Three “Bali Deliverables” for more Food Security

The purpose of the study is to review the academic literature on food security issues in order to examine the indicators of rational and minimal nutrition, facilitating the analysis of the existing system of indicators by which to assess the state of the food security system in a country. The aim of the article is to investigate and demonstrate the imperatives behind the formation of Ukraine’s national (food) security in the context of globalization. National food security in the broad sense should be considered as the state of the economy, and more narrowly – as the guaranteed ability of a state to meet the needs of the population by providing each citizen with the required volume, range and quality of food at a level that ensures the health and intellectual development of the individual, based on the principles of self-sufficiency of basic products and their economic and physical accessibility, regardless of the influence of external and internal factors. The Global Food Security Index Ranks of the European Union and Ukraine are analyzed. Consumer expenditure on food consumed at home in Ukraine is analyzed in the article. Average food security indicators of the EU and Ukraine are analyzed for 2001–2018, in particular for food exports, food imports, food production index, food, beverages and tobacco. The dynamics and forecasts of wheat and maize harvest and crop production in Ukraine and the EU are compared. The analysis of the Suite of Food Security Indicators of the EU and Ukraine is presented alongside a comprehensive analysis of the multifactor regression model of Food Production Index from foreign direct investment, net inflows, GDP growth, GNI per capita growth, short-term debt, tax revenue, total natural resources rents, and trade. The analysis has shown that for the analysis of the food production index it is effective to build a regression model, because it allows not only to estimate the degree of influence of the factor on the result, but also to most effectively predict the size of the food production index for the future.

In December 2015, the Central Rural Work Conference put forward the structural reform of agricultural supply side, to ensure the national food security. At present, China's grain production is increasing, the supply and demand structure of grain market is not balanced, and the ineffective supply due to the lack of market supply and demand has caused the problem of structural surplus and structural shortage. And price and quality difference of domestic and international grain is obvious, and the agricultural products in China are overstock, so the reform of agricultural supply side based on food security must be implemented. To adjust structure, reduce stock, reduce cost, increase quality, promote the primary, secondary and tertiary industries convergence will become the focus of China's agricultural supply side structural reform, and we can develop the ecological agriculture, improve the competitiveness of the grain market in price and quality, to ensure food security for the nation.

Climate change is a pervasive global issue that threatens the livelihoods and wellbeing of billions living globally. Climate change is a risk multiplier impacting all ecosystems, society, and sectors of the economy. The agriculture sector is one such sector that is highly vulnerable to changes in climate. In a country like Nepal where rainfed agriculture is a dominant occupation and a key pillar of the country’s economy, climate change brings risks and negative consequences for on-farm production, farmers' livelihoods as well as on the country’s development. The impacts of climate change including rising temperatures, an increase in the frequency or intensity of extreme weather events such as drought, and shifts in the rainfall seasonality, can cause a decline in food production and threaten the quality of food supplies, leading to reduced food security. The rise in the global population will increase global demand for food which implies that agriculture needs to boost production and increase yields, among other things. The unprecedented risks posed by climate change potentially undermine the ability of farms and farm holders to grow adequate and quality food. The severity of these risks varies due to a range of underlying factors including low economic development, their location, existing biophysical and socioeconomic conditions, and institutional arrangements. While the impacts of climate change on food production as well as agricultural practices in Nepal have been documented, there is a dearth in scholarly literature that has assessed the impacts of climate change on household food security in Nepal incorporating farmers’ perspectives and in particular smallholder subsistence farmers. Furthermore, there is only modest literature that has examined geographical variations in those experiences and understandings. This PhD study aimed, therefore, to investigate the effects of climate change on agricultural practices and food security, with a focus on subsistence smallholder farmers in three main agro- ecological zones of Nepal known as The Mountains, Hills, and the Terai. The study aimed to respond to the primary research question: How are Nepalese farming communities being impacted by climate change and how are they responding to ensure their continued food security? To answer this main research, question the study posed the following secondary research questions: Q1. How is climate changing and how is it impacting subsistence agriculture? Q2. What are the farmers experiencing and what is their understanding? a. Are there gender differences in understanding and experiencing? Q3. What is the state of food insecurity among these farmers? a. How is it being impacted by climate change? Q4. What adaptation strategies have been adopted by smallholder farmers to address threats to agricultural practices and food security from climate change and other pressures? Both the qualitative and qualitative data were collected using multiple methods to address the identified research questions. Methods included a narrative literature review, systematic review, face to face interviews with farmers, individual interviews with key informants and focus groups with the women's group. Climate data on temperature between 1971-2013 and rainfall between 1967-2013 were analysed. Additionally, secondary data on crop yield from 1980 to 2016 were also analysed to gain a better empirical understanding of the relations between climate change and yield pattern and to triangulate and validate the findings from the interviews. Quantitative data on cereal crop yields and climate data were systematically tabulated and further statistically analysed using software R. This study employed the Bayesian approach to statistical modelling. Besides, this study undertook an integrated risk assessment of food insecurity using the Bayesian Belief Network model to reflect how the risk of food insecurity is influenced under two scenarios: (1) current climate conditions and (2) the influences of different adaptation strategies employed. NVivo was used for content analysis for qualitative data obtained from the key informant interview and focus group data and analysis of transcripts from farmers' structured interviews. The findings showed that agricultural practices have undergone various changes over the past 30 years. Climate change impacts were experienced by farmers in all three agro-ecological zones of Nepal. However, the impacts varied between these zones in terms of frequency and intensity. The effect of climate change was highly pronounced in the Mountains zone followed by the Hills and the Terai. The results confirmed that rural subsistence smallholder farmers dependent on rainfed agriculture are vulnerable to climate change impacts. Moreover, it disproportionately affects the poor farmers whose income hinges solely on agriculture and associated activities. Boosting agricultural production and empowering these smallholders is key to enhancing their food security. The experiences reported by farmers are well aligned with the trend of the climatic variables obtained from climate data analysis, highlighting the importance of perception-based survey in complementing climate research. The study demonstrated both the climatic and non-climatic factors are affecting agricultural practices as well as household food security of these farming communities. It is, therefore, difficult to isolate the influence of any of these factors. This was supported by the findings from the risk assessment undertaken by Bayesian modelling. Based on Bayesian modelling, the smallholder farmers mainly at the Mountain zone were at the risk of food insecurity. The measures to increase the adaptive capacity of these smallholders were found to help them manage the risk of food insecurity. Addressing the complicated and multifaceted concerns of climate change and food security needs multidisciplinary and multisectoral adaptation interventions acknowledging underlying biophysical, social, economic, geographical and environmental circumstances. Farmers have taken some actions to adapt and reduce the worsening impacts of climate change. Nevertheless, farmers encountered several barriers in effectively adapting to climate change. This study concluded there is an urgent need for a transformative level of intervention that warrants a coordinated action and collaboration between relevant stakeholders working in this field, including governments and non-governmental organizations, to target the most vulnerable and the needy smallholder farmers addressing the constraints and pressures they face. Policy and decision-makers should work extensively and sensitively with smallholders to ensure the maintenance of their livelihood and to guarantee their food security. Combining local and scientific knowledge is needed to help direct research and tailor adaptation solutions that meet local conditions and needs.

