SPECIFICATION TESTING FOR ERRORS-IN-VARIABLES MODELS

In this paper, fuzzified Choquet integral and fuzzy-valued integrand with respect to separate measures like fuzzy measure, signed fuzzy measure and intuitionistic fuzzy measure are used to develop regression model for forecasting. Fuzzified Choquet integral is used to build a regression model for forecasting time series with multiple attributes as predictor attributes. Linear regression based forecasting models are suffering from low accuracy and unable to approximate the non-linearity in time series. Whereas Choquet integral can be used as a general non-linear regression model with respect to non classical measures. In the Choquet integral based regression model parameters are optimized by using a real coded genetic algorithm (GA). In these forecasting models, fuzzified integrands denote the participation of an individual attribute or a group of attributes to predict the current situation. Here, more generalized Choquet integral,i.e., fuzzified Choquet integral is used in case of non-linear time series forecasting models. Three different real stock exchange data are used to predict the time series forecasting model. It is observed that the accuracy of prediction models highly depends on the non-linearity of the time series.

A general nonlinear regression model is considered in the form of fitting a sum of damped sinusoids to a series of non-uniform observations. The problem of parameter estimation in this model is important in many applications like signal processing. The corresponding continuous optimization problem is typically difficult due to the high multiextremal character of the objective function. It is shown how Lipschitz-based deterministic methods can be well-suited for studying these challenging global optimization problems, when a limited computational budget is given and some guarantee of the found solution is required.

In this paper, we aim to develop a semiparametric transformation model. Nonparametric transformation functions are modeled with Bayesian P-splines. The transformed variables can be fitted to a general nonlinear mixed model, including linear or nonlinear regression models, mixed effect models, factor analysis models, and other latent variable models as special cases. Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms are implemented to estimate transformation functions and unknown quantities in the model. The performance of the developed methodology is demonstrated with a simulation study. Its application to a real study on polydrug use is presented.

A general multivariate non-linear regression model is considered, including as special cases linear regression when the regression matrix is of less than full rank, simultaneous equations systems and regression on an unobservable predetermined variable. Given a time-series of observations at unit intervals we consider the estimation of the parameters, subject to non-linear constraints, by minimizing a criterion based on the Fourier-transformed model. We allow the residuals to be generated by a stationary, linear, process and establish asymptotic properties of our estimates.

Field‐chamber measurements of soil respiration from 17 different forest and shrubland sites in Europe and North America were summarized and analyzed with the goal to develop a model describing seasonal, interannual and spatial variability of soil respiration as affected by water availability, temperature, and site properties. The analysis was performed at a daily and at a monthly time step. With the daily time step, the relative soil water content in the upper soil layer expressed as a fraction of field capacity was a good predictor of soil respiration at all sites. Among the site variables tested, those related to site productivity (e.g., leaf area index) correlated significantly with soil respiration, while carbon pool variables like standing biomass or the litter and soil carbon stocks did not show a clear relationship with soil respiration. Furthermore, it was evidenced that the effect of precipitation on soil respiration stretched beyond its direct effect via soil moisture. A general statistical nonlinear regression model was developed to describe soil respiration as dependent on soil temperature, soil water content, and site‐specific maximum leaf area index. The model explained nearly two thirds of the temporal and intersite variability of soil respiration with a mean absolute error of 0.82 μmol m−2 s−1. The parameterized model exhibits the following principal properties: (1) At a relative amount of upper‐layer soil water of 16% of field capacity, half‐maximal soil respiration rates are reached. (2) The apparent temperature sensitivity of soil respiration measured as Q10 varies between 1 and 5 depending on soil temperature and water content. (3) Soil respiration under reference moisture and temperature conditions is linearly related to maximum site leaf area index. At a monthly timescale, we employed the approach by Raich et al. [2002] that used monthly precipitation and air temperature to globally predict soil respiration (T&P model). While this model was able to explain some of the month‐to‐month variability of soil respiration, it failed to capture the intersite variability, regardless of whether the original or a new optimized model parameterization was used. In both cases, the residuals were strongly related to maximum site leaf area index. Thus, for a monthly timescale, we developed a simple T&P&LAI model that includes leaf area index as an additional predictor of soil respiration. This extended but still simple model performed nearly as well as the more detailed time step model and explained 50% of the overall and 65% of the site‐to‐site variability. Consequently, better estimates of globally distributed soil respiration should be obtained with the new model driven by satellite estimates of leaf area index. Before application at the continental or global scale, this approach should be further tested in boreal, cold‐temperate, and tropical biomes as well as for non‐woody vegetation.

