Structure, Performance and Competitiveness in Indian Agricultural Exports

This thesis examines the validity of the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis in Honduras and compares the Honduran experience to that of other Central American countries, specifically Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala and Nicaragua. It further evaluates the ELG hypothesis for the agricultural sector of Honduras. The conceptual model incorporates exports into a Cobb-Douglas production function and formulates dynamic econometric models of real gross domestic product (GDP), real gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), labor and real exports for the 1970-2000 period. To test for the validity of the ELG hypothesis, Granger-causality was tested on the export coefficients of the growth equation of the vector autoregressive (VAR) or error correction (ECM) model for each country in the short run, long run and in both (in totality). The results indicate that, in El Salvador, evidence supporting the ELG hypothesis was found in the short-run and in totality, it was also found that the ELG hypothesis holds in the long-run for Guatemala and for the non agricultural sector of Honduras. In Nicaragua, exports were found to Granger cause economic growth in the long-run and in totality. No evidence was found to support the ELG hypothesis for Costa Rica, Honduras and the Ag-GDP sector of Honduras. The results imply that efforts being put forth by the government of Honduras to promote total agricultural exports are not sufficiently strong to lead to economic growth over the study period. The strong emphasis in the promotion of maquila exports in recent years, however, seems to have contributed to economic growth from export expansion. Honduras has experienced an expansion of non-traditional agricultural exports over the past two decades. Yet, agricultural exports continue to be dominated by traditional commodities (bananas and coffee). The 1990's brought along low world prices for these traditional products, thus contributing to a slow down in growth of the dollar value of agricultural exports. The efforts by the Honduran government to diversify agricultural exports are a recent experiment, but it seems that contributions of such exports to economic growth are not significantly detected from the 1970-2000 data.

How much do non‐tariff measures (NTMs) affect U.S. agricultural exports? While countries maintain a large and diverse set of NTMs to safeguard the health of plants, animals, and humans, policymakers and regulatory bodies may neglect the impact these measures have on international trade. This paper evaluates the impact of two broad types of NTMs important to U.S. food and agricultural exports: sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures and technical barriers to trade (TBTs). We construct a new database detailing the more prominent SPS and TBT measures impacting U.S. exports as highlighted in the Office of the United States Trade Representative's (USTR) National Trade Estimate (NTE) report from 2007 to 2021. Using a theoretically consistent gravity equation, we find that SPS and TBT measures reduce U.S. agricultural exports by 34.5%, on average, equivalent to a 16.4% ad valorem tariff. However, we find little evidence that these NTMs significantly affect the probability of U.S. exports or export survival in destination markets (i.e., the probability of export failure) suggesting that these measures primarily impact variable trade costs and the intensive margin of trade.

ABSTRACTWe study the effect of sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures on Chinese agricultural exports and the role of trade intermediaries in this process following China’s accession to the World Trade Organization. While both agricultural exports and SPS regulations have grown, the use of trade intermediaries has declined sharply. We develop a model of heterogeneous producer-level decisions about choice of export mode that is consistent with this trend. In our econometric analysis, we analyse the effects of SPS measures and trade intermediaries on Chinese fruit and vegetable exports using transaction-level customs data. In contrast to much of the literature, we find some evidence of positive relationships among SPS measures, trade intermediaries and exports.

Implementation of SPS/TBT Agreements - Experiences from Other Countries and Lessons for Vietnam

The increasing rate of Agricultural commodities wastages in our rural communities is alarming and this has a negative impact on Nigeria’s GDP and foreign earnings. If these commodities could be accumulated through proper marketing and storage means into an aggregate volume, it will serve as a means of improving the nation’s GDP and Forster the growth of foreign earnings through international trade. Thus this study termed the survey of exportable agricultural commodities in Okigwe agricultural zone of Imo State, Nigeria is aimed at exposing the agricultural potentials of our rural areas and identify important commodities with high export values. The objectives were to: obtain the volume of selected exportable agricultural commodities in the study area, and examine the factors affecting agricultural commodities exports in the study area. Data were collected from 135 respondents randomly selected from 9 enumerated areas (markets) with the aid of well structure questionnaires and supplementary oral interviews. Data collected were analyzed using descriptive statistics tools, and multiple regression model. From the regression analysis, this study identified price of the commodity X2, income of the marketer X3 and marital status X6 as the determinants of agricultural exportation in the zone as they were all significant at 1% confidence level. The study concluded that there is the abundance of agricultural commodities with export potentials in the zone and Nigeria’s agricultural export can be increased if there will be proper marketing means in the rural areas. Therefore, proper storage, marketing and export routs is a necessity in the country to improve the quality and ease of exporting our commodities from the country. However, a study to determine the quality of agricultural commodities produced in the study area will be very relevant.

