Stochastic Processes and Martingales

Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) and the Kolmogorov partial differential equations (PDEs) associated to them have been widely used in models from engineering, finance, and the natural sciences. In particular, SDEs and Kolmogorov PDEs, respectively, are highly employed in models for the approximative pricing of financial derivatives. Kolmogorov PDEs and SDEs, respectively, can typically not be solved explicitly and it has been and still is an active topic of research to design and analyze numerical methods which are able to approximately solve Kolmogorov PDEs and SDEs, respectively. Nearly all approximation methods for Kolmogorov PDEs in the literature suffer under the curse of dimensionality or only provide approximations of the solution of the PDE at a single fixed space-time point. In this paper we derive and propose a numerical approximation method which aims to overcome both of the above mentioned drawbacks and intends to deliver a numerical approximation of the Kolmogorov PDE on an entire region \([a,b]^d\) without suffering from the curse of dimensionality. Numerical results on examples including the heat equation, the Black–Scholes model, the stochastic Lorenz equation, and the Heston model suggest that the proposed approximation algorithm is quite effective in high dimensions in terms of both accuracy and speed.

Fractional Brownian Motions, Fractional Noises and Applications

A Study on Uncertainty of Discharge in River Channel Using Stochastic Partial Differential Equation

Since Pardoux and Peng firstly studied the following nonlinear backward stochastic differential equations in 1990. The theory of BSDE has been widely studied and applied, especially in the stochastic control, stochastic differential games, financial mathematics and partial differential equations. In 1994, Pardoux and Peng came up with backward doubly stochastic differential equations to give the probabilistic interpretation for stochastic partial differential equations. Backward doubly stochastic differential equations theory has been widely studied because of its importance in stochastic partial differential equations and stochastic control problems. In this article, we will study the theory of doubly stochastic systems and related topics further.

Developments in ODE, SDE, PDE, PIDE and Other Analytical Approaches and Their Applications to Modern Physics and Quantitative Finance (Presentation Slides)

The tenth special issue of the Japanese Journal of Statistics and Data Science (JJSD) focuses on statistics for stochastic processes. With the advancement of information and communication technology and measurement technology, a vast amount of diverse time series data have been readily obtained. Consequently, the significance of stochastic processes as mathematical models for random phenomena evolving in time or space has increased dramatically, and statistics for various types of stochastic processes have been rapidly developing. In fact, a multitude of studies on statistics for stochastic processes such as ARMA, CARMA, COGARCH, diffusion processes, fractional Brownian motions, GARCH, jump-diffusion processes, Lèvy processes, Markov processes, point processes, random fields, stochastic differential equations and stochastic partial differential equations have been conducted. Nonetheless, because of the mathematical complexity of statistics for stochastic processes, numerous theoretical and computational challenges remain to be addressed. This special feature contains ten original papers contributed by leading mathematical statisticians and data scientists on current topics in statistics for stochastic processes. The first paper examines the efficient particle Markov chain Monte Carlo method. The second and third papers respectively address the estimation problems of Hawkes processes and Cox proportional excess hazard models. The fourth and fifth papers investigate parametric estimation for probability partial differential equation models. The latter five papers focus on statistical inference for stochastic differential equation models driven by various stochastic processes, including the Wiener process, fractional Brownian motion, β-stable process and Lèvy process. The ten papers in the special feature are summarized as follows: Awaya and Omori propose an efficient particle Markov chain Monte Carlo methodology for the rolling-window estimation of state space models. They provide theoretical justifications for their proposed method and demonstrate the efficiency of B Masayuki Uchida

The general area of stochastic PDEs is interesting to mathematicians because it contains an enormous number of challenging open problems. There is also a great deal of interest in this topic because it has deep applications in disciplines that range from applied mathematics, statistical mechanics, and theoretical physics, to theoretical neuroscience, theory of complex chemical reactions [including polymer science], fluid dynamics, and mathematical finance. The stochastic PDEs that are studied in this book are similar to the familiar PDE for heat in a thin rod, but with the additional restriction that the external forcing density is a two-parameter stochastic process, or what is more commonly the case, the forcing is a ``random noise,'' also known as a ``generalized random field.'' At several points in the lectures, there are examples that highlight the phenomenon that stochastic PDEs are not a subset of PDEs. In fact, the introduction of noise in some partial differential equations can bring about not a small perturbation, but truly fundamental changes to the system that the underlying PDE is attempting to describe. The topics covered include a brief introduction to the stochastic heat equation, structure theory for the linear stochastic heat equation, and an in-depth look at intermittency properties of the solution to semilinear stochastic heat equations. Specific topics include stochastic integrals a la Norbert Wiener, an infinite-dimensional Ito-type stochastic integral, an example of a parabolic Anderson model, and intermittency fronts. There are many possible approaches to stochastic PDEs. The selection of topics and techniques presented here are informed by the guiding example of the stochastic heat equation.

