The last deglaciation simulated with a coupled atmosphere/ocean/ice sheet/solid earth model

During deglaciation disintegration of large-scale continental ice sheets represents a continuous threat to reduce the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) via meltwater perturbations to the northern high latitudes. Nevertheless, an abrupt AMOC recovery is detected half-way through the last deglaciation and  a growing number of studies using Earth System Models (ESMs) of varying complexity have shown that atmospheric CO2 concentrations and ice sheet volume can influence the operational mode of the AMOC, eventually including the coexistence of multiple states and associated threshold behavior for intermediate climate states between full glacial (e.g. Last Glacial Maximum, LGM) and full interglacial (e.g. pre-industrial, PD)  conditions. In this study we present results from coordinated sensitivity experiments conducted as part of the German climate modeling initiative (PalMod), using three complex ESMs (AWI-ESM, CESM and MPI-ESM). Besides differences in the impact of CO2 and ice volume changes, we also investigate how variations in these boundary conditions control the AMOC sensitivity to deglacial meltwater injections in the North Atlantic. We find that the AMOC strength responds to ice sheet and/or CO2 changes in all models, with partly opposing effects.  A similar AMOC strength for PD and LGM conditions is detected in AWI-ESM and MPI-ESM, while CESM shows a weaker LGM AMOC. This weaker LGM state is also characterized by a relatively pronounced AMOC sensitivity to freshwater perturbations. Our inter-comparison experiments suggest that this specific behavior in CESM can be detected for atmospheric concentrations between LGM and intermediate levels of ~220 ppm. This further corroborates in particular the impact of CO2 changes to modulate the trajectory of deglacial climate changes by an alteration of the AMOC susceptibility to meltwater injections as recently suggested (Sun et al., Glob. Planet. Change, 2021; Barker & Knorr, Nat. Commun., 2021).   

Abstract. The North Sea Last Interglacial sea level is sensitive to the fingerprint of mass loss from polar ice sheets. However, the signal is complicated by the influence of glacial isostatic adjustment driven by Penultimate Glacial Period ice-sheet changes, and yet these ice-sheet geometries remain significantly uncertain. Here, we produce new reconstructions of the Eurasian ice sheet during the Penultimate Glacial Maximum (PGM) by employing large ensemble experiments from a simple ice-sheet model that depends solely on basal shear stress, ice extent, and topography. To explore the range of uncertainty in possible ice geometries, we use a parameterised shear-stress map as input that has been developed to incorporate bedrock characteristics and the influence of ice-sheet basal processes. We perform Bayesian uncertainty quantification, utilising Gaussian process emulation, to calibrate against global ice-sheet reconstructions of the Last Deglaciation and rule out combinations of input parameters that produce unrealistic ice sheets. The refined parameter space is then applied to the PGM to create an ensemble of constrained 3D Eurasian ice-sheet geometries. Our reconstructed PGM Eurasian ice-sheet volume is 48±8 m sea-level equivalent (SLE). We find that the Barents–Kara Sea region displays both the largest mean volume and volume uncertainty of 24±8 m SLE while the British–Irish sector volume of 1.7±0.2 m SLE is the smallest. Our new workflow may be applied to other locations and periods where ice-sheet histories have limited empirical data.

The recent publication of the summary for policy makers by Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [1] has injected a renewed sense of urgency to address climate change. It is therefore timely to review the notion of preventing 'dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system' as put forward in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The article by Danny Harvey in this issue [2] offers a fresh perspective by rephrasing the concept of 'dangerous interference' as a problem of risk assessment. As Harvey points out, identification of 'dangerous interference' does not require us to know with certainty that future climate change will be dangerous—an impossible task given that our knowledge about future climate change includes uncertainty. Rather, it requires the assertion that interference would lead to a significant probability of dangerous climate change beyond some risk tolerance, and therefore would pose an unacceptable risk.

