Short term load forecasting algorithm of substation bus based on multi source data characteristics

Load forecasting is of great significance for the early planning of integrated energy system. However, for new buildings and old buildings without historical data, there is no historical load data, and the traditional load forecasting model is no longer applicable. Therefore, for this kind of buildings, based on load correlation analysis, this paper proposes a long-term load forecasting model based on feature fusion and LightGBM. After effective feature analysis of different types of features, this paper uses the method of feature fusion to construct the final input, and with the learning advantage of LightGBM model for regression problem. It uses histogram algorithm to discretize the data, speeds up the calculation, and uses gradient unilateral sampling algorithm to reduce the number of training samples in iteration and avoid over-fitting. We execute an experimental analysis on the load simulation dataset of 205 typical buildings, and finally evaluate the accuracy of the model through the parameters such as statistical metrics MSE, MAE and correlations coefficient. The experiment results show that compared with other algorithms, the proposed method has higher accuracy and faster speed, which is of great significance for the load forecasting of new and old buildings without historical data.

This research paper investigates the application of artificial neural networks (ANNs) and fuzzy logic methods for short-term load forecasting in the Western Libyan Electric Network. Historical hourly load data collected during the year 2023 by the General Electricity Company of Libya (GECOL). The study aims to develop accurate and reliable load forecasting models to support efficient grid operation and resource planning. Historical load data and meteorological variables are utilized to train and evaluate the forecasting models. The performance of the ANNs and fuzzy logic methods is compared, and the suitability of each approach for load forecasting in the Western Libyan Electric Network is assessed. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of both ANNs and fuzzy logic methods in short-term load forecasting, providing valuable insights for electricity providers and policymakers in the region. Keywords: neural' networks, fuzzy logic, load forecasting

Load forecasting (LF) is an essential factor in power system management. LF helps the utility maximize the utilization of power-generating plants and schedule them both reliably and economically. In this paper, a novel and hybrid forecasting method is proposed, combining a long short-term memory network (LSTM) and neural prophet (NP) through an artificial neural network. The paper aims to predict electric load for different time horizons with improved accuracy as well as consistency. The proposed model uses historical load data, weather data, and statistical features obtained from the historical data. Multiple case studies have been conducted with two different real-time data sets on three different types of load forecasting. The hybrid model is later compared with a few established methods of load forecasting found in the literature with different performance metrics: mean average percentage error (MAPE), root mean square error (RMSE), sum of square error (SSE), and regression coefficient (R). Moreover, a guideline with various attributes is provided for different types of load forecasting considering the applications of the proposed model. The results and comparisons from our test cases showed that the proposed hybrid model improved the forecasting accuracy for three different types of load forecasting over other forecasting techniques.

The accurate prediction of power system load is extremely important for the operation of the power market and the safe operation of the power grid. In order to improve the accuracy of short-term load forecasting of power systems, a combination model based on long short term memory network (LSTM) and light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM) is proposed. The experiment first decomposes historical load data by EMD, uses historical weather data and load data decomposed by EMD to establish LSTM prediction model and LightGBM prediction model respectively, and then these two predicted values are linearly combined to obtain the final predicted value. The electrical load data of the 2016 Electrician Mathematical Contest in Modeling is used as an example to verify. The experimental results show that the LSTM-LightGBM combined model has higher forecasting accuracy and application prospects for power load forecasting than traditional load forecasting methods and standard LSTM and LightGBM load forecasting methods.

A short-term load forecasting model based on mixup and transfer learning

Smart distribution network gathers massive load data with SCADA system. Bus load forecasting needs to increase the process speed while assuring the forecasting accuracy, to meet the real-time requirements. This paper proposed a fast bus load forecasting method for smart distribution system. This method utilizes the historical load and temperature data to establish a forecasting model, which derived the reference load data of the forecasting day. With temperature data of the forecasting day and the historical data, it is deduced the load correction of the forecasting day to realize online load forecasting, which increases the forecasting speed. By the instance analysis, the speediness and accuracy of the proposed method is verified.

