Structural Reliability Analysis Using Legendre Orthogonal Neural Network Method

In order to evaluate the failure probability of a complicated structure, the structural responses usually need to be estimated by some numerical analysis methods such as finite element method (FEM). The response surface method (RSM) can be used to reduce the computational effort required for reliability analysis when the performance functions are implicit. However, the conventional RSM is time-consuming or cumbersome if the number of random variables is large. This paper proposes a Legendre orthogonal neural network (LONN)-based RSM to estimate the structural reliability. In this method, the relationship between the random variables and structural responses is established by a LONN model. Then the LONN model is connected to a reliability analysis method, i.e. first-order reliability methods (FORM) to calculate the failure probability of the structure. Numerical examples show that the proposed approach is applicable to structural reliability analysis, as well as the structure with implicit performance functions.

Fuzzy reliability analysis can be implemented using two discrete optimization maps in the processes of reliability and fuzzy analysis. Actually, the efficiency and robustness of the iterative reliability methods are two main factors in the fuzzy-based reliability analysis due to the huge computational burdens and unstable results. In the structural fuzzy reliability analysis, the first-order reliability method (FORM) using discrete nonlinear map can provide a C membership function. In this paper, a discrete nonlinear conjugate map is proposed using a relaxed-finite step size method for fuzzy structural reliability analysis, namely Fuzzy conjugate relaxed-finite step size method fuzzy CRS. A discrete conjugate map is stabilized using two adaptive factors to compute the relaxed factor and step size in FORM. The framework of the proposed fuzzy structural reliability method is established using two linked iterative discrete maps as an outer loop, which constructs the membership function of the response using alpha level set optimization based on genetic operator, and the inner loop, implemented for reliability analysis using proposed conjugate relaxed-finite step size method. The fuzzy CRS and fuzzy HL-RF methods are compared to evaluate the membership functions of five structural problems with highly nonlinear limit state functions. Results demonstrated that the fuzzy CRS method is computationally more efficient and is strongly more robust than the HL-RF for fuzzy-based reliability analysis of the nonlinear structural reliability problems.

A method is presented to efficiently approximate the failure probability of structures subjected to time-variant loads, where the system of loads and structure may have uncertain parameters. The method uses response surface methodology in conjunction with the fast integration technique suggested by Wen and Chen, to provide a limit-state formulation that is computationally simple to solve based on a small number of response time histories. The system reliability may then be quickly computed by first-order reliability method (FORM)/ second-order reliability method (SORM) or Monte Carlo simulation. Sensitivity analysis is performed to determine the effect on the failure probability of changes to the system parameters, which can be important when determining whether uncertainty in a given system parameter is significant. An empirical measure of the accuracy of the response surface approximation is presented.

The seismic safety of reinforced concrete containment building can be evaluated by probabilistic analysis considering randomness of earthquake, which is more rational than deterministic analysis. In the safety assessment of earthquake-resistant structures by the deterministic theory, it is not easy to consider the effects of random variables but the reliability theory and random vibration theory are useful to assess the seismic safety with considering random effects. The reliability assessment of reinforced concrete containment building subjected to earthquake load includes the structural analysis considering random variables such as load, resistance and analysis method, the definition of limit states and the reliability analysis. The reliability analysis procedure requires much time and labor and also needs to get the high confidence in results. In this study, random vibration analysis of containment building is performed with random variables as earthquake load, concrete compressive strength, modal damping ratio. The seismic responses of critical elements of structure are approximated at the most probable failure point by the response surface method. The response surface method helps to figure out the quantitative characteristics of structural response variability. And the limit state is defined as the failure surface of concrete under multi-axial stress, finally the limit state probability of failure can be obtained simply by first-order second moment method. The reliability analysis for the multiaxial strength limit state and the uniaxial strength limit state is performed and the results are compared with each other. This study concludes that the multiaxial failure criterion is a likely limit state to predict concrete failure strength under combined state of stresses and the reliability analysis results are compatible with the fact that the maximum compressive strength of concrete under biaxial compression state increases.

abstract: The Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and First-Order Reliability Method (FORM) provide a reliability analysis in axisymmetric deep tunnels driven in elastoplastic rocks. The Convergence-Confinement method (CV-CF) and Mohr-Coulomb (M-C) criterion are used to model the mechanical interaction between the shotcrete lining and ground through deterministic parameters and random variables. Numerical models synchronize tunnel analytical models and reliability methods, whereas the limit state functions control the failure probability in both ground plastic zone and shotcrete lining. The results showed that a low dispersion of random variables affects the plastic zone's reliability analysis in unsupported tunnels. Moreover, the support pressure generates a significant reduction in the plastic zone's failure, whereas the increase of shotcrete thickness results in great reduction of the lining collapse probability.

