Simple Linear Cancer Risk Prediction Models With Novel Features Outperform Complex Approaches.

BackgroundThe large amount of heterogeneous data collected in surgical/endoscopic practice calls for data-driven approaches as machine learning (ML) models. The aim of this study was to develop ML models to predict endoscopic sleeve gastroplasty (ESG) efficacy at 12 months defined by total weight loss (TWL) % and excess weight loss (EWL) % achievement. Multicentre data were used to enhance generalizability: evaluate consistency among different center of ESG practice and assess reproducibility of the models and possible clinical application. Models were designed to be dynamic and integrate follow-up clinical data into more accurate predictions, possibly assisting management and decision-making.MethodsML models were developed using data of 404 ESG procedures performed at 12 centers across Europe. Collected data included clinical and demographic variables at the time of ESG and at follow-up. Multicentre/external and single center/internal and temporal validation were performed. Training and evaluation of the models were performed on Python’s scikit-learn library. Performance of models was quantified as receiver operator curve (ROC-AUC), sensitivity, specificity, and calibration plots.ResultsMulticenter external validation: ML models using preoperative data show poor performance. Best performances were reached by linear regression (LR) and support vector machine models for TWL% and EWL%, respectively, (ROC-AUC: TWL% 0.87, EWL% 0.86) with the addition of 6-month follow-up data.Single-center internal validation: Preoperative data only ML models show suboptimal performance. Early, i.e., 3-month follow-up data addition lead to ROC-AUC of 0.79 (random forest classifiers model) and 0.81 (LR models) for TWL% and EWL% achievement prediction, respectively. Single-center temporal validation shows similar results.ConclusionsAlthough preoperative data only may not be sufficient for accurate postoperative predictions, the ability of ML models to adapt and evolve with the patients changes could assist in providing an effective and personalized postoperative care. ML models predictive capacity improvement with follow-up data is encouraging and may become a valuable support in patient management and decision-making.

Data reformation – A novel data processing technique enhancing machine learning applicability for predicting streamflow extremes

Colon cancer is one of the deadliest types of cancer in the United States, with close to 50,000 projected deaths in 2024. The disease requires early diagnosis to optimize chances of survival by enabling timely administration of treatment. To investigate the key non-genetic (NG) factors influencing the onset of colon cancer and evaluate how genetic factors enhance the performance of machine learning (ML) models in predicting incidence, we incorporated polygenic risk scores (PRSs) alongside NG data in ML models to predict 10-year incident risk prediction of colon cancer using data from the UK Biobank. This approach enabled us to assess the added predictive value of PRSs in multi-modal models in estimating the 10-year risk of developing colon cancer over NG data alone. Moreover, our research focused on identifying the most relevant and predictive PRS and validating them using a robust ML framework. To ensure the robustness, we restricted the cohort to White British individuals to minimize ancestry-related heterogeneity. PRSs have proven effective in enhancing disease prediction for conditions such as breast cancer, myocardial infarction, and schizophrenia, reinforcing their relevance in clinical research. Exploring six PRSs, our goal was to minimize false negatives while simultaneously maximizing area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC), in order to improve early detection rates by identifying those who are at risk for colon cancer. This research shows that PRSs can be used to enhance overall predictive ability of ML models in colon cancer research over NG factors alone, bolstering the argument for incorporating PRSs into routine clinical practice. PRSs can also help minimize false negatives, a key feature for disease prediction models, as missed potential diagnoses are life-threatening.