Food security and sustainable development are among the critical issues of today. Addressing these challenges requires a focus on sectors that can simultaneously ensure food availability and foster sustainable progress. In this context, the agricultural sector serves as a driving force for both rural development and economic growth by enhancing productivity, promoting export-oriented strategies. This study examines Turkey's agricultural products' foreign trade situation, focusing on export-oriented development strategies. The research analyzes agricultural products' import and export data from the years between 2000 to 2023, obtained from the UN Comtrade database. The data consist of nine product groups within Chapters 06-14 of Section 2 of the Customs Tariff Schedule. Using statistical methods, including the Mann-Kendall and Sen's Slope Trend tests, the study investigates foreign trade trends and makes future projections. The results indicate that there is a general upward trend in exports. Export surpluses are expected in product groups such as live trees and other plants, vegetables, fruits, milling products, oilseeds, and vegetable materials for knitting. However, deficits persist in groups such as tea, coffee, spices, cereals, and lacquers, gums, and resins, where imports exceed exports. The most important export product group with the highest surplus is fruit, whereas the highest deficit ratio is observed in cereals. Based on the result of analysis, increasing Turkey's agricultural export performance holds strategic importance for rural development and economic growth. Therefore, reducing import dependency and promoting domestic production are essential for sustainable development in the agricultural sector. Additionally, supporting product groups with competitive advantages in agricultural exports and expanding their market share are recommended. The adoption of modern agricultural techniques, the training of farmers, and the development of rural infrastructure will also contribute to the sustainable growth of the sector and, in turn, support rural development. Structural transformation policies and improvements in the agricultural sector will contribute significantly to strengthening local economies and ensuring national economic stability by encouraging rural development.

India's agricultural products export touched $ 50 billion for the financial year FY22, the highest level ever achieved. Basmati and Non-basmati rice are major exports and doubled during 2010-20 compared to 2000-2010. Export value of basmati and non-basmati rice were about Rs. 32,000 crores and Rs. 23,000 crores respectively during 2019-20. Exports of processed vegetables, fruits, nuts and fresh grapes are growing nearly 3 times during 2010-2020 (Rs.500 crores each) compared to 2000-2010 (around Rs. 3,000 crores each). Exports of cucumbers, gherkins, jaggery and confectionary items are growing at a faster rate in the recent decade (Rs.400 crores during 2005-06 to Rs. 1600 crores during 2019-20). Export basket of agricultural commodities is highly diversified (Herfindahl Index: 0.09 – 0.26) and non-conventional exports like processed vegetables, fruits and vegetables are increasing in faster rate. Hence, policy support to the non-conventional and high value exports as well as small and new exporters has to be continued. Aggregation of small exports and Farmers Producers Companies will directly benefit the farmers.

The developments of the world trade requires the improvement of the competitiveness of products, including agricultural commodities. At the regional level, Indonesias agricultural commodities face the ASEAN free market competition. This study aims to identify and examine the competitiveness of Indonesian exports of several agricultural commodities in the international market by employing the index of competitiveness of trade specialization by trade specialization index (TSI), and the index of market penetration, by revealed comparative advantage (RCA). This study observed the HS 4 digit agricultural commodities, along 2011-2015. The study finds that the index of commodity trade specialization of estate crops sub-sector is in a stage of maturation of the world trade, or it has a very strong competitiveness. The food crops sub-sector stand on the introduction stage of the world trade or it has low competitiveness, or in other words, Indonesia is a net importer of the sector commodities. Although some of commodities have the strong competitiveness, but on the other hand, they do not have a strong comparative advantage. This is shown by the RCA value that less than 1. It means that a part of agricultural commodities, namely food crops, horticulture and estate, are still import oriented.The developments of the world trade requires the improvement of the competitiveness of products, including agricultural commodities. At the regional level, Indonesias agricultural commodities face the ASEAN free market competition. This study aims to identify and examine the competitiveness of Indonesian exports of several agricultural commodities in the international market by employing the index of competitiveness of trade specialization by trade specialization index (TSI), and the index of market penetration, by revealed comparative advantage (RCA). This study observed the HS 4 digit agricultural commodities, along 2011-2015. The study finds that the index of commodity trade specialization of estate crops sub-sector is in a stage of maturation of the world trade, or it has a very strong competitiveness. The food crops sub-sector stand on the introduction stage of the world trade or it has low competitiveness, or in other words, Indonesia is a net importer of the sector commodities. Although some of commodities have the strong competitiveness, but on the other hand, they do not have a strong comparative advantage. This is shown by the RCA value that less than 1. It means that a part of agricultural commodities, namely food crops, horticulture and estate, are still import oriented.

