• Home
  • Search
  • The role of economic stability in boosting exports in COMESA: Threshold effects analysis
  • https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0338636Copy DOI Icon

The role of economic stability in boosting exports in COMESA: Threshold effects analysis

  • Dec 11, 2025
  • PLOS One
  • Amsalu K Addis +3 more
Show More
  • Abstract
  • Literature Map
  • References
  • Similar Papers
Abstract

Economic stability is crucial for improving export performance, particularly within regional trade blocs such as the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA). However, empirical studies examining how threshold levels of economic stability affect export dynamics among COMESA member states have been limited. This study explores the threshold effects of key economic indicators, economic growth, trade openness, and inflation, on export performance in COMESA countries using panel data from 2000 to 2022. Employing panel threshold regression analysis, this study investigates the nonlinear relationships between these variables, focusing particularly on the impact of inflation thresholds. The study found an optimal inflation threshold of 3.662%, aligning with the lower end of the global benchmark of 3–7% typically observed in emerging and developing economies. In low-inflation regimes (LnInfl ≤ 3.662), GDP significantly enhances export growth by 0.348% per unit increase, while trade openness yields a smaller contribution of 0.091%. In contrast, high-inflation scenarios (LnInfl > 3.662) show that GDP continues to support exports (0.779% increase), but trade openness negatively impacts export performance by 0.127%. Policymakers need to focus on maintaining inflation under the critical threshold of 3.662%, as this is vital for enhancing the benefits of GDP growth and trade openness on export performance. These insights underscore the necessity of keeping inflation in check to improve export competitiveness. Additionally, prioritizing monetary, fiscal, and institutional stability initiatives will support sustainable growth and strengthen regional trade dynamics within COMESA, as exceeding this inflation limit could impede export potential and regional integration efforts. This study offers valuable insights for developing regions aiming to enhance their trade performance through effective economic policies.

Similar Papers
  • Book Chapter

Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa—COMESA

  • Jul 08, 2021
  • Helen Canton
  • Research Article

Regional Economic Integration: Prevalence of Institutional-based Trust and its use to enhance Trade

  • Apr 15, 2018
  • International Journal of Regional Development
  • Catherine Phambuka-Nsimbi
  • Research Article

Contribution of Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) in the Fight against Poverty in Zambia through Agriculture and Rural Development from 2010-2021

  • Jan 01, 2023
  • International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science
  • Joseph Selisho +1
  • Research Article
  • Citations2

SAARC-COMESA

  • Mar 01, 2006
  • Journal of Developing Societies
  • Sonu Trivedi
  • Book Chapter
  • Citations3

Local Economic Development as an Alternative Development Strategy in Southern African Cities

  • Jan 01, 2020
  • Bongani Reginald Qwabe +1
  • Single Book
  • Citations10

Calibrating Informal Cross-Border Trade in Southern Africa

  • Dec 29, 2015
  • Sally Peberdy +11
  • Research Article
  • Citations1

The Role of Regional Judiciaries in Eastern and Southern Africa

  • Mar 13, 2015
  • SSRN Electronic Journal
  • Elisa Tino
  • Research Article
  • Citations1

The Impact of the Chirundu One Stop Border Post in Addressing Border Protectionist Challenges

  • Nov 01, 2015
  • Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences
  • Solomon Muqayi +1
  • Book Chapter
  • Citations1

The Tripartite Free Trade Area: A Step Closer to the African Economic Community?

  • Jan 01, 2016
  • Vincent Angwenyi
  • Research Article
  • Citations1

Examination of the relationship between employment protection regulation and unemployment: Panel case study of countries of the COMESA

  • Jan 01, 2023
  • Corporate Law and Governance Review
  • Sead Osmanović +1
  • Book Chapter

Part 2: The history and institutional frameworks of international trade in Lesotho – Chapter 2: A history of international trade in Lesotho

  • Sep 17, 2025
  • Noah Echa Attah +1
  • Research Article

Impact de l'ouverture commerciale sur croissance économique dans l'UEMOA

  • Jan 01, 2021
  • La Revue Internationale des Économistes de Langue Française
  • Tomondji Dayane Thiernaud Behanzin +1
  • Research Article

Islamic vs. Conventional Finance: Insights and Implications for Economic Growth

  • Jun 30, 2025
  • Islamic Banking and Finance Review
  • Umar Riaz +2
  • Research Article
  • Citations8

Exchange Rate Volatility and Export Performance in South Africa: (2000-2014)

  • Jan 01, 2015
  • Asian Economic and Financial Review
  • Wilson Chamunorwa +1
  • Research Article
  • Citations4

Does Financial Development Affect the Economic Growth Gains from Trade Openness?

  • Jan 01, 2020
  • Economic Alternatives
  • Imen Mohamed Sghaier
Cactus Communications logo

Copyright 2026 Cactus Communications. All rights reserved.