The Local Impact of Containerization

SummaryThe probability distribution of the operational law of container liner ships in port is the significant theoretical basis for the study of container liners and ports, but there has been a lack of corresponding statistical analysis and theoretical research on that distribution since maritime container transportation came into being. The main purpose of this paper is to identify probabilistic models of the operational law of container liners by statistically analysing the operation data collected from Dalian, Kaohsiung and Rotterdam ports. The results demonstrate that both the interarrival time and the handling time of container liner ships follow higher order Erlang distributions. Under the combined influence of schedule constraints and the interference of some uncertain factors, container liners run between randomness and certainty, presenting the same feature as higher order Erlang distributions. In addition, the world container trade in container ports is subject to similar operational rules and time limits, so it is reasonable to deduce that the above conclusion could be generalized to other container ports. Finally, this paper quantitatively evaluates the degree of port congestion under various probabilistic models, which shows that the study not only has theoretical significance but also values in application.

Regional trade co-operation, economic growth and greater political stability have enabled increased container throughput and container port capacity development. Earlier academic work has indicated that the functional position of this port region in the global maritime network might be shifting from a remote region in the periphery of the network to a more intermediate position. This paper aims to analyze the changing level of peripherality and remoteness of the Southern African container port system as part of the global container shipping network. The central hypothesis is that Southern Africa has moved from a remote shipping region to a more central shipping region in the global network. The methodology consists of the calculation of network measures for Southern African ports. The changing geographical distribution of flows among the main container ports in South Africa, Namibia, Mozambique, Mauritius and Madagascar will also be explored in terms of their respective shipping services, port calling patterns, market structure (in terms of the number of active carriers) and the up-scaling of vessel and port capacity. The overall result is a mapped port hierarchical structure with a clear indication of the shifted maritime centrality of Southern African ports from 1996 to the present decade.

Nonlinearities in a container port handling chain include mainly nonnegative arrive rate of container cargoes, limited container handling completion rate, and nonnegative unsatisfied freight requirement constraints. The nonlinearity influences the operation resources availability and consequently the planned container port handling strategies. Developments presented in this work are devoted to a novel design of sliding mode control with low-pass filter (SMC-LPF) to nonlinear handling chain system (HCS) in container ports. The SMC-LPF can effectively reduce unsatisfied freight requirement of the HCS and make chattering decrease significantly. To illustrate the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed SMC-LPF, an application to a real container port in China is outlined. The performances of the SMC-LPF for the nonlinear HCS in container ports outperform those of the traditional method, particle swarm optimization algorithm, and slide mode control under simulations with a unit step signal and a sinusoidal signal with offset as the freight requirements. The contributions herein demonstrate the proposed control strategy in weakening chattering, reducing the unsatisfied freight requirements to 0 as close as possible in the HCS, maximizing the operation resilience and robustness of port and shipping supply chain against parametric perturbation, external disturbances, and fluctuant handling abilities.

In recent years global container shipping saw few major disrupting events that are likely to challenge container shipping business model. First, COVID-19 epidemic caused a major disruption to the global container shipping industry that became challenged by timely delivery of critical life-saving supplies. As a result of Covid-19, container trade volumes and container port volumes have declined over the first months of 2020 with container ship idling rate reaching 15%. Second, the blockage of the Evergreen mega conmanship vessel at the Suez Canal disrupted the global supply chain. Collectively, these events create a basis for questioning the efficiency of a business model relying only on major shipping corridors and using predominately mega containerships. The purpose of this research is to study container shipping along the Northern Sea Route (NSR), which is positioned as one of the emerging global shipping corridors. The Russian Federation is investing in NSR development and planning to launch a subsidized regular container shipment from the Far East to Murmansk or Saint Petersburg along the NSR on a testing base already this year, 2022. This study aiming at investigating the feasibility of container shipping on the NSR using a business model approach, we map existing and future capabilities of container shipping and public acceptance of such shipping by major players. The authors examine changing institutional environment and conduct a survey of major industry players, academia, administrators, and NGOs. The results of the study contribute to the literature on the NSR feasibility and provide practically relevant information to container shipping industry stakeholders.

