Statistical analysis of vessel loss of command frequency

Maritime vessel movement prediction: A temporal convolutional network model with optimal look-back window size determination

Identifying illegal fishing activities from Automatic Identification System (AIS) data is difficult since AIS messages are broadcast cooperatively, the ship’s master controls the timing, and the content of the transmission and the activities of interest usually occur far away from the shore. This paper presents our work to predict ship types using AIS data from satellites: in such data, there is a pronounced imbalance between the data for different types of ships, the refresh rate is relatively low, and there is a misreporting of information. To mitigate these issues, our prediction algorithm only uses the sequence of ports the ships visited, as inferred from the positions reported in AIS messages. Experiments involving multiple machine learning algorithms showed that such port visits are informative features when inferring ship type. In particular, this was shown to be the case for the fishing vessels, which is the focus of this paper. We then applied a KD-tree to efficiently identify pairs of ships that are close to one another. As this activity is usually dangerous, multiple occurrences of such encounters that are linked to one ship sensibly motivate extra attention. As a result of applying the analysis approach to a month of AIS data related to a large area in Southeast Asia, we identified 17 cases of potentially illegal behaviours.

Automatic Identification System (AIS) provides abundant near real-time information of moving vessels in the sea of the whole world and has been widely used in the fields of vessel collision avoidance, Maritime Situation Awareness (MSA) and ocean surveillance. The development of satellite-based AIS further expands the range of AIS and enables a wide converge of AIS data collection, which solves the problem of lacking AIS data in high-seas. At the same time, AIS data provides a rich source for data mining for maritime traffic analysis. In this paper, a typical clustering algorithm called K-means is applied to deal with the Space-based AIS(S-AIS) data received by “TianTuo-3” satellite developed by National University of Defense Technology. We use Elbow Rule to determine the optimal number of clusters and calculate the normalized standard deviation of COG(Course Over Ground) and SOG(Speed Over Ground) of vessels in south Africa area as their features to conduct clustering. This method is supposed to evaluate vessels' sailing stability and used in detection of low-likelihood behaviors or anomalies of vessels.

Oil tanker traffic constitutes a vital part of the maritime operations in the High North and is associated with considerable risk to the environment. As a consequence, the Norwegian Coastal Administration (NCA) administers a number of vessel traffic services (VTS) centers along the Norwegian coast, one of which is located in the town of Vardo, in the extreme northeast part of Norway. The task of the operators at the VTS center in Vardo is to command a fleet of tug vessels patrolling the northern Norwegian coastline such that the risk of oil tanker drifting accidents is reduced. Currently, these operators do not use computer algorithms or mathematical models to solve this dynamic resource allocation problem but rely on their own knowledge and experience when faced with constantly changing weather and traffic conditions. We therefore propose a novel sustainable model called the receding horizon mixed integer programming (RHMIP) model for optimal dynamic allocation of patrol vessels to oil tankers. The model combines features from model predictive control and linear programming. Simulations run with real-world parameters highlight the performance and quality of our method. The developed RHMIP model can be implemented as an operational decision support tool to the NCA.

Maritime traffic pattern extraction is a fundamental and crucial factor for maritime surveillance and anomaly detection. Emerging technologies like Automatic Identification System (AIS) provides multi-dimensional data which is used to construct a maritime traffic model. In this paper, we propose a framework of maritime traffic pattern extraction from vessel AIS information, which learns a traffic pattern using an unsupervised technique, and can be applied on historical Automatic Identification System data. AIS data is a kind of spatio-temporal data that contains information of location data, as well as time stamps. In this way, traffic pattern is described by AIS data. Furthermore, we conduct a simulation experiment that extracts traffic pattern from the AIS data through the unsupervised technique. The proposed framework takes advantage of AIS data, which is a type of the spatiotemporal data that consists of vessel motion information, to perform the experiment. The result shows that the unsupervised framework converts useful information from raw AIS data to effective traffic pattern. The proposed method strongly supports the further research on maritime traffic pattern extraction of AIS data. Besides, an overview of the framework and the unsupervised technique for high-level maritime situation awareness is presented.

