Staff churn and lifetime prediction using machine learning

Drought is a complex and frequently occurring natural hazard in many parts of the world. Therefore, accurate drought forecasting is essential to mitigate its adverse impacts. This research has inferred the implication and the appropriateness of the extreme learning machine (ELM) algorithm for drought forecasting. For numerical evaluation, time series data of the Standardized Precipitating Temperature Index (SPTI) are used for nine meteorological stations located in various climatological zones of Pakistan. To assess the performance of ELM, this research includes parallel inferences of multilayer perceptron (MLP) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. The performance of each model is assessed using root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percent error (MAPE), Kling‐Gupta efficiency (KGE), Willmott index (WI), and Karl Pearson’s correlation coefficient. Generally, graphical results illustrated an excellent performance of the ELM algorithm over MLP and ARIMA models. For training data of SPTI‐1, ELM’s best performance has observed at Chitral station (RMSE = 0.374, KGE = 0.838, WI = 0.960, MAE = 0.272, MAPE = 259.59, R = 0.93). For SPTI‐1 at Astore station, the numerical results are (RMSE = 0.688, KGE = 0.988, WI = 0.997, MAE = 0.798, MAPE = 247.35). The overall results indicate that the ELM outperformed by producing the smallest RMSE, MAE, and MAPE values and maximum values for KGE, WI, and correlation coefficient values at almost all the selected meteorological stations for (1, 3, 6, 9, and 12) month time scales. In summary, this research endorses the use of ELM for accurate drought forecasting.

Software Defined Network (SDN) is a programmable network architecture that provides innovative solutions to the problems of the traditional networks. Congestion control is still an uncharted territory for this technology. In this work, a congestion prediction scheme has been developed by using neural networks. Minimum Redundancy Maximum Relevance (mRMR) feature selection algorithm was performed on the data collected from the OMNET++ simulation. The novelty of this study also covers the implementation of mRMR in an SDN congestion prediction problem. After evaluating the relevance scores, two highest ranking features were used. On the learning stage Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous Neural Network (NARX), Nonlinear Autoregressive Neural Network, and Nonlinear Feedforward Neural Network algorithms were executed. These algorithms had not been used before in SDNs according to the best of the authors knowledge. The experiments represented that NARX was the best prediction algorithm. This machine learning approach can be easily integrated to different topologies and application areas.

This article devises the Artificial Intelligence (AI) methods of designing models of short-term forecasting (in 12 h and 24 h horizons) of electricity production in a selected Small Hydropower Plant (SHP). Renewable Energy Sources (RESs) are difficult to predict due to weather variability. Electricity production by a run-of-river SHP is marked by the variability related to the access to instantaneous flow in the river and weather conditions. In order to develop predictive models of an SHP facility (installed capacity 760 kW), which is located in Southern Poland on the Skawa River, hourly data from nearby meteorological stations and a water gauge station were collected as explanatory variables. Data on the water management of the retention reservoir above the SHP were also included. The variable to be explained was the hourly electricity production, which was obtained from the tested SHP over a period of 3 years and 10 months. Obtaining these data to build models required contact with state institutions and private entrepreneurs of the SHP. Four AI methods were chosen to create predictive models: two types of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Radial Base Functions (RBFs), and two types of decision trees methods, Random Forest (RF) and Gradient-Boosted Decision Trees (GBDTs). Finally, after applying forecast quality measures of Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and Coefficient of Determination (R2), the most effective model was indicated. The decision trees method proved to be more accurate than ANN models. The best GBDT models’ errors were MAPE 3.17% and MAE 9.97 kWh (for 12 h horizon), and MAPE 3.41% and MAE 10.96 kWh (for 24 h horizon). MLPs had worse results: MAPE from 5.41% to 5.55% and MAE from 18.02 kWh to 18.40 kWh (for 12 h horizon), and MAPE from 7.30% to 7.50% and MAE from 24.12 kWh to 24.83 kWh (for 24 h horizon). Forecasts using RBF were not made due to the very low quality of training and testing (the correlation coefficient was approximately 0.3).

