State economic policy: system modeling of structural organization

The study of the features of the formation and implementation of the state economic policy is aimed at the analysis of the current state of the organization, the stage and perspective of development, the normative support of the national economic policy, and the identification of the advantages and disadvantages of the specified policy. The relevance of the study of the state economic policy lies in the fact that in the conditions of globalization and European integration it is necessary to activate theoretical and practical research in order to solve the most important and priority problems of the country. The subject of the study is the state economic policy of Ukraine from the point of view of its transformation with the current challenges of economic interests of the society. This understanding of the problem has led to the formulation of the research objective: theoretical substantiation of the content, principles, model and regulation of economic policy, taking into account the transitivity of the national economic system. The theoretical and methodological basis of the study is the dialectical method of cognition and systematic approach to the study of the problems of state economic policy and its transitivity; scientific works of domestic and foreign scientists based on the application of the abstract-logical method, systematic approach, critical legal approach, etc. It is established that the state economic policy is a component of the general political process, an integral system of measures of the state influence on the economy, the effectiveness of which is manifested in the interconnection of its elements. The transitory nature of the state economic policy, based on the ability of the national economy to expand self-reproduction to meet the needs of the population and the state, and on the other hand, the ability to withstand the destabilizing factors caused by Russia's military aggression against Ukraine, allows to talk about the formation of a new vector of development of the state economic policy of Ukraine. The issues that should be taken into account by public authorities when developing and implementing the State economic policy under martial law are outlined. The need for further research on the institutional foundations of the theoretical approach to justifying the definition of the state economic policy and highlighting the main positions of its constructive formation is substantiated. Results. The essence and separate components of the state economic policy are revealed, in particular, the principles of policy formation and the model of the national economy. The priority areas, which should be considered in the development of the state economic policy, were determined. Certain problems of implementation of the economic policy in the conditions of martial law were identified. The peculiarities of the normative consolidation of the state economic policy of Ukraine are pointed out. Recommendations on improvement of the development of the state economic policy are given.

The purpose of the article is to substantiate the concept of building the policy of the crisis management of state-owned enterprises in modern development conditions according of reform vector. Research methodology. The theoretical and methodological basis of the study is a systematic approach to the study of the fundamental provisions of the formation of an anti-crisis management policy of an enterprise. To achieve this goal, a system of general scientific and special methods was used, namely: methods of logical generalization and comparison for the formation of the architectonics of the crisis management policy of a state enterprise with an emphasis on the preventive stage of its implementation; methods of analysis, synthesis and generalization - to study the content of policy components and scorecards; abstract method - for the formulation of research findings. The results of the study. Reasonably conceptual approach to building a crisis management policy at a state enterprise. Clarified the definition of the concept of crisis management. The prerequisites that cause crisis phenomena are systematized: a state of imbalance in economic activity, bifurcation points and information asymmetry. Recommended architectonics of crisis management policy of a state-owned enterprise with an emphasis on the preventive stage of its implementation. The main components of the proposed policy are characterized. Justified necessity of monitoring and controlling the calculation of indicators of economic activity in the following areas: finance, economic efficiency, non-financial indicators and immeasurable factors that contribute to unstable conditions of the enterprise. To overcome crisis, policy provides for second stage, which has a comprehensive approach to overcoming crisis (macroeconomic and microeconomic). The scientific novelty consists in substantiating concept of building policy of crisis management of state enterprise in crisis situation, which provides permanent monitoring of indicators of economic activity and timely identification of crisis conditions. The practical significance of results. The current policy of crisis management at a state-owned enterprise will allow analyzing the results of economic activities to prevent occurrence of crisis conditions and their management, if any. The effect will be the possibility of periodically calculating the overall efficiency of economic and financial activities in accordance with the strategic goal, business conditions and state economic policy.