This chapter, on the intra-African food trade, builds upon the synopsis presented in Chapter 2 that situated Africa’s agriculture and food trade in Africa’s overall trade. Intra-African exports are second only to those to the European Union (EU) in importance as a market for exports of food and agricultural commodities and are dominated by trade in food products, while involving less trade in agricultural commodities. In contrast, agricultural commodities comprise a large share of Africa’s agricultural exports to countries in Asia, the Americas and elsewhere in the world. Intra-African trade also includes a large informal component in which trade in food products is correspondingly dominant.

In an attempt to disentangle the impact of sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures on trade patterns, we use the database on specific trade concerns on SPS measures of the WTO. Estimating various gravity model specifications at the HS4 disaggregated level of trade, we find that aggregated SPS measures constitute obstacles to agricultural and food trade consistently to all exporters. But conditional on market entry, trade flows are positively affected by SPS measures. In addition, we find that SPS measures related to conformity assessment hamper market entry, while SPS measures related to product characteristics increase bilateral trade flows conditional on meeting the standard.

This study employs a fixed-effects panel regression model with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors to analyze the relationship between agricultural export performance and Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) indicators across 45 African nations from 2000 to 2022. Export performance is measured through the per capita value of agricultural exports and a Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) of export product concentration, while controlling for GDP per capita, institutional quality, and population dynamics. The empirical results reveal statistically significant yet dualistic associations. A 1% increase in agricultural exports per capita is associated with a 1.25 percentage point reduction in poverty (p<0.05) and a 0.89 percentage point increase in annual GDP growth (p<0.01), suggesting a positive link to SDGs 1 and 8. However, this export growth is also correlated with a 0.83 point increase in the Gini coefficient (p<0.05), a 2.15% rise in agricultural CO₂ emissions (p<0.01), and a 1.98 percentage point loss in forest cover (p<0.01), highlighting severe trade-offs for SDGs 10, 13, and 15. Furthermore, a one-unit increase in export concentration (HHI) is associated with a 2.18 percentage point increase in poverty and a 1.12 percentage point decrease in forest area (p<0.05). The findings indicate that the scale and composition effects of export expansion dominate, overwhelming any potential technique effect from economic gains. We conclude that while agricultural exports are a significant correlate of macroeconomic growth in Africa, their benefits are not automatically inclusive or sustainable. The results robustly indicate that export diversification and strong institutions are critical mitigating factors against these trade-offs. Policy must therefore pivot from promoting raw commodity volume to strategically fostering value-added, diversified, and sustainably certified export sectors to align trade with the holistic 2030 Agenda.

The successful conclusion of the GATT Uruguay Round and the subsequent implementation of the agreements under the World Trade Organisation (WTO) have opened up access to new markets for agricultural commodities in both more developed and developing countries. South Asia, one of the major growers of agricultural commodity, and a major growth region in the present world, has bright prospects in exporting agricultural products. The trade prospect in South Asia is to be influenced by the region’s attempts in stabilisation, and reforming the economic policies as well as by changes in the external environment and internal policy adjustments to those changes. The principal external factors that need to be watched closely are: economic growth, inflation and interest rates in industrial countries, world commodity prices, international capital flows and world trade.KeywordsWorld Trade OrganisationAgricultural CommodityNominal TermUruguay RoundShrimp CultivationThese keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

The study examines the effect of foreign exchange fluctuation on the performance of agricultural export in Nigeria. Despite the emphasis place on foreign exchange, the agricultural export in Nigeria is still not performing well. Time frame was from 1986 to 2021 and the adopted research design was ex post facto, in which the tool of analysis employed was the ARDL, ECM method, co-integration and unit root test as finding revealed that foreign exchange fluctuation on the performance of agricultural volume and value added has negative and insignificant effect in Nigeria. While foreign exchange fluctuation on the performance of agricultural capacity utilization has a positive and significant impact. Giving this finding, recommendations are that Nigerian government should moderate and regulate the rate of exchange activities in order to make certain that it brings about better performance in the agricultural sector. Also, she should strongly attempt to make better the stand of the economy internationally with other nations of the world in order to expand the market for Nigerian agricultural exports. Finally, the government should change the focus of its policy in direction to the external agricultural sector and making sure that it adds in the most favourably way to output performance. As an intentional policy, the government should give support to rural area agriculture by which investors in distinct communities and commodities should be encourage to set up agricultural industries, which will be solely on local raw materials comprising equipment and machines.