The main aim of this paper was to propose a new reliability index for steel structure assessment and to check it using the example of a popular Pratt truss girder. Structural analysis was completed in the finite element method system Autodesk ROBOT, and probabilistic analysis was implemented in the computer algebra software MAPLE. The stochastic finite element method (SFEM) was contrasted here with the Monte Carlo simulation and the girder span was selected as the input structural uncertainty source. Both methods were based on the same structural polynomial response functions determined for extreme deformation, for extreme stresses and also for the structural joint exhibiting the largest effort. These polynomials were statistically optimized during the additional least squares method experiments. The first four basic probabilistic characteristics of the structural responses, the first-order reliability method (FORM) index, and as the new proposition for this index were computed and presented. This new index formula follows the relative probabilistic entropy model proposed by Bhattacharyya. The computer analysis results presented here show a very strong coincidence of both probabilistic numerical techniques and confirms the applicability of the new reliability index for the input coefficient of variation not larger than 0.15. These studies should be continued for other engineering systems’ reliability and, particularly, for large-scale and multiscale computer simulations. The results presented in this paper may serve in different applied sciences, from biology through to econometrics, experimental physics and, of course, various branches of engineering.

Finite element reliability analysis of edge delamination onset due to interlaminar stresses in composite laminates

The optimal design of multidisciplinary systems under uncertainty involves three types of iterative analyses- multidisciplinary analyses, reliability analyses, and optimization. If these processes are carried out in a nested manner in reliability based multidisciplinary design optimization (RBMDO), the computational expense can be enormous. Computationally efficient simultaneous analysis and design (SAND) or All-AtOnce methods have been developed earlier for deterministic MDO. Single loop RBDO methods have also been developed to integrate reliability analysis and optimization in a single loop. This paper develops a novel formulation of RBMDO problems with both system and component level reliability constraints. The formulation allows for solution with a single design optimization loop by using the KKT optimality conditions of the first-order reliability method (FORM) as constraints in the design optimization along with disciplinary consistency constraints. Alternative solution processes which remove the FORM MPP’s from the decision space and many constraints from the problem are developed. The alternative solution methods are more efficient and more robust than using nonlinear programming to solve the single loop formulation. A numerical example is solved with the two proposed solution algorithms. I. Introduction In the design of multidisciplinary systems it is often necessary to make decisions under uncertainty. This requires that multidisciplinary systems modeling be integrated with uncertainty analysis and optimization. A common example of such an engineering design application would be the design of an aircraft wing under uncertain aerodynamic loading conditions, with multiple structural components with uncertain capacities, such that the entire structural system achieves a prescribed level of reliability. The problem has coupled physics, in that the pressure distribution is dependent upon the deflection, and the deflection is dependent on the pressure distribution. Such designs have been performed using multidisciplinary optimization (MDO). Other examples where MDO may be applied include electronics packaging, in which the disciplines of heat transfer and circuit analysis are coupled, the design of new types of aircraft and integrating them into an existing fleet of aircraft, and even the management of interconnected homeland infrastructures. While MDO has matured with the development of different types of algorithms for various types of problems and design organizations, there has been little work to incorporate reliability analysis into MDO. However, system and component reliabilities are often a major concern in the design of multidisciplinary systems. MDO can be computationally expensive due to the need to achieve consistency across multiple disciplinary analysis codes; each disciplinary analysis code may be computationally expensive to run. Further, the optimal design of multidisciplinary systems under uncertainty involves three types of iterative procedures- multidisciplinary analyses, reliability analyses, and optimization. The integration of these three procedures is referred to in this paper as reliability based multidisciplinary design optimization (RBMDO). If these processes are carried out simultaneously, the computational expense can be enormous. Computational savings can often be achieved with simultaneous analysis and design (SAND) or All-At-Once methods, which allow for the solution of the multidisciplinary analyses and the optimization in one single loop. Single loop RBDO methods allow for the integration of reliability analysis and optimization in a single loop. Applying SAND and single-loop RBDO together may allow for large computational savings when applied to problems in RBMDO. This paper develops a novel formulation of RBMDO problems with both system and component level reliability constraints based on the SAND method for MDO and by use of the KKT conditions of the first order reliability method (FORM). The resulting formulation may be solved as a standard nonlinear programming problem. While the single loop formulation presented in this paper is a solution of the RBMDO problem, robustness and efficiency are improved through two improved algorithms which can remove the MPP’s from the decision space, thereby significantly reducing the optimizer’s workload.

Probabilistic analysis of ultimate seismic bearing capacity of strip foundations

Improved response surface method and its application to stiffened plate reliability analysis

