- Research Article
- 10.2139/ssrn.2735950
The Local Impact of Global Flows on U.S. Firm-Level Stock Returns
- Nov 21, 2016
- SSRN Electronic Journal
- Matthew M Wynter
The Local Impact of Global Flows on U.S. Firm-Level Stock Returns
ABSTRACT Overstayers—travellers entering a country with a valid visa but staying beyond the initially authorised period—are a blind spot of migration research. Past studies claim that overstaying is indeed the main gateway to irregular migration in Europe, but few estimates exist. This paper explores three new methods to estimate the inflows of overstayers. We concentrate on the Schengen area as destination, given its relevance in global migration flows, and on non‐European countries as origins, since for travellers from these countries commercial flights are the most likely transportation mode to Europe. Our methods rely on aggregate information on incoming and departing passengers from all airports in the Schengen Area, and on Facebook users' mobility data. In the first method, we compute ‘net air travel flows’ as the difference between incoming and outgoing passengers; we then deduce net regular migration (using data from Eurostat and the QuantMig project) from ‘net air travel flows’ to obtain ‘unaccounted net flows’, which we hold to equate approximately to newly incoming overstayers with short‐stay visas for 2019. In the second method, building on the first estimate, we employ the logic of gravity models to project estimates for later years. In the third method, we build on the intuitions of the first method but use net migration figures from data on Facebook users' cross‐border movements. Substantively, the results of the different methods converge, indicating around 450,000 new overstayers who entered the whole of the Schengen Area in 2019 with short‐stay visas. Analyses for the following years obtained with the second and third method match and are in line with changes in travel policies during the COVID‐19 pandemic (2020 and 2021), suggesting a significant reduction in the number of overstayers for those years and an uptick for the years 2022–2023. By uncovering the size and scope of the overstaying population we shed light on a highly contested issue in the public debate and ultimately contribute to raise awareness on the constructed nature of the ‘regular’ versus ‘irregular’ framing of migration.
The Local Impact of Global Flows on U.S. Firm-Level Stock Returns
The Local Impact of Global Flows on U.S. Firm-Level Stock Returns
Looking Into Policy Change: How the Italian Asylum Regime Came of Age
The chapter illustrates how Italy’s frames, strategies and practices concerning asylum have changed over the last three decades, and how the country has passed from what I have called, using a biological metaphor, infancy to adulthood. For a long time, European pressure and norms over asylum affected Italian legislation without significantly impacting policy frames and actual practices: Italy perceived itself as a transit country and, as a consequence, allowed and even fostered secondary movements of asylum seekers towards other countries and kept its asylum system underdeveloped. Since 2011, those solutions started failing because of the modifications in the social phenomenon of migration (the sharp increase of unplanned inflows) and in the institutional settings where negotiations among Member States occur (the full inclusion of Italy into the Schengen Area and the CEAS). Those failures resulted in a policy change so that the Italian asylum regime came of age: the country adopted a new policy frame by acknowledging itself as a destination country for asylum seekers, overcame ad hoc emergency solutions, and joined the Northern European countries’ call for more responsibility-sharing. However, Italy’s weak political-institutional capacity has slowed down the consolidation of the new practices. At the same time, it appears as largely responsible for the gaps with older destination countries in the management of asylum whereas divergence in policy frames and goals has lost relevance.
Read moreThe political dimension of globalization
This chapter focuses on political globalization, which is the intensification and expansion of political interrelations across the globe. Political globalization raises issues such as the principle of state sovereignty, and the prospects for regional and global governance, demographics, and global migration flows. The chapter explains the structure of global governance that resembles an eclectic network of interrelated power centres like national and international private-sector associations. It considers David Held’s theory wherein political globalization is moving in the direction of cosmopolitan democracy. However, global governance sceptics raised apprehension that the proponents of cosmopolitan democracy have not considered in sufficient detail its cultural feasibility.
