SOTIF-Oriented Safety Validation Framework for Battery Diagnosis

Uncertainty quantification in a resonant nonlinear MEMS structure

Ensemble-based uncertainty quantification and decomposition of probabilistic surrogate models using Bayesian neural networks

Intrinsic and extrinsic techniques for quantification uncertainty of an interpretable GRU deep learning model used to predict atmospheric total suspended particulates (TSP) in Zabol, Iran during the dusty period of 120-days wind

Understanding the sources of, and quantifying the magnitude of, uncertainty can improve decision-making and, thereby, make manufacturing systems more efficient. Achieving this goal requires knowledge in two separate domains: data science and manufacturing. In this paper, we focus on quantifying uncertainty, usually called uncertainty quantification (UQ). More specifically, we propose a methodology to perform UQ automatically using Bayesian networks (BN) constructed from three types of sources: a descriptive system model, physics-based mathematical models, and data. The system model is a high-level model describing the system and its parameters; we develop this model using the Generic Modeling Environment (GME) platform. Physics-based models, which are usually in the form of equations, are assumed to be in a text format. The data is also assumed to be available in a text format. The proposed methodology involves creating a meta-model for the Bayesian network using GME and a syntax representation for the conditional probability tables/ distributions. The actual Bayesian network is an instance model of the Bayesian network meta-model. We describe algorithms for automated BN construction and UQ analysis, which are implemented programmatically using the GME platform. We finally demonstrate the proposed techniques for quantifying the uncertainty in two example systems.

In this work we propose an approach for accelerating Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) analysis in the context of Multifidelity applications. In the presence of complex multiphysics applications, which often require a prohibitive computational cost for each evaluation, mul- tifidelity UQ techniques try to accelerate the convergence of statistics by leveraging the in- formation collected from a larger number of a lower fidelity model realizations. However, at the-state-of-the-art, the performance of virtually all the multifidelity UQ techniques is related to the correlation between the high and low-fidelity models. In this work we proposed to design a multifidelity UQ framework based on the identification of independent important directions for each model. The main idea is that if the responses of each model can be represented in a common space, this latter can be shared to enhance the correlation when the samples are drawn with respect to it instead of the original variables. There are also two main additional advantages that follow from this approach. First, the models might be correlated even if their original parametrizations are chosen independently. Second, if the shared space between mod- els has a lower dimensionality than the original spaces, the UQ analysis might benefit from a dimension reduction standpoint. In this work we designed this general framework and we also tested it on several test problems ranging from analytical functions for verification purpose, up to more challenging application problems as an aero-thermo-structural analysis and a scramjet flow analysis.

<div class="section abstract"><div class="htmlview paragraph">Automotive industry is inclined towards connected, comfortable, environment friendly, efficient and smarter systems. Advanced Driver Assist System (ADAS) technology assist drivers to achieve a safer as well as better ride by automation and improvisation of the vehicular systems. With the advent of ADAS system, there is a significant focus not only in the development of Electronic Control Units (ECUs) and its features to cater to the emerging market but also on the information that could be displayed to meet the functional as well as safety requirements. This ADAS information display ensures timely notification to the driver with unique alerts that can be acoustic or visual. These systems should be tested thoroughly to ensure reliability as failures may impose severe risk on the OEM. Hardware in the loop testing has been largely adopted by industry against manual testing in lieu of the testing constraints imposed by the latter. This paper discusses on the existing test methods for ADAS information display system testing using HIL. It also details on the automation trends adopted and highlights the key challenges associated with the development as well as reusability of the conventional test methods. It discusses an Artificial Intelligence based strategy for automation of cluster objects teaching, evaluation and illustrates the adoption of the same for ADAS HIL testing and brings out the efficiency and benefits achieved by the proposed strategy.</div></div>