TAO-robust backpropagation learning algorithm

We are honored to be guest editors for this special issue of Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, dedicated to Kathryn Chaloner's life and achievements. Contributions from her colleagues and friends in this volume are devoted to Kathryn's early research interest in Bayesian optimal design. She was a pioneer in this field and had a broad impact on the subsequent literature on experimental design. Kathryn was internationally known for her research in Bayesian Statistics, which included design of experiments, outlier detection, prior elicitation, and clinical trials, and for her advancements in the study of HIV/AIDS. She was an accomplished researcher, teacher, and mentor. She actively encouraged women and under-represented minority students to join the field of biostatistics and provided mentorship, support, and encouragement. The special issue contains seven papers. The first three papers present some of the recent work in Bayesian optimal designs for nonlinear models, binary responses, and experiments with adversarial components. This is followed by two articles on Bayesian designs in clinical trials. The last two articles of the special issue involve engineering design problems. The paper by Giovagnoli considers the binary response models of Chaloner and Larntz (1989, Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 21:191–208) and develops an adaptive version of A-optimal Bayesian designs that are revised as additional data become available during the experiment. Adaptive Bayesian compound designs is also discussed as another extension. Konstantinou and Dette develop approximate Bayesian D-optimal designs for nonlinear regression models that involve covariates that cannot be observed directly. Applications to specific nonlinear models including the exponential regression model are considered and characterizations of the D-optimal saturated designs are presented. Optimal sample size selection for experiments is considered by De Santis and Gubbiotti in an adversarial setting where the decision makers have different prior opinions while having common utility functions and data. Using a Bayesian decision approach with a quadratic loss function, the authors present results for the one-parameter exponential family and investigate effect of the priors on the optimal sample size. Müller, Xu, and Thall discuss advantages and limitations of Bayesian decision theoretic approach in design of clinical trials. In doing so, the authors present a specific case study and point out the limitations such as the computational difficulties involved in solving sequential problems as well as selection of utility functions capturing different stakeholder interests. The article by Ventz, Parmigiani, and Trippa also consider limitations of the Bayesian framework in design of clinical trials and propose a strategy to alleviate these. The proposed strategy involves combining Bayesian designs with frequentist metrics such as error rates, confidence intervals, etc. that are commonly used by medical community and regulatory agencies. The authors show that this can be achieved by an inclusion of frequentist constraints into the Bayesian formulation. The constrained decision theoretic framework is illustrated via several applications and computational algorithms are presented for implementing the proposed approach. Nakamura, Seepaul, Kadane, and Reeja-Jayan discuss design of experiments in materials science. The authors consider use of a batch-sequential experiment and a regression model to determine optimal levels of input variables for synthesis of ceramic materials. It is illustrated that the optimal settings produce more reliable results than other experiments. The final article by Polson and Soyer considers Bayesian design of accelerated life tests for reliability assessment. An augmented probability simulation (APS) approach using Lindley's (1976, Annals of Statistics, 4:1–10) conjugate utility functions is proposed to compute optimal designs in an efficient manner. The proposed approach is illustrated using single and multiple point designs. Use of particle based methods for APS is also discussed as an alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo methods.

