Terrestrial Carbon Storage Estimation in Guangdong Province (2000–2021)

Against the background of "carbon neutrality" and sustainable development goals, it is of great significance to assess the carbon storage changes and sustainability of terrestrial ecosystems in order to maintain the coordinated sustainable development of regional ecological economies and the balance of terrestrial ecosystems. In this study, the terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage in Guizhou from 2010 to 2020 was assessed with the InVEST model. Using the PLUS model, the distribution of terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage by 2030 and 2050 was predicted. The current sustainable development level of the terrestrial ecosystem of Guizhou was evaluated after establishing an index system based on SDGs. The results showed the following: (1) From 2010 to 2020, the terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage decreased by 1106.68 × 104 Mg. The area and carbon storage of the forest and farmland ecosystems decreased while the area and carbon storage of the grassland and settlement ecosystems increased. (2) Compared with 2020, the terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage will be reduced by 4091.43 × 104 Mg by 2030. Compared with 2030, the terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage will continue to decrease by 3833.25 × 104 Mg by 2050. (3) In 2020, the average score of the sustainable development of the terrestrial ecosystem was 0.4300. Zunyi City had the highest sustainable development score of 0.6255, and Anshun had the lowest sustainable development score of 0.3236. Overall, the sustainable development of the terrestrial ecosystem of Guizhou was found to be high in the north, low in the south, high in the east, and low in the west. The sustainable regional development of the terrestrial ecosystem of Guizhou was found to be unbalanced, and the carbon storage of the terrestrial ecosystem will keep decreasing in the future. In order to improve the sustainable development capacity of the terrestrial ecosystem, the government needs to take certain measures, such as returning farmland to forests and grasslands, curbing soil erosion, and actively supervising.

A regression model was built for the relationship between carbon density, temperature, and precipitation in the terrestrial ecosystem of Anhui Province in the base year （2010）. Based on the actual changes in climate and land cover from 2010 to 2020, the carbon density of various land types in 2020 was calculated while the changes in carbon storage were simulated quantitatively in the province under the dual driving forces of nature and human activities. Using the four future climate scenarios proposed by CMIP6 and the future land cover simulated by the PLUS model, the carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems in Anhui Province in 2030 and 2060 was predicted. The results indicate that： ① This multiple linear regression equation （R2=0.886 75） better confirmed the existing research conclusions that the interannual temperature rise accelerated soil organic carbon decomposition, and the increase in precipitation promoted vegetation biomass accumulation in the transition zone from warm temperate to northern subtropical regions in eastern China. ② From 2010 to 2020, the overall temperature in Anhui Province slightly decreased, and precipitation slightly increased, resulting in an increase of 89.81 Tg in carbon storage caused by climate change. The main trend of land cover change was the outward expansion of construction land, which occupied surrounding arable land, resulting in a reduction of 6.11 Tg in carbon storage. As a result, the carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems in Anhui Province increased from 2 097.07 Tg in 2010 to 2 180.77 Tg in 2020, with an average annual carbon sequestration rate per unit area （calculated as C） of 59.76 g·（m2·a）-1. ③ From 2020 to 2030, under the SSP1-2.6 （low emission） scenario, the overall temperature in Anhui Province decreased narrowly, and precipitation increased, resulting in a slight increase in carbon density in all six land types. Driven by both climate change （91.6% contribution） and human activities （8.4% contribution）, carbon storage increased by 142.84 Tg over the next 10 years, reaching 2 323.61 Tg in 2030, with an average annual carbon sequestration rate per unit area （calculated as C） of 101.96 g·（m2·a）-1. In the SSP2-4.5 （medium emission）, SSP3-7.0 （competition）, and SSP5-8.5 （high emission） scenarios, there were varying degrees of warming, resulting in a corresponding decrease in carbon density and carbon storage by 2030. The SSP3-7.0 （competition） scenario had the smallest relative decrease. ④ From 2030 to 2060, due to the further increase in temperature under the four scenarios, carbon density in all six land types was predicted to decrease. In addition, relatively high-density carbon sequestration farmland would continue to be significantly transformed into low-density carbon sequestration towns, resulting in a significant decrease in carbon storage in all four scenarios. In the SSP3-7.0 （competitive） scenario in 2060, carbon storage was relatively highest compared to that in the other three scenarios.