Abrupt climate changes in the past have been attributed to variations in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strength. However, the exact timing and magnitude of past AMOC shifts remain elusive, which continues to limit our understanding of the driving mechanisms of such climate variability. Here we show a consistent signal of the 231Pa/230Th proxy that reveals a spatially coherent picture of western Atlantic circulation changes over the last deglaciation, during abrupt millennial-scale climate transitions. At the onset of deglaciation, we observe an early slowdown of circulation in the western Atlantic from around 19 to 16.5 thousand years ago (ka), consistent with the timing of accelerated Eurasian ice melting. The subsequent weakened AMOC state persists for over a millennium (~16.5–15 ka), during which time there is substantial ice rafting from the Laurentide ice sheet. This timing indicates a role for melting ice in driving a two-step AMOC slowdown, with a positive feedback sustaining continued iceberg calving and climate change during Heinrich Stadial 1.

The last two deglaciations mark transitions from glacial to interglacial climates, dramatically reshaping Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. Numerical modelling of these transitions provides critical insight into the processes controlling ice-sheet retreat and collapse. Comparing the last two deglaciations allows us to evaluate how different forcings and initial conditions influence ice-sheet dynamics and understand the interplay between orbital forcing, greenhouse gases, abrupt climate changes and ice sheet instabilities in driving ice sheet evolution.We use the fast yet comprehensive coupled General Circulation Atmosphere–ice-sheet model FAMOUS–BISICLES to simulate the Northern Hemisphere ice-sheet evolution during the penultimate deglaciation (140–128 thousand years ago; ka) and the last deglaciation (21-7 ka), with particular interest in the abrupt Bølling warming (14.5 ka). Our simulations follow the PMIP4 (Palaeoclimate Model Intercomparison Project 4) protocols and are forced with prescribed sea surface temperatures and sea ice from transient climate model outputs to reduce biases and force millennial abrupt climate changes.First, we compare the penultimate and last deglaciations to assess how orbital forcing, greenhouse gas concentrations, and uncertain model parameters and SST inputs shape both the pace and spatial patterns of ice retreat. Results indicate a faster ice retreat during the penultimate deglaciation. Sensitivity experiments show that the rate of deglaciation is particularly sensitive to processes that impact the surface mass balance, but ice dynamics also play an important role. Sub-shelf melt rate is less significant; however, it can be important where confined ice shelves are able to form. Although insolation drives the deglaciations, rising greenhouse gases and warming SSTs significantly amplify the ice-sheet response to orbital forcing.Second, we focus on the abrupt Bølling warming (~14.5 ka). Our simulations show accelerated deglaciation during this event, though the magnitude of response depends on the ice-sheet topography during the warming and on the pattern of abrupt SST increase prescribed. Marine-based sections, particularly the Barents–Kara ice sheet, exhibit the greatest sensitivity to prescribed ocean changes.

Abstract. During the last deglaciation, the climate evolves from a cold state at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) at 21 ka (thousand years ago) with large ice sheets to the warm Holocene at ∼9 ka with reduced ice sheets. The deglacial ice sheet melt can impact the climate through multiple ways: changes of topography and albedo, bathymetry and coastlines, and freshwater fluxes (FWFs). In the PMIP4 (Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project – Phase 4) protocol for deglacial simulations, these changes can be accounted for or not depending on the modelling group choices. In addition, two ice sheet reconstructions are available (ICE-6G_C and GLAC-1D). In this study, we evaluate all these effects related to ice sheet changes on the climate using the iLOVECLIM model of intermediate complexity. We show that the two reconstructions yield the same warming to a first order but with a different amplitude (global mean temperature of 3.9 ∘C with ICE-6G_C and 3.8 ∘C with GLAC-1D) and evolution. We obtain a stalling of temperature rise during the Antarctic Cold Reversal (ACR, from ∼14 to ∼12 ka) similar to proxy data only with the GLAC-1D ice sheet reconstruction. Accounting for changes in bathymetry in the simulations results in a cooling due to a larger sea ice extent and higher surface albedo. Finally, freshwater fluxes result in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) drawdown, but the timing in the simulations disagrees with proxy data of ocean circulation changes. This questions the causal link between reconstructed freshwater fluxes from ice sheet melt and recorded AMOC weakening.