Learning What Makes Catalysts Good

Machine learning (ML) models provide more choices to patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) to more properly manage blood glucose (BG) levels. However, because of numerous types of ML algorithms, choosing an appropriate model is vitally important. In a systematic review and network meta-analysis, this study aimed to comprehensively assess the performance of ML models in predicting BG levels. In addition, we assessed ML models used to detect and predict adverse BG (hypoglycemia) events by calculating pooled estimates of sensitivity and specificity. PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Explore databases were systematically searched for studies on predicting BG levels and predicting or detecting adverse BG events using ML models, from inception to November 2022. Studies that assessed the performance of different ML models in predicting or detecting BG levels or adverse BG events of patients with DM were included. Studies with no derivation or performance metrics of ML models were excluded. The Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies tool was applied to assess the quality of included studies. Primary outcomes were the relative ranking of ML models for predicting BG levels in different prediction horizons (PHs) and pooled estimates of the sensitivity and specificity of ML models in detecting or predicting adverse BG events. In total, 46 eligible studies were included for meta-analysis. Regarding ML models for predicting BG levels, the means of the absolute root mean square error (RMSE) in a PH of 15, 30, 45, and 60 minutes were 18.88 (SD 19.71), 21.40 (SD 12.56), 21.27 (SD 5.17), and 30.01 (SD 7.23) mg/dL, respectively. The neural network model (NNM) showed the highest relative performance in different PHs. Furthermore, the pooled estimates of the positive likelihood ratio and the negative likelihood ratio of ML models were 8.3 (95% CI 5.7-12.0) and 0.31 (95% CI 0.22-0.44), respectively, for predicting hypoglycemia and 2.4 (95% CI 1.6-3.7) and 0.37 (95% CI 0.29-0.46), respectively, for detecting hypoglycemia. Statistically significant high heterogeneity was detected in all subgroups, with different sources of heterogeneity. For predicting precise BG levels, the RMSE increases with a rise in the PH, and the NNM shows the highest relative performance among all the ML models. Meanwhile, current ML models have sufficient ability to predict adverse BG events, while their ability to detect adverse BG events needs to be enhanced. PROSPERO CRD42022375250; https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=375250.

Transfer learning enables prediction of steel corrosion in concrete under natural environments

This study focuses on using various machine learning (ML) models to evaluate the shear behaviors of ultra-high-performance concrete (UHPC) beams reinforced with glass fiber-reinforced polymer (GFRP) bars. The main objective of the study is to predict the shear strength of UHPC beams reinforced with GFRP bars using ML models. We use four different ML models: support vector machine (SVM), artificial neural network (ANN), random forest (R.F.), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). The experimental database used in the study is acquired from various literature sources and comprises 54 test observations with 11 input features. These input features are likely parameters related to the composition, geometry, and properties of the UHPC beams and GFRP bars. To ensure the ML models' generalizability and scalability, random search methods are utilized to tune the hyperparameters of the algorithms. This tuning process helps improve the performance of the models when predicting the shear strength. The study uses the ACI318M-14 and Eurocode 2 standard building codes to predict the shear capacity behavior of GFRP bars-reinforced UHPC I-shaped beams. The ML models' predictions are compared to the results obtained from these building code standards. According to the findings, the XGBoost model demonstrates the highest predictive test performance among the investigated ML models. The study employs the SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) analysis to assess the significance of each input parameter in the ML models' predictive capabilities. A Taylor diagram is used to statistically compare the accuracy of the ML models. This study concludes that ML models, particularly XGBoost, can effectively predict the shear capacity behavior of GFRP bars-reinforced UHPC I-shaped beams.

Systematic literature review of machine learning based software development effort estimation models

Accurate prediction of energy consumption in district heating systems plays an important role in supporting effective and clean energy production and distribution in dense urban areas. Predictive models are needed for flexible and cost-effective operation of energy production and usage, e.g., using peak shaving or load shifting to compensate for heat losses in the pipeline. This helps to avoid exceedance of power plant capacity. The purpose of this study is to automate the process of building machine learning (ML) models to solve a short-term power demand prediction problem. The dataset contains a district heating network’s measured hourly power consumption and ambient temperature for 415 days. In this paper, we propose a hybrid evolutionary-based algorithm, named GA-SHADE, for the simultaneous optimization of ML models and feature selection. The GA-SHADE algorithm is a hybrid algorithm consisting of a Genetic Algorithm (GA) and success-history-based parameter adaptation for differential evolution (SHADE). The results of the numerical experiments show that the proposed GA-SHADE algorithm allows the identification of simplified ML models with good prediction performance in terms of the optimized feature subset and model hyperparameters. The main contributions of the study are (1) using the proposed GA-SHADE, ML models with varying numbers of features and performance are obtained. (2) The proposed GA-SHADE algorithm self-adapts during operation and has only one control parameter. There is no fine-tuning required before execution. (3) Due to the evolutionary nature of the algorithm, it is not sensitive to the number of features and hyperparameters to be optimized in ML models. In conclusion, this study confirms that each optimized ML model uses a unique set and number of features. Out of the six ML models considered, SVR and NN are better candidates and have demonstrated the best performance across several metrics. All numerical experiments were compared against the measurements and proven by the standard statistical tests.