Depression can induce significant anguish and impair one's ability to perform effectively in professional, academic, and familial settings. This condition has the potential to result in suicide. Annually, the number of deaths resulting from suicide exceeds 700,000. Among individuals aged 15-29, suicide has emerged as the fourth most prevalent cause of mortality. Challenges in treating depression include limited accessibility to mental health care in rural regions and misdiagnosis resulting from subjective evaluations, wherein insufficient expertise can contribute to inaccurate diagnoses. Electroencephalography (EEG) has gained popularity as a tool for the identification and study of a number of mental illnesses in the past several years. Therefore, an automated technique is required to precisely distinguish between normal EEG signals and depression signals. This research focused on developing an EEG-based depression detection system in the prefrontal cortex lobe area (Fp1, Fpz, and Fp2). One of the developments carried out in this research is the implementation of Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (Bi-LSTM) as the model classification and minimum redundancy maximum relevance (mRMR) feature selection. Results suggest that the combination of mRMR feature selection with 25 features and the Bidirectional LSTM obtained 92.83% for the accuracy.

The relationship between weather and acute coronary syndrome (ACS) incidence has been the subject of considerable research, with varying conclusions. Harnessing machine learning techniques, our study explores the relationship between meteorological factors and ACS presentations in the emergency department (ED), offering insights into seasonal variations and inter-day fluctuations to optimize patient care and resource allocation. A retrospective cohort analysis was conducted, encompassing ACS presentations to Dutch EDs from 2010 to 2017. Temporal patterns were analyzed using heat-maps and time series plots. Multivariable linear regression (MLR) and Random Forest (RF) regression models were employed to forecast daily ACS presentations with prediction horizons of one, three, seven, and thirty days. Model performance was assessed using the coefficient of determination (R²), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The study included 214,953 ACS presentations, predominantly unstable angina (UA) (94,272; 44%), non-ST-elevated myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) (78,963; 37%), and ST-elevated myocardial infarction (STEMI) (41,718; 19%). A decline in daily ACS admissions over time was observed, with notable inter-day (estimated median difference: 41 (95%CI = 37–43, p = < 0.001) and seasonal variations (estimated median difference: 9 (95%CI 6–12, p = < 0.001). Both MLR and RF models demonstrated similar predictive capabilities, with MLR slightly outperforming RF. The models showed moderate explanatory power for ACS incidence (adjusted R² = 0.66; MAE (MAPE): 7.8 (11%)), with varying performance across subdiagnoses. Prediction of UA incidence resulted in the best-explained variability (adjusted R² = 0.80; MAE (MAPE): 5.3 (19.1%)), followed by NSTEMI and STEMI diagnoses. All models maintained consistent performance over extended prediction horizons. Our findings indicate that ACS presentation exhibits distinctive seasonal changes and inter-day differences, with marked reductions in incidence during the summer months and a distinct peak prevalence on Mondays. The predictive performance of our model was moderate. Nonetheless, we obtained good explanatory power for UA presentations. Our model emerges as a potentially valuable supplementary tool to enhance ED resource allocation or future predictive models predicting ACS incidence in the ED.

Accurate forecasts of water demand are a crucial factor in the strategic planning and judicious use of finite water resources within a region, underpinning sustainable socio-economic development. This study aims to compare the applicability of various artificial intelligence models for long-term water demand forecasting across different water use sectors. We utilized the Tuojiang River basin in Sichuan Province as our case study, comparing the performance of five artificial intelligence models: Genetic Algorithm optimized Back Propagation Neural Network (GA-BP), Extreme Learning Machine (ELM), Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), Support Vector Regression (SVR), and Random Forest (RF). These models were employed to predict water demand in the agricultural, industrial, domestic, and ecological sectors using actual water demand data and relevant influential factors from 2005 to 2020. Model performance was evaluated based on the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), with the most effective model used for 2025 water demand projections for each sector within the study area. Our findings reveal that the GPR model demonstrated superior results in predicting water demand for the agricultural, domestic, and ecological sectors, attaining R2 values of 0.9811, 0.9338, and 0.9142 for the respective test sets. Also, the GA-BP model performed optimally in predicting industrial water demand, with an R2 of 0.8580. The identified optimal prediction model provides a useful tool for future long-term water demand forecasting, promoting sustainable water resource management.