This report is an overview of glacial limits and glacial history on the plains in northern Montana and northeastern North Dakota (long 102?-114?W.) and also in adjacent southern Alberta and Saskatchewan, Canada. In the Rocky Mountains and on the plains adjacent to the mountains in Montana, the map also depicts spatial relations of valley glaciers and piedmont ice lobes to continental ice sheets. Glacial limits east of 102?, in the United States and also in adjacent Canada, are depicted on published maps of the U.S. Geological Survey Quaternary Geologic Atlas of the United States (I-1420) map series. The limits shown here are from data compiled for the Lethbridge, Regina, Yellowstone, and Big Horn Mountains 4? x 6? quadrangles in the Quaternary Geologic Atlas series. This geospatial database has been prepared with a degree of detail appropriate for viewing at a scale of 1:1,000,000. Because of the degree of generalization required, the map is intended for regional analysis, rather than for detailed analysis in specific areas. It depicts the geographic positions of the limits of mountain and continental glaciations and the limits of selected glacial readvances. That information provides a foundation for reconstruction of geologic history and for reconstruction. The base map is simplified. Selected hydrographic features, selected towns and cities, selected physiographic features, and a grid of 1? x 2? topographic quadrangles are included to aid the reader in location of the glacial limits and other features that are depicted here on other maps at different scales. Most of the geologic data were compiled at 1:250,000 scale. The nominal reading scale of the digitized map data is 1:1,000,000. Enlargement will not restore resolution that was lost by simplification or generalization of data. Accompanying illustrations show regional directions of ice movement from Canada into the United States during maximum Illinoian glaciation, during maximum late Wisconsin glaciation, and during a later regional glacial readvance maximum

Most numerical models of present ice-sheet dynamics predict basal thermal conditions for an assumed geothermal heat flux and measured ice thickness, surface temperature, and snow precipitation. These models are not ideally suited for reconstructing former ice sheets because what is known for present ice sheets is unknown for former ones, and vice versa. In particular, geothermal heat fluxes are immeasurable at an ice-sheet bed but can be measured after the ice sheet is gone, and the thermal conditions predicted at an ice-sheet bed can be inferred from the glacial-geological–topographic record after the ice sheet is gone. The Maine CLIMAP ice-sheet reconstruction model uses these inferred basal thermal conditions to compute ice thicknesses from basal shear stresses. Basal shear stress is assumed to reflect the degree of ice–bed coupling which, in turn, is assumed to reflect the amount and distribution of basal water under the ice sheet. Under the ice-sheet interior, basal water exists in a thin film of constant thickness covering the low places on the bed. This film expands for a melting bed and contracts for a freezing bed. Along the ice-sheet margin, basal water exists in narrow channels of varying thickness corresponding to troughs on the bed. These water channels become deeper for a melting bed and shallower for a freezing bed. In areas covered by the Laurentide and Scandinavian ice sheets, myriads of interconnected lakes in regions of greatest postglacial rebound are interpreted as evidence suggesting the interior basal water distribution, whereas eskers pointed toward terminal moraines and troughs across continental shelves are interpreted as evidence suggesting the basal water distribution toward the margins. Continental-shelf troughs were assumed to correspond to former ice streams, by analogy with observations in Greenland and Antarctica. Three modes of glacial erosion are considered to be responsible for the lakes, eskers, troughs, and associated topography. Quarrying is by a freeze-thaw mechanism which occurs where the melting-point isotherm intersects bedrock, so it is important only for freezing or melting beds because high places on the bed are frozen, low places are melted, and minor basal temperature fluctuations shift the isotherm separating them. Crushing results when rocks at the ice-bed interface are ground against each other and the bed by glacial sliding, so it occurs where the bed is melted and is most important when the entire bed is melted. Abrasion of bedrock occurs when rock cutting tools imbedded in the ice at the ice–rock interface are moved across the interface by glacial sliding, so it is also most important when the entire bed is melted. If basal melting continued after the entire bed is melted, abrasion-rates drop because the basal water layer thickens and drowns bedrock projections otherwise subjected to abrasion. Basal freezing reduces both crushing and abrasion-rates by coating quarried rocks with a sheath of relatively soft ice and transporting them upward from the ice–rock interface. An initially flat subglacial topography will develop depressions where glacial erosion is greatest and deposition is least, and ridges where the opposite conditions prevail. We interpret the central depressions represented today by Hudson Bay and the Gulf of Bothnia as caused by erosion on a melting bed under the Laurentide and Scandinavian ice sheets, respectively. The arc of lakes, gulfs, and shallow seas surrounding these depressions are interpreted as resulting from a freezing bed under the former ice sheets. The present watershed separating the depressions from the arcs marks the approximate former basal equilibrium line where the bed was melted. The Canadian and Baltic continental shields beyond these arcs are blanketed by material eroded from within the arcs, and represent areas having a frozen bed where evidence for abrasion is missing and a second zone having a melting bed where evidence for abrasion is present. This basic pattern was assumed to be imprinted on the bed during the steady-state period of maximum ice-sheet extent, and maintained in varying degrees during growth and shrinkage of these ice sheets.