Enhancing carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems has become a key strategy for mitigating climate change. The Tibetan Plateau holds a pivotal position in achieving carbon neutrality, with the structural pattern of its land use types directly impacting the region’s ecosystem carbon storage capacity. However, there is still a lack of understanding of the spatial distribution of carbon storage in their ecosystems. This study targeted the Tibetan Plateau, utilizing land use data from 2000 to 2020, and employed the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model to project land use patterns for 2030. By integrating future climate change projections, this study forecasted land use under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model was employed to quantify carbon storage from 2000 to 2030, while the GeoDetector model was used to explore the driving influences of factors such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), Leaf Area Index (LAI), Net Primary Productivity (NPP), population density, and road network density on carbon storage. The results revealed that: (1) Grassland predominated the land use types on the Tibetan Plateau, with most types having a stability of over 70%, whereas significant changes were observed in the western Tibet Autonomous Region and southern Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. (2) Carbon storage on the Tibetan Plateau generally followed a tendency towards an initial decrease followed by an increase, with an average annual reduction of 50,107,371.79 Mg. The SSP1-2.6 scenario demonstrated the most substantial increase in carbon storage, being 18 times the natural trend, while the SSP5-8.5 scenario indicated the largest decrease. (3) Over the two decades, NDVI emerged as the most influential driver of carbon storage on the Tibetan Plateau, which was maintained at around 0.4, with the interaction between NDVI and NDWI exerting the strongest driving force, which was maintained at around 0.45. The conversion to forestland and grassland was the primary factor accounting for the change in carbon storage. Based on these results, despite the absence of empirical carbon density data, the SSP1-2.6 scenario could be regarded as a reference pathway for carbon storage changes on the Tibetan Plateau. Solely focusing on enhancing carbon storage by converting low-carbon land uses to high-carbon land uses is misguided; sustainable development represents the optimal approach for augmenting carbon storage on the Tibetan Plateau.

Land use change drives carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems. Understanding the spatio-temporal varia-tion of land use and carbon storage is important for improving carbon sink capacity and achieving the carbon neutrality goal. With InVEST-PLUS model, we evaluated spatio-temporal variation of land use change and ecosystem carbon storage in Hebei Province, explored their variations from 2000 to 2020, and predicted land use changes and carbon storage in 2040. The results showed that cultivated land, forest, and grassland were dominant vegetation types from 2000 to 2020. The area of cultivated land decreased by 7011.1 km2, and the construction land increased by 7479.6 km2. The conversion of cultivated land to construction land was the predominant form of land transfer. Carbon storage in Hebei decreased by 3.6×107 t from 2000 to 2020, with the conversion of cultivated land and grassland to construction land being the main reason for such rapid decline of carbon storage. Carbon storage was higher in the northwest and lower in the southeast. From 2020 to 2040, under natural development scenario, ecological protection scenario, and economic development scenario, the carbon storage of Hebei Province would increase by 4.0×107, 5.1×107, and 5.9×107 t, respectively. The main carbon pools will still be cultivated land, forest, and grassland. In the future, it would be necessary to protect carbon sequestration resources such as forest and grassland, optimize land use pattern with the goal of reducing carbon emissions, and protect areas with high carbon density to further enhance their carbon sequestration capacity.

Land use change is an important reason for changes in carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems. Therefore, analyzing the impact of land use change on carbon storage is important for exploring the sustainable development of cities and improving the value of ecosystem services. Taking Changchun City in the northeast of China as the research area, this paper simulates land use patterns under three scenarios up to 2030 using the FLUS model and assesses carbon storage from 2010 to 2030 using the InVEST model. It estimates the impact of land use change on carbon storage under several scenarios in Changchun. The results show that cultivated land plays an important role in carbon storage in Changchun. The transfer of cultivated land to construction land has been the main land use type conversion over the past decade, which has led to most of the carbon storage loss. In the natural growth scenario, the carbon storage would decline further. In the cultivated land protection scenario, meanwhile, this situation would be greatly improved. In the ecological protection scenario, the carbon storage would be increased due to the protection of ecological land. In the future, we should protect existing resources while simultaneously comprehensively improving the economic, social, and ecological benefits of the land.