Two aspects of New Economic Geography models are often singled out for criticism, especially by geographers: the treatment of geography, typically as a pre-given, fixed and highly idealized abstract geometric space; and the treatment of history, typically as ‘logical’ time (the movement to equilibrium in a model's solution space) rather than real history. In this paper we examine the basis for these criticisms, and explore how far and in what ways NEG models might be made more credible with respect to their representation of geography and history, and particularly whether and to what extent the work of geographers themselves provides some insights in this regard. We argue that the conceptualization of space and time is in fact a challenge for both NEG theorists and economic geographers, and that, notwithstanding their ontological and epistemological differences, both groups would benefit from an interchange of ideas on this front. Réinventer les (nouveaux) modèles de géographie économique: comment prendre la géographie et l'histoire plus au sérieux Rèsumè Deux aspects particuliers des modèles de la nouvelle géographie économique sont souvent l'objet de critiques, notamment de la part des géographes, à savoir: le traitement de la géographie, généralement comme un espace géométrique abstrait prédéterminé, fixe et extrêmement idéalisé, et le traitement de l'histoire, généralement comme un créneau ‘logique’ (un mouvement vers l’équilibre dans un espace à solution du modèle) et non pas comme l'histoire réelle. Dans la présente communication, nous nous penchons sur le fondement de ces critiques, et nous examinons dans quelle mesure les modèles de la NEG pourraient devenir plus plausibles sur le plan de la façon dont ils représentent la géographie et l'histoire, notamment si le travail des géographes apporte de nouveaux éléments sur cette question, et dans quelle mesure. Nous soutenons que la conceptualisation de l'espace et du temps constitue, en fait, un défi tant pour les théoriciens de la NEG que pour les géographes économiques, et qu'au-delà de leurs différences ontologiques et épistémologiques, un échange d'idées sur ce sujet serait bénéfique pour ces deux groupes. Reconsideración de modelos de (Nueva) Geografía Económica: Tomando más en serio la geografía y la historia Extracto A menudo, existen dos aspectos particulares de los modelos de Nueva Geografía Económica que reciben críticas, especialmente por parte de los geógrafos: el tratamiento de la geografía, típicamente como un espacio geométrico abstracto altamente idealizado, fijo y predeterminado; y, el tratamiento de la historia, típicamente como un tiempo ‘lógico’ (el movimiento hacia el equilibrio en el espacio de solución de un modelo), en lugar de como historia real. En este estudio examinamos la base de estas críticas y exploramos hasta qué punto y de qué formas, los modelos NEG podrían hacerse más creíbles con respecto a su representación de la geografía e historia, y particularmente, si, y hasta qué punto el trabajo de los geógrafos mismos proporciona algún tipo de visión interna en esta cuestión. Discutimos que la conceptualización del espacio y el tiempo es, de hecho, un reto para los teóricos NEG y los geógrafos económicos, y que, independientemente de sus diferencias ontológicas y epistemológicas, ambos grupos se beneficiarían de un intercambio de ideas en este campo.

This study proposes high-frequency container port congestion measures based on Automatic Identification System (AIS) data. Vessel movement information of 3,957 container ships from March 2017 to April 2017 is included. The world top 20 container ports’ berth and anchorage areas are identified through Density Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (DBSCAN) and convex hull methods, and their hourly port congestion statuses are depicted in terms of the traffic volume and turnaround time. The constructed congestion measures overcome the disadvantages of the traditionally used port or industry data, which is heterogenous, behind the time and not easy to obtain publicly. The higher frequency (hourly) of the proposed measures can effectively monitor any slight change in port performance. A Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network model is then proposed for congestion prediction using constructed congestion measures. Point prediction and sequence prediction are both performed. We innovatively introduce congestion propagation effects into the prediction model as input features. Using Shanghai, Singapore and Ningbo ports as case studies, results show that the inclusion of congestion propagation effect can improve the prediction performance especially for sequence prediction. This study provides significant implications and decision support for container shipping market participants.

Similar to world trade, container transportation and the tendency to transport various cargoes with containers is increasing in Turkey. Moreover, in a world where production centers will be relocated during Covid-19, it can be said that Turkey's production will increase and over and above expectations, container traffic in its ports will expand. We can foresee that Kocaeli City's container ports and logistic focuses will require more container transportation, due to the fact that where containerization is increasing in Turkey and around the world. In our study, transportation possibilities between container ports and logistics centers of Kocaeli city have been examined. The adequacy of the existing transportation opportunities, the needs of the sector in this context, and the perspectives of the stakeholder company managers on an alternative transportation method were examined through a semi-structured interview form. The data collected in the research were analyzed using the Kruskal Wallis H test in the IBM SPSS 22.0 program, and the hypotheses were questioned. Reconsidering alternative opportunities in transportation for the development of Kocaeli ports and logistics stakeholders in a competitive structure, increasing the road and railway transportation capacities between the ports and Köseköy Logistics center will be appropriate, a new/alternative transportation method will have a positive impact on the efficiency of the port/logistics business, inland waterway/canal to the logistics center. It has been concluded that integration with transportation may be beneficial in the future and may have a moderate impact on business volume and productivity.