Short-term load forecasting plays a vital role for the power system’s safe operation and production arrangements. This paper regards electric load forecasting as a nonlinear time series prediction problem, and establishes the electric load autoregressive prediction model (ARX Model) based on historical load data, approaching ARX model parameters with RBF neural network, estimating model parameters with using a Structured Nonlinear Parameters Optimization Method (SNPOM), proposing cycle prediction method for short-term electric load forecasting. Experimental results show that the method has higher prediction accuracy for short-term electric load forecasting. Keywords: Short-term load forecasting; time series; RBF-ARX model; cycle forecasting; structured nonlinear parameter optimization method

This paper presented a hybrid neural network model to integrate information entropy theory and ant colony clustering for load forecasting. As short-term load forecasting is a complex problem with multifactor in power system, if all these factors are used as inputs of neural network, it will not only result in complicated network structure, but also long learning time and inaccurate prediction. First, information entropy theory is used to select relevant ones from all load influential factors, the results are used as inputs of neural network. It can reduce irrelevant load influential factors and the input variables of the input layer for neural network. Next, considering the features of power load and reduced influential factors, using ant colony clustering method, the practical historical load data within one year is divided into several groups. A separate module based on neural networks models each group. Then, the typical samples in each clustered group were selected as the training set for the separate improved Elman neural network which is a kind of globally feed forward locally recurrent network model with distinguished dynamical characteristics. According to the procedures, the reduced input variables and the typical training samples for each neural network can be gotten. Thus the neural network forecasting model based on information entropy and ant colony clustering can be constructed which can effectively reduce the training time and improve convergent speed. During the forecasting process, pattern recognizing is employed to activate the corresponding module for hourly load forecasting. The presented model was tested using Hebei Province daily load data, and the satisfactory results were obtained.

This study examines the application of machine learning models to week-ahead load forecasting for power system short-term planning applications. Electrical energy consumption has increased significantly over the last two decades because of rising living standards, economic development, and population growth. For power system planners and operators, short-term load forecasting is necessary to make economic, safe, reliable, and operational planning decisions and to account for variations in energy demand based on the seasonal period. These models are essential for the operation of utilities to meet system short-term adequacy assessment studies. With uncertainties in national, regional, and local economic growth, along with seasonal variability in energy consumption patterns and conservation habits of electricity consumers, utilities may face new challenges in forecasting short-term load demand. This work considers five machine learning models for week-ahead hourly load forecasting based on historical actual load data and expected meteorological features such as humidity, pressure, cloud cover, temperature, and wind speed. The performances of the models are evaluated using real-world data provided on the IEEE DataPort for Electricity Demand Forecasting. The accuracies are assessed using the root mean square error (RMSE) and coefficient of determination (R <sup xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">2</sup> ) metrics. The results show that the Nonlinear autoregressive neural network with exogenous input (NARX) model performs well in predicting week-ahead load demand with an R <sup xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">2</sup> value of 0.99 on the test set and can accommodate seasonal trends in energy consumption.

Short-term load forecasting is an essential instrument in power system planning, operation & control. Many operating decisions are based on load forecasts, such as dispatch scheduling of generating capacity, reliability analysis & maintenance planning for the generators. This paper discusses significant role of artificial intelligence (AI) in short-term load forecasting (STLF), that is, the one hour-ahead forecast of the power system load. A new artificial neural network (ANN) has been designed to compute the forecasted load. Historical electricity load data has been used in the modeling of ANN. The ANN model is trained on hourly data from PJM Electricity Market & UPPCL and tested on out-of-sample data. Simulation results obtained have shown that one hour-ahead forecasts of load using proposed ANN is very accurate with very less error.

