Spatiotemporal Land Use Change Analysis Using Open-source GIS and Web Based Application

Developing countries, including those in Sub-Saharan Africa, continue to register high rates of urbanization, which is associated with significant changes in land use within its peri-urban areas. Nakuru City, in Kenya is not an exception. The city is one of the fastest growing cities in Eastern Africa. This is brought about by the high population growth rate and increased human activities. The growth of the city has caused notable changes in land use land cover in its peri-urban areas. Despite this, factual data on the extent of land use land cover changes is lacking, yet the data is critical for sustainable urban planning. Thus, this study sought to establish the spatio-temporal land use land cover changes in peri-urban areas of Nakuru city since 2003 to 2023. Study area polygon was used to select cloud free images and appropriate off-nadir angle of inclination. Purposive sampling was used to select three study locations out of seven locations which surround the city council of Nakuru. Supervised and unsupervised classification techniques were employed to get thematic information from satellite imagery. Idrisi remote sensing software was used to analyze spatial data on land use land cover changes. The results disclosed that land use land cover in peri-urban areas of Nakuru city changed significantly during the past two decades, between 2003 and 2023. Farmlands, built-up areas, bare lands and water bodies increased from 2003 to 2023. Forest area and shrub land, however, depicted a fluctuating trend with an area decrease in 2014 and then an increase in 2023. The area under grasslands constantly decreased. The findings of the study contribute towards achievement of the Kenya’s Vision 2030, which aim at providing high quality life, clean and secure environment to all through inclusive process involving all Kenyans. Appropriate measures need to be employed to reduce the rapid change in land use land cover and to integrate environmental conservation with urban development.

Simulating spatiotemporal land use change in middle and high latitude regions using multiscale fusion and cellular automata: The case of Northeast China

Visualisation of impacts due to the proposed developmental projects in the ecologically fragile regions- Kodagu district, Karnataka

Analyzing spatiotemporal changes in land use and land cover could provide basic information for appropriate decision-making and thereby plays an essential role in promoting the sustainable use of land resources, especially in ecologically fragile regions. In this paper, a case study was taken in Zhenlai County, which is a part of the farming-pastoral ecotone of Northern China. This study integrated methods of bitemporal change detection and temporal trajectory analysis to trace the paths of land cover change for every location in the study area from 1954 to 2005, using published land cover data based on topographic and environmental background maps and also remotely sensed images including Landsat MSS (Multispectral Scanner) and TM (Thematic Mapper). Meanwhile, the Lorenz curve and Gini coefficient derived from economic models were also used to study the land use structure changes to gain a better understanding of human impact on this fragile ecosystem. Results of bitemporal change detection showed that the most common land cover transition in the study area was an expansion of arable land at the expense of grassland and wetland. Plenty of grassland was converted to other unused land, indicating serious environmental degradation in Zhenlai County during the past decades. Trajectory analysis of land use and land cover change demonstrated that settlement, arable land, and water bodies were relatively stable in terms of coverage and spatial distribution, while grassland, wetland, and forest land had weak stability. Natural forces were still dominating the environmental processes of the study area, while human-induced changes also played an important role in environmental change. In addition, different types of land use displayed different concentration trends and had large changes during the study period. Arable land was the most decentralized, whereas forest land was the most concentrated. The above results not only revealed notable spatiotemporal features of land use and land cover change in the time series, but also confirmed the applicability and effectiveness of the methodology in our research, which combined bitemporal change detection, temporal trajectory analysis, and a Lorenz curve/Gini coefficient in analyzing spatiotemporal changes in land use and land cover.