<div class="section abstract"><div class="htmlview paragraph">The testing of vision sensor-based Advanced Driver Assistance (ADA) systems and Electronic Control Units (ECUs) is quickly becoming a major requirement in the automotive industry. ADA ECU development teams require a verification and validation (V&V) infrastructure early in the development cycle, and traditional approaches are not suitable for this purpose. This paper proposes the design of an integrated test suite for the functional and real-time testing of ADA algorithms and ECUs. The proposed test suite consists of a hardware bridge built using a Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA), a Universal Serial Bus (USB) 3.0 interface, and a software application running on the Personal Computer (PC). By using an FPGA to build the hardware bridge, we get a compact, real-time, and reconfigurable platform to support the desired test requirements. The USB3.0 interface is specifically proposed to support the high data rates evident in ADA systems based on multiple vision sensor and sensor fusion technologies. The PC-based software application has a modular, extensible, and scalable architecture to support current and future test requirements, as well as several features that improve the end user's productivity. The proposed test suite can be used for: (a) acquisition and storage of sensor data (recording mode), (b) visualization of stored sensor data (replay mode), (c) offline evaluation and improvement of ADA algorithms (functional test mode), (d) online testing of advanced driver assistance system (ADAS) ECUs (real-time test mode). The major contribution of this paper is the design proposal for supporting the real-time test mode for laboratory testing of ADA ECUs, and it concludes with a qualitative discussion of potential enhancements.</div></div>

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the study of the effects of uncertainty on the values of analytical results and the predictions of scientific models. Sources of uncertainty include imprecise knowledge of the exact values of parameters, lack of confidence in the physical models, use of imperfectly calibrated models, and irreducible uncertainties due to physical characteristics. The Air Force Research Laboratory has undertaken the challenge of understanding, developing and analyzing the techniques of UQ as they apply to Laser Beam Control. This paper proposes a simple methodology and simple results with our first attempt of applying UQ as a new analysis tool. The software toolkit which was chosen was an analytical group of algorithms from a Sandia National Laboratory (SNL) package called DAKOTA (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications). The specific application of interest to the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) is the analytical prediction of the performance of a Laser Beam Control systems under various scenarios, conditions, and missions. The application of rigorous UQ techniques to the models used to predict beam control performance could greatly improve our confidence in these predictions and also improve the acceptance of advanced Laser Beam Control systems within the science and engineering communities1,2. The proposed work would follow a multi-step approach, analyzing the more easily quantified sources of uncertainty, and then including increasingly complicated physical phenomena as the work progresses. Will present the initial results, and the first steps in the incorporation of UQ into our Laser Beam Control Modeling and Simulation environments.

Computational modeling of cardiac electrophysiology (EP) has recently transitioned from a scientific research tool to clinical applications. To ensure reliability of clinical or regulatory decisions made using cardiac EP models, it is vital to evaluate the uncertainty in model predictions. Model predictions are uncertain because there is typically substantial uncertainty in model input parameters, due to measurement error or natural variability. While there has been much recent uncertainty quantification (UQ) research for cardiac EP models, all previous work has been limited by either: (i) considering uncertainty in only a subset of the full set of parameters; and/or (ii) assigning arbitrary variation to parameters (e.g., ±10 or 50% around mean value) rather than basing the parameter uncertainty on experimental data. In our recent work we overcame the first limitation by performing UQ and sensitivity analysis using a novel canine action potential model, allowing all parameters to be uncertain, but with arbitrary variation. Here, we address the second limitation by extending our previous work to use data-driven estimates of parameter uncertainty. Overall, we estimated uncertainty due to population variability in all parameters in five currents active during repolarization: inward potassium rectifier, transient outward potassium, L-type calcium, rapidly and slowly activating delayed potassium rectifier; 25 parameters in total (all model parameters except fast sodium current parameters). A variety of methods was used to estimate the variability in these parameters. We then propagated the uncertainties through the model to determine their impact on predictions of action potential shape, action potential duration (APD) prolongation due to drug block, and spiral wave dynamics. Parameter uncertainty had a significant effect on model predictions, especially L-type calcium current parameters. Correlation between physiological parameters was determined to play a role in physiological realism of action potentials. Surprisingly, even model outputs that were relative differences, specifically drug-induced APD prolongation, were heavily impacted by the underlying uncertainty. This is the first data-driven end-to-end UQ analysis in cardiac EP accounting for uncertainty in the vast majority of parameters, including first in tissue, and demonstrates how future UQ could be used to ensure model-based decisions are robust to all underlying parameter uncertainties.

Uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis are essential for improving the modeling and estimation of greenhouse gas emissions in livestock farming to evaluate and reduce the impact of uncertainty in input parameters to model output. The present study is a comprehensive review of the sources of uncertainty and techniques used in uncertainty analysis, quantification, and sensitivity analysis. The search process involved rigorous selection criteria and articles retrieved from the Science Direct, Google Scholar, and Scopus databases and exported to RAYYAN for further screening. This review found that identifying the sources of uncertainty, implementing quantifying uncertainty, and analyzing sensitivity are of utmost importance in accurately estimating greenhouse gas emissions. This study proposes the development of an EcoPrecision framework for enhanced precision livestock farming, and estimation of emissions, to address the uncertainties in greenhouse gas emissions and climate change mitigation.