African Economic Research Consortium (AERC) through the Collaborative Masters of Science in Agricultural and Applied Economics (CMAAE) secretariat

Background:Providing food security to rural households is one of the goals pursued in national development plans. Therefore, off-farm income provides more financial resources to rural households and thus increases their food security. Given the role of food security in human health and development, the present research aims to explore the spatial effects of off-farm income on the food security of rural households in all provinces of Iran. Methods:The status of food security of rural households in Iran was determined using data from 206963 Household Income and Expenditure Surveys and the recommended dietary for the Iranian population. Besides, the effectiveness of off-farm income on food security of rural families along with other effective factors was investigated the first time using the panel spatial autoregressive (SAR) model for the period from 2006 to 2016 with Stata software. Results:The results from the SAR model suggested that off-farm income has a positive and significant effect on the rural food security index. On the other hand, the significant value of the spatial lag coefficient of the dependent variable confirmed the existence of spatial effects, indicating that off-farm income has a positive and significant effect on food security. Conclusion:Given that agricultural activities are mainly seasonal, off-farm activities along with conventional agricultural activities can improve the food security of rural households and prevent their migration to cities.

The increasing concern of food security has guided agricultural transformation as a means for economic development and poverty alleviation. This paper aims to explore the main interaction between the transformations of agriculture on cash crop choice to the food security of rural households in Indonesia. The principal component analysis is applied (PCA) to generate an index of food security over components of availability, accessibility and food stability on the food security of the households over time. The analysis is based on a household panel data survey (2001, 2006 and 2013) in the rain forest region of Central Sulawesi, Indonesia. The findings show that choosing cash crops enhances the food security of a household. Cocoa was found to have significant positive implications on improving food security, particularly by ensuring food accessibility and food stability of the rural household.

This paper determines the impact of the adoption of improved rice seeds on rural household food security, using farm‐level data from 1925 rice‐producing households in Burkina Faso. We used an endogenous switching ordered probit to assess the impact. The Consolidated Food Security Indicators (CARI) approach, which is a composite indicator, was used to measure the food security of rural households. The food consumption score (FCS) was used as a robustness test. The results show that government support, the use of fertilizers and pesticides, information, technical support, and residing in the South Sudanese area promote the adoption of improved seeds. In addition, the adoption of improved seeds increases the food security and limited food security of adopters by 12.59% and 4.37% more, respectively. Also, the adoption of improved seeds reduces the severe food insecurity of adopters by 15.4% less. This result, therefore, supports the theory that the adoption of improved seeds increases the food security of rural households. Thus, policy makers, non‐governmental organizations, and partners must focus on improved rice seeds to improve the food security of rural households in Burkina Faso.