<strong class="journal-contentHeaderColor">Abstract.</strong> North Sea Last Interglacial sea level is sensitive to the fingerprint of mass loss from polar ice sheets. However, the signal is complicated by the influence of glacial isostatic adjustment driven by the Penultimate Glacial Period Eurasian ice sheet and its geometry remain significantly uncertain. Here, we produce new reconstructions of the Eurasian ice sheet during the Penultimate Glacial Maximum (PGM), for use as input to sea-level and climate models, by employing large ensemble experiments from a simple ice-sheet model that depends solely on basal sheer stress, ice extent, and topography. To explore the range of uncertainty in possible ice geometries, we use a parameterised shear-stress map as input that has been developed to incorporate bedrock characteristics and ice-sheet basal processes. We perform Bayesian uncertainty quantification to calibrate against global ice-sheet reconstructions of the last deglaciation to rule out combinations of input parameters that produce unrealistic ice sheets. The refined parameter space is then applied to the PGM to create an ensemble of plausible 3D Eurasian ice-sheet geometries. Our reconstructed PGM Eurasian ice-sheet volume is 51.16&plusmn;6.13 m sea-level equivalent which suggests a 14.3 % reduction in the volume of the PGM Laurentide ice-sheet. We find that the Barents-Kara Sea region displays both the largest mean volume and relative variability of 26.80 &plusmn; 3.58 m SLE while the British-Irish sector&rsquo;s volume of 1.77 &plusmn; 0.11 m SLE is smallest, yet most implausible. Our new workflow may be applied to other locations and periods where ice-sheet histories have limited empirical data.

Estimates of future Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) melt are mostly based on regional climate modelling for a fixed GrIS topography or on ice sheet modelling with forcing from climate models. This prevents the modelling of climate and GrIS feedbacks and other types of interaction. Here we examine a set of multi-century simulations with the Community Earth System Model featuring an interactive GrIS to explore future relationship between global climate change and ice sheet change. To this end, we compare a set of coupled CESM-CISM 1% CO2 increase simulations until stabilization at two, two and a half, three and four times pre-industrial CO2 levels to examine the sensitivity of the GrIS to emission mitigation. Here we find a large role of ocean circulation weakening and associated regional climate changes on GrIS melt for moderate emission scenarios and large melt differences between the three times and four times CO2 stabilization scenarios. In addition, we examine the role of feedbacks on ice sheet evolution by comparing a 1% to 4xCO2 coupled simulation with a simulation where the GrIS topography and meltwater fluxes to the ocean are prescribed as pre-industrial. Finally, we explore the effects on GrIS melt rates of a fast 5% CO2 reduction from four times to pre-industrial levels, with a focus on restoration of high latitude climate, GrIS albedo, surface energy fluxes and refreezing capacity. &amp;#160;