This paper considers testing the goodness-of-fit of regression models. Emphasis is on a goodness-of-fit test for generalized linear models with canonical link function and known dispersion parameter. The test is based on the score test for extra variation in a random effects model. By choosing a suitable form for the dispersion matrix, a goodness-of-fit test statistic is obtained which is quite similar to test statistics based on non-parametric kernel methods. We consider the distribution of the test statistic and discuss the choice of the dispersion matrix. The testing method can handle models with continuous and discrete covariates. Corrections for bias when parameters are estimated are available and extensions to models with unknown dispersion parameters, and more general nonlinear models are discussed. The proposed goodness-of-fit method is demonstrated in a simulation study and on real data of bone marrow transplant patients. The individual contributions of observations to the test statistic are used to perform residual analyses.

Abstract. The combination of complex, multiple minerogenic stages and mineral superposition during geological processes has resulted in dynamic spatial distributions and nonstationarity of geological variables. For example, geochemical elements exhibit clear spatial variability and trends with coverage type changes. Thus, bias is likely to occur under these conditions when general regression models are applied to mineral prospectivity mapping (MPM). In this study, we used a spatially weighted technique to improve general logistic regression and developed an improved model, i.e., the improved logistic regression model, based on a spatially weighted technique (ILRBSWT, version 1.0). The capabilities and advantages of ILRBSWT are as follows: (1) it is a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model, and thus it has all advantages of GWR when managing spatial trends and nonstationarity; (2) while the current software employed for GWR mainly applies linear regression, ILRBSWT is based on logistic regression, which is more suitable for MPM because mineralization is a binary event; (3) a missing data processing method borrowed from weights of evidence is included in ILRBSWT to extend its adaptability when managing multisource data; and (4) in addition to geographical distance, the differences in data quality or exploration level can be weighted in the new model.

This paper discusses asymptotic distributions of various estimators of the underlying parameters in some regression models with long memory (LM) Gaussian design and nonparametric heteroscedastic LM moving average errors. In the simple linear regression model, the first-order asymptotic distribution of the least square estimator of the slope parameter is observed to be degenerate. However, in the second order, this estimator is $n^{1/2}$-consistent and asymptotically normal for $h+H<3/2$; nonnormal otherwise, where $h$ and $H$ are LM parameters of design and error processes, respectively. The finite-dimensional asymptotic distributions of a class of kernel type estimators of the conditional variance function $\sigma^2(x)$ in a more general heteroscedastic regression model are found to be normal whenever $H<(1+h)/2$, and non-normal otherwise. In addition, in this general model, $\log(n)$-consistency of the local Whittle estimator of $H$ based on pseudo residuals and consistency of a cross validation type estimator of $\sigma^2(x)$ are established. All of these findings are then used to propose a lack-of-fit test of a parametric regression model, with an application to some currency exchange rate data which exhibit LM.

We investigate hypothesis testing in nonparametric additive models estimated using simplified smooth backfitting (Huang and Yu, Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 28(2), 386–400, 2019). Simplified smooth backfitting achieves oracle properties under regularity conditions and provides closed-form expressions of the estimators that are useful for deriving asymptotic properties. We develop a generalized likelihood ratio (GLR) (Fan, Zhang and Zhang, Annals of statistics, 29(1),153–193, 2001) and a loss function (LF) (Hong and Lee, Annals of Statistics, 41(3), 1166–1203, 2013)-based testing framework for inference. Under the null hypothesis, both the GLR and LF tests have asymptotically rescaled chi-squared distributions, and both exhibit the Wilks phenomenon, which means the scaling constants and degrees of freedom are independent of nuisance parameters. These tests are asymptotically optimal in terms of rates of convergence for nonparametric hypothesis testing. Additionally, the bandwidths that are well suited for model estimation may be useful for testing. We show that in additive models, the LF test is asymptotically more powerful than the GLR test. We use simulations to demonstrate the Wilks phenomenon and the power of these proposed GLR and LF tests, and a real example to illustrate their usefulness.