The present study proposes a short-term load forecasting method based on weighted grey relational degree and improved support vector machines with the artificial bee colony algorithm (ABC-SVM). The entropy weight method was employed to obtain the weight of load-related physical information, and the historical and forecast load data selected based on the weighted grey relational degree were input into the support vector machine (SVM) to build a forecasting model. Meanwhile, the SVM parameters were optimized by the improved artificial bee colony algorithm before the model was used to perform load forecasting. The experimental results show that the proposed method could effectively improve the accuracy of the forecasting model and simplify the calculation, thus having research and practical value.

The evolution of conventional power systems into smart grids demands intelligent and efficient energy management solutions. Accurate load forecasting is essential for optimal generation scheduling, demand-side management, and system reliability. However, traditional methods often fail to capture the nonlinear and time-varying nature of electrical loads. This work proposes a machine learning–based approach for local load forecasting and grid stability enhancement. Techniques such as Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Support Vector Machines (SVM) are utilized to analyze historical load and weather data for improved prediction accuracy. In addition, a predictive control strategy is implemented to maintain system stability by mitigating voltage fluctuations, frequency deviations, and load imbalances. The proposed model dynamically adjusts control actions such as demand response and load shedding. Simulation results demonstrate reduced forecasting errors (MAE, RMSE) and improved voltage and frequency regulation, ensuring enhanced reliability, efficiency, and stable operation of modern smart grid systems. Keywords: Smart Grid; Machine Learning; Load Forecasting; Grid Stability; Predictive Control.

Bus load forecasting plays an important role in terms of the safety of power grid dispatching and operation and the accuracy of online analysis and decision-making. In order to improve accuracy of bus load forecasting, this paper proposes an ultra-short-term load forecasting method based on multi-type data and hybrid model. Under the background of power big data, the multi-type data such as historical bus load data, date information and weather information are firstly taken as the input features of the prediction model, which is established based on the fusion of back propagation (BP-ANN) neural network and convolutional neural network(CNN). BP-ANN is used to extract the feature vectors of numeric type and category type data, which is concatenated with feature vectors extracted by CNN from image type data. The combined features are fed to a fully connected multilayer Neural Network to predict the bus load. In this paper, the historical data of active power load at the high voltage side of a 220kV substation in a certain area of China and the corresponding weather information are used for example analysis. The analysis of experimental results shows that the proposed method can make full use of the characteristics of multi-source data to conduct ultra-short-term bus load prediction, and it has higher load prediction accuracy compared to the single model prediction of BP-ANN and CNN.

In order to realize the modernization of power grid management, mid-term power load forecasting has become an important research in power dispatching. Accurate mid-term load forecasting is of great significance to future power system dispatching and safe operation, and is a prerequisite for safe and economical operation of power systems. Based on error back propagation (BP) neural network has the advantages of generalization ability, self-learning ability and self-adapting ability, and simple local calculation, this paper proposes to use the BP neural network model to forecast the power load in the alpine region. Firstly, the historical load data and meteorological data of a certain area in Harbin are studied, analyzed and screened, and they are used as the input data of the network, a mid-term load forecasting model based on BP neural network is established, and then the model is simulated and improved through simulation to predict changes in the future development of electric load demand. The prediction data results and images show that the medium-term load prediction accuracy and training speed based on the BP neural network can reach the target, and the performance is good.

The accuracy of power load forecasting is sensitive to various characteristic factors. For the massive historical load data, how to mine the correlation between different attributes in the characteristic data set is the key to improve the accuracy of load forecasting. In this paper, a load forecasting method based on Bi-LSTM network considering data feature analysis is proposed. Firstly, the attribute correlation feature analysis of massive historical load data is realized by using random forest algorithm, and the features with strong correlation with load are selected as the input of the model; Secondly, Bi-LSTM network with good data fitting accuracy is used for load forecasting modeling. Finally, the actual load data of a city is used for simulation analysis. The simulation results show that this method has more advantages in accuracy than traditional forecasting methods, which verifies the effectiveness and practicability of this method.KeywordsMultidimensional characteristicsLoad forecastingRandom forestBi-LSTMFeature selection