Inflation is a well-known and at the same time still insufficiently explained phenomenon of the socio-economic life of any country. This fact is related to the complexity and uncertain of the problem of inflation processes, as well as the fact that the essence of inflation evolves in time and changes in space, depending on the specific economic and political conditions in which the state finds itself. The investigation implemented a model of inflationary processes of Ukraine based on longitudinal data. Average wage index, industrial production index, regional volumes of foreign trade in goods and unemployment rate were used as factor variables for the model. Input information on the factor variables and the consumer price index as the resulting variable was collected across the regions of Ukraine for the period 2000–2020. After conducting a series of tests (Durbin-Wu-Hausman test and Wald test), the model was specified as a longitudinal data model with cross-sectional fixed effects. For such a model, it was necessary to apply the panel estimated generalized least squares method (panel EGLS), which is based on the assumed inequality of variance and therefore provides the opportunity to obtain the best linear estimates. After evaluating the unknown parameters of the model, namely the scalar coefficients, industrial production index, unemployment rate, average wage index, regional volumes of foreign trade in goods, we obtained the following values, respectively: 113.1856, 0.017839, -0.083791, -0.017515, -0.007895. In general, the quality assessment of the model gives good results. We can definitely state that the relationship between the consumer price index is close to, because the determination ratio is close to 1. Based on this, it is obvious that on average in the regions of Ukraine, 99.39% of changes in the consumer price index are explained by changes in the values of the average wage index wages, the index of industrial production, the size of regional volumes of foreign trade in goods and the level of unemployment. And the calculated value of the F-statistic exceeds the empirical value so the model adequately describes such a dependence. In general, the proposed panel model of inflationary processes of Ukraine has good quality indicators and is suitable and can be used for forecasting inflation at the regional level.

Introduction. The economic development of any society is determined by its needs, so when analyzing long-term changes in the economic system, attention is focused on the parameters of social welfare. People's perception of the level of their well-being is historically determined and depends on the prevailing criteria for assessing human well-being at a particular time and place. In modern Ukraine, the level and standards of living of the population does not meet world standards of living, the level of real incomes of many citizens is extremely low, economic and social differentiation between rich and poor is extremely high. In this regard, improving public welfare is the central task of the state in the formation and implementation of economic policy. The purpose of the article is to study the state economic policy as a tool to improve the social welfare system. Results. Models of state influence on public welfare are considered: liberal, neoclassical, neo-Keynesian ("welfare state", social market economy). The study of models of state influence on public welfare allowed to determine the directions of state intervention: external effects, production of public goods, influence on asymmetric information, leveling of cyclical fluctuations, policy of support and growth of incomes, protection of competition. The legal framework for the formation of social standards in our country is not developed. The priority tasks of the state in the fight against poverty have been identified. Recommendations for further development of social partnership are given. Conclusions. The state takes a number of measures aimed at ensuring the growth of social and individual well-being at both the national and regional levels. At the same time, the measures taken are often ineffective due to the lack of the main basis in the mechanism of improving welfare - the goal of meeting the specific needs of the individual and society. It is based on needs that the minimum wage, the level of pensions and scholarships and other social standards should be determined. Collective and social needs must be taken into account in the distribution of both corporate profits and state budget revenues. The focus of public policy to meet needs will increase its effectiveness. Key words: social welfare, poverty, state economic policy, social policy.

The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of a variety of macroeconomic indicators on the investment decisions of manufacturing firms. Key macroeconomic indicators such as GDP growth rate, interest rate, consumer price index (CPI), purchasing managers' index (PMI), employment rate, industrial production index (PPI), money supply (M2), and imports are analyzed to assess their impacts on manufacturing firms' capital expenditures. A multiple linear regression model is used to empirically analyze the data from Chinese manufacturing firms. The results of the study show that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Industrial Production Index (PPI) have a significant negative effect on the capital expenditures of manufacturing firms, while the increase in the money supply (M2) has a positive effect on capital expenditures. Changes in the GDP growth rate and the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) also affect the investment decisions of manufacturing firms. In particular, an increase in foreign trade imports promotes capital expenditures by export-oriented manufacturing firms. This paper analyzes in-depth the impact mechanism of macroeconomic indicators on the investment of manufacturing companies to provide a reference for the investment decisions of enterprises in different economic environments. At the same time, this study also provides an important basis for policy makers to help formulate and adjust economic policies to support the development of the manufacturing industry and stable economic growth. The results of the study have important theoretical and practical significance for understanding the impact of macroeconomic environment on the investment behavior of enterprises.

<p>The Indonesian economy during the global pandemic entered the brink of economic recession. This problem occurs because the state of public consumption has decreased due to the limited space for community movement and sluggish economic activities due to preventing the transmission of Covid-19. This affects the decline in public consumption in economic activities. In this case, it can be seen from the statistical news published by the official website of the Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) which reports that the inflation rate in the previous months was around 0.10%, while in April 2020 it decreased by 0.08%. Based on these, a <em>K</em>-means grouping study was conducted by dividing the cluster into 3 parts and modeling using multiple regression methods. In this study, the variable used was the price index. The results of the <em>K</em>-means cluster analysis with the division of 3 clusters, namely cluster 3 (high CPI cluster) consisting of 66 cities, cluster 1 (moderate CPI cluster) consisting of 2 cities, and cluster 2 (low CPI cluster) consisting of 22 cities. Furthermore, the multiple regression results obtained 12 variables that have a significant effect on the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The results of regression modeling are the highest coefficient is food at 0.236 and the lowest coefficients are cigarettes and tobacco at 0.008. Therefore can be concluded that the grouping of the CPI indicator obtained 75% of cities with high index prices, especially in big cities such that economic activity, in general, was still consumptive during the pandemic and multiple regression modeling resulted from 37 indicator variables, only 12 indicator variables had a significant effect on the CPI.</p><strong>Keywords: </strong><em>k</em>-means, CPI, multiple regression, and price index

