The Otari debris flow disaster occurred in December 1996

We analyzed multi-time satellite images of the Central Caucasus glacial zone and interpreted more than thirty rock avalanche events in the 21st century with a total damage area of more than 25 km2 (including the collapse zone of the Kolka Glacier disaster). The highest rock and rock-ice avalanche activity is detected in the section of The Greater Caucasus range (northern and southern slopes) with a length of about 20 km between the Bashkara and Kulaktau peaks (16 rock avalanches) and in the section of the Kazbek-Dzhimaray Massif (series of rock avalanches to the surface of Kolka, Suatisi and Devdoraki glaciers). The feature of the rock and ice-rock avalanches is the large runout distance. For 12 events (about 40%) the distance was more than 2000 m. One ice-rock avalanche from the Mount Kazbek (excluding the Kolka Glacier disaster in 2002) reached the runout distance more than 10 km. In some areas, the rock avalanches occurred several times. In particular, a large number of avalanches were in the cirque of the Kolka Glacier; the last of them at the end of 2019. Thrice шт each case, rock avalanches originated from Mount Bashkara, in the cirques of the Murkvam Glacier, the East Shtulu Glacier, and the Devdoraki Glacier. Ice and rock avalanches were the initial stage of the complex process of the Kolka Glacier disaster and following catastrophic glacial debris flow in the Genaldon/Gizeldon River valley in 2002. Also, they were causes of glacier surges, formation of dammed lakes, and debris flows. As a result of the collapse of the hanging glacier and bedrock, the former right tributary of the Kolka Glacier surged to 200 m in 2006. Ice-rock avalanche from Mount Kazbek in 2014 load up the former right tributary of the Devdoraki Glacier and caused its advancing in 2015–2019, at a distance of more than 400 m. The avalanches caused catastrophic debris flows in the Amilishka/Kabakhi River valley in 2014, the Mestiachala River valley in 2019. Rock avalanches can cause outbursts of lakes and debris flows. Two dammed lakes formed as a result of the rock avalanche from the cirque above the Seri Glacier in the Tviberi River valley of the in May 2016. The lakes (total area was more than 0.05 km2) have outburst at the end of August 2017 after heavy rains. Rock avalanches of the 20th century led to an abrupt deceleration in the retreat of the Yusengi, Bartuytsete, East Shtulu and Mosota glaciers. The formation of rock avalanches in the 21st century took place at high altitudes (an average of about 3900 m). Possibly, the reason was associated with an increase of the «0» isotherm and of the high border of the zone of intense frost weathering due to climate warming. Some rock avalanches in the section of the Kazbek-Dzhimarai Massif have been caused by endogenous factors (seismicity and volcanism).

A physically-based multi-hazard risk assessment platform for regional rainfall-induced slope failures and debris flows

Dynamic movement history of the Iiyama slope failure revealed from seismic data

Erosion is concentrated in steep landscapes such that, despite accounting for only a small fraction of Earth’s total surface area, these areas regulate the flux of sediment to downstream basins, and their rugged morphology records transient changes (or lack thereof) in geologic and climatic forcing. Steep landscapes are geomorphically active; large sediment fluxes and rapid landscape evolution rates can create or destroy habitat for humans and wildlife alike, and landslides, debris flows, and floods common in mountainous areas represent a persistent natural and structural hazard. Despite the central role that steep landscapes play in the geosciences and in landscape management, the processes controlling their evolution have been poorly studied compared to lower-gradient areas. This thesis focuses on the basic mechanics of sediment transport and bedrock incision in steep landscapes, as these are the fundamental processes which set the pace and style of landscape evolution. Chapter 1 examines the spatial distribution of slow-moving landslides; these landslides can dominate sediment fluxes to river networks, but the controls on their occurrence are poorly understood. Using a case-study along the San Andreas Fault, California, I show that slow-moving landslides preferentially occur near the fault, suggesting a rock-strength control on landslide distribution. Chapter 2 provides the first field-measurements of incipient sediment motion in streams steeper than 14% and shows a large influence of slope-dependent flow hydraulics and grain-scale roughness on particle motion. Chapter 3 presents experimental evidence for bedrock erosion by suspended sediment, suggesting that, in contrast to prevailing theoretical predictions, suspension-regime transport in steep streams can be the dominant erosion agent. Steep streams are often characterized by the presence of waterfalls and bedrock steps which can have locally high rates of erosion; Chapters 4 and 5 present newly developed, experimentally validated theory on sediment transport through and bedrock erosion in waterfall plunge pools. Finally, Chapter 6 explores the formation of a bedrock slot canyon where interactions between sediment transport and bedrock incision lead to the formation of upstream-propagating bedrock step-pools and waterfalls.