To address ship-sourced water pollutant issues resulting from shipping industry growth and achieve precise supervision and effective management in coastal ports, this study develops a method for calculating and predicting the generation volume of oily sewage, domestic sewage and solid waste based on Automatic Identification System (AIS) data. First, a questionnaire survey (“Survey on Ship Water Pollutants”) is designed and implemented. Through analysis of questionnaire data, the ranges of values for the generation of oily sewage, domestic sewage, and solid waste from different ship types at China’s coastal ports are established. Additionally, onboard sampling is conducted to determine average emission factors for domestic sewage and oily sewage from typical ship types. Second, ship activities are derived from AIS data and combined with the established generation volume ranges for spatiotemporal calculation. Finally, a ConvLSTM (Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory) model is developed to predict the generation volume of water pollutant based on their spatiotemporal characteristics. Taking a major Chinese port area as a case study, the results indicate that pollutant generation volumes are significant in coastal port zones and main navigation channels, particularly between 15:00 and 16:00. chemical oxygen demand (COD), suspended solids (SS), and 5-day biochemical oxygen demand (BOD5) levels in domestic sewage exceeded China’s national regulatory limits by 0.35 times, 2.88 times and 1.07 times, respectively, which can easily lead to a decrease in dissolved oxygen content in the water, affecting the respiration and survival of aquatic organisms. Petroleum content in oily sewage remained below the standard threshold. For pollutant generation volume prediction, the proposed ConvLSTM model achieved MAE and RMSE values of 0.0824 and 0.1433, respectively, outperforming other prediction models such as LSTM and CNN-LSTM. This research provides technical support for the prevention and control of water pollution from ships in coastal ports. The proposed AIS-driven framework and ConvLSTM prediction method are transferable and globally applicable, offering a reference for the environmental sustainability of port ecosystems, the global maritime pollution prevention, and the sustainable development of the shipping industry worldwide.

In order to study the ship traffic flow in LaoTieshan channel, this paper rewrites the rules of NS (Nagel-Schreckenberg) model of Cellular Automata (CA) based on AIS（Automatic Identification System） data. By referring to the idea of synchronous flow in three-phase traffic flow theory and introducing the speed adaptation mechanism into the simulation, the new model reproduces the traffic flow of LaoTieshan channel and gets the relevant fundamental diagrams. Compared with the actual flow-density diagram drawn from AIS data, it is found that the simulated flow generated by the improved model is more in line with the actual condition, and also conforms to the phase transition of traffic flow in LaoTieshan channel. The method and idea of the simulation are helpful to explain and investigate some complex situations in LaoTieshan channel.

This study is conducted to develop a comprehensive ship emission inventory in Strait of Malacca and Singapore (SOMAS) based on Automatic Identification System (AIS) data using the bottom-up method. With spatiotemporal analysis on the maritime traffic in SOMAS, it is implied that limited space and dense, complex shipping routes had created hindrances to the local traffic. Gaussian approach Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) is adopted to find the hotspot of the traffic and emission in SOMAS. Among all emitted pollutants estimated, nitrogen oxides (NO <inf xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">x</inf> ) shared the most proportion among pollutants by maritime. With the argumentation of more NO <inf xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">x</inf> emission generated under slow engine speed, the environment in SOMAS had favoured its generation. With over 100,000 ship trajectories compacted within the port waters and turning points between Johor and Singapore strait, it was found that the highest contributor of emissions came from containership as a result of slow steaming. Other cargo ships also contributed substantially on the emissions as a result of long period of manoeuvring or hotelling. The result presented draws the attention about the environmental impact caused by ship emissions.

Background/Objectives: Ship trajectories in Vessel Traffic Service (VTS) system are generated by integrating the Automatic Identification System (AIS) or Radar system. However, the AIS system has missing data section caused by AIS device problems, radio jamming, and so on. These data have been confusing ship navigators and VTS operators.Methods/Statistical analysis: In order to extract missing AIS data, time intervals of sequent points from each ship trajectory are calculated. The section with missing AIS data is above a threshold time limit defined by characteristics. Using k-means algorithm, missing AIS data were clustered into several clusters stored by ship’s ID and sailing direction. Using association rule mining analysis, meaningful association pattern were calculated by missing AIS dataset.Findings: As a result of the association rule mining, we found several missing AIS situation patterns. In case of the west route, the probability of missing AIS situation is high when they enter the east and passenger routes. Also, the probability of missing AIS situation of passing the passenger route is high when that ship enter the LNG, east and west routes.Improvements/Applications: These results can be used to predict the probability of missing AIS data in VTS system.