This article explores how major macroeconomic variables, such as GDP, industrial production, bilateral trade, and financial openness, and shipping variables, such as fleet development and transportation costs, affect container ports. The authors set their discussion after the economic recession of 2009, describing how the container shipping sector is integrally involved with the global economy. They start by explaining the theory of business cycle synchronicity, including the macroeconomic co-movements of the contemporary globalized economic environment. The authors then conduct a panel data analysis and use dynamic Generalized Methods of Moments (GMM) techniques to support their analysis. The study covers 1995-2010 and includes 36 ports from 25 countries. The authors found that industrial production is a very powerful variable for the interpretation of container ports throughput convergence in all the tested cases. GDP convergence exercises a positive effect on ports synchronization. The authors recommend using both variables in order to generate better results. They conclude by reminding readers to also keep in mind shipping-specific variables in any study of container ports convergence.

The evolution of the single-hub container system in Southeast Asia into a multi-hub system, with several emerging container ports serving deep-sea container vessels and forming their feeder service network, may result in intense competition in the region and a transformation in the ports’ roles. Thus, major ports in the region have sought to enhance their competitiveness by offering improved cargo handling capabilities, well-developed infrastructure, and modernised facilities as well as increased service coverage and connectivity to more countries both directly and indirectly. Several major container ports in the area have taken full advantage of competitiveness to become new hub-ports in the area. To understand the dynamics of competition in this rapidly developing region more clearly, this paper presents an evaluation of connectivity of major ports. In addition, the competitiveness of the top ten Southeast Asian container ports is evaluated using the TOPSIS method and K-mean cluster analysis. The results indicate that the top ten ports are categorised into three groups, and while Singapore (Group 1) takes the most advantage of its connectivity, ports in Groups 2 and 3 may be able to enhance competitiveness by developing cargo handling facilities and infrastructure.

Rapid development of maritime container transport within the last two decades encouraged port authorities to focus on a more precise traffic forecast in order to cope with software and hardware requirements just in time. It has been the case for Iranian Ports and Maritime Organization (PMO) to map marine traffic until 2025. This has been performed in this paper based on three distinct scenarios, namely, “simplified continuous growth,” “port best experience replication,” and “regional best practice” for four main container ports of the country based on seventeen years recorded trade data. Such results should be used as input to assess smoothness of port functions in future. Besides, Liner Shipping Connectivity Index (LSCI) has been discussed to draw Iran’s probable participation in the global container trade and shipping services within the next ten years.

New Economic Geography models describe a cumulative process of spatial agglomeration: Firms tend to cluster in locations with good access to demand, and similarly, workers are drawn to regions where market potential is high because the price index is lower there. This paper provides an empirical assessment of this forward linkage that relates labour migrations to the geography of production through real wage differentials. In the spirit of Hanson (1998), we use bilateral migration data for five European countries over the 1980s and 1990s to perform quasi-structural estimations of a new economic geography model derived from Krugman (1991). The results show strong evidence in favor of this model. As expected, migrants do follow market potential. Moreover, we provide estimates for all key parameters of the model. These estimates suggest that a sudden emergence of a core-periphery pattern is unlikely within European countries: centripetal forces are too limited in geographical scope, and mobility costs are too high.

Typical bifurcation scenario in a three region identical New Economic Geography model

Dynamic agglomeration patterns in a two-country new economic geography model with four regions

To quantitatively analyse the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on China’s container ports, the berthing ships are mainly investigated by the big data of Automatic Identification System (AIS). First, the methods of AIS data acquisition, cleaning and statistical analysis are introduced. Then the sample ports of Shanghai, Ningbo-Zhoushan and Tianjin are selected, and the monthly ratios of key indicators such as the number of berthing ships and berthing time are calculated by AIS analysis system. Finally, the numerical results show that although the COVID-19 epidemic does not significantly affect the number of container ships arriving at China’s ports, it has a significant impact on the average berthing time of container ships.

The X-Press Pearl disaster has the unfortunate hallmarks of other global container ship disasters that are becoming increasingly common and will continue to cause future environmental damage. Port container throughput is ~830 million twenty-foot equivalents (TEUs), projected to grow for the next four decades at minimum, and industry experts predict that ship sizes will continue to grow to 50,000 TEU. Misdeclared content, poor packing, inadequate stowage/lashing, ship-board fires, climate-change-driven intensity of storms, and increasing ship size all ensure increasing environmental damage from container ship maritime disasters. Industry consensus is that the number of containers lost at sea is conspicuously undercounted, and the impact of lost containers is unstudied. This paper reviews specific aspects of the container ship industry that contribute to environmental damage, and then addresses needs for risk, impact assessment and environmental management as pertains to industry operations and container ship disasters such as the X-Press Pearl.