An analysis of regional carbon stock response under land use structure change and multi-scenario prediction, a case study of Hefei, China

Abstract. The soil organic carbon pool is a crucial component of carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems, playing a key role in regulating the carbon cycle and mitigating atmospheric CO2 concentration increases. To combat soil degradation and enhance soil organic carbon on the Loess Plateau, the Grain-for-Green Program (GFGP) has been implemented. Accurately quantifying change in soil organic carbon stock (ΔSOC) resulting from farmland retirement is essential for informing land use management. In this study, the spatial and temporal distribution of retired farmlands on the Loess Plateau was analyzed using Landsat imagery from 1999–2021. To assess the effects of the years since retirement, climate, soil properties, elevation, and other factors on ΔSOC, climate-zone-specific multivariable linear regression models were developed based on field-sampled soil data. These models were then used to map ΔSOC across the retired farmlands. Results indicated that a total of 39 065 km2 of farmland was retired over the past two decades, with 45.61 % converted to grasslands, 29.75 % to shrublands, and 24.64 % to forestlands. The years since retirement showed a significant positive correlation with ΔSOC, and distinct models were developed for different climatic zones to achieve high-resolution (30 m) ΔSOC mapping. The total ΔSOC from retired farmland on the Loess Plateau was estimated at 21.77 Tg in carbon equivalent, with grasslands contributing 81.10 %, followed by forestlands (11.16 %) and shrublands (7.74 %). The associated datasets are freely available at 30 m resolution from 2000 to 2021 (Yang, 2025, https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.28785971).

Land use change is a key factor affecting the carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems. Most studies focus on formulating different land development strategies to mitigate the adverse impacts of land development, while fewer discuss the effectiveness of these strategies. In the context of varying socio-economic development and limited budgets for ecological conservation, evaluating effectiveness is essential for selecting the most suitable land development strategy. This research proposed a Patch-Generating Land Use Simulation-Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs–Propensity Score Matching (PLUS-InVEST-PSM) model to evaluate the effectiveness of different land use development strategies in the Greater Bay Area of China as a case study. Specifically, this study analyzed the historical land use changes from 2000 to 2020 and mapped the multi-scenario patterns of land use and carbon storage with the PLUS and the InVEST models from 2030 to 2050. Then, this study employed the PSM model, along with a series of criteria (i.e., similar ecological backgrounds and parallel historical trends), to evaluate the effectiveness of the ecological development strategy and ecological protection redlines on carbon storage compared with the natural development strategy. The results indicate that the ecological development strategy and the ecological protection redline can prevent the decline in carbon storage. However, in the ecological development strategy, implementing the ecological redline policy may hinder the growth of carbon storage within the ecological redline area. Compared with the PLUS-InVEST-PSM model, the comparison between the subregions could underestimate the efficiencies of evaluation, partly due to underestimating the negative impact of urban development on carbon storage. These findings will help governments develop comprehensive and systematic land use policies to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. Also, the approach would help to further explore the broader impacts of land use development strategies on the overall regional ecological environment, such as biodiversity and ecosystem services.

Microplastics (MPs) are carbon-rich polymers that are ubiquitous in the environment. With the increase of plastic production, microplastic pollution may be exacerbated and result in significant changes in microbial communities and biogeochemical processes such as carbon cycling, eventually impacting greenhouse gas emission and carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems. However, current research on the effect of MPs on soil carbon cycling is still limited, and there is a lack of systematic review of the scattered information obtained from previous studies. Accordingly, this review provides a systematic overview of the current knowledge on the effects of MPs on soil carbon cycling and gives future research suggestions. Emerging evidence indicates that MPs could affect soil carbon stability and CO 2 and CH 4 emission by modifying soil physicochemical and microbiological properties; though biodegradable MPs often exhibit a greater effect than nonbiodegradable ones, the specific effects are highly dependent on plastic type, size and concentration. The specific mechanisms of MPs’ impact on soil carbon cycles remain elusive, which are discussed mainly from the perspective of microbial changes, including microbial biomass, microbial community composition, and key enzymes and functional genes associated with carbon metabolism. Further research is needed to elucidate whether MPs have a positive priming effect on soil carbon decomposition and the biotic and abiotic mechanisms involved. This review paper helps researchers gain a clearer picture of how and through which way MPs impact carbon cycling in soil ecosystems.

