Staple food prices in Kenya

The study analyzed the price behavior of major staple foods in West Africa taking Nigeria as a case study (1966 – 2011). It described the trend of the major staple food prices and examined the linear relationship and interdependence of the major staple food prices in Nigeria. Secondary data were used for this study. The sources were; Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), and National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). These data were transformed from their nominal value to real value and analyzed using descriptive statistics, unit root test, Pearson correlation coefficient, granger-causality test and structural equation model. The study revealed that the prices of most of the major staple foods were at the maximum value between 1991 and 1993 while their prices were at the minimum value between 1978 and 1983. The study observed that the price of cowpea is most volatile seconded by maize. The results of the unit root test showed that all the variables studied were stationary. The prices of the major staple foods were linearly correlated; some were positively correlated while some were negatively correlated. Granger-causality test on the major staple foods prices showed that the prices of most staple foods were unidirectional while only few were bi-directional. The study further revealed that the prices of staple foods were interdependent. The study recommends political stability in the country as the major staple food prices reached maximum level during the period of 1993 presidential election crisis.

African Economic Research Consortium (AERC) through the Collaborative Masters of Science in Agricultural and Applied Economics (CMAAE) secretariat

Navigating food price shocks in a pandemic: Food insecurity and coping mechanisms in Burkina Faso

How smallholders may contribute to food and nutrition security remains a key challenge in many developing countries. Despite being the main rural actors, smallholders are frequently the most food insecure, given an array of biophysical and socioeconomic challenges that were addressed during the workshop. These proceedings discuss the potential role of smallholders in food security and in poverty reduction. The opportunities and constraints are assessed, by analysing the availability, access and utilisation of production factors. The key message is that enhancing smallholders’ production capacities and their economic and social resilience may have a positive impact on food security and nutrition at different levels. However, not all smallholders are the same, and assistance strategies need to differentiate between smallholders who should be ‘moving up’ into more productive systems and those who should be ‘moving out’ of farming. The choice should depend on the type of constraints smallholders face. The analysis considers, in addition to the role of small farmers as food suppliers, smallholders’ role as consumers and their level of nutrition security. The link between agriculture and nutrition is analysed to understand how agriculture affects human health and dietary patterns. Given the importance of smallholdings, strategies to increase productivity in agriculture are essential to improve food and nutrition security, as is food diversity. Finally, synergies and trade-offs between economic, environmental and social objectives and outcomes are analysed through an overview of the methods and tools used to assess food security on small farms at household level. Models at country level are usually focused on long-term conditions, but short-term analyses would also be welcome. Developing global models to assess food security is also relevant, to include trade issues in the analysis. Models at farm household level in developing countries have a valuable role to play in the analysis of the impact of any policy on small farmers.

One of the most important impacts of the Covid 19 pandemic that broke out in China in the last months of 2019 was on the agricultural sector and, consequently, on the food supply. This situation manifested itself in an increase in food insecurity and food prices in countries around the world, and rising food prices highlighted the risk of undernourishment. The study attempted to statistically represent the impact of the pandemic on food security and food price increases in countries around the world. The study first compared the pre-pandemic and pandemic periods in terms of three basic indicators, such as food security, food prices, and undernourishment rates, and examined whether there was a significant difference between the two periods. Within the context of these three indicators, an attempt was then made to determine whether the negative impact of the pandemic was more severe in low-income countries. The results of the analysis showed that food prices, food insecurity, and undernourishment increased during the pandemic and that these impacts were relatively greater in developing countries. Therefore, the financial burden of these negative impacts associated with food supply was greater in developing countries.