Read more7.2-O2Keeping healthy and accessing primary and preventive health services in Glasgow: the experiences of refugees and asylum seekers from Sub Saharan Africa
Background and aims: Recent decades have seen material shifts in global migration flows. Migrants now come to the UK for an increasing number of reasons and from an increasing number of countries. This presents a challenge for health services that must provide care to individuals with a broad range of needs. In particular, there is concern that asylum seekers and refugees (ASRs) are at heightened risk of poor wellbeing and of receiving suboptimal healthcare. Concurrent with these shifts in migration, increasing attention is being paid to noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), which are now the most significant drivers of morbidity and mortality in most regions of the world. In the UK, the burden of NCDs is not evenly distributed, with inequalities related to ethnicity and socioeconomic status shaping an individual’s risk of ill health. Little is known, however, about how diverse migrant groups, including ASRs, conceptualise health and respond to health prevention messaging. Against this backdrop, this thesis aims to understand the health-related experiences of one such group – asylum seekers and refugees (ASRs) from Sub Saharan Africa living in Glasgow Scotland. Specifically, it explores: a) perceptions of health, wellbeing, and illness causation, b) experiences of accessing primary and preventive healthcare, and c) the factors influencing these perceptions and experiences. It also seeks to elucidate professional perspectives on ASR health. Methods: To gain an in depth understanding of ASR health perceptions and experiences, as well as professional perspectives, a focused ethnography was undertaken. This approach utilised four qualitative methods: community engagement, participatory focus groups, semistructured interviews, and go- along interviews. In total 12 primary care and public health professionals were interviewed, and 27 ASRs took part in either a focus group, an interview, or both. The thesis took a theoretically informed approach, seeking to determine whether and how two theories – ‘candidacy’ (Dixon-Woods et al 2005) and ‘structural vulnerability’ (Quesada et al 2011) – might deepen our understanding of ASR health. Results: Candidacy enhanced understanding of how ASRs identified and responded to messages about ‘healthy lifestyles’. ASR participants considered keeping healthy to be an individual responsibility, with diet and exercise highlighted as especially important. At the same time, however, perceptions and experiences of health and wellbeing were shaped by a number of structural influences, which limited the capacity of ASRs to engage in health practices. Therefore, while ASRs considered health to be an individual choice in theory, they did not necessarily feel they had the ability to be healthy in practice. The theory of structural vulnerability proved useful in identifying the wider structural determinants that impacted on an individual’s capacity to respond. There were several important structural influences, including poverty, racism, discrimination, and language barriers. The greatest negative influence, however, and one that compounded all the others, was the asylum process. This diminished individuals’ capacity to identify as candidates for prevention messages, engage in preventive health practices, and/ or access care in an optimal fashion. Conclusions: Efforts to engage ASRs in preventive health programmes and practices must take into account the ways in which the immigration and asylum system acts as a determinant of health, affecting both what it means to be healthy and what capacity individuals have to engage. The NHS, together with non statutory bodies, has a role to play in mitigating some of the vulnerabilities to which ASRs are subject.