ABSTRACTGlobal change, particularly the changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration, climatic variables, and nitrogen deposition, has been widely recognized and examined to have worldwide impacts on forest carbon. However, its influence on forest area required to meet the demand for timber and carbon storage and subsequent land use and land cover change (LULCC) is rarely studied. This study explores the role of global change‐driven forest carbon change in shaping future global LULCC projections and investigates underlying drivers. We incorporated the global change impacts on forest carbon from the Canadian Land Surface Scheme Including Biogeochemical Cycles model simulations (driven by meteorological forcing projections from two Earth system models [ESMs]) into the Global Change Analysis Model, under three combinations of shared socioeconomic pathways and representative concentration pathways (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585). Including forest carbon change decreases the projected expansion of managed forest and managed pasture, reduces the loss of unmanaged pastures and forests, and provides more cropland. The relative change in managed forest by 2100 is −4.0%, −21.7%, and −31.9%, under SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585, respectively, when forest carbon change is considered. CO2 fertilization is the dominant driver, increasing forest vegetation and soil carbon by 37% and 4.1%, and leading to 78.6% of the total area with a change in land use types by 2100 under SSP585. In comparison, climate change reduces forest vegetation and soil carbon by −3.5% and −0.8%, influencing 23.9% of the total area with a change in land use types by 2100 under SSP585, while nitrogen deposition has minor impacts. Using meteorological forcing data from two ESMs leads to similar impacts of forest carbon change on LULCC in terms of sign and trend but different magnitudes. This study highlights the large impact of forest carbon change on shaping future LULCC dynamics and the critical role of CO2 fertilization.

اهداف: پایش تغییرات کاربری‌ها و درک پویایی آن در یک حوضۀ آبخیز، از جایگاه خاصی در مدیریت پایدار آن حوضه برخوردار است. هدف تحقیق حاضر، استفاده از سنجش از دور و GIS جهت تهیۀ نقشۀ تغییرات و شناسایی انتقالات کاربری اراضی و پوشش زمین با به‌کارگیری ماتریس انتقال و تصاویر ماهوارۀ لندست در حوضۀ آبخیز دریاچۀ ارومیه می‌باشد. روش: جهت انجام تحقیق، از تصاویر ماهوارۀ لندست در دورۀ زمانی 2015 ـ 1988 استفاده گردید. بدین‌منظور پس از انجام پیش‌پردازش‌های موردنظر، جهت انجام طبقه‌بندی از روش‌های ماشین‌بردار پشتیبان و روشیءگرا استفاده و سپس اعتبارسنجی گردیدند. همچنین جهت برآورد میزان انتقالات و دیگر ویژگی‌های حوضۀ آبخیز دریاچۀ ارومیه، ابتدا ماتریس انتقالی استخراج شده و سپس طبقه‌بندی شئ‌گرا بین دوره‌های زمانی 2015ـ1988 ارائه شد. سپس با استفاده از فرمول‌های موردنظر، میزان پایداری، افزایش، کاهش، تغییرات کل، تغییرات خالص و مبادلۀ همزمان کاربری‌های اراضی و پوشش زمین مشخص گردید. یافته‌ها/ نتایج: پس از ارزیابی صحت، صحت کلی برای نقشه‌های حاصل از ماشین بردار پشتیبان و روش شئ‌گرا به‌ترتیب برابر با 94 و 92 درصد و مقدار کاپای آنها به‌ترتیب 92 و 89 برآورد شد که نشان‌دهندۀ برتری روش شئ‌گرا در مقایسه با روش ماشین بردار پشتیبان است. در کل، هر دو روش طبقه‌بندی توانستند صحت قابل‌قبولی برای نقشه‌های کاربری اراضی و پوشش زمین ارائه دهند. نتایج حاصل از انتقالات نشان داد به‌طور میانگین، 59 درصد از چهرۀ زمین در حوضۀ آبخیز دریاچۀ ارومیه در فاصلۀ زمانی 2015ـ 1988 پایداری پوشش داشته است، که بیشترین میزان این تداوم براساس مقدار این کاربری در فاصلۀ زمانی 2015ـ1988 مربوطه به مناطق مسکونی می-باشد. حدود 14 درصد از سطح حوزۀ آبخیز دریاچۀ ارومیه به‌صورت تبادل همزمان بوده است. همچنین سطوح آبی حوضۀ آبخیز دریاچۀ ارومیه در دورۀ زمانی فوق، بیشترین ازدست‌دادگی و کمترین تبادل همزمان را تجربه کرده است. نتیجه‌گیری: حوضۀ آبخیز دریاچۀ ارومیه در این فاصلۀ زمانی (2015ـ1988) تغییرات و انتقالات شدیدی را تجربه کرده است، تاجایی‌که تنها 59 درصد از چهرۀ زمین، ثابت مانده و قسمت‌های دیگر، انواعی از انتقال‌ها را تجربه کرده‌اند. همچنین سطوح آبی و سپس مراتع، بیشترین آسیب-پذیری را تجربه کرده‌اند که نشان از افزایش اراضی فاقد پوشش و اراضی زراعی (کشاورزی) می-باشد. این تجزیه‌وتحلیل ما را به سنجش و تجسم میزان انتقالات عمدۀ LULC درجهت برنامه‌ریزی آیندۀ حوضۀ آبخیز دریاچۀ ارومیه توصیه می‌کند.