Foreign trade significantly contributes to the economic development of countries by securing essential goods, increasing production and revenues, creating job opportunities, reducing poverty, and enhancing individual welfare. In Egypt, agricultural exports represent a crucial component of the export structure and greatly benefit from trade agreements with global economic blocs. However, Egypt's trade balance suffers from a persistent and growing deficit, necessitating an individual evaluation of the impact of Egypt's membership in each economic bloc. The study's objectives include analyzing the commodity and geographical distribution of Egypt's agricultural exports to major global economic blocs, examining policies and mechanisms supporting the development of these exports, and identifying the obstacles they face. The research methodology relies on the use of the Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR), which enables the analysis of the reciprocal effects between variables and the study of dynamic interactions among them. The model is characterized by its accuracy and flexibility in measuring the relationship between trade policies and the development of agricultural exports, along with forecasting future impacts of these policies. The theoretical framework of the model focuses on linking current observations to previous ones of the variables under study, with all variables being equally included in the analysis without restrictions. The model allows for precise measurement of the reciprocal effects between independent and dependent variables, providing a comprehensive understanding of the impact of trade policies on the performance of Egypt's agricultural exports.

Prices of agricultural commodities generally play an important role in the world market. However, it is important to know that the price and quantity relationship has been modified by other economic variables such as the recent accumulation of external debts and the sluggish growth of the world economy. This is especially true for heavily indebted developing countries. In general, import demand for agricultural commodities in both developing and developed countries is not sensitive to the prices of commodities (Sarris and Freebairn). Developed countries might import the quantity of agricultural products needed regardless of the price of the commodity for the following reasons (e.g., Japan): (a) most agricultural commodities (mainly grains) are a necessity; (b) the total value of agricultural imports is a small portion of the country's gross national product (GNP). On the other hand, developing countries tend to increase their imports of agricultural commodities for nutrition-based need when the prices are low and reduce their imports by substituting domestically produced commodities when prices are high. The price and quantity relationship, however, is influenced by the general economic conditions (e.g., external debt, balance of payments deficit, and growth rate of GNP) in developing countries. Interdependence between agricultural trade and macroeconomic variables such as debts, GNP growth, and the balance of payments is so complex that it is not easily modeled for empirically testing the hypotheses developed in the relevant economic theory. The topic of this section is, therefore, timely. The authors analyzed the complex trade issues related to foreign debt in developing countries, the origins of the recent external debt crisis, the implications of economic adjustments to service the debt, and impacts on agricultural trade. Grigsby and Pagoulatos focused on the recent accumulation of external debt in the Latin American countries and the implications of the debt on agricultural trade. Dutton, Grennes, and Johnson first eXamined direct and indirect effects of international capital flows on commodity trade and then discussed impacts of external debt on U.S. agricultural exports. Finally, Katz focused his presentation on the world bank's policy toward those countries with external debt problems. Their discussions were well grounded on relevant economic theory and provided valuable information in specifying empirical models in this subject area. Regarding the origins of the external debt in Latin American countries, Grigsby and Pagoulatos argue that the recent accumulation of external debts would be due mainly to (a) the sharp increase in oil prices, (b) high real interest rates, (c) overvalued exchange rates in high debt countries, and (d) aggressive lending policy of commercial banks in developed countries. The paper did not examine external debt caused by increased protectionism in developed countries. Some portion of developing countries' debt could be attributed, to some extent, to increased protectionism in developed countries that resulted in reductions in the quantities of agricultural and nonagricultural commodities traded in the world market. Sound economic growth based on foreign trade could generate enough capital to pay interest and principal of external debt (e.g., Korea). The opportunity to increase exports in some countries has been generally blocked by interventions in foreign trade markets. As an alternative, debtor countries have attempted to solve the problems by reducing imports and at the same time by exporting Won W. Koo is a professor of agricultural economics at North Dakota State University. North Dakota Agricultural Experiment Station Journal Article No. 1530.