The European Commission (EC) unveiled its Farm to Fork and Biodiversity Strategies that would impose restrictions on European Union (EU) agriculture through targeted reductions in the use of land, fertilizers, antimicrobials, and pesticides. The proposal also pledges to use EC trade policies and other international efforts to support this vision of sustainable agri-food systems, suggesting intentions to expand the reach of the policy beyond the EU. To examine the economic implications of the proposal, we performed a range of policy simulations on several of the proposed targets using three progressively broader adoption scenarios of the EC’s initiative. Under all these scenarios, we found that the proposed input reductions affect EU farmers by reducing their agricultural production by 7 to 12 percent and diminishing their competitiveness in both domestic and export markets. Moreover, we found that adoption of these strategies would have impacts that stretch beyond the EU, driving up worldwide food prices by 9 (EU only adoption) to 89 percent (global adoption), negatively affecting consumer budgets, and ultimately reducing worldwide societal welfare by $96 billion to $1.1 trillion, depending on how widely other countries adopt the strategies. We estimate that the higher food prices under these scenarios would increase the number of food-insecure people in the world’s most vulnerable regions by 22 million (EU only adoption) to 185 million (global adoption).

Food insecurity is a global issue, with higher prevalence of hunger in developing countries. Low crop yield and food production - due to difficult topography and traditional farming methods - combined with lower income; fluctuations in prices and supply, and low quality of food have been causing food insecurity in Nepal. This research examines food (in)security situation in Upper-Mustang, Nepal. The results are derived from the data collected through face–to-face interviews with the heads of 66 households, in-depth interviews conducted with 22 key informants, and discussions with the group of local people in different (6) places. The household food system was studied from livelihood perspectives and food (in)security was assessed in relation to self-sufficiency or production sufficiency, access, utilization, and stability of food. Households in the Trans-Himalaya acquire food from multiple sources such as farming and livestock ranching, buy food from the market, and also receive food aid for the sake of survival during the food crisis. Food security situation in terms of self-production in Upper-Mustang is at worst stage that many households are facing severe to chronic food insecurity. Studied households access marketed food, though the price they pay is very high. The worrisome issue is that there is no significant improvement in food security situation over time in the Trans-Himalaya. Study found that not the household size but dependency ratio in the household increases food insecurity. On the other hand, quality of farmland in terms of cropping intensity and availability of irrigation rather than the farm-plot size contribute for food security. The issue of food security is still a valid development policy goal for Nepal in general and for the Trans-Himalaya in particular. Accordingly, food security interventions are important. Yet, policy for interventions should look into all components of food systems, particularly providing irrigation, promoting local food varieties, and provisioning for food subsidies and food aid together with subsidies in food transport.

Household capacities, vulnerabilities and food insecurity: Shifts in food insecurity in urban and rural Ethiopia during the 2008 food crisis

The 2008 Food Price Crisis Negatively Affected Household Food Security and Dietary Diversity in Urban Burkina Faso ,

In most of the developing countries, lack of resources and little market accessibility are among the major factors that affect small farming household food security. This study aims to investigate the status of small farming households’ food security, and its determinants including the role of market accessibility factors in enhancing food security at household level. In addition, this study also determines the households’ perception about different kinds of livelihoods risks. This study is based on a household survey of 576 households conducted through face-to-face interviews using structured interviews in Punjab, Pakistan. Food security status is calculated using dietary intake method. The study findings show that one-fourth of the households are food insecure. The study findings reveal that farm households perceive increase in food prices, crop diseases, lack of irrigation water and increase in health expenses as major livelihood risks. Further, the results of logistic regression show that family size, monthly income, food prices, health expenses and debt are main factors influencing the food security status of rural households. Furthermore, the market accessibility factors (road distance and transportation cost) do significantly affect the small farming household food security. The results suggest that local food security can be enhanced by creating off-farm employment opportunities, improved transportation facilities and road infrastructure.