Optimisation and interpretation of machine and deep learning models for improved water quality management in Lake Loktak

Accurate estimation of reference evapotranspiration (ETo) plays a vital role in irrigation and water resource planning. The Penman–Monteith method recommended by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO PM56) is widely used and considered a standard to calculate ETo. However, FAO PM56 cannot be used with limited meteorological variables, so it is compulsory to choose an alternative model for ETo estimation, which requires fewer variables. This study built ten machine learning (ML) models based on multi-function, neural network, and tree-based structure against the FAO PM56 method. For this purpose, time series temperature data on a monthly scale are only used to train ML models. The developed ML models were applied to estimate ETo at different test stations and the obtained results were compared with the FAO PM56 method to verify and validate their performance in ETo estimation for the selected stations. In addition, multiple statistical indicators, including root-mean-square error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (R2), mean absolute error (MAE), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and correlation coefficient (r) were calculated to compare the performance of each ML model on ETo estimation. Among the applied ML models, the ETo tree boost (TB) ML model outperformed the other ML models in estimating ETo in diverse climatic conditions based on statistical indicators (R2, NSE, r, RMSE, and MAE). Moreover, the observed R2, NSE, and r were the highest for the TB ML model, while RMSE and MAE were found to be the lowest at the study sites compared to other applied ML models. Lastly, ETo point data yielded from the TB ML model was used in an interpolation process to create monthly and annual ETo maps. Based on the ETo maps, this study suggests mainly a focus on areas with high ETo values and proper irrigation scheduling of crops to ensure water sustainability.

Aim: The majority of machine learning (ML) models in healthcare are built on retrospective data, much of which is collected without explicit patient consent for use in artificial intelligence (AI) and ML applications. The primary aim of this study was to evaluate whether clinicians and scientific researchers themselves consent to provide their own data for the training of ML models. Materials and Methods: This survey was conducted through an anonymous online survey, utilizing platforms such as Telegram, LinkedIn, and Viber. The target audience comprised specific international groups, primarily Russian, German, and English-speaking, of clinicians and scientific researchers. These participants ranged in their levels of expertise and experience, from beginners to veterans. The survey centered on a singular, pivotal question: “Do You Consent to the Use of Your Biological and Private Data for Training Machine Learning and AI Models?” Respondents had the option to choose from three responses: “Yes” and “No”. Results: The survey was conducted in January 2024. A total of 119 unique and verified individuals participated in the survey. The results revealed that only 50% of respondents (63 persons) expressed consent to provide their own data for the training of ML and AI models. Conclusion: In the development of ML and AI models, particularly open-source ones, it is crucial to ascertain whether participants are willing to provide their private data. While ML algorithms can transform the nature of data, it is important to remember that the primary owner of this data is the individual. Our findings show that in 50% of the cases, even participants from scientific research and clinical backgrounds – individuals typically accountable for ensuring data quality in AI and ML model development – do not consent to the use of their data in AI and ML settings. This highlights the need for more stringent consent processes and ethical considerations in the utilization of personal data in AI and ML research.

This paper fills an important gap in the volatility forecasting literature by comparing a broad suite of machine learning (ML) methods with both linear and nonlinear econometric models using high-frequency realized volatility (RV) data for the S\&P 500. We evaluate ARFIMA, HAR, regime-switching HAR models (THAR, STHAR, MSHAR), and ML methods including Extreme Gradient Boosting, deep feed-forward neural networks, and recurrent networks (BRNN, LSTM, LSTM-A, GRU). Using rolling forecasts from 2006 onward, we find that regime-switching models—particularly THAR and STHAR—consistently outperform ML and linear models, especially when predictors are limited. These models also deliver more accurate risk forecasts and higher realized utility. While ML models capture some nonlinear patterns, they offer no consistent advantage over simpler, interpretable alternatives. Our findings highlight the importance of modeling regime changes through transparent econometric tools, especially in real-world applications where predictor availability is sparse and model interpretability is critical for risk management and portfolio allocation.

Machine learning-based water quality prediction using octennial in-situ Daphnia magna biological early warning system data

PD27-01 DEVELOPMENT OF A MACHINE LEARNING (ML) MODEL TO AUTOMATICALLY AND PRECISELY IDENTIFY KIDNEY STONES FROM URETEROSCOPY VIDEO RECORDINGS