In this chapter we consider dependent data but move from the linear models of Chap.8 to general regression models. As in Chap.6, we consider generalized linear models (GLMs) and, more briefly, nonlinear models. We first give an outline of this chapter. In Sect.9.2 we describe three motivating datasets to which we return throughout the chapter. The GLMs discussed in Sect.6.3 can be extended to incorporate dependences in observations on the same unit; as with the linear model, an obvious way to carry out modeling in this case is to introduce unit-specific random effects. Within a GLM a natural approach is for these random effects to be included on the linear predictor scale. The resultant conditional models are known as generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs), and these are introduced in Sect.9.3. In Sects.9.4 and9.5 we describe likelihood and conditional likelihood methods of estimation, with Sect.9.6 devoted to a Bayesian treatment. Section9.7 illustrates some of the flexibility of GLMMs by describing and applying a particular model for spatial dependence. An alternative random effects specification, based on conjugacy, is described in Sect.9.8. An important approach to the modeling and analysis of dependent data that is philosophically different from the random effects formulation is via marginal models and generalized estimating equations (GEE), and these are the subject of Sect.9.9. In Sect.9.10, a second GEE approach is described in which the estimating equations for the mean are supplemented with a second set for the variances/covariances. For GLMMs, extra care must be taken with parameter interpretation, and Sect.9.11 discusses this issue, emphasizing how interpretation differs between conditional and marginal models. In PartII of the book, which focused on independent data, Chap.7 was devoted to models for binary data. For dependent data, models binary data are less well developed, and so we do not devote a complete chapter to their description. However, Sect.9.12 introduces the modeling of dependent binary data, and, subsequently, Sects.9.13 and 9.14 describe conditional (mixed) and marginal models for binary data. Section 9.15 considers how nonlinear models, as defined in Sect.6.10, can be extended to the dependent data case. For such models, many applications concentrate on inference for units, and so the introduction of random effects is again suggested. We refer to the resultant class of models as nonlinear mixed models (NLMMs). Section9.16 considers issues related to the parameterization of the nonlinear model. Inference for nonlinear mixed models via likelihood and Bayes approaches is covered in Sects.9.17 and9.18, while GEE is briefly considered in Sect.9.19. The assessment of assumptions for general regression models is described in Sect.9.20, with concluding comments contained in Sect.9.21. Additional references appear in Sect.9.22.

Frequency domain estimation and tests of hypotheses are considered for a general multivariate distributed lag regression model. The usual vector of regression functions is replaced by a matrix of almost periodic functions, a case for which the terms appearing in the frequency domain estimators have well-defined limits. Asymptotic distributions and consistency are established for the regression coefficients and error spectra. A test statistic is proposed for the no regression hypothesis which is asymptotically central under the null hypothesis and converges to infinity under the alternative. In the multivariate case, a product of beta-distributed variables is obtained.

In a general normal regression model, this paper first derives the least upper bound (LUB) for the covariance matrix of a generalized least squares estimator (GLSE) relative to the covariance matrix of the Gauss-Markov estimator. Second the result is applied to the (unrestricted) Zellner estimator in an N-equation seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) model and to the GLSE in a heteroscedastic model.

Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) study potential relationships in regression models that distinguish geographic spaces using non-stationary parameters to overcome spatial effects. The use of gamma regression, namely regression with the dependent variable with a gamma distribution, can be an alternative if the data do not follow a normal distribution. Gamma distribution is a continuous set of non-negative values, generally skewed to the right or positive skewness. Gamma regression is developed to be Bivariate Gamma Regression (BGR) when there are two dependent variables with gamma distribution. If the observation units are location points, spatial effects may occur. The Geographically Weighted Bivariate Gamma Regression (GWBGR) model can be a solution for spatial heterogeneity. However, during its development, many cases require information from panel data. Using panel data can provide complete information because it covers several periods, but it allows for temporal effects. This study developed a Geographically and Temporally Weighted Bivariate Gamma Regression (GTWBGR) model to handle spatial and temporal heterogeneity simultaneously. The estimation of the GTWBGR model parameters uses the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method that followed by the numerical iteration of Berndt Hall Hall Hausman (BHHH). The simultaneous testing uses the Maximum Likelihood Ratio Test (MLRT) method to get a test statistic. With a large sample size, the distribution of the test statistic approaches chi-square. Meanwhile, partial testing uses the Z test statistic.