As a natural hazard in mountainous terrain, debris flows cause considerable disruptions, human casualties and economic damage in many regions world-wide. However, the spatially localized nature of debris flows together with the lack of data at sufficient temporal and spatial resolutions make the triggering processes difficult to describe. As a result, debris flows are problematic to predict. Effective regional and local early warning systems, built on both process-based or statistical models, have therefore so far remained elusive. Even more, common statistical models, such as  precipitation-intensity threshold models, rely on precipitation. As debris flows are essentially in-channel processes, precipitation is an indirect predictor and proxy for in-channel processes. As such it is not surprising that precipitation has limited predictive power. In spite of recent progress, general and detailed descriptions of in-channel processes that control debris flow triggering only start to emerge. Most generally, sediment supply and channel flow magnitudes can be considered major direct controls on debris flow occurence. As both are difficult to observe, they have so far not been systematically exploited and quantitatively described for their role as debris flow triggers.  Based on 20-year records of hydro-climatic data, several dozens of well documented debris flow events in three contrasting head-water catchments in the Central Alps and a semi-distributed, process-based hydrological model, the objectives of our analysis are to (1) quantify the critical channel runoff magnitudes that have triggered past debris flows and to establish whether characteristic magnitudes can be found as a function of topography, soils, geology and other factors, (2) identify the relevance of snow melt vs. rainfall for the generation of debris flow triggering critical channel runoff, and (3) to test whether modelled critical channel runoff has higher power to predict debris flows than standard precipitation-intensity models.Overall, we have found that indeed, relatively well-defined minimum critical channel flows as lower limits above which debris flows occur feature each of the three study catchments. It was also found that the general magnitudes are highly site specific. In spite of that, no obvious relation between the average critical flow magnitudes and landscape characteristics, such as local terrain or channel slopes, vegetation cover, soil type or geology at the three sites could be identified. In general, it was found that flow peaks, generated by short-duration, high-intensity rainfall events, mostly during summer, dominated the debris flow trigger dynamics at the study sites. In addition, several instances when debris flows were triggered by flow peaks of similar magnitudes but generated by high-intensity snow melt in combination with rain-on-snow were observed, highlighting the importance of quantifying liquid water input dynamics instead of bulk precipitation as system input that causally leads to the occurrence of debris flows. Intrinsically accounting not only for this distinction but also additional effects by evaporation, modelled channel flow magnitudes were found to be better predictors of debris flows, with respect to both, higher rates of true positives (correctly predicted debris flows) and lower rates of false positives (predicted but not occurred in reality), than traditional precipitation thresholds. 

Modeling snowmelt influence on shallow landslides in Tartano valley, Italian Alps

