Statistical representation of distribution system loads using Gaussian Mixture Model

This paper presents a probabilistic approach for statistical modeling of the loads in distribution networks. In a distribution network, the probability density functions (pdfs) of loads at different buses show a number of variations and cannot be represented by any specific distribution. The approach presented in this paper represents all the load pdfs through Gaussian mixture model (GMM). The expectation maximization (EM) algorithm is used to obtain the parameters of the mixture components. The performance of the method is demonstrated on a 95-bus generic distribution network model.

This study presents an approach to utilise the loads as pseudo-measurements for the purpose of distribution system state estimation (DSSE). The load probability density function (pdf) in the distribution network shows a number of variations at different nodes and cannot be represented by any specific distribution. The approach presented in this study represents all the load pdfs through the Gaussian mixture model (GMM). The expectation maximisation (EM) algorithm is used to obtain the parameters of the mixture components. The standard weighted least squares (WLS) algorithm utilises these load models as pseudo-measurements. The effectiveness of WLS is assessed through some statistical measures such as bias, consistency and quality of the estimates in a 95-bus generic distribution network model.

The expectation maximisation (EM) algorithm is an iterative maximum likelihood procedure often used for estimating the parameters of a mixture model. Theoretically, increases in the likelihood function are guaranteed as the algorithm iteratively improves upon previously derived parameter estimates. The algorithm is considered to converge when all parameter estimates become stable and no further improvements can be made to the likelihood value. However, to reduce computational time, it is often common practice for the algorithm to be stopped before complete convergence using heuristic approaches. In this paper, we consider various stopping criteria and evaluate their effect on fitting Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) to patient length of stay (LOS) data. Although the GMM can be successfully fitted to positively skewed data such as LOS, the fitting procedure often requires many iterations of the EM algorithm. To our knowledge, no previous study has evaluated the effect of different stopping criteria on fitting GMMs to skewed distributions. Hence, the aim of this paper is to evaluate the effect of various stopping criteria in order to select and justify their use within a patient spell classification methodology. Results illustrate that criteria based on the difference in the likelihood value and on the GMM parameters may not always be a good indicator for stopping the algorithm. In fact we show that the values of the difference in the variance parameters should be used instead, as these parameters are the last to stabilise. In addition, we also specify threshold values for the other stopping criteria.

In a distribution power network, the load model has no certain pattern or predicted behaviour due to large range of data and changes in energy consumption for end-user consumers. Thus, a powerful analysis based on probabilistic structure is required. For this paper Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) has been used. GMM is a powerful probability model that allows different types of load distributions to be presented as a combination of several Gaussian distributions. The parameters of GMM is unknown for large random data such as real load data and these parameters can be identified by Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm. This paper presents a method to evaluate probabilistic load data concerning the time-evolution of any type of distribution load for any duration of time. The proposed method is explained through generated load data of 100 residential houses for duration of one year.

The traditional Expectation-Maximization (EM) training of Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) is essentially a batch mode procedure which requires the multiple data samples with the sufficient size to update the model parameters. This severely limits the deployment and adaptation of GMM in many real-time online systems since the newly observed data samples are expected to be incorporated into the system upon available via retraining the model. This paper presents a new online incremental EM training procedure of GMM, which aims to perform the EM training incrementally and so can adapt GMM online sample by sample. The proposed method is extended on two kinds of EM algorithms for GMM, namely, Split-and-Merge EM and the traditional EM. Experiments on both the synthetic data and a speech processing task show the advantages and efficiency of the new method.