Objective. The purpose of the article is to study the current trends in the development of the domestic coke chemical industry and to determine further prospects that will contribute to further transformational processes and the formation of effective economic policy in this area. Method. The choice of research methods is determined by the complex nature of the work. Among them: graphic, statistical analysis, comparison, detailing, analysis and synthesis, which in the complex will make it possible to assess the situation in the industry and to form ways of solving the identified problems in a timely manner. The results. As a result of the study of the current trends in the development of the domestic coke chemical industry (based on the analysis of the main indicators in the dynamics), it was established that the production of products has decreased significantly, and the situation in the industry is characterized as a crisis. A complex of factors that negatively affected the volume of industrial production is characterized. It was noted that some of them are related to the lack of raw materials, the obsolescence of the material and technical base, a decrease in demand from customers, a low level of innovation and investment activity, and a low level of product competitiveness. Attention was drawn to the fact that the company suffered significant losses due to damage or partial destruction due to the large-scale military invasion of Russia, disruption of logistics and destruction of energy infrastructure due to missile strikes and shelling of the territory of Ukraine by the aggressor country. The dependence of the functioning of enterprises on the situation on the world markets of coking coal and coke is indicated. The main influencing factors are characterized. It was noted that despite the acute problems faced by coke-chemical enterprises today, domestic production has a certain potential for development on a new technological basis. Emphasis is placed on the need for transformations in the industry. Prospective directions for the development of the industry have been formed, which will contribute to such processes and the formation of effective economic policy in this area. The information base of the study was the data of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the GMK.- center, research by consulting companies regarding the development of the situation in the world markets of steel, coking coal and coke, regulatory and legal documents and documents of the state authorities of Ukraine, which made it possible to confirm the need for post-war development of the industry. Scientific novelty. On the basis of the conducted research and as a result of the isolated problems occurring in the coke-chemical industry, the directions of its development as a whole and coke-chemical enterprises as its components are proposed, which will allow to restore stable functioning and form an effective economic policy in this area in the conditions of post-war recovery. Practical significance. The results of the research on the development of the domestic coke industry have practical value. They make it possible to better understand the peculiarities of economic, technical and technological processes in this area, to understand the place of the country in the global coke markets, to determine the nature of existing problems, their depth and scale, which is useful in the implementation of transformational processes, the formation of effective state economic policy and industry development strategies

This study was conducted to assess the behaviour of the Islamic stock market towards the changes in the economic indicators in Malaysia. The variables involved were the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Emas Shariah Index (FBMES) which was a proxy to the Islamic Stock Market. The independent variables used were the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Islamic Banking Interbank Rate (IIR), Money Supply (M3) Islamic Unit Trust (IUT) and the Industrial Production Index (IPI).This study utilized the standard Vector Autoregressive (VAR) estimation model with monthly data from January 2007 to December 2017. The findings showed that there was a long-term relationship between Islamic stock market with the Islamic unit trust and the industrial production index. Based on the test results of the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), the Islamic stock market was not influenced by any of the selected macroeconomic variables. However, the study found that the FBMES variables were significant in shaping the Granger's short-term impact on changes in Islamic interbank rate (IIR) and money supply (M3) variables. As such, this study proved that the Islamic stock market index and the macroeconomic variables could influence one another.

Purpose: Nowadays, the changes in the level of economic activities in the housing market are accepted as the most important signal of macroeconomic performance. This situation brings about the need to give importance to the investigation of policy implementations that affect economic activity in the housing market. So, this study aims to find out the effects of changes in the monetary policy on housing prices in Turkey as a sample of developing country. Design/methodology/approach: This study employed Augmented Vector Autoregression (VAR) analysis. For housing prices; the Housing Unit price series, calculated by the Central Bank, spanning 2010M1-2016M3 are used. Housing unit price is calculated by Housing price per square meter. To represent production volume, the index of total industrial production has been used. To represent inflation series, CPU (Consumer Price Index) series have been used. The data has been taken from CBRT (the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey) and TUIK (Turkish Statistical Institute). Findings: Results show that policy interest rates are important indicators for the related term?s housing prices and it can also be said that the housing price channel has partially been effective. Accordingly, results determined that monetary policy had a significant effect on housing prices in Turkish housing market. Originality/value: This study supports the argument that monetary policy has a significant effect on housing prices in developing countries like Turkey.