Stochastic differential equation (SDE) models are the foundation for pricing and hedging financial derivatives. The drift and volatility functions in SDE models are typically chosen to be algebraic functions with a small number ( < 5 ) of parameters which can be calibrated to market data. A more flexible approach is to use neural networks to model the drift and volatility functions, which provides more degrees-of-freedom to match observed market data. Training of models requires optimizing over an SDE, which is computationally challenging. For European options, we develop a fast stochastic gradient descent (SGD) algorithm for training the neural network-SDE model. Our SGD algorithm uses two independent SDE paths to obtain an unbiased estimate of the direction of steepest descent. For American options, we optimize over the corresponding Kolmogorov partial differential equation (PDE). The neural network appears as coefficient functions in the PDE. Models are trained on large datasets (many contracts), requiring either large simulations (many Monte Carlo samples for the stock price paths) or large numbers of PDEs (a PDE must be solved for each contract). Numerical results are presented for real market data including S&P 500 index options, S&P 100 index options, and single-stock American options. The neural-network-based SDE models are compared against the Black-Scholes model, the Dupire's local volatility model, and the Heston model. Models are evaluated in terms of how accurate they are at pricing out-of-sample financial derivatives, which is a core task in derivative pricing at financial institutions. Specifically, we calibrate a neural network-SDE model to market data for a financial derivative on an asset with price S t with a payoff function g ( s ) , and we then evaluate its generalization accuracy for a financial derivative on the same asset S t but with a different payoff function f ( s ) . In addition to comparing out-of-sample pricing accuracy, we evaluate the hedging performance of the neural network-SDE model.

The main purpose of this article is to propose a reasonable definition for the stochastic integration (S.I.) of progressive processes w.r.t. semimartingales. This S.I. generalizes that of predictable processes w.r.t. semimartingales as well as the stochastic Stieltjes integration. This S.I. is proposed in §1. We give also in §1 an exponential formula for semimartingales using this S.I.. The rest of this paper consists of several remarks on the theory of stochastic integration which are mostly of pedagogical interest. In §2 we propose a new construction of the S.I. of predictable processes w.r.t. local martingales. A simple proof of the integration by parts formula is given in §3. Finally, we propose in §4 a short proof of Meyer’s theorem on compensated stochastic integrals of local martingales.AMS Subject Classification60H05

Deep neural networks based temporal-difference methods for high-dimensional parabolic partial differential equations

In this thesis, stochastic processes closely related to a prominent process called Brownian motion is introduced. The processes are called local Brownian motions. Two rich families are constructed, which can be used to model stochastic dynamical systems in such fields as finance, biology, and physics. Stochastic calculus with respect to local Brownian motion is developed, and strong solutions are presented for some stochastic differential equations driven by the noise generated by local Brownian motions.

In the academic literature there are two common approaches for the evaluation of financial options. These are stochastic calculus and partial differential equations. The former is the method of choice for statisticians and theoreticians, while the latter is the principal tool of physicists and computer scientists because it lends itself to practical implementation schemes. Occasionally small modifications such as linear regression and binomial trees are used, but these are usually treated within either of the two previously mentioned fields. Rarely do the practitioners of these fields compare and contrast methodologies, let alone admit completely different approaches. While Radial Basis Function (RBF) methodology has previously been applied to solving some differential equations, there are very few papers considering its applicability to financial mathematics. The purpose of this article is to show not only that RBF can solve many of the evaluation problems for financial options, but that with Mathematica it can do so with accuracy and speed.

A new higher order finite element method for elliptic partial differential equations on a stationary smooth surface $\Gamma$ is introduced and analyzed. We assume that $\Gamma$ is characterized as the zero level of a level set function $\phi$ and only a finite element approximation $\phi_h$ (of degree $k \geq 1$) of $\phi$ is known. For the discretization of the partial differential equation, finite elements (of degree $m\geq 1$) on a piecewise linear approximation of $\Gamma$ are used. The discretization is lifted to $\Gamma_h$, which denotes the zero level of $\phi_h$, using a quasi-orthogonal coordinate system that is constructed by applying a gradient recovery technique to $\phi_h$. A complete discretization error analysis is presented in which the error is split into a geometric error, a quadrature error, and a finite element approximation error. The main result is a $H^1(\Gamma)$-error bound of the form $c(h^m + h^{k+1})$. Results of numerical experiments illustrate the higher order convergence of t...

Random dynamical systems can be generated by stochastic differential equations (sde) on the one hand, and by random differential equations (rde), i.e. randomly parametrized ordinary differential equations on the other hand. Due to conflicting concepts in stochastic calculus and ergodic theory, asymptotic problems for systems associated with sde are harder to treat. We show that both objects are basically identical, modulo a stationary coordinate change (cohomology) on the state space. This observation opens completely new opportunities for the treatment of asymptotic problems for systems related to sde: just study them for the conjugate rde, which is often possible by simple path-by-path classical arguments. This is exemplified for the problem of local linearization of random dynamical systems, the classical analogue of which leads to the Hartman–Grobman theorem.

Roughly speaking, stochastic differential equations are differential equations driven by Gaussian white noise. Here, we are using the term “stochastic differential equations” in a restricted sense and not merely to denote differential equations with some probabilistic aspects. The importance of. stochastic differential equations is largely due to the fact that the solution of such an equation is a sample-continuous Markov process, and conversely, a large and important class of sample-continuous Markov processes can be modeled by the solutions of stochastic differential equations. From the point of view of applications, this is a direct benefit of using white noise as a noise model, and this fact accounts for its popularity. After all, white noise is, at best, a tolerable abstraction and is never a completely faithful representation of a physical noise source. Its raison d’être is the simplicity of analysis that it brings about. We have seen this in connection with Kalman filtering, and we shall see it again in the Markovian nature of solutions to stochastic differential equations.