The impact of land use- and climate change on the managed eco-geomorphic balance in the Alps

Support vector machine-based spatiotemporal land use land cover change analysis in a complex urban and rural landscape of Akaki river catchment, a Suburb of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

As one of the last agricultural frontiers of the humid tropics, Amazonia is the largest area of the world currently undergoing frontier settlement. Although the earliest intrusions of foreign populations into Amazonia date from pre-Hispanic times, the large-scale entrance of peasant colonists into the vast region is a recent phenomenon. Much of this movement represents the spontaneous migration of peoples, but governments in the region have also become increasingly interested in opening up and integrating Amazonia to national and international economies. These actions are frequently seen as potential solutions to a number of national problems, including the need to increase agricultural production, correct spatial imbalances in the distribution of population, exploit frontier lands for reasons of national security, and defuse potentially serious political problems resulting from the existing agrarian structure, landlessness, and unemployment. The upper basin of the Amazon in Ecuador, bordering on the eastern slopes of the Andes, is one such area of frontier settlement. Recent decades have witnessed the rapid conversion of these Amazonian forests to agricultural uses through a series of schemes bearing such labels as land development and colonization. Most forest intervention in the region has come at the hands of colonist farmers attempting to establish land claims along transport routes originally constructed to aid in petroleum exploration and exploitation. These are farmers who formerly have made a living in long-established farmlands and who, for various reasons (population pressures, pervasive poverty, maldistribution of farmland, lack of inputs for intensive cultivation, lack of nonagrarian livelihood opportunities, and generally inadequate rural development) have been increasingly squeezed out of their homelands. A marginal person by virtue of his low socioeconomic and political status, the farmer often perceives

The contribution of early human activity to the increase in atmospheric CH4 content during the middle to late-Holocene is still debated. The quantitative reconstruction of past changes in land use by early rice agriculture is a key to resolving the issue, because large uncertainties still exist in current prehistoric land use estimates, owing to a lack of direct records. In this study, we used the combination of archaeological data (the area and distribution of archaeological sites) and an improved prehistoric land use model (PLUM) to determine the spatiotemporal changes in land use by rice agriculture throughout the Yangtze River Valley, China, which was the origin and centre of the development of rice cultivation. The results indicate that the area devoted to rice agriculture increased during 10–2 ka BP, and that a significant increase occurred at ~5 ka BP accompanied by a spatial expansion from the northern part of the valley to the entire valley. However, the rice land use area decreased slightly during 4–3 ka BP but then increased after 3 ka BP. We estimate that the CH4 emissions from the rice cultivated area in the Yangtze River Valley increased from ~0.001 (±0.001) to ~1.3 (±0.6) Tg/year during 10–2 ka BP, and the resulting atmospheric CH4 concentrations increased from ~0.004 (±0.002) to ~4.1 (±2.0) ppb, which accounted for 3 (±2)–9 (±5) % of the ‘anomalous atmospheric CH4 increase’ during 5–2 ka BP.