The article discusses an ontological approach to solving the problem of forming state policy of economic development of cultural and creative industries and the corresponding intellectual-information management systems. The purpose of this article is to develop an effective toolkit (based on ontologies) for making optimal decisions in the field of state regulation of the cultural and creative industries, taking into account the dynamic factors of the external environment. The ontological approach considered in the article assumes the presence of three levels of models: meta-ontology, models of subject areas of cultural and creative industries and models of making appropriate management decisions on the formation of economic development policy of cultural and creative industries. The novelty of the proposed approach lies in the purposeful nature of ontological modeling of such complex system as the state policy of economic development of cultural and creative industries. The system under consideration has certain goals, tasks, resources, processes, factors of influence, risks and other characteristics. These characteristics include, in particular, the structure of the model, the ability to highlight the essential objects of real relations of the considered subject areas, the ability to represent knowledge for the joint work of specialists in computer modeling, the processing of expert knowledge and the generation of management decisions within the framework of the corresponding intellectual-information systems.

Koronavirüs (COVID-19), 2019 yılının Ocak ayında ortaya çıkmış ve tüm dünyayı etkisi altına almıştır. COVID-19 ülkeleri sadece sağlık anlamında değil, sosyal, siyasi ve ekonomik birçok alanda etkilemiştir. Ülkeler bu durum karşısında birçok önlem almış, ancak bu önlemler ülkelerin ekonomilerinde yıkıcı etkiler meydana getirmiştir. Pandemi nedeniyle oluşan küresel kriz, ekonomik faaliyetlerin azalmasına ve alınan önlemler enflasyon oranında artışa sebep olmuştur. Enflasyon oranında artışın meydana gelmesi ile birlikte ülkelerin sanayi üretim endeksi önemli ölçüde etkilenmiştir. Bu bağlamda bu çalışmada amaç, COVID-19 ile birlikte enflasyonda meydana gelen artışın sanayi üretim endeksi üzerindeki etkisini incelemektir. Bu amaçla çalışmada, içinde Türkiye’nin de bulunduğu, vaka sayısı en yüksek olan ülkeler arasından 19 ülke ele alınmıştır. Bu ülkeler Belçika(BEL), Kanada(CAN), Fransa(FRA), Almanya(DEU), İtalya(ITL), Japonya(JPN), Hollanda(NLD), Polonya (POL), Portekiz(PRT), İsviçre(SWE), Türkiye(TR), İngiltere(GBR), ABD, Brezilya(BRA), Şile(CHL), İsrail(ISR), Rusya(RUS), Meksika (MEX) ve Güney Afrika (ZAF) ülkeleridir. Çalışmada Mart 2020-Aralık 2020 döneminde aylık veriler ele alınmış ve mekânsal yayılma etkisi de göz önünde bulundurularak, Mekânsal Panel Veri Modelleri ile analizler gerçekleştirilmiştir. Mekânsal panel veri modelinden elde edilen sonuçlar, enflasyon ve COVID-19’un sanayi üretim endeksi üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı etkiye sahip olduğunu, COVID-19 vaka sayısında meydana gelen artışın, sanayi üretim endeksini %1 oranında azalttığını göstermektedir. Enflasyon ve COVID-19 değişkenleri sanayi üretim endeksini yaklaşık % 50 oranında açıklamaktadır

Purpose: The stock market performance is the function of the current and future level of economic activity. In view of this, the study examines the short-run and long-run association between Asian emerging stock markets and their economic fundamentals. Design/Methodology/Approach: The sample size of the study consists of nine Asian emerging stock markets namely China, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Taiwan and Thailand and their macroeconomic determinants such as Consumer Price Index (CPI), Export, Import, Exchange Rate (Forex), Industrial Production Index (IP), Broad Money Supply (MS) and Short-term Interest Rate (IR). Each stock market is investigated using the Johansen Cointegration test and Vector Error Correction Causality/Block Exogeneity Wald test. The study used monthly data observations from January 2000 to August 2019. Findings: The cointegration result provided incremental information on the long-run relationship between stock prices and macroeconomic variables. However, the causality between stock prices and macroeconomic variables are considerably limited in the short-run. Practical Implications: The insight on the linkages between stock prices and economic fundamentals will provide the opportunity for short-run and long-run investment decisions in the Asian emerging stock markets. Originality/Value: The result of this study would amplify the understanding on the extent of integration between Asian emerging stock markets and macroeconomic variables. This would be a significant incentive to figure out a risk-reward opportunity from these markets.