Schizophrenia is a serious psychiatric illness which needs early and accurate diagnosis. Difference in activation patterns of schizophrenia patients and healthy subjects can be identified with the help of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). However, manual diagnosis using fMRI depends on subjective observation and may be erroneous. This has motivated the pattern recognition and machine learning research community to develop a reliable and efficient decision model for classification of schizophrenia patients and healthy subjects. However, high dimensionality and low availability of fMRI data leads to the curse-of-dimensionality problem which may degrade the performance of decision model. In the present research work, a combination of feature extraction and feature selection techniques is utilised to obtain a reduced set of relevant and non-redundant features for classification of schizophrenia patients and healthy subjects. Features are extracted from pre-processed fMRI data using a general linear model approach. Next Fisher's discriminant ratio, a univariate method, is employed for feature selection i.e. To determine a subset of discriminative features. Further, minimum Redundancy Maximum Relevance (mRMR) feature selection, a multivariate method, is employed to obtain a set of relevant and non-redundant features which are used for learning a decision model using support vector machine. Two balanced and well-age matched datasets of auditory oddball task derived from a publicly available multisite FBIRN dataset are used for experiments. First dataset consists of fMRI scans of 34 schizophrenia patients and 34 healthy subjects acquired through 1.5 Tesla scanners while second dataset consists of 25 schizophrenia patients and 25 healthy subjects acquired through 3 Tesla scanners. The performance is evaluated in terms of sensitivity, specificity and classification accuracy, and compared with two well-known existing approaches for classification of schizophrenia patients and healthy subjects using fMRI. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms the existing approaches in terms of sensitivity, specificity and classification accuracy. The proposed approach achieves classification accuracy of 88.2% and 78.0% for 1.5 Tesla and 3 Tesla datasets respectively. In addition, the brain regions containing the discriminative features are identified which may be potential biomarkers for diagnosis of schizophrenia using fMRI.

This article uses machine learning techniques as fuzzy and neuro-fuzzy ANFISs, to develop and compare prediction models capable of relating pregnant women’s exposure to air pollutants, such as Nitrogen Dioxide and Particulate Matter, the mother’s age, and the number of prenatal consultations to the incidence of premature birth. In the current literature, studies can be found that relate prematurity to the exposure of pregnant women to NO2, O3, and PM10; to Toluene and benzene, mainly in the window 5 to 10 days before birth; and to PM10 in the week before birth. Both models used logistic regression to quantify the effects of pollutants as a result of premature birth. Datasets from Brazil—Departamento de Informatica do Sistema Único de Saúde (DATASUS) and Companhia Ambiental do Estado de São Paulo (CETESB)—were used, covering the period from 2016 to 2018 and comprising women living in the city of São José dos Campos (SP), Brazil. In order to evaluate and compare the different techniques used, evaluation metrics were calculated, such as correlation (r), coefficient of determination (R2), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Square Error (MSE), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). These metrics are widely used in the literature due to their ability to evaluate the robustness and efficiency of prediction models. For the RMSE, MAPE, MSE, and MAE metrics, lower values indicate that prediction errors are smaller, demonstrating better model accuracy and confidence. In the case of (r) and R2, a positive and strong result indicates alignment and better performance between the real and predicted data. The neuro-fuzzy ANFIS model showed superior performance, with a correlation (r) of 0.59, R2 = 0.35, RMSE = 2.83, MAPE = 5.35%, MSE = 8.00, and MAE = 1.70, while the fuzzy model returned results of r = 0.20, R2 = 0.04, RMSE = 3.29, MSE = 10.81, MAPE = 6.67%, and MAE = 2.01. Therefore, the results from the ANFIS neuro-fuzzy system indicate greater prediction capacity and precision in relation to the fuzzy system. This superiority can be explained by integration with neural networks, allowing data learning and, consequently, more efficient modeling. In addition, the findings obtained in this study have potential for the formulation of public health policies aimed at reducing the number of premature births and promoting improvements in maternal and neonatal health.

Globally, wind energy if properly harnessed, could serve as a source of energy generation in Africa. This study compared the performance of two Machine Learning (ML) algorithms (Linear regression and Random Forest) in predicting wind speed in five major cities in Africa (Yaoundé, Pretoria, Nairobi, Cairo and Abuja). Wind data were collected between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2022, using the Solar Radiation Data Archive. The data preprocessing was carried out with 80% of the data used for training and 20% for validation. The performance of these ML algorithms was evaluated using Mean Square Error (MSE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and coefficient of determination (R2). The result shows that Nairobi (3.814795 m/s) closely followed by Cairo (3.606453 m/s) has the highest mean wind speed while Yaoundé (1.090512 m/s) has the lowest. Based on the performance metrics used, the two Machine Learning algorithms were competitive. Still, the Linear Regression (LR) algorithm outperformed the Random Forest Algorithm in predicting wind speed in all the selected major African cities. In Yaoundé (RMSE = 0.3892, MAE= 0.3001, MAPE =0.5030), Pretoria (RMSE=1.2339, MAE=0.9480, MAPE=0.7450) Nairobi (RMSE= 0.4223, MAE =0.6499, MAPE =0.1872), Nairobi (RMSE=0.6499, MAE=0.5171, MAPE =0.1872), Cairo (RMSE =1.0909, MAE =0.8544, MAPE =0.3541) and Abuja (RMSE = 0.70245, MAE =0.5441, MAPE= 0.4515) the Linear regression algorithms was found to outperformed Random Forest Regression. Therefore, the Linear regression algorithm is more reliable in predicting wind speed compared with the Random Forest regression.