Recreational boating is an increasing activity in coastal areas and its spatiotemporal overlap with key habitats of marine species pose a risk for negative noise impacts. Yet, recreational vessels are currently unaccounted for in vessel noise models using Automatic Identification System (AIS) data. Here we conduct a case study investigating noise contributions from vessels with and without AIS (non-AIS) in a shallow coastal area within the Inner Danish waters. By tracking vessels with theodolite and AIS, while recording ambient noise levels, we find that non-AIS vessels have a higher occurrence (83%) than AIS vessels, and that motorised recreational vessels can elevate third-octave band noise centred at 0.125, 2 and 16 kHz by 47–51 dB. Accordingly, these vessels dominated the soundscape in the study site due to their high numbers, high speeds and proximity to the coast. Furthermore, recreational vessels caused 49–85% of noise events potentially eliciting behavioural responses in harbour porpoises (AIS vessels caused 5–24%). We therefore conclude that AIS data would poorly predict vessel noise pollution and its impacts in this and other similar marine environments. We suggest to improve vessel noise models and impact assessments by requiring that faster and more powerful recreational vessels carry AIS-transmitters.

Development of a Gridded Maritime Traffic DB for e-Navigation

As a core component of the maritime Internet of Things (IoT), the Automatic Identification System (AIS) continuously collects dynamic vessel navigation data, providing a solid foundation for addressing complex maritime traffic prediction tasks that support intelligent Vessel Traffic Services (VTS), such as vessel trajectory prediction and vessel arrival time (VAT) estimation. However, existing methods typically focus on single prediction objectives, falling short of meeting practical multi-task requirements. To address this gap, this study proposes a geospatial grid-constrained deep learning framework based on AIS data to simultaneously handle three key prediction tasks: vessel trajectory prediction, whether the vessel arrives within the specified time, and VAT. The framework incorporates a dynamic patch construction method and a Graph Soft Evolution (GSE) module to capture temporal correlations among observations under spatial grid constraints. An encoder-decoder architecture is introduced, where the encoder employs a Squeeze-and-Excitation (SE) block to adaptively select feature channels, and the decoder models dependencies across both variable and temporal dimensions. In a case study of New York Harbor, the model achieved an R² of 0.8386 and RMSE of 0.0329 for latitude increment prediction, and an R² of 0.8432 with RMSE of 0.0322 for longitude increment prediction. It also attained 99.83% accuracy in arrival status prediction and an R² of 0.9350 with RMSE of 0.0701 for VAT prediction. The framework demonstrated effectiveness in port scheduling and robust generalizability in cross-validation experiments at the Port of Los Angeles, thereby demonstrating its substantial potential to enhance the operational efficiency of VTS within maritime IoT systems.

Path planning for large ships in inland waterways considering risk assessment of AIS data

The development of China’s digital waterways has led to the extensive deployment of cameras along inland waterways. However, the limited processing and utilization of digital resources hinder the ability to provide waterway services. To address this issue, this paper introduces a novel waterway perception approach based on an intelligent navigation marker system. By integrating multiple sensors into navigation markers, the fusion of camera video data and automatic identification system (AIS) data is achieved. The proposed method of an enhanced one-stage object detection algorithm improves detection accuracy for small vessels in complex inland waterway environments, while an object-tracking algorithm ensures the stable monitoring of vessel trajectories. To mitigate AIS data latency, a trajectory prediction algorithm is employed through region-based matching methods for the precise alignment of AIS data with pixel coordinates detected in video feeds. Furthermore, an augmented reality (AR)-based traffic situational awareness framework is developed to dynamically visualize key information. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model significantly outperforms mainstream algorithms. It achieves exceptional robustness in detecting small targets and managing complex backgrounds, with data fusion accuracy ranging from 84.29% to 94.32% across multiple tests, thereby substantially enhancing the spatiotemporal alignment between AIS and video data.

Assessing the fishing footprint using data integrated from different tracking devices: Issues and opportunities