During the last deglaciation large proglacial lakes formed at the base of the retreating northern hemisphere ice sheets. We assess the effect of these ice-contact lakes on regional climate and on the ice sheet surface mass balance components of the adjacent&amp;#160; Laurentide (LIS) and Fennoscandian (FIS) ice sheets,&amp;#160; using an atmosphere general circulation model with a novel extension for proglacial lakes in combination with a surface mass balance scheme for ice sheets, which, for the first time, allows to estimate the effect of the cold surface of these extensive lakes on the surface mass balance of the adjacent ice sheets. In a set of simulations inspired by the&amp;#160; Aller&amp;#248;d interstadial around 13000 years before present, we demonstrate that the presence of proglacial lakes significantly reduces summer air temperatures in a larger area around the proglacial lakes and leads to reduced precipitation with increased snow/rain ratio. In consequence surface ablation reduces by 39% over the FIS and 28% over the LIS while accumulation only changes slightly by 1% and -3%&amp;#160; respectively. About one quarter of the response in surface ablation is related to the perennially cold surface of the proglacial lakes.

&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;Data-driven reconstructions of palaeo-ice sheets based on their landform records are required for validation and improvement of numerical ice sheet models. In turn, such models can be used to better predict the future responses of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets to climate change. We are exploiting the recent expansion in availability and coverage of very-high-resolution (1&amp;amp;#8211;2&amp;amp;#160;m) digital elevation models (DEMs) within the domain of the former Fennoscandian Ice Sheet to reconstruct its flow pattern evolution from the glacial landform record.&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;The Fennoscandian Ice Sheet reached its maximum extent at 21&amp;amp;#8211;20&amp;amp;#160;ka. Previous data-driven reconstructions over the whole ice sheet domain (encompassing Fennoscandia, northern continental Europe and western Russia) have necessarily relied upon landform mapping from relatively coarse-resolution (decametre-scale) data, predominantly from satellite images and aerial photographs. However, high-resolution (1&amp;amp;#8211;2&amp;amp;#160;m/pixel resolution) LiDAR DEMs have recently become available over a large portion of the ice sheet domain above contemporary sea level. This reveals previously unobserved assemblages of landforms which record past ice sheet flow, including fine-scale cross-cutting and superposition relationships between landforms. These observations are likely to reveal previously unidentified complexity in the flow evolution of the ice sheet. However, the richness of the data available over such a large area amplifies labour-intensity challenges of data-driven whole-ice-sheet reconstructions; it is not possible to map every flow-related landform (or even a majority of the landforms) manually in a timely manner. We therefore present a new multi-scale sampling approach for systematic and comprehensive ice-sheet-scale mapping, which aims to overcome the data-richness challenge while maintaining rigor and providing informative data products for model-data comparisons.&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;We present in-progress mapping products covering Finland, Norway and Sweden produced using our new multi-scale sampling approach. The products include mapping of &amp;gt;200 000 subglacial bedforms and bedform fields, and a summary map of &amp;amp;#8216;landform linkages&amp;amp;#8217;. Landform linkages summarise the detailed landform mapping but do not extrapolate over large distances between observed landforms. Thus, they provide a reduced data product that is useful for regional-scale flow reconstruction and model-data comparisons and remains closely tied to landform observations. The landform linkages will be reduced further into longer interpretative flowlines, which we will then use to generate &amp;amp;#8216;flowsets&amp;amp;#8217; describing discrete ice flow patterns within the ice sheet. We will use cross-cutting relationships observed in the detailed landform mapping to ascribe a relative chronology to overlapping flowsets where relevant. We will then combine the flowsets into a new reconstruction of the flow pattern evolution of the ice sheet.&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;