The matter of success in forecasting precipitation is of great significance to flood control and drought relief, and water resources planning and management. For the nonlinear problem in forecasting precipitation time series, a hybrid prediction model based on variational mode decomposition (VMD) coupled with extreme learning machine (ELM) is proposed to reduce the difficulty in modeling monthly precipitation forecasting and improve the prediction accuracy. The monthly precipitation data in the past 60 years from Yan’an City and Huashan Mountain, Shaanxi Province, are used as cases to test this new hybrid model. First, the nonstationary monthly precipitation time series are decomposed into several relatively stable intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) by using VMD. Then, an ELM prediction model is established for each IMF. Next, the predicted values of these components are accumulated to obtain the final prediction results. Finally, three predictive indicators are adopted to measure the prediction accuracy of the proposed hybrid model, back propagation (BP) neural network, Elman neural network (Elman), ELM, and EMD-ELM models: mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The experimental simulation results show that the proposed hybrid model has higher prediction accuracy and can be used to predict the monthly precipitation time series.

Shear wave velocity (Vs) is considered a key soil parameter in the field of earthquake engineering. The time-averaged shear wave velocity in the upper 30 m (Vs30) layer of soil is used to classify seismic site class. In-situ Vs test is sometimes unsuitable to the project’s need due to financial reasons, noisy environment on site or simply the lack of expertise. This paper attempts to develop a global prediction model for Vs using Standard Penetration Resistance (Nspt), depth (z) and soil type (st) as the independent parameters. Two approaches to modelling would be taken; a multi-linear regression (MLR) model and an ensemble (EN-PSO) model. The EN-PSO model attempts to improve upon the accuracy of the MLR model prediction ability using the ensemble learning method. A dataset was compiled from literatures for this paper. 5 Base models were developed: MLR, Random Forest (RFR), Support Vector Machine (SVR), Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and k-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) which are combined into an ensemble model named EN-PSO. The weights for EN-SPO was then calculated using Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). The performance of each models were then compared and it was shown that EN-PSO was the best in terms of: MAE (Mean Absolute Error) = 22.085, MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) = 9.1 %, RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) = 31.741 and R2 Coefficient of Determination) = 0.895. In addition, it was also shown that the EN-PSO model was able to improve upon the performance of the MLR model, which the most accurate among the Base models. Comparisons were also made between EN-PSO and other suggested Universal Vs correlations and EN-PSO was shown to outperform the other correlation based on prediction using a modified Test set. Three new empirical correlations as alternative for the EN-PSO model was also presented.

Intrusion Detection Systems (IDS) have been in existence for many years now, but they fall short in efficiently detecting zero-day attacks. This paper presents an organic combination of Semantic Link Networks (SLN) and dynamic semantic graph generation for the on the fly discovery of zero-day attacks using the Spark Streaming platform for parallel detection. In addition, a minimum redundancy maximum relevance (MRMR) feature selection algorithm is deployed to determine the most discriminating features of the dataset. Compared to previous studies on zero-day attack identification, the described method yields better results due to the semantic learning and reasoning on top of the training data and due to the use of collaborative classification methods. We also verified the scalability of our method in a distributed environment.

Introduction: Needless to say that correct and real-time detection and effective prognosis of the COVID-19 are necessary to deliver the best possible care for patients and, accordingly, diminish the pressure on the healthcare industries. Hence our paper aims to present an intelligent algorithm for selecting the best features from the dataset and developing Machine Learning(ML) based models to predict the COVID-19 and finally opted for the best-performing algorithm.&#x0D; Methods: In this developmental study, the clinical data of 1703 COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 patients Using a single-center registry from February 9, 2020, to December 20, 2020, were used. The Minimum Redundancy Maximum Relevance (mRMR) feature selection algorithm identified the most relevant variables. Then, chosen features feed into the several data mining methods, including K-Nearest Neighbors, AdaBoost Classifier, Decision Tree, HistGradient Boosting Classifier, and Support Vector Machine. A 10-fold cross-validation method and six performance evaluation metrics were used to evaluate and compare these implemented algorithms, and finally, the best model was implemented.&#x0D; Results: Out of the 34 included features, 11 variables were selected as the essential features. The results of using ML algorithms indicated that the best performance belongs to the AdaBoost classifier with mean accuracy = 92.9%, mean specificity = 89.3%, mean sensitivity = 94.2%, mean F-measure = 91.6 %, mean KAPA = 94.3% and mean ROC = 92.1 %.&#x0D; Conclusion: The empirical results reveal that the Adaboost model yielded higher performance than other classification models and developed our Clinical Decision Support Systems (CDSS) interface to discriminate positive COVID-19 from negative cases.