Segmentation of clusters by template rotation expectation maximization

The accurate modeling of uncertain variables, such as wind power and load uncertainty, is an essential foundation for the planning operation and scheduling decisions in power systems. Currently, Gaussian mixture model (GMM) and Dirichlet process mixture model (DPMM) are the primary techniques used to characterize uncertainties in power systems, which are commonly solved by expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. However, for the massive data of uncertain variables, the algorithm encounters challenges in accurately obtaining GMM and DPMM with a lower time consumption. To address this issue, we propose a method for GMM uncertainty modeling in power systems considering the mutual assistance of latent variables. Specifically, the GMM of uncertain variables is first constructed, and the conditional probability is employed to characterize the mutual assistance of latent variables. Then, an improved EM algorithm is developed to obtain the optimal GMM parameters, in which the expectation step (E-step) and maximization step (M-step) of the algorithm are revised using the conditional probability. Importantly, the closed-form solutions for GMM parameters are rederived in the revised E-step and M-step. Finally, the proposed uncertainty modeling method is compared with the traditional GMM and DPMM on actual wind power and load data from Australia. The proposed method performs the efficiency and accuracy in characterizing uncertainty.

Gaussian-input Gaussian mixture model for representing density maps and atomic models.

The emerging distribution networks are equipped with renewable generation resources, controllable loads and corresponding monitoring and control assets to actively regulate the aggregated demand in the bulk power system. The volume of the energy received from the bulk power system as well as the price of electricity contributes to the operation cost of the distribution network. Distribution system operators balance the demand and supply and compensate for the intermittency and variability of the local renewable generation resources and noncontrollable loads using the controllable generation and demand assets. Data centers are large flexible electrical loads in distribution networks that could help the distribution system operators to manage the operation cost and to mitigate the imbalance between the demand and generation. The introduced uncertainties in the operation horizon provide economic risks in the distribution network operation. Hence, providing efficient measures for risk associated with the uncertainties provides an insight for the decision makers to avoid over conservative operation decisions. The proposed risk averse operation planning framework constrains the volatility of the expected cost through the conditional value at risk (CVaR) assessment.

Aiming at the problems of power flow fluctuation and voltage exceeding standard caused by high permeability distributed power supply access, this paper proposes a load state perception early warning method for distribution networks. Firstly, the random behavior characteristics and voltage early warning mechanisms of power supply and load in distribution networks are analyzed, the dynamic model of distribution networks based on complex network theory is established, and the risk index of voltage exceeding limits under the conditions of high permeability distributed power supply access is put forward. Secondly, the random power flow of distribution networks based on the Monte Carlo method is studied by sampling and analyzing the dynamic model of distribution networks. Then, the risk calculation and safety assessment of voltage exceeding limits are carried out on the currently extracted model, and the risk control strategy of distribution network operation is put forward. Finally, an improved IEEE30-node distribution network topology is proposed. Through simulation analysis, it is proven that the load situation awareness early warning method of distribution networks can effectively predict, improve the security of distribution networks, and provide timely early warning information for maintenance personnel.

In order to have a reliable estimate of wind energy potential of a site, high frequency wind speed and direction data recorded for an extended period of time is required. Weibull distribution function is commonly used to approximate the recorded data distribution for estimation of wind energy. In the present study a comparison of Weibull function and Gaussian mixture model (GMM) as theoretical functions are used. The data set used for the study consists of hourly wind speeds and wind directions of 54 years duration recorded at Ijmuiden wind site located in north of Holland. The entire hourly data set of 54 years is reduced to 12 sets of hourly averaged data corresponding to 12 months. Authenticity of data is assessed by computing descriptive statistics on the entire data set without average and on monthly 12 data sets. Additionally, descriptive statistics show that wind speeds are positively skewed and most of the wind data points are observed to be blowing in south-west direction. Cumulative distribution and probability density function for all data sets are determined for both Weibull function and GMM. Wind power densities on monthly as well as for the entire set are determined from both models using probability density functions of Weibull function and GMM. In order to assess the goodness-of-fit of the fitted Weibull function and GMM, coefficient of determination (R2) and Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) tests are also determined. Although R2 test values for Weibull function are much closer to ‘1’ compared to its values for GMM. Nevertheless, overall performance of GMM is superior to Weibull function in terms of estimated wind power densities using GMM which are in good agreement with the power densities estimated using wind data for the same duration. It is reported that wind power densities for the entire wind data set are 307 W/m2 and 403.96 W/m2 estimated using GMM and Weibull function, respectively.