Read moreTowards an improved adult learning monitoring framework. Revisiting the available data and indicators
Adult education is recognised as an essential driver of economic growth and social development within the European Union and has been a political priority for nearly two decades. It is deemed to play a pivotal role to create better jobs in Europe, improve quality of life and promote individual development, personal fulfillment and active citizenship. \nA number of Commission initiatives in the recent past have underscored the importance of adult learning. In particular, the European Pillar of Social Rights, proclaimed and signed by the Council of the EU, the European Parliament and the Commission during the Gothenburg Social Summit for fair jobs and growth announced the right to quality and inclusive education, training, and life-long learning as its very first principle. In addition, as part of the Education and Training 2020 (ET2020) strategy, EU Member States have agreed on a common target to increase participation in adult learning in the EU. \nFostering adult learning is now more important than ever because of three concurrent factors: technological change, population ageing and global migration flows. \nTechnological change, and in particular automation and digitisation, affecting the world of work by altering or erasing certain tasks, often the most repetitive and standardised, and creating new ones. Adult and learning is essential to ensure that workers, and especially older ones, are equipped with the necessary skills throughout their lifetime, so that they can thrive in a constantly changing labour market.\nSimilarly, in the context of population ageing, adult learning and continuing education become crucial as they can provide older people with the capabilities they need to stay in work well into their sixties and seventies.\nFinally, adult learning has a central role to play in a context of international migration, since it can be a tool to support the linguistic, social and cultural integration of immigrants. . \nThe "Education and Training 2020" (ET 2020) strategic framework is a crucial tool to monitor participation in adult learning; it set the average participation rate in adult learning at 15% of the population aged 25-64 by 2020. Yet, so far, only a few Member States have reached the benchmark. Furthermore, to underpin the adult learning target and support its monitoring within the European Semester, in 2018 Member States approved a comprehensive framework, developed by the Commission, for benchmarking adult skills and adult learning systems in the EU,. \nThis report aims to reflect on the performance of the existing ET 2020 benchmark on adult participation in learning, by comparing cross-country patterns of participation using different sources of data. In particular, this report provides empirical evidence on participation in adult learning, with a specific focus on different subgroups, such as older people or others belonging to groups that are traditionally excluded from learning, which are identified as a priority by the European Council’s “Renewed European Agenda for Adult Learning” (EEAL). The report also discusses the strengths and weaknesses of the current data source used to create the indicators, i.e. the EU Labour Force Survey (EU-LFS) and extended coverage of adult learning in the EU-LFS as of 2022, enabling improved indicators, and further introduces the possibility to create other indicators based on different, complementary data sources, such as the Adult Education Survey (AES), the Continuing Vocational Training Survey (CVTS), the OECD Survey on Adult Skills (PIAAC), and others.
Read moreExploring North-to-South immigrant family business: a resource-based view theoretical framework
Purpose This article conceptualizes immigrant family businesses (IFBs) established by families migrating from the Global North to the Global South, an underexplored phenomenon in both immigrant entrepreneurship and family business research. The study addresses the question: How do North-to-South (NtS) IFBs mobilize distinct resources to build competitive advantage, and how do they differ from local and South-to-North (StN) IFBs? Drawing from the resource-based view (RBV) and the lens of global embeddedness, the article aims to theorize the unique resource configurations and contextual contingencies shaping the strategic behavior of NtS IFBs. Design/methodology/approach The framework is grounded in the RBV perspective, integrating six categories of strategic resources: human, social, patient, survivability and cross-border capital. The model is analytically illustrated with two real-life NtS IFBs in Latin America and logically formalized with testable propositions. These cases are used to exemplify how resource access and mobilization reflect the entrepreneurial journeys. The theoretical analysis incorporates global embeddedness to capture how supra-national positionalities shape the entrepreneurial process in NtS IFBs. Findings NtS IFBs diverge from necessity-driven StN IFBs by exhibiting long-term orientation, strategic use of symbolic and cross-border capital, and less reliance on ethnic networks. They display unique advantages in mobilizing international human and social capital, but can face challenges in survivability capital and local legitimacy. Cross-border capital emerges as a key differentiator, shaped by the family’s origin-country reputation and mobility privileges. These configurations create distinct forms of “familiness” with implications for both firm performance and societal integration. Research limitations/implications The framework is conceptual and illustrated with exploratory case material; thus, generalizability is limited. Future research should empirically validate the propositions across different NtS contexts and refine the cross-border capital construct. The article advances family business theory by extending the RBV to transnational family dynamics and invites new dialogue on “familiness” in asymmetric global contexts. Practical implications The model offers guidance for practitioners and policymakers seeking to support entrepreneurial families migrating from the Global North to South. It informs family firms on how to leverage underutilized transnational resources and prepare for legitimacy challenges. Policymakers can use the findings to design migration incentives that attract long-term and resource-rich IFBs with local impact potential. Social implications NtS IFBs contribute to inclusive growth in emerging economies by introducing cosmopolitan governance practices, ethical labor norms and sustainable business models. However, they may also face resistance due to historical inequalities, perceived privilege or lack of embeddedness. Finally, it illustrates the relevance of socially conscious integration strategies for international/migrant family business and reflexive governance. Originality/value This study pioneers the theorization of North-to-South IFBs by articulating an extended RBV-based model within a global embeddedness framework. The inclusion of cross-border capital as a resource category offers an alternative conceptual tool to analyze power asymmetries in migrant entrepreneurship. The work contributes to family business theory by contextualizing “familiness” within global migration flows and introducing analytical precision to IFBs' heterogeneity.
