The search for relative value in bonds

This article establishes an original methodology to forecast macroeconomy based on the term structure of credit spreads. It combines the traditional Svensson model with genetic algorithms to obtain the interest rate term structures of government bonds and corporate bonds and calculates credit spreads as their differences. And this article defines three factors of the term structure of credit spreads: level, slope and curvature. Based on these three factors and several macroeconomic variables, VAR models are developed and tested to forecast macroeconomic variables. The empirical results confirm that VAR models can predict the changes of China's macroeconomy well, which indicates that the term structure of credit spreads contains information of future changes of macroeconomic variables. We believe this result has significant implications for macroeconomy policy-makers.

The Term Structure of Credit Spreads in Project Finance

This paper develops a two-dimensional structural framework for valuing credit default swaps and corporate bonds in the presence of default contagion. Modelling the values of related firms as correlated geometric Brownian motions with exponential default barriers, analytical formulae are obtained for both credit default swap spreads and corporate bond yields. The credit dependence structure is influenced by both a longer-term correlation structure as well as by the possibility of default contagion. In this way, the model is able to generate a diverse range of shapes for the term structure of credit spreads using realistic values for input parameters.

Credit risk, valuation and fundamental analysis

This article proposes a new dynamically consistent framework for joint valuation of equity derivatives and credit products, in which uncertainty of the economy is represented by Lévy processes. In the framework, the pre-default stock price of a given firm is presented by an extended exponential Lévy model, while the default arrival rate is presented by the Cox proportional hazard model with stochastic covariates driven by Lévy processes. Under the model, we find the solution of the pricing generator for evaluating equity and credit derivatives, and we derive the pricing formulas of equity call options and credit default swaps by utilizing the pricing generator. In the numerical examples, setting the variance gamma (VG) process and the Brownian motion as driving factors of the model, we compute term structure of credit default swaps and equity implied volatility skews. We also examine the impact of the convexity adjustment on term structure of credit spreads both analytically and numerically.

Do Credit Spreads Reflect Stationary Leverage Ratios? Reconciling Structural and Reduced-Form Frameworks

Accounting Transparency and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads

We study bond prices in Black–Cox model with jumps in asset value. We assume that the jump size distribution is arbitrary and, if default occurs, following Longstaff and Schwartz [A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt. Journal of Finance 50 (1995), 789–819] and Zhou [The Term Structure of Credit Spreads with Jump Risk. Journal of Banking & Finance 26 (2001), 2015–2040], the payoff at maturity date depends on a general write-down function. Under this general setting, we propose an integral equation approach for the bond prices. As an application of this approach, we study the analytic properties of the bond prices. Also we derive an infinite series expression for the bond prices.

On Recovery and Intensity's Correlation - A New Class of Credit Risk Models

Investment-Based Corporate Bond Pricing

This chapter highlights aspects of the vibrant ongoing research program associated with the ideas developed in earlier chapters. It begins with a collage-style sketch of work involving Bayesian analysis, functional form for factor loadings, term structures of credit spreads, and nonlinearities. It then discusses in greater detail the incorporation of more than three yield factors. Next, it treats stochastic volatility in both dynamic Nelson–Siegel model (DNS) and arbitrage-free DNS (AFNS) environments, with some attention to the issue of unspanned stochastic volatility. Finally, it discusses the incorporation of macroeconomic fundamentals in their relation to bond yields. It also introduces aspects of modeling real versus nominal yields in DNS/AFNS environments, a theme treated in detail in Chapter 5.

ABSTRACTWe investigate a structural model of market and firm‐level dynamics in order to jointly price long‐dated S&P 500 index options and CDO tranches of corporate debt. We identify market dynamics from index option prices and idiosyncratic dynamics from the term structure of credit spreads. We find that all tranches can be well priced out‐of‐sample before the crisis. During the crisis, however, our model can capture senior tranche prices only if we allow for the possibility of a catastrophic jump. Thus, senior tranches are nonredundant assets that provide a unique window into the pricing of catastrophic risk.

Credit Default Swaps (CDS): Theory Emerging into Practice (Initiated by Reserve Bank of India)

Understanding Decreasing CDS Curves

Credit default swaps are the most popular of all the credit derivative contracts traded. Their purpose is to provide financial protection against losses incurred following a credit event for a reference obligation or reference issuer. Replication arguments attempting to link credit default swaps to the price of the underlying credits are generally used by the market as a first estimate for determining the price at which a credit default swap should trade. The replication argument, however, is flawed, but fortunately there exist superior models that can be used in pricing these instruments. Keywords: contractual spread; credit default swap (CDS); credit event; default probability; default swap; default swap basis; mark-to-market value; par asset swap spread; Poisson process; static replication; survival probability