Real Macro Economic Variables and Stock Prices: Test of Proxy Hypothesis in Turkey

본 연구는 거시경제 및 비 거시경제변수가 항공운송업의 경영성과에 미치는 영향을 분석하여 경영자에게 유용한 정보를 제공하는데 그 목적이 있다. 이를 위해 1991년부터 2011년까지의 거시경제지표인 회사 채수익률, 유가, 실업률, 통화량, 무역수지, 원/달러 환율, 소비자물가지수, 산업생산성지수와 경영성과 지표인 총자산순이익률을 사용하여 선형회귀분석을 실시하였다. 그 결과 환율 변동은 정의 유의적인 영향을, 소비자물가지수 증가율은 부의 유의적인 영향을 총자산순이익률 변동에 미친 것으로 나타났다. 또한 거시경제변수의 위험성을 통제하는 비 거시경제변수의 영향력을 파악하기 위해 비 거시경제변수로 대만 대지진, 아시아 경제 위기, 미국 911테러, 이라크 전쟁, 베이징 올림픽, 신종 플루 발병, 대통령 선거(1차), 대통령 선거(2차)을 축출하여 유의적인 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타난 환율 변동과 소비자물가지수 증가율을 함께 사용하여 선형회귀분석을 실시하였다. 분석 결과 아시아 경제 위기와 신종 플루 발병은 총자산순이익률 변동에 부의 유의적인 영향을 미친 것으로 나타났다. 그 외에 대만 대지진, 미국 911테러, 이라크 전쟁, 베이징 올림픽, 1,2 차 대통령 선거는 총자산순이익률 변동에 통계적으로 유의적인 영향을 미치지 않는 것으로 나타났으나 이라크 전쟁을 제외한 다른 변수들은 부의 관계가 있는 것으로 나타났다. 항공운송업의 경영자들은 거시경제변수가 통제가 어려운 변수이긴 하지만 거시경제변수와 거시경제변수의 위험성을 통제하는 비 거시경제변수의 변화를 주의 깊게 관찰하고 분석한다면 경영성과를 극대화 시키는데 도움이 될 것이다. The purpose of this study is to analyse the impact of macroeconomic and non-macroeconomic forces on the management performance of the air transport firms and offer the useful information to the managers. To conduct the regression analysis, eight macroeconomic and non-macroeconomic variables were selected individually as an independent variable. Macroeconomic variables were the return of corporate bond, West Texas Intermediate, the unemployment rate, the money supply, the trade balance, the won to USD exchange rate, the consumer price index and the index of industrial production. And non-macroeconomic variables were Taiwan earthquake, the Asian economic crisis, the 911 terrorist attacks in the US, the Iraq war, Beijing Olympic, the outbreak of a swine flu epidemic, the 1st presidential election and the 2nd presidential election. And ROA was selected as a dependent variable. As the result of analysis, it was found that the changing rates of won to USD exchange rate and consumer price index affected the changing rate of ROA significantly. And also as the result of analysing the impact of two significant macroeconomic variables and eight non-macroeconomic variables on the changing rate of ROA, it was found that the Asian economic crisis and the outbreak of a swine flu epidemic had a negative impact on it. Therefore managers should take note of a change in macroeconomic and non-macroeconomic variables carefully to improve the management performance.

The variables the consumer price index (CPI), the producer price index (PPI) and the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) and play major roles in economic forecasting. The overall objective of this study is to assess the inter-relationships between CPI, PPI and PMI as predicting variables. This study is quantitative in nature and employed an ARDL econometric model, error correction model (ECM) and Granger causality approaches to establish long and short-run relationships. The ARDL method was used due to the fact that the variables had a mix of stationarity at levels I (0) and the first difference I (1). Quarterly datasets were obtained from Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) and the Bureau of Economic Research (BER) for the period 2000 to 2017. Results from the estimations discovered that variables cointegrate in the long-run. Additionally, evidence of short-run relationships has been determined using ECM. Furthermore, causal relationships were also analysed with results indicating that CPI causes PMI and PPI causes PMI. The implication of the research is the confirmation of the importance of relationships between CPI, PPI and PMI, which is especially significant in the short-run and the three index indicators are important macro-economic indicators for changes in overall economic activity on a macro level.