Read moreWhat Interventions Impact Migration in the Eastern Neighbourhood and Central Asia
This rapid literature review explores the evidence about what types of interventions impact migration flows in the Eastern Neighbourhood and Central Asia regions (including both overseas development assistance (ODA) and non-ODA programming). The regions are defined as: Eastern Neighbourhood: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine. Central Asia: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. While there is a growing body of research on global migration flows, including relating to the countries within the two regions of focus of this paper, there is little detailed analysis on the impact of interventions on these flows.
Read moreShifts in the global migration order and migration transitions in Europe: the cases of Turkey and Russia
This paper takes as a premise that world economics, world politics and global labour are changing and that whilst migration is a driver as well as a consequence of change it is changing, too. For long, conventional research focussed on north-north and south-north migrations, like across the Atlantic or from agricultural and industrialising to industrial countries. This was in part inspired by the economic and political dominance of the ‘global north’, but also driven by a western and Eurocentric bias. Meanwhile, a long period of economic and political transformations and turbulences gave rise to new economic powers, diversified the sending-receiving country matrix and thus fundamentally changed the determinants for international migration. I elaborate the concepts migration order and migration transition to argue that these are useful for analysing the changes in the configuration of sending, receiving and transit states. To illustrate the argument, this article takes Russia and Turkey and developments from the early 2000s as case studies and analyses the shifts in the regional and global migration flows.
Read moreFemale Migrant Domestic Workers in Southern Europe and the Levant: Towards an Expanded Mediterranean Model?
This paper examines the global and structural forces facilitating the movement of female migrant domestic workers (FMDWs) from developing regions to southern Europe and the Levant. At the intersection of welfare state, childcare, gender and migration regimes, we can identify a cross-Mediterranean domestic worker model. It has important implications for the magnitude, composition (in terms of national background and live-in vs. live-out work), legal status and mobilization of the region's FMDWs. Their roles in global migration flows and national labour markets, as explained in the existing literature, are examined, followed by case comparison of Spain, Greece, Cyprus, Israel, Lebanon and Jordan.
Read moreFACEBOOK: FROM PERSONAL MEDIUM TO MASS MEDIUM – AND BACK AGAIN? - THE USE OF FACEBOOK ACROSS AGE GROUPS 2015-19
This paper investigates how different age groups perceive Facebook as a personal medium and a mass medium, respectively, based on a time series analysis of Danish Internet users. As Denmark for long has been one of the countries with relatively most Facebook users and as Facebook plays an important role in everyday life and the public debate, data from Denmark might give good indications of Facebook’s development in general. This paper is based on five consecutive surveys among Danish Internet users, in 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019 (N between 1200 and 1500 each year). I focus on the use of different parts of Facebook across age groups; the personalized uses like Messenger, private groups and intimate communication, versus “mass media use” like reading news, organizational and political information and taking part in nationwide debates. I also investigate different age groups’ attitudes towards Facebook and whether they see it as a personal or a mass medium. First and foremost, I find notable differences across age groups. I also find that the differences are increasing over the years. In 2015 there were not significant differences in Facebook use across age groups. In 2019 a vast majority of the youngest, aged 18-30, used Facebook dominantly as a personalized medium, highlighting Messenger and private groups as their preferred ways of communication and interaction. The older generations have a much more diversified use, treating Facebook as a personal as well as a mass medium.