Food security is a global challenge and threatens mainly smallholder farmers in developing countries. The main aim of this paper is to determine factors that are associated with food security in Zambia. This study utilizes the household questionnaire survey dataset of 400 smallholder farmers in four districts conducted in southern Zambia in 2016. To measure food security, the study employs two food security indicators, namely the food consumption score (FCS) and the household hunger scale (HHS). Two ordered probit models are estimated with the dependent variables FCS and HHS. Both the FCS and HHS models’ findings reveal that higher education levels of household head, increasing livestock income, secure land tenure, increasing land size, and group membership increase the probability of household food and nutrition security. The results imply that policies supporting livestock development programs such as training of farmers in animal husbandry, as well as policies increasing land tenure security and empowerment of farmers groups, have the potential to enhance household food and nutrition security.

PurposeAttaining the Sustainable Development Goal 2 (SDG2) of zero hunger continues to be a challenge in most parts of Sub-Saharan Africa. However, financial inclusion is seen as a potential pathway for reducing food insecurity among poor households. Mobile money is a financial inclusion instrument that is easily accessible to poor households and has the potential to increase the level of financial inclusion. This paper contributes to the literature by examining the determinants of mobile money adoption, its effects on household food security and the choice of coping strategies in Burundi, a post-conflict and fragile country.Design/methodology/approachUsing survey data that involved 860 households in Burundi, we adopted the Household Hunger Scale (HHS) developed under the Food and Nutrition Technical Assistance Project to measure household food security. We further employ the endogenous switching regression treatment effects model for ordered outcomes and the multivariate probit model to achieve our aims.FindingsThe results of our study reveal that the adoption of mobile money is influenced by factors such as gender, marital status, age, formal education, membership in a social network, area of residence and access to a tarred road network. Additionally, the food security status of a household was determined by marital status, formal education, social network membership, access to tarred roads, off-farm income, access to credit and land tenure security. We confirm that mobile money adoption has a significantly positive effect on the food security status of households with heterogeneity in gender and area of residence. We also find that mobile money adoption reduces the likelihood of households adopting consumption-related coping strategies.Practical implicationsThe promotion of mobile money should, therefore, be included in Burundi’s national food security policies.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the literature by providing empirical evidence on the effect of mobile money adoption on household food security and the choice of coping strategies in a post-conflict context.

As the privatized foodgrain management agency, BERNAS plays its roles in supporting and complementing the national food security policy of Malaysia. These include: (1) promoting market stability and thereby stabilizing rice prices, making them affordable to the consumers; (2) ensuring sufficient supply of rice of various grades and qualities anywhere in the country, making rice easily accessible to all; and (3) supporting the sustainability of domestic rice production which is deemed important to the national food security. These roles have established BERNAS as a ?rice institution? rather than a ?rice shop? whereby its main function is not to compete with other players in the market, but to make sure that all players in the industry would have sufficient margin to enable them to continue with their respective businesses. In doing so, BERNAS serves the interests of all stakeholders in the paddy and rice industry, including farmers, industry players, consumers, government and the nation as a whole. Due to these roles, BERNAS always has to balance between its commercial interest, since it must make reasonable profit in order to survive, and the interest of the nation as a whole. It is a delicate task in ensuring the confidence of the public and various stakeholders.

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) emphasise the reduction of poverty, hunger, and food insecurity as prerequisites for the economic development of a country. This paper examines how natural disaster shocks affect the food security of rural households in Bangladesh. We utilise the latest edition of the Bangladesh Integrated Household Survey (BIHS) produced by the International Food Policy Research Institute to understand the determinants of food security. In contrast to the existing literature, we use the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) to measure household food security. The empirical result from an ordered logit regression suggests that households that are exposed to natural disaster shocks are more likely to be food insecure compared with households that have not been exposed to such shocks. Furthermore, international remittances increase food security, while domestic remittances do not significantly affect household food security. The study also found that the marital status and education of the household head, household indebtedness, household size, education, expenditures and landownership significantly affect food security. Our findings underscore the importance of investing in the development of infrastructure and food storage facilities in rural communities to tackle food insecurity. Moreover, increasing technical knowledge and improving the quality of education are vital to strengthen food security in Bangladesh.