Land use changes can affect soil carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems by altering either the biotic or the abiotic processes involved in carbon cycling, such as the adsorption of carbon on soil minerals. In this study, the organic carbon contents and their stable carbon isotopic compositions (δ13C) of five soil profiles under different land uses in the Maolan karst region in Southwest China were analyzed. Four non-forest samples from the karst were selected and examined to determine whether farmlands or grasslands that were converted from forestland were more effective in sequestering carbon in soils. The soil organic carbon (SOC) contents decreased in the following order: virgin forest, burnt grassland, shrubland, grassland, and farmland. However, no differences were observed in the δ13C values at the bottom of the five profiles, which indicated that most of the soil organic carbon was derived from the original virgin forest. The percentages of SOC that resulted from C4 plants in the virgin forest were significantly lower than the percentages in the other plots, while the percentages of SOC that resulted from C3 plants in the virgin forest were significantly higher than the percentages in the other plots. The δ13C values in the topsoils of the various profiles decreased in the following order: burnt grassland, farmland, grassland, shrubland, and virgin forest. From the surface to the base of the farmland profiles, little variation occurred in the δ13C values of the SOC (from -25.1 to -29.1‰). This variation in the δ13C values of the SOC in the surface soils was associated with changes in the vegetation cover. In addition, our results suggest that the plant functional type is important for controlling the depth-related changes in the SOC contents and the δ13C values of the SOC.

We summarize the results of a recent interagency assessment of land carbon dynamics in Alaska, in which carbon dynamics were estimated for all major terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems for the historical period (1950-2009) and a projection period (2010-2099). Between 1950 and 2009, upland and wetland (i.e., terrestrial) ecosystems of the state gained 0.4TgC/yr (0.1% of net primary production, NPP), resulting in a cumulative greenhouse gas radiative forcing of 1.68×10-3 W/m2 . The change in carbon storage is spatially variable with the region of the Northwest Boreal Landscape Conservation Cooperative (LCC) losing carbon because of fire disturbance. The combined carbon transport via various pathways through inland aquatic ecosystems of Alaska was estimated to be 41.3TgC/yr (17% of terrestrial NPP). During the projection period (2010-2099), carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems of Alaska was projected to increase (22.5-70.0TgC/yr), primarily because of NPP increases of 10-30% associated with responses to rising atmospheric CO2 , increased nitrogen cycling, and longer growing seasons. Although carbon emissions to the atmosphere from wildfire and wetland CH4 were projected to increase for all of the climate projections, the increases in NPP more than compensated for those losses at the statewide level. Carbon dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems continue to warm the climate for four of the six future projections and cool the climate for only one of the projections. The attribution analyses we conducted indicated that the response of NPP in terrestrial ecosystems to rising atmospheric CO2 (~5% per 100 ppmv CO2 ) saturates as CO2 increases (between approximately +150 and +450 ppmv among projections). This response, along with the expectation that permafrost thaw would be much greater and release large quantities of permafrost carbon after 2100, suggests that projected carbon gains in terrestrial ecosystems of Alaska may not be sustained. From a national perspective, inclusion of all of Alaska in greenhouse gas inventory reports would ensure better accounting of the overall greenhouse gas balance of the nation and provide a foundation for considering mitigation activities in areas that are accessible enough to support substantive deployment.

<title>Abstract</title> Carbon storage in vegetation sustains climate regulation by facilitating carbon sequestration (CS). varying abilities of plant species to sequester, retain, and emit carbon make their collective functional traits pivotal in deriving carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems. However, combined impacts of stand structures and functional traits on multi-layered above-ground carbon storage across forest strata, and their shifts along the altitudinal gradients in single-species forests, remain understudied. Using data from 195 quadrates (20 × 20m²) across five monodominant <italic>Quercus incana</italic> forests in Hindu Himalayas, we analyzed relationship between stand structures, functional traits, and yearly CS. SEM used to assess direct and indirect influences of elevation, stand structural attributes DBH, H, CA, FB, and functional traits on carbon storage. The results showed that stand structures strongly influenced carbon storage, with significant correlations in Zone2 (1524 m; β = 0.144, p = 0.04), Zone3 (2000–2300 m; β = 0.272, p = 0.001), and Zone5 (2400-2700m; β = 0.306, p = 0.001). Functional traits exhibited elevation specific effects, BT and WD correlated positively with carbon in Zone3,5 (p = 0.001) but weakened in Zone1,2 (p &gt; 0.05). Leaf traits LDMC, LT showed significant positive correlation in Zone5 (p = 0.001), while SLA had inconsistent effect, including slightly negative in Zone4 (p ~ 0.05). Our study illustrates that the effect of stand structures and functional traits on carbon storage are forest strata and elevation mediated, serving as key predictors of CS across elevations. Prioritizing these factors bid a robust framework for modeling how traits derive under climate change, particularly monodominant forests. This approach augments predictive accuracy in assessing climate carbon feedback and informs targeted ecosystem management.