Read moreThe effect of international travel on the spread of COVID‐19 in the United States
We examine the relationship between incoming international passengers and COVID‐19 cases and deaths during the pandemic's initial wave in the United States. We find passengers from Milan, Italy, the location of an early outbreak, were an important source of exposure, increasing the early spread of COVID‐19 in the United States. Cities that received more passengers from Milan during the first quarter of 2020 experienced more COVID‐19 cases during March 2020 than cities receiving fewer passengers from Milan. Concurrently, cities that received more passengers from China or Rome (the latter not experiencing a major outbreak until later in 2020), did not experience increased cases. These results show passengers from at least one foreign epicenter were an important source of exposure that increased COVID‐19 spread in the United States. Given Milan was a secondary hotspot, our results also illustrate the importance of a holistic view of international pandemic hotspots when considering corresponding travel policy.
Read moreSwelling and gas release in oxide fuels during fast temperature transients
Swelling and gas release in oxide fuels during fast temperature transients
E-WOM & Purchase Intention towards Mobile Data Packages among Facebook users: The Mediating Effect of Brand Image
Facebook is undoubtedly the leading social networking service in Sri Lanka, which comprises approximately 7.9 million users by creating a massive platform to advertise and brand engagement. Therefore, it has become an essential tool for eWOM, which is crucial for Marketers to understand to leverage on social media. The Mobile Telecommunication industry is a competitive and technologically advanced sector in Sri Lanka, sized at 30.41Mn mobile connections rapidly ignite Social Networking Sites based interactions; hence, eWOM behaviour is pivotal to examine as a digital communicational tool and a reality. Accordingly, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of eWOM on Purchase Intention as millions of consumers are now exposed to digital platforms and how impactful amidst the brand image among the Facebook users of Sri Lanka. Even though many scholars studied this issue in different contexts and very little research was done in Sri Lanka. The significance of this research instrumentalized to fill this gap and open a scholarly discussion. A survey conducted for data collection was instrumentalized via a 5-point Likert scale questionnaire among 267 respondents. The findings revealed a positive relationship between eWOM and Purchase Intention for Mobile data packages in the context of Sri Lankan Facebook users & it was positively strengthened by Brand Image. Furthermore, this outcome could be used as base research to study eWOM on other platforms and give new knowledge to the academic & business world.
Read moreIncorporating Migration Into an Age-Structured Population Model With Variable Mortality Rate
We modify the McKendrick-von Foerster population model, an age-structured population model, by including a net migration term to model population dynamics when net migration is a significant contributor to population size. Net migration is treated as a continuous function of age and time. We consider the model's mortality rate as both a constant and as a function of age. By allowing the mortality rate to be a function of age, the model better captures more realistic death rates. We then apply this model to the United States population. When the mortality rate is considered as a constant, the model has 3.95% relative error. When the mortality rate is considered as a function of age, it yields a better approximation with a 2.33% relative error. This more accurate model of population dynamics can provide a framework for studying the effect of policy changes and major events on populations and sub-populations.
Read moreESTIMATING DIRECTIONAL MIGRATION FLOWS FROM AGE‐SPECIFIC NET MIGRATION DATA
This paper focuses on a method for indirectly inferring migration flows in the absence of migration data, using two successive counts of birthplace‐specific population stocks. Such stocks have been used in the past to infer patterns of mortality and indeed of net migration. But a workable method for using such population stocks to indirectly estimate directional migration flows still eludes us. Widely observed regularities in the age patterns of outmigration indicate that age‐specific propensities of migration are correlated, and this characteristic suggests an estimation method that directs attention to the age‐specific relative propensities of two or more flows exhibited in the historically preceding time intervals, and then uses those past measures of relative propensities to disaggregate residually estimated net migration flows into the underlying contributions of inmigration and outmigration. A detailed demonstration of the method, applied to US data, is set out in this paper.
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