Termination (T) 5, ∼424 ka, involved the biggest deglaciation of land-ice mass during the Quaternary. Warming and ice-sheet retreat during T5 led to an exceptionally long period of interglacial warmth known as Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11, ∼424–395 ka. A detailed understanding of the history of continental ice-sheet decay during T5 is required to disentangle regional contributions of ice-sheet retreat to sea-level rise (that range between ∼1 and 13 m above present day) and to correct it for glacio-isostatic adjustments (GIA). Yet little is known about the timing and magnitude of retreat during this time of the volumetrically most important continental ice sheet in the Northern Hemisphere, the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS). Here we present new authigenic Fe-Mn oxyhydroxide-derived high-resolution records of Pb isotope data and associated rare earth element profiles for samples spanning T5 from Labrador Sea IODP Site U1302/3. These records feature astronomically-paced radiogenic Pb isotope excursions that track increases in chemical weathering of North American bedrock and freshwater routing to the Labrador Sea via Hudson Straits associated with LIS retreat. Our records show that LIS retreat during T5 began 429. 2 ± 7.9 ka (2σ) and likely occurred over a longer timescale (by ∼10 to 5 kyr) than that observed for T2 and T1. They also show that Hudson Bay Ice Saddle collapse (and therefore LIS break-up) occurred ∼419 ± 4.7 ka (2σ), around the same time as best estimates of southern Greenland deglaciation, but ∼12 kyr before LIS deglaciation and the sea-level high-stand associated with the latter half of MIS 11 likely occurred. Our findings therefore highlight that ice-mass loss on North America likely played an important role in the seemingly protracted nature of T5 sea-level rise. A comparison of the deglaciation histories of the LIS and the southern Greenland Ice Sheet during T5, T2 and T1 also demonstrates that the well-constrained history of regional ice-sheet retreat during T1 is not always applicable as a template for older late Pleistocene terminations in GIA modelling.

PROXY temperature records from Greenland ice cores1,2 and North Atlantic sediment cores3 have provided evidence for a high degree of climate instability during the last glacial period. Much of this variability seems to be linked with the dynamics of the Laurentide ice sheet that covered North America at this time3, which dis-charged iceberg flotillas into the North Atlantic that are now recorded in sediment cores as Heinrich events4. How (if at all) this variability was manifested on the other side of the Atlantic— in the Nordic seas and the ice sheets of northwest Europe and Scandinavia—has been unclear. Here we present sediment, micro-fossil and oxygen isotope data from a sediment core in the Norweg-ian sea, which reveal cooling events and iceberg discharges analogous to Heinrich events. We show that these climate fluctua-tions in the Norwegian Sea were in phase, or were phase-locked, with air temperatures over Greenland, suggesting that the rapid changes in heat fluxes in the North Atlantic recorded in previous records3 were felt in this high-latitude region. The iceberg dis-charges in our record seem to have come from the Fennoscandian ice sheet, implying that this and the Laurentide ice sheets fluctu-ated coherently on timescales shorter than those of Milankovitch orbital cycles.

Abstract. Heinrich events are among the dominant modes of glacial climate variability. During these events, massive iceberg armadas were released by the Laurentide Ice Sheet and sailed across the Atlantic where they melted and released freshwater, as well as detritus, that formed characteristic layers on the seafloor. Heinrich events are known for cold climates in the North Atlantic region and global climate changes. We study these events in a fully coupled complex ice sheet–climate model with synchronous coupling between ice sheets and oceans. The ice discharges occur as an internal variability of the model with a recurrence period of 5 kyr, an event duration of 1–1.5 kyr, and a peak discharge rate of about 50 mSv, roughly consistent with reconstructions. The climate response shows a two-stage behavior, with freshwater release effects dominating the surge phase and ice sheet elevation effects dominating the post-surge phase. As a direct response to the freshwater discharge during the surge phase, deepwater formation in the North Atlantic decreases and the North Atlantic deepwater cell weakens by 3.5 Sv. With the reduced oceanic heat transport, the surface temperatures across the North Atlantic decrease, and the associated reduction in evaporation causes a drying in Europe. The ice discharge lowers the surface elevation in the Hudson Bay area and thus leads to increased precipitation and accelerated ice sheet regrowth in the post-surge phase. Furthermore, the jet stream widens to the north, which contributes to a weakening of the subpolar gyre and a continued cooling over Europe even after the ice discharge. This two-stage behavior can explain previously contradicting model results and understandings of Heinrich events.