The carbon cycle of forest ecosystems plays a key role in regulating CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. Research on carbon storage estimation of forest ecosystems has become a major research topic. However, carbon budgets of subtropical forest ecosystems have received little attention. Reports of soil carbon storage and topographic heterogeneity of carbon storage are limited. This study focused on the Jinggang Mountain National Nature Reserve as an example of a mid-subtropical forest and evaluated soil and vegetation carbon storage by field sampling combined with GIS, RS and GPS technology. We classified the forest into nine forest types using ALOS high-resolution remote sensing images. The evergreen broad-leaved forest has the largest area, occupying 26.5% of the total area, followed by coniferous and broad-leaved mixed forests and warm temperate coniferous forest, occupying 24.2 and 22.9%, respectively. The vegetation and soil carbon storage of the whole forest ecosystem were 1,692,344 and 5,514,707 t, with a carbon density of 7.4 and 24.2 kg/m2, respectively, which suggests that the ecosystem has great carbon storage capacity. The topographic heterogeneity of the carbon storage was also analysed. The largest vegetation storage and soil storage is at 700–800 and 1000–1100 m, respectively. The vegetation carbon storage is highest in the southeast, south and southwest.

The chapter starts with a discussion of general patterns and processes in terrestrial ecosystems, including the impacts of climate change in relation to productivity, phenology, trophic matches and mismatches, range shifts and biodiversity. Climate impacts on specific ecosystem types—forests, grasslands, heathlands, and mires and peatlands—are then discussed in detail. The chapter concludes by discussing links between changes in inland ecosystems and the wider North Sea system. Future climate change is likely to increase net primary productivity in the North Sea region due to warmer conditions and longer growing seasons, at least if summer precipitation does not decrease as strongly as projected in some of the more extreme climate scenarios. The effects of total carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems are highly uncertain, due to the inherent complexity of the processes involved. For moderate climate change, land use effects are often more important drivers of total ecosystem carbon accumulation than climate change. Across a wide range of organism groups, range expansions to higher latitudes and altitudes and changes in phenology have occurred in response to recent climate change. For the range expansions, some studies suggest substantial differences between organism groups. Habitat specialists with restricted ranges have generally responded very little or even shown range contractions. Many of already threatened species could be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Overall, effects of recent climate change on terrestrial ecosystems within the North Sea region are still limited.

Carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems plays a vital role in climate control. However, urban expansion and damage to natural areas, especially the rise of megalopolises, have affected carbon storage. To mitigate this damage, various policies have been established by international, domestic, and local governments. This study focuses on the establishment and management of environmental protection areas and analyzes their impact on carbon storage. The study targets the cities of Gyeonggi-do province, South Korea, which make up a representative megalopolis, and the effectiveness of protected areas was analyzed by typifying the cities based on the proportion of available development areas and environmentally protected areas. In this study, the SLEUTH (Slope, Land-use, Excluded Area, Urban, Transportation, Hillshade) land-use change model was used to predict future land-use changes, and carbon storage was estimated using the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs) Carbon model. When operating the model, we tested a control group scenario that only preserves the water zone, a scenario that preserves the legally protected areas, and a scenario that protects the areas with high environmental value. There are two significant effects of setting up protected areas: First, the “development inhibition effect” of reducing the development area itself. Second, the “development replacement effect” of moving development to relatively low environmental value areas. These two effects differ depending on the availability of development areas, with “development replacement effects” prominent in areas with high development availability and “development inhibition effects” predominant in areas with low development availability. Future policies for setting up and managing protected areas can be used in megalopolis in conjunction with policies focusing on securing the area of carbon sinks.