Uncertainty plays a role in nearly all aspects of prognostic health management (PHM) systems. Aleatory uncertainty from inherently-variable inputs such as material properties, epistemic uncertainty from a lack of knowledge about the system and its inputs, and ontological uncertainty due to completely unknown factors must all be accounted for in order to provide the most accurate assessment of the health of the monitored system. Northrop Grumman Innovation Systems (NGIS) develops, produces, and provides sustainment of solid rocket motor systems for the aerospace and defense industry and has extensive experience in applying uncertainty quantification (UQ) principles to complicated numerical simulations and analyses. In this paper, lessons learned by NGIS on UQ simulations and analyses are presented, and their applicability to PHM systems is explored. Methods for measuring and tracking uncertainty through the PHM predictive train are presented, as is a Monte-Carlo-based method for performing prognostic numerical calculations, which accounts for and quantifies epistemic, ontological, and aleatory uncertainty.

Optimization is often used to perform model calibration, the process of inferring the values of model parameters so that the results of the simulations best match observed behavior. It can both improve the predictive capability of the model and curtail the loss of information caused by using a numerical model instead of the actual system. At its heart is the comparison of experimental data and simulation results. Complicating this comparison is the fact that both data sets contain uncertainties which must be quantified in order to make reasonable comparisons. Therefore, uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques can be applied to identify, characterize, reduce, and, if possible, eliminate uncertainties. Incorporation of UQ into the calibration process can drastically improve the usefulness of computational models. Current approaches are serial approaches in that first, the calibration parameters are identified and then, a series of runs dedicated to UQ analysis is completed. Although this approach can be effective, it can be computationally expensive or produce incomplete results. Model analysis that takes advantage of intermediate optimization iterates can reduce the expense, but the sampling done by the optimization algorithms is not ideal. In this paper, we will review serial approaches and propose a joint calibration and UQ approach that combines Bayesian statistical models and derivative-free optimization in order to monitor sensitivity information throughout the calibration process.

The study on epistemic uncertainty due to the lack of knowledge has received increasing attention in risk assessment, reliability analysis, decision making, and design optimization. Different theories have been applied to model and quantify epistemic uncertainty. Research on sensitivity analysis for epistemic uncertainty has also been initialized. Sensitivity analysis can identify the contributions of individual input variables with epistemic uncertainty to the model output. It then helps guide the collection of more information to reduce the effect of epistemic uncertainty. In this paper, an effective sensitivity analysis method for epistemic uncertainty is proposed when both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties exist in model inputs. This method employs the unified uncertainty analysis framework to calculate the plausibility and belief measures. The gap between belief and plausibility measures is used as an indicator of the effect of epistemic uncertainty on the model output. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance between the two measures is used to quantify the main effect and the total effect of each independent variable with epistemic uncertainty. By the Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance, the importance of each variable is ranked. The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated with two engineering examples.

Pressure systems contain hazardous fluids within industrial processes. Inspection plays a vital role in managing the reliability of these safety-critical systems. It allows engineers to identify, characterize, and manage degradation of pressure vessels, piping, and associated equipment to prevent failure and the associated consequences on people and the environment. Mixed uncertainty can affect decision-making in at least three distinct aspects of inspection practice: inspection planning, inspection data analysis, and integrity assessment. Despite this, the inspection engineering discipline lacks methodologies for handling both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties within analyses, which could be expensively misleading. This paper demonstrates the benefits of applying mixed uncertainty quantification and analysis techniques to pressure vessel inspection and integrity assessment through a worked example, which shows how the epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in inspection data can be represented using an imprecise probability approach. The limitations of empirical data are shown to pose challenges to implementing these techniques in practice, and so practical requirements for a framework for implementing uncertainty analysis methods in inspection are proposed. These include, for example, the ability to generate meaningful yet conservative results from even a limited amount of poor-quality data, while allowing results to be bounded more narrowly as more data is collected, findings from better data are pooled, or engineering judgment and assumptions are applied.

Quality measures for the evaluation of machine learning architectures on the quantification of epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties in complex dynamical systems