Objectives: Quantification of uncertainties and its implications on stability assessment of geotechnical problems can very well be captured through probabilistic analysis in which parameters are considered to be random variables. Thus, randomness of the response of the system is also captured and safety assessment is reported in terms of a safety index, commonly called as “reliability index”. In this study, probabilistic approach in conjunction with conventional deterministic approach is used for the analysis of a deep excavation problem and advantages of probabilistic approach are highlighted. Methods/Statistical Analysis: Probabilistic analysis requires establishment of connection between input parameters and output responses, for which response surface method (RSM) concepts can effectively be utilized. RSM helps developing regression model between input and output which can be used for the probabilistic analysis through First Order Reliability Method (FORM). Advanced finite element numerical tool, i.e., PLAXIS 3D is utilized for the purpose of the analysis. Findings: Considering this typical case of deep excavation problem, it is highlighted that probabilistic analysis when used in conjunction with the deterministic approach, it brings rationality in decision making while dealing with uncertainty and provides mathematical basis for treating uncertainty. Application/Improvements: Conventionally, stability analyses of a deep excavation system are carried out through limit equilibrium based approaches and the parameter used to define extent of stability is factor of safety. With advent of computers and finite element or finite difference based computing facilities, strength reduction technique is adopted to estimate the factor of safety. These numerical tools also help in predicting the deformation pattern and judging the serviceability requirements. In either case, the soil parameters used as input in the numerical tools are taken a constant value uniformly. Choice of appropriate value of design input parameter is based on past experience, good engineering judgment and confidence in the adopted analysis methodology. Due to various uncertain sources involved in the estimation of the input properties of a natural material like soil, such as, natural variability, testing errors, model transformation, it is impractical to assign a single value to design parameter. Deterministic approach, which involves single value of design parameters for stability assessment is considered to be simple and straight forward. It is demonstrated that quantification of uncertainties and its influence on stability assessment of deep excavation problem can be captured in probabilistic framework.

Uncertainties are inherent and prevalent throughout the life cycle of engineering structures, necessitating their explicit incorporation in the design process. This article presents a reliability-based topology optimization (RBTO) framework using the phase-field method to minimize the structural compliance under the condition of meeting the reliability requirement considering the uncertainty of the dimensions of the structure, loads, material parameters, etc. Based on the idea of decoupling, the reliability-based topology optimization model is divided into a reliability analysis problem and a deterministic topology optimization (DTO) problem. In the reliability analysis stage, the structure's failure probability is approximated using the first-order reliability method. In the DTO stage, the phase-field function (representing the structure state) is updated by the Allen–Cahn equation, driven by sensitivity-based optimization. Several examples are presented to demonstrate the performance of the proposed method.

In this work, a method for the application of multi-fidelity modeling to the reliability analysis of 2D elastostatic structures using the boundary element method (BEM) is proposed. Reliability analyses were carried out on a rectangular plate with a center circular hole subjected to uniaxial tension using Monte Carlo simulations (MCS), the first-order reliability method (FORM), and the second-order reliability method (SORM). Two BEM models were investigated, a low-fidelity model (LFM) of 20 elements and a high-fidelity model (HFM) of 100 elements. The response of these models at several design points was used to create multi-fidelity models (MFMs) utilizing second-order polynomial response surfaces and their reliability, alongside that of the LFM and the HFM, was evaluated. Results show that the MFMs that directly called the LFM were significantly superior in terms of accuracy to the LFM, achieving very similar levels of accuracy to the HFM, while also being of similar computational cost to the LFM. These direct MFMs were found to provide good substitutes for the HFM for MCS, FORM, and SORM.

Reliability-based design optimization is much more computationally expensive than deterministic design optimization. To alleviate the computational demand, the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) is usually used in reliability-based design. Since FORM requires a nonlinear transformation from non-normal random variables to normal random variables, the nonlinearity of a constraint function may increase. As a result, the transformation may lead to a large error in reliability calculation. In order to improve accuracy, a new reliability-based design method with Saddlepoint Approximation is proposed in this work. The strategy of sequential optimization and reliability assessment is employed where the reliability analysis is decoupled from deterministic optimization. The accurate First Order Saddlepoint method is used for reliability analysis in the original random space without any transformation, and the chance of increasing nonlinearity of a constraint function is therefore eliminated. The overall reliability-based design is conducted in a sequence of cycles of deterministic optimization and reliability analysis. In each cycle, the percentile value of the constraint function corresponding to the required reliability is calculated with the Saddlepoint Approximation at the optimal point of the deterministic optimization. Then the reliability analysis results are used to formulate a new deterministic optimization model for the next cycle. The solution process converges within a few cycles. The demonstrative examples show that the proposed method is more accurate and efficient than the reliability-based design with FORM.

Time-dependent system reliability is computed as the probability that the responses of a system do not exceed prescribed failure thresholds over a time duration of interest. In this work, an efficient time-dependent reliability analysis method is proposed for systems with bivariate responses which are general functions of random variables and stochastic processes. Analytical expressions are derived first for the single and joint upcrossing rates based on the first-order reliability method (FORM). Time-dependent system failure probability is then estimated with the computed single and joint upcrossing rates. The method can efficiently and accurately estimate different types of upcrossing rates for the systems with bivariate responses when FORM is applicable. In addition, the developed method is applicable to general problems with random variables, stationary, and nonstationary stochastic processes. As the general system reliability can be approximated with the results from reliability analyses for individual responses and bivariate responses, the proposed method can be extended to reliability analysis of general systems with more than two responses. Three examples, including a parallel system, a series system, and a hydrokinetic turbine blade application, are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.