Conflict, Food Price Shocks, and Food Insecurity: The Experience of Afghan Households

Galamsey, a popular name for small-scale mining in Ghana, is an important livelihood for many rural Ghanaians. Although concerns have been raised in the popular media about the adverse effects of galamsey on the environment, human health, and livelihoods, there is a representational paucity of evidence regarding its links with local food systems, particularly, from the perspective of affected mining communities. The current study explored community perceptions and experiences of galamsey and its perceived effects on food security and livelihoods in the East Akim Municipality in the Eastern region of Ghana. Primary data was collected in the East Akim Municipality of Ghana, using a photovoice method. Thirty-six male and female adults were purposively selected with the help of a community focal persons and advertisements in the study communities. Respondents participated in a one-day photography training and thereafter, were deployed to take at least fifteen photos that portray the effect of galamsey on food security and health. Subsequently, each participant was asked to select five of the photographs they have taken and explain why they captured that image. A photo exhibition was held to facilitate community conversation and perspectives on the effects of galamsey on food and nutrition security. Galamsey has resulted in degradation of, otherwise, fertile agricultural land, and contamination of freshwater sources. As a consequence, there is reduced cultivable land, reduced crop production, shortage of essential staple foods, increase in food price, and increased consumption of ultra-processed foods. There is also perception of increased exposure to heavy metals like mercury in locally-produced food. Given the adverse health consequences of both food and nutrition insecurity, and increased consumption of processed foods, it is important that public and policy discussions to minimize the effects of galamsey in Ghana should include considerations about food and nutrition insecurity in mining communities. Key words: mining, galamsey, food security, health, agriculture, land degradation, food system

The world’s population faces serious challenges related to food security, particularly in the agribusiness sector, as it grapples with dependence on mineral fertilizers in key producing regions, susceptible to tariff policy fluctuations and wars, amid climate change and population growth, despite increased food production enabled by new technologies and management practices. This narrative review synthesizes evidence on the main challenges to food security in Brazil, with emphasis on how agricultural production, land use, and mineral fertilizer dependence interact under global climate change. We employed comprehensive literature review methods and analyzed data from national and international agencies to compile relevant information on the influence of this scenario on agricultural production, providing an overview of the topic to understand trends and future projections of these challenges. The results revealed significant vulnerabilities in the sector, especially concerning reliance on imported mineral fertilizers to meet its full demand. In 2024, Brazil imported approximately 90% of the mineral fertilizers used in its agricultural sector, which heightens exposure to geopolitical and market shocks. Moreover, climate change also negatively impacts agriculture, raising production costs and prices of staple foods, thereby exacerbating food insecurity. Therefore, improving fertilizer use efficiency and adopting alternative fertilization sources, combined with conservation practices, represent key strategies to mitigate food insecurity. Among these strategies, reducing import dependence through improved fertilizer use efficiency emerges as the most immediately actionable priority, as it could reduce current demand by 20–30% within 5 years. This should be complemented by medium-term investments in alternative fertilizer sources and long-term climate adaptation measures. These actions can also support the promotion of sustainable development goals aligned with the United Nations’ 2030 Agenda. Aligning fertilizer strategies with climate-smart and low-carbon agriculture policies could simultaneously reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance the resilience of food systems.

This paper investigated how sensitive food price is to changes in petroleum price and exchange rate in Ghana from January 1997 to August 2017. Interest rate was included as a control variable in the study since it may be a useful macroeconomic policy tool. Using Johansen cointegration procedure, Vector Error Correction Model, Impulse Response Functions and BEKK-GARCH estimations, the results of the study showed there exist positive long-run and short-run relationships between food prices and all the macroeconomic variables used in the model. Thus, increases in petroleum price, exchange rate and interest rate raise food prices in Ghana. The magnitudes of these increases were found to be very high during the food crises periods in 2007/08 and 2010/11. It was also found that effects of these food price spikes caused by shocks from petroleum price, exchange rate and interest rate are long lasting and do not decay easily with time. The results from the BEKK-GARCH estimation showed that food prices in Ghana exhibit time-varying volatility; caused by its own ARCH and GARCH effects as well as exogenously determined shocks from petroleum price, exchange rate and interest rate. Also, the results indicated that food price volatility shocks in Ghana are persistent. It is recommended that; policy aimed at food price stabilization must build national petroleum buffer stocks to stabilize fuel prices, improve exchange rate and interest rate management, build district, regional and national food buffer stocks, selectively target fuel subsidy at crop farmers and food processors, and remove bottlenecks in food marketing.

Development of a Tribally-led Gardening Curriculum for Indigenous Preschool Children: The FRESH Study