The paper examines determinants of household food security among rural households in the Ada Berga district in central Ethiopia. Household calorie acquisition was analyzed to measure the status of household food security. Based on the survey of 196 farm households, the logistic model was estimated. Variables related to experiences in farming activities, off-farm and non-farm incomes, land and livestock holdings, as well as soil and water conservation practices significantly affect household food security. A difference in the use of chemical fertilizer has a positive impact on food security where improved food security was observed as the intensity of fertilizer use increases. Results indicate that development interventions aiming at increased income diversification, improved supply of fertilizer, increasing land and livestock productivity will immensely contribute to the attainment of food security. In general, the results of the study produce the implication that attaining food security in the highlands of Ethiopia requires adoption of mixed strategies and policies.

Introduction. The development of measures to ensure national food security, improve state regulation of the agri-food market, and enhance food accessibility must become a strategic priority, given that physical, economic, and social access to food is a fundamental condition. Improving food availability is viewed as a key objective, and ensuring it in the long term requires the organization of systematic monitoring of food accessibility levels. Assessing the state of food security requires the formation of an optimal set of indicators that reflect the multifaceted nature of this concept. Scholars distinguish seven levels of food security: global, subregional, international, national, regional, household, and individual, each addressing specific challenges at the respective level. Methodology. The research employed general scientific and specific methods, including: abstract-logical (systematization and theoretical generalization of views on state food security); generalization and abstraction (study of scientific approaches to the concept of food security strategy); historical and comparative analysis (study of the evolution and modern approaches to economic development strategy); formalization (development of methodological principles for assessing national food security); induction and deduction (justification of food security threats); statistical (study of food security trends in Ukraine); and comparative analysis (evaluation of international strategic approaches to food security, consumption levels, food expenditures, and self-sufficiency in Ukraine). Graphical methods were used to visualize key theoretical concepts and empirical results. Results. It is established that the “Automated Food Security Monitoring System of Ukraine” should not only track food security indicators but also serve as an effective management tool. This is only possible by incorporating forecasting and modelling into the architecture of the information system. The proposed food security monitoring system is universal, and its annual implementation will provide government and local authorities with comprehensive information on the current state and development trends of the national food system. This will serve as a foundation for developing effective strategic and tactical actions to meet scientifically grounded food security criteria.

This study examines the issue of consumer agency within the food system as manifested by food secure and food insecure households in an urban neighborhood in the United States. Using a self-administered mail survey this study examines food retailer perception and shopping behaviour of food secure and insecure households in Lansing, Michigan. Food security represents a useful lens through which to examine the issue of agency since food, while a necessary part of life, is nonetheless something that is difficult to access for a large sector of the population. By examining both food secure and food insecure households, light is shed on some of the factors that lead to the relative ability of each group to successfully and reliably obtain food. In particular, this study focuses on the perception and behaviour of consumers in relation to the decision to shop, or not to shop, at various food retailers. Some theories of consumer behaviour tend to focus either on class related cultural elements which determine taste preferences while other theories focus on structural elements of the food system which force a limited selection onto various social groups. While certainly class culture influences taste preference to some extent, results from this study suggest that structural elements of the food system and economic differences between food secure and food insecure households have a larger influence on store choice than cultural preferences. In fact, both food secure and insecure households indicated similar sets of criteria used in determining store choices. However, in examination of actual shopping behaviours, this study found that food insecure households are more likely to shop at deep discounters and more likely to travel farther to obtain food. These results suggest that structural elements such as food retailer locations limit the range of shopping options of food insecure households when compared to food secure households. Keywords: food desert, food access, food security, consumer, food retailer

How smallholders may contribute to food and nutrition security remains a key challenge in many developing countries. Despite being the main rural actors, smallholders are frequently the most food insecure, given an array of biophysical and socioeconomic challenges that were addressed during the workshop. These proceedings discuss the potential role of smallholders in food security and in poverty reduction. The opportunities and constraints are assessed, by analysing the availability, access and utilisation of production factors. The key message is that enhancing smallholders’ production capacities and their economic and social resilience may have a positive impact on food security and nutrition at different levels. However, not all smallholders are the same, and assistance strategies need to differentiate between smallholders who should be ‘moving up’ into more productive systems and those who should be ‘moving out’ of farming. The choice should depend on the type of constraints smallholders face. The analysis considers, in addition to the role of small farmers as food suppliers, smallholders’ role as consumers and their level of nutrition security. The link between agriculture and nutrition is analysed to understand how agriculture affects human health and dietary patterns. Given the importance of smallholdings, strategies to increase productivity in agriculture are essential to improve food and nutrition security, as is food diversity. Finally, synergies and trade-offs between economic, environmental and social objectives and outcomes are analysed through an overview of the methods and tools used to assess food security on small farms at household level. Models at country level are usually focused on long-term conditions, but short-term analyses would also be welcome. Developing global models to assess food security is also relevant, to include trade issues in the analysis. Models at farm household level in developing countries have a valuable role to play in the analysis of the impact of any policy on small farmers.