CO2 uptake over the period of 1990–2100 differs substantially among the 12 economic regions of the world. As we used potential mature natural vegetation in the global extrapolation of TEM, these NEP estimates represent the potential CO2 uptake or the upper bound for long‐term carbon sequestration by the terrestrial biosphere. This sensitivity study shows that the temporal dynamics and spatial distribution of carbon, nitrogen, and water fluxes of terrestrial ecosystems are very sensitive to the magnitudes and paths of transient changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate in the 21st century.