The Sea to Sky Corridor has experienced hundreds of historic and prehistoric landslides. The most common types of historical landslides are rock falls and debris flows, which are relatively small in volume but can be damaging. These types of failures are more common in the southern part of the corridor, between Horseshoe Bay and Porteau, where infrastructure has been built in close proximity to steep slopes. Farther north, fewer landslides have been reported historically, but those that have been recorded are usually large and date to prehistoric time (e.g., Cheekye fan and Mystery Creek rock avalanche). As part of a Geological Survey of Canada surficial geology and landslide inventory mapping study, Mystery Creek rock avalanche, near Whistler, British Columbia, was sampled for 36Cl dating. Samples were collected from three large flat boulders of quartz diorite in the rock avalanche deposit to test a correlation with the previously reported radiocarbon age of 800 ± 100 years BP on charcoal. One sample revealed a mean age of 2,400 years and the other two, 4,300 and 4,800 years, respectively. These new results point to four possible interpretations: (1) Mystery Creek landslide is about 800 years old; (2) Based on the overlapping 2σ uncertainties, the rock avalanche took place between 2,200 and 3,600 years ago; (3) The rock avalanche deposit is 2,400 years old and the other two blocks are too old; and (4) The rock avalanche is between 4,300 and 4,800 years old. Although there is strength in numbers and it is likely that the age varies between 4,300 and 4,800 years, we favor the second interpretation where the age range is broader and statistically significant for all three samples. Moreover, at this time, we favor discounting the radiocarbon age based on a greater number of samples analyzed for 36Cl analysis and lack of detailed information on the charcoal sampling. The causes and triggers of the Mystery Creek rock avalanche remain unknown, but direct glacial debuttressing can be ruled out. Some of the causes are likely a combination of the regional tectonic setting which produced preferential planes of weakness reflected in the trend of major faults, headscarp, and reverse scarps. Yearly cycles of freezing and thawing are considered a plausible cause based on present-day climate records. Finally, a large earthquake still remains a possible trigger because of the active tectonic setting and the presence of potentially contemporaneous landslides in the same area. Mystery Creek rock avalanche and other historic and pre-historic landslides contributed to validation of a heuristic rock fall/rock slide/rock avalanche susceptibility mapping study, in which their headscarps correlated well with medium-high to high susceptibility zones. In terms of hazard assessment, Mystery Creek rock avalanche, although pre-historic in age, occurred in present-day climatic and geological conditions. This poses a threat to infrastructure such as the Sea to Sky Highway, railway, and power line.

We model the rainfall-induced initiation of shallow landslides over a broad region using a deterministic approach, the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Slope-stability (TRIGRS) model that couples an infinite-slope stability analysis with a one-dimensional analytical solution for transient pore pressure response to rainfall infiltration. This model permits the evaluation of regional shallow landslide susceptibility in a Geographic Information System framework, and we use it to analyze susceptibility to shallow landslides in an area in the eastern Umbria Region of central Italy. As shown on a landslide inventory map produced by the Italian National Research Council, the area has been affected in the past by shallow landslides, many of which have transformed into debris flows. Input data for the TRIGRS model include time-varying rainfall, topographic slope, colluvial thickness, initial water table depth, and material strength and hydraulic properties. Because of a paucity of input data, we focus on parametric analyses to calibrate and test the model and show the effect of variation in material properties and initial water table conditions on the distribution of simulated instability in the study area in response to realistic rainfall. Comparing the results with the shallow landslide inventory map, we find more than 80% agreement between predicted shallow landslide susceptibility and the inventory, despite the paucity of input data.

On 27 December 2011, a rock avalanche in the upper Val Bondasca in the southern Swiss Alps deposited 1.5–1.7 million m3 of rock debris. The following summer, debris flow activity in Val Bondasca was unusually high with four events after a 90‐year period of debris flow inactivity. This was an exceptional situation for the valley. Analysing the 2012 events, the long‐term record of meteorological conditions such as rainfall intensity and duration, in comparison with debris flow activity, suggests that the meteorological conditions in summer 2012 would not have triggered the high intensity debris flow events without additional sediment input. Consequently, the suddenly increased debris availability can be considered a major factor in these events. Interestingly, rainfall events of similar magnitude in the subsequent years 2013–2015 did not trigger additional debris flow events, indicating that debris flow initiation thresholds are increasing again, back towards pre‐rock avalanche levels. This study aims to help in understanding the so far poorly understood temporal evolution of debris flow triggering thresholds and the effect of sudden changes in sediment availability.

Migration of channel heads by storm events in two granitic mountain basins, western Japan: Implication for predicting location of landslides