Hospital outpatient volume is influenced by a variety of factors, including environmental conditions and healthcare resource availability. Accurate prediction of outpatient demand can significantly enhance operational efficiency and optimize the allocation of medical resources. This study aims to develop a predictive model for daily hospital outpatient volume using the XGBoost algorithm. Meanwhile, the forecasting performance was compared with that of the Seasonal AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average with exogenous regressors (SARIMAX) and Random Forest (RF) models. The dataset comprises daily climate data (e.g., temperature, precipitation, PM2.5 levels), historical outpatient volume records, and the number of outpatient specialists available each day. The data range involved spans from January 1, 2014, to October 31, 2024. Data preprocessing involved addressing missing values and encoding categorical variables. Model performance was assessed using three metrics: Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) , Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and R-squared (R2) metrics. The XGBoost model exhibited superior predictive accuracy compared to both the SARIMAX and RF models, with the lowest MAE, RMSE, MAPE, and the highest R2, successfully capturing key relationships between climate factors, resource availability, and outpatient volume. The number of outpatient specialists, temporal variables (such as year, quarter, month, and weekday), meteorological conditions (average temperature), and air quality (PM2.5) had the most significant impact on the prediction model. This study underscores the potential of machine learning algorithms like XGBoost in effectively predicting hospital outpatient demand. The findings offer valuable insights for hospitals to make proactive adjustments to their resource allocation, thereby improving their service capacity.

With the in-depth implementation of China’s “National Strategy for Building a Strong Transportation Network,” the scale of expressway construction has continued to expand. As a result, the number of high-fill and deep-cut subgrade projects under complex geological conditions has increased significantly, leading to a surge in landslide-related issues. Consequently, accurate prediction of slope displacement is of critical importance for early warning and prevention of landslide disasters. This study proposes a hybrid prediction model, VMD-MPA-LSSVM-LSTM (VMLL), which integrates Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD), Marine Predators Algorithm (MPA), Least Squares Support Vector Machine (LSSVM), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. Using monitoring data from the high-fill embankment slope at Hongtuyao as the research subject, the VMLL model is employed to predict slope displacement based on small-sample data. The objective is to provide a more accurate method for early warning of slope displacement. Firstly, the original monitoring data are decomposed into trend displacement components and fluctuation displacement components using Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD). Subsequently, the trend component and the fluctuation component are predicted using Least Squares Support Vector Machine (LSSVM) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, respectively. Finally, the Marine Predators Algorithm (MPA) is employed to optimize the hyperparameters of the predictive models. Based on this framework, a VMLL-based slope displacement prediction model is constructed. To verify the superiority of the VMLL model, a comparative analysis was conducted against LSSVM, LSTM, and the VMD-LSSVM-LSTM models. The results demonstrate that the VMLL model achieves the highest prediction accuracy, with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 0.4022%, a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.016 mm, a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.0206 mm, a coefficient of determination (R²) of 94.08%, and a Variance Accounted For (VAF) of 96.5%. Compared with the other three models, the VMLL model reduces the MAPE, MAE, and RMSE by 30.41–67.62%, 30.38–67.40%, and 27.32–71.00%, respectively. Meanwhile, it improves the R² and VAF by 5.95–217.51% and 0.38–11.48%, respectively. These improvements clearly demonstrate that the VMLL model outperforms the other models, indicating its significant advantage over single prediction models. Furthermore, three additional datasets were used to evaluate the model’s performance. The average values of the performance evaluation metrics for these datasets were 0.6207% (MAPE), 0.0238 mm(MAE), 0.0273 mm(RMSE), 90.33%(R²), and 96.81%(VAF), respectively. These results demonstrate the high accuracy and strong robustness of the proposed model in predicting both horizontal displacement and vertical settlement of slopes, providing a reliable methodological framework for slope stability assessment and landslide disaster early warning.