AN ASSESSMENT OF SPATIAL VARIATION OF LAND SURFACE CHARACTERISTICS OF MINNA, NIGER STATE NIGERIA FOR SUSTAINABLE URBANIZATION USING GEOSPATIAL TECHNIQUES

The analysis of changes in land use and land cover has recently received ample attention in the scientific literature. So far, dynamic and integrated modeling approaches which are essential for the modeling of complex systems are relatively few. CLUE (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects), an empirically based framework for modeling changes in land use on various scales was developed to fill part of this gap. CLUE combines a statistical description of land use with scenarios of changes in the demand for regional commodities to model the possible pathways of future land use development. In the Atlantic Zone of Costa Rica CLUE was applied for the first time on sub-national scale. Multiple regression analyses produced equations with coefficients of determination between 0.58 and 0.91 for the major kinds of land use in the area (forest, pasture and banana). The statistical analysis demonstrated the importance of considering both biophysical and socio-economic variables as the driving forces of land use changes. Predicted changes in geographic patterns between 1984 and 2005 under different scenarios could be related to processes that are already known to take place in the Atlantic Zone. Forest was predicted to be largely replaced by pasture and to become limited to areas unfavorable for agriculture. Model validation yielded highly significant results with correlation coefficients ranging from 0.87 to 0.95 for the major kinds of land use. The study demonstrates that dynamic, multi-scale empirical modeling is a suitable tool to model land use changes on sub-national levels.KeywordsEuropean UnionGross Domestic ProductionMultiple Regression ModelNational ParkBase ScenarioThese keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Land use intensification rather than land cover change affects regulating services in the mountainous Adige river basin (Italy)

The factors that contribute to land use change in the municipality of Gaucha do Norte - MT, are entirely linked to the economic process and agricultural production. This process has left brazil in a state of alert due to the process of deforestation and loss of tropical forests. From 2000 to 2010, the forest areas converted into agriculture accounted for 13.3%, the main factor that directly potentiated with deforestation was the cultivation of soybeans, which in turn was occupying places previously occupied by livestock and pushing the livestock forest inside. The phenomena of land use change and land cover start from multidimensional issues in the environmental and economic context. The use of environmental modeling through cellular automata to analyze land use change phenomena and reproduce the trajectory through future land use simulations and evolution establishes an integration associated by mathematical models and flow integration systems. That predict the trajectory of land use change, thus generating a dynamic model capable of predicting future land use changes by replicating possible patterns of landscape evolution and enabling assessments of future ecological implications for the environment.

With the rapid development of social economy, the ecological environment problems caused by the change of wetland land use have been widely concerned. This paper takes the Caohai National Nature Reserve (CNNR) of China as the research object on the basis of referring to previous research results. Firstly, the remote sensing data was employed to examine the spatio-temporal evolution process of the CNNR from three aspects: land use structure change, land use dynamic degree and land use space change. Then the change of ecological environment quality was studied from the greenness, the wetness, the dryness and the heat. Based on the spatiotemporal changes of land use types and ecological environment quality in the CNNR from 2000 to 2020, a comprehensive index, the remote sensing ecological index (RSEI), was constructed to analyze the ecological environmental effects of land use changes. The results indicate that the land use changes in the CNNR went through two major periods: first, a period of rapid decline in cultivated land, and second, a period of sharp increase in constructed land. During the period of rapid decline in cultivated land, the ecological environment quality in the study area showed an upward trend. However, during the period of increased constructed land, the ecological environment quality gradually stabilized. This study provides a basis for the coordinated development of the ecological environment and social economy in the CNNR area.