Trees in forests can obstruct falling rocks and serve as a natural barrier to reduce the velocity of falling rocks. Recently, there has been growing interest in utilizing forests to safeguard against potential rockfall. Nevertheless, there is a dearth of research regarding the impact of rock size and forest structure on forest preservation against rockfall. This study takes the Jiweishan rock avalanche that occurred in China in June 2009 as an example to discuss the protection mechanism of forests against rockfall in rock avalanche disasters. Three sizes of rockfalls from the Jiweishan rock avalanche were simulated and analyzed with and without forests using Rockyfor3D software. The findings indicate that forests can mitigate the energy impact of falling rocks. Especially in the debris flow area of rock avalanches, the protective effect of trees on small-sized falling rocks is most obvious, reducing the runout distance and damage range of the debris flow. Moreover, the protective effect of forest structures on rockfall risk was explored. It was found that broad-leaved forests had the best protection against falling rocks, followed by coniferous broad-leaved mixed forests, and coniferous forests had the worst protective effect. Furthermore, increasing forest planting density and tree diameter at breast height (DBH) can result in better protection against rockfall. Thus, rational planning of forest species and planting density in areas of rockfall can effectively reduce the threat of rockfall risk. The research ideas in this study can provide a basis for evaluating the mitigation of rockfall hazards by forests and provide a reference for constructing and planning protective forests in rockfall and rock avalanche hazard areas.

<p>Debris flow is one of the most hazardous events that occur in all mountain regions.  Direct debris flow damage includes loss of human life, destruction of houses and facilities, damage to roads, rail lines and pipelines, vehicle accidents, and many other losses that are difficult to quantify. In July 2015, in the valley of the Barsemdara River (Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region, Tajikistan), plenty of debris flows were observed. As a result, residential areas, social facilities, and infrastructure in Barsem village and neighboring settlements were destroyed and flooded. Besides, debris flow deposits blocked the Gunt River with the subsequent formation of a dammed lake with a maximum volume of 4.0 million m<sup>3</sup>. <br>The aim of this study was to obtain hydrographs of debris flow waves in the source and detailed zoning of the Barsemdara river valley. For the debris flow source, we applied transport-shift model. Equations of this model were developed by Yu.B. Vinogradov basing on Chemolgan experiments of artificial debris flows descending. Previously, the model characteristics were compared with the observational data of the Chemolgan experiments, and the results were found to be satisfactory [Vinogradova, Vinogradov, 2017]. Based on the equations, a computer program was created in the programming language Python. Besides, we improved the model by adding flow velocity calculations, and eventually it became possible to obtain hydrographs. To investigate quantitative characteristics of the debris flow in the river valley we implied a two-dimensional (2D) model called FLO-2D PRO. It is based on the numerical methods for solving the system of Saint-Venant equations. Besides, in this model, it is assumed that debris flows move like a Bingham fluid (viscoplastic fluid) [O'Brien et al., 1993]. The input information for modeling was digital elevation model (DEM) and previously obtained hydrographs. The output information included flow depth, velocity distribution and hazard level of the territory. The results of the study will be reported.</p><p>1.    Vinogradova T.A., Vinogradov A.Y. The Experimental Debris Flows in the Chemolgan River Basin // Natural Hazards. – 2017. – V. 88. – P. 189-198.<br>2.    O'Brien J. S., Julien P.Y., Fullerton W.T. Two-dimensional water flood and mudflow simulation //Journal of hydraulic engineering. – 1993. – V. 119, No 2. – P. 244-261.</p>

Abstract. Many shallow landslides and debris flows are precipitation initiated. Therefore, regional landslide hazard assessment is often based on empirically derived precipitation intensity-duration (ID) thresholds and landslide inventories. Generally, two features of precipitation events are plotted and labeled with (shallow) landslide occurrence or non-occurrence. Hereafter, a separation line or zone is drawn, mostly in logarithmic space. The practical background of ID is that often only meteorological information is available when analyzing (non-)occurrence of shallow landslides and, at the same time, it could be that precipitation information is a good proxy for both meteorological trigger and hydrological cause. Although applied in many case studies, this approach suffers from many false positives as well as limited physical process understanding. Some first steps towards a more hydrologically based approach have been proposed in the past, but these efforts received limited follow-up. Therefore, the objective of our paper is to (a) critically analyze the concept of precipitation ID thresholds for shallow landslides and debris flows from a hydro-meteorological point of view and (b) propose a trigger–cause conceptual framework for lumped regional hydro-meteorological hazard assessment based on published examples and associated discussion. We discuss the ID thresholds in relation to return periods of precipitation, soil physics, and slope and catchment water balance. With this paper, we aim to contribute to the development of a stronger conceptual model for regional landslide hazard assessment based on physical process understanding and empirical data.