Efficient similarity search for uncertain data is a challenging task in many modern data mining applications like image retrieval, speaker recognition and stock market analysis. A common way to model the uncertainty of data objects is using probability density functions in the form of Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs), which have an ability to approximate arbitrary distribution. However, due to the possible unequal length of mixture models, the use of existing index techniques has serious problems for the objects modeled by GMMs. Either the techniques cannot handle GMMs or they have too many limitations. Hence, we propose a dynamic index structure, Gaussian Component based Index (GCI), for GMMs. GCI decomposes GMMs into the single, pairs, or n-lets of Gaussian components, stores these components into well studied index trees such as U-tree and Gauss-Tree, and refines the corresponding GMMs in a conservative but tight way. GCI supports both k-most-likely queries and probability threshold queries by means of Matching Probability. Extensive experimental evaluations of GCI demonstrate a considerable speed-up of similarity search on both synthetic and real-world data sets.

One effective iterative method for estimating parameters in latent variable probabilistic models is the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm, which finds extensive use in classification issues. A versatile probabilistic framework for modeling data from multiple Gaussian distributions, Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs) employ EM for parameter estimation, which is explored in this article. Problems with class membership estimation (including means, covariances, and mixing coefficients) are the primary focus of this study. Starting with initial parameter estimations, estimating posterior probabilities in the E-step, and repeatedly updating model parameters in the M-step until convergence, the technique entails applying the EM algorithm on both synthetic and real-world datasets. In order to measure performance, we compare it to K-means and other baseline classifiers using measures like classification accuracy, Adjusted Rand Index (ARI), and log-likelihood progression. When data is distributed according to a multimodal Gaussian distribution, the findings show that EM-GMM provides better parameter estimation and better classification accuracy. Initialization procedures have a substantial effect on performance, as convergence study further shows. In addition to reiterating the EM algorithm's usefulness for probabilistic classification, this paper also describes its advantages and disadvantages and offers suggestions for improving its performance in settings with high-dimensional data and noise.

This study examines the effect of wind power availability on the distribution system load behaviors using the K-means clustering algorithm to process the load data following the integration of wind power. First, this article presents the concept of the K-means clustering algorithm and then carries out the preprocessing of the data and the analysis of the clusters using real distribution network load data. The findings of the research are that the volatility of the distribution network load curve increases sharply with the ratio of wind power access, and the voltage quality and the system stability are also affected to some extent. This research verified the feasibility of the K-means clustering algorithm to categorize the load data and to derive characteristics, explored the characteristics of the load under various wind power access modes, and disclosed the relationship between the wind power access and the characteristics of the distribution network load. The conclusions obtained through this research not only promote the theory regarding how the connection of wind power has an effect upon distribution networks but also offer date support and decision making aid to the optimization of the operations of the grid and dispatch in real-world projects, and indicate the way to improve the adaptability and stability of the distribution networks through new concepts and technical means.

The accurate reconstruction of vehicle paths is essential for effective highway toll management. To address the challenge of multiple possible paths due to missing trajectory data, this study proposes a novel two-stage model for vehicle path reconstruction. In the first stage, a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) is integrated into a path choice model to estimate the mean and standard deviation of travel times for each road segment, utilizing an improved Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm. In the second stage, based on the estimated time parameters, path choice prior probabilities and observed data are combined using maximum likelihood estimation to infer the most probable paths among candidate routes. The results indicate that the improved EM algorithm achieved convergence in 17 iterations compared to 41 iterations for the traditional EM algorithm. The two-stage model outperforms the Shortest Path and Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory models in path reconstruction, particularly with a high number of missing trajectory points. Additionally, when the number of candidate paths K=4, the path reconstruction performance is optimal. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in handling sparse and incomplete trajectory data, offering robust and accurate vehicle path estimations that enhance traffic management and toll calculation precision.