<p>Over the last decades climate has warmed up worldwide and changes have occurred in the general weather patterns. Where the increase in temperature has rapidly been gathering pace in the last decade. These changes have also been observed in Iceland. From 1980 to 2015 the average temperature increase has been 0,47°C per decade and the average precipitation has increased from 1500 mm/year to around 1600-1700 mm/year. The increased temperature changes have also resulted in more frequent thawing periods and rainfall events during winter months, especially in the lowlands.</p><p>Mass movements, including rock falls, rock avalanches, debris flows and debris slides, are common geomorphological processes in Iceland and thus present a significant and direct threat to many towns, villages, and farmhouses. Weather conditions, e.g. precipitation and temperature variations, and earthquake activity are the most common triggering factors for such activity in Iceland. During the last decades several, somewhat unusual, mass movements events have occurred in the island. These events have been unusual both regarding their size, increased frequency, their triggering factors and not at least the timing within the year they have occurred.</p><p>One of the most visible consequence of temperature rise in Iceland is the fast retreat and thinning of outlet glaciers and formation of proglacial lakes. The frequency of mass movements on outlet glaciers have increased considerably from the turn of the century compared to the last 4 decades of the 20<sup>th</sup> century. New discoveries of unstable slopes above outlet glaciers have also increased considerably from 2000.</p><p>In recent years, there has been an increasing interest worldwide in the influence of climate warming and possible decline of mountain permafrost on the occurrence of mass wasting phenomena. The rising frequency of rapid mass movements, such as debris flows, debris slides, rock falls and rock avalanches, in mountainous areas have been linked with mountain permafrost degradation. Several mass movements, which can be connected to thawing of mountain permafrost, have occurred in central N and NW parts of the island during the last decade.</p><p>Majority of landslides in Iceland in the past century have either occurred in relations with low-pressures systems that pass-through Iceland from August to November, bringing in high winds with heavy rainfall, or during spring snowmelt in May and June. But in the past two decades snowmelt and thawing periods are becoming more frequent and longer during wintertime resulting in higher frequency of slope failures during that time of year. Over the past 20 years’ large landslides events (> 300.000 m<sup>3</sup>) have become more frequent compared to the second half of the 20<sup>th</sup> century. </p><p>Climate change certainly seems to be affecting slope stability in Iceland and is an increasing risk. Especially slopes close to retreating glaciers and those affected by thawing of mountain permafrost. Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns in late fall and during winter months are causing slope failures that were not as common in the past. </p>

BackgroundUncertainties exist in the magnitude and outbreak of debris flow disasters, resulting in significant loss of lives and property to human society. Improved identification of debris flow susceptibility areas can help to predict the location and sphere of influence of debris flow disaster, thus accurately assessing the risk of debris flow disaster and reducing losses caused by such a disaster. The dry-hot valleys of Basu County in the Eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are typical areas of high debris flow incidence, mapping of debris flow susceptibility identification and regional risk assessment is needed in this area.ResultsThe parameters improved Flow-R model was first applied to identify debris flow susceptibility areas in Basu county using the digital elevation model, flow accumulation, slope, plan curvature, and land use data, followed by debris flow risk assessment. The Flow-R model can output high result accuracy of high-resolution susceptibility to debris flow identification on a regional scale with less data, and its accuracy value is 87.6%, indicating that the susceptibility to regional debris flow disaster is credible. This study provides a useful basis for effective prevention of regional debris flow disasters in the future, and provides a useful method for effectively identifying the debris flow susceptibility areas and assessing the related risk in large-scale areas.Conclusions(1) The debris flow susceptibility areas in Basu County covered 97.04 km2 (0.79% of the study area), distributed mainly in the Nujiang River Valley, Lengqu tributaries, and both sides of National Highway 318. (2) The debris flow susceptibility areas were dominant in zones characterized by an altitude range of 3000–4000 m, a plane curvature of − 2/100 m−1 to 1/100 m−1, and a low slope of 20°–40°. In addition, the susceptibility areas were dominant in the unused land and less prevalent in the water area. The highest and lowest susceptibility values were observed for cultivated and unused lands, respectively. (3) The debris flow risk in the study areas accounted for 0.82 km2 and revealed a distribution of high-risk debris flow along roads. The areas with a high debris flow risk were mainly distributed along the mainstream of the Nujiang River, which is the main future protected area.