Time-variant reliability analysis of ship grillage structure

Response uncertainty evaluation and dynamic reliability analysis corresponding to classical stochastic dynamic analysis are usually restricted to the uncertainties of the excitation. The inclusion of the parameter uncertainties contained in structural properties and excitation characteristics has become an increasingly important problem in many areas of dynamics. In the present paper, a point estimate procedure is proposed for the evaluation of stochastic response uncertainty, and a response surface approach procedure in standard normal space is proposed for analysis of time-variant reliability analysis for hysteretic MDF structures having parameter uncertainties. Using the proposed procedures, the response uncertainties and time-variant reliability can be easily obtained by several repetitions of stochastic response analysis under given parameters without conducting sensitivity analysis, which is considered to be one of the primary difficulties associated with conventional methods. In the time-variant reliability analysis, the failure probability can be readily obtained by improving the accuracy of the first-order reliability method using the empirical second-order reliability index. The random variables are divided into two groups, those with CDF and those without CDF. The latter are included via the high-order moment standardization technique. A numerical example of a 15F hysteretic MDF structure that takes into account uncertainties of four structural parameters and three excitation characteristics is performed, based on which the proposed procedures are investigated and the effects of parameter uncertainties are discussed. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

This paper reviewes the research on time-varying reliability of structures in recent years and sums up the problems existing in the system structure of the development of the time-varying reliability, according to the objectives and requirements of reliability theory, the paper introduces some of time-varying reliability calculation method and points out the shortages existing in the above calculation method. Moreover, it further discusses the future research direction of time-varying reliability. Finally, the paper puts forward several approaches for the time-varying reliability analysis of structure.

The active-learning Kriging (ALK)–based time-variant system reliability analysis has been widely concentrated. Unfortunately, the current time-variant system reliability methods are mostly focused on the series system, parallel system, or series-parallel system; thus, they cannot efficiently deal with the time-variant reliability problem of a complex system such as bridge system, network system, and so on. In view of this issue, the paper proposes an efficient time-variant reliability method for a complex system by introducing the structure function into the ALK-based time-variant reliability analysis. Firstly, similar to the ALK-based time-variant system reliability method, some extreme values corresponding to the initial input samples are optimized, and thus the initial extremum response surface is constructed based on the Kriging model. Then, considering the epistemic uncertainty of the Kriging predictions, the predicted response of system structure function under a particular input sample is viewed as a random variable, and its mean and variance are computed based on the minimal cut sets of a complex system. Lastly, considering the aleatory uncertainty between the different candidate samples, the point corresponding to the maximum prediction variance is selected, the most important component is decided by introducing the structure importance, and its extreme value is correspondingly optimized to update the initial extremum response surface. The stopping criterion is also provided in this paper and the effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated by several examples.

Time-variant reliability analysis can effectively estimate the safe state of structures under dynamic uncertainties during their lifecycle. However, one of its key challenging issues is computational efficiency. To improve the efficiency, this paper develops an approximation of the first-crossing probability density function (PDF) method, termed AFC-PDFM, based on the first-crossing theory. The response surface of the first-crossing time point (FCTP) about input variables is first estimated by using the moving least squares method (MLSM) and uniform design. Furthermore, an iterative algorithm is developed to compute the origin moments of the FCTP based on the MLSM response surface. Finally, the PDF of the FCTP is obtained by combining the origin moments and the maximum entropy method to avoid direct calculations of the first-crossing rate, which is often intractable, and then the time-variant reliability is estimated. Three examples are implemented to testify and validate the effectiveness of the proposed method and potential applications to engineering problems.

During the long-term service periods of Prestressed Concrete(PC) continuous girder bridges, structural time-varying reliability will degrade due to cyclic creep induced by dynamic vehicle loading, which increases the risk of structural failure. This paper provided a time-varying reliability prediction method for the prestressed concrete continuous T-girder bridge considering random vehicle load information and cyclic creep information. Firstly, the random vehicle load information is simulated with Monte Carlo random simulation method and MATLAB software based on the monitored data obtained from weigh-in-motion (WIM) system. Then, the concrete shrinkage strain model, concrete static creep strain model, concrete cyclic creep strain model and the overall strain model are respectively provided by combining the CEB-FIP model with concrete cyclic creep theory. Finally, by using a numerical model of prestressed concrete bridge, a time-variant reliability analyzing approach of prestressed concrete T-girder bridge considering the limit state of load carrying capacity and the limit state of serviceability is investigated in detail by integrating the random vehicle loading information with the concrete cyclic creep information.

This paper discusses the effects of corrosion and slamming on Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) structures in the North Sea by using a time variant structural reliability based approach. An FPSO structure currently in operation in the North Sea is analysed, an analytical approach is suggested and used to determine the Ultimate Strength of the FPSO structure and compared with other published methods. A non-linear corrosion method is then used to determine the effect of corrosion on the ultimate strength and subsequently in the reliability of the structure. Slamming loads on the midship section of the FPSO are calculated using closed form expressions. The effect of slamming and green water load on the overall vertical bending moment applied on the structure is combined with the vertical wave bending and still water loads using the Ferry Borges- Castanheta method and the SRSS rule, to provide the distribution and variation of a loading component for structural reliability analysis to be performed. Time variant reliability analysis using Monte Carlo Simulation is then used to determine reliability indices and probabilities of failure for the structural system analysed on a component level.

Introduction.In the mathematical finite element modeling, an average value of the mechanical characteristics of the deformable solid material is used. In aircraft, machine building, construction engineering, medicine and other fields, polymer composite materials and materials of natural origin are increasingly used. In the latter case, the actual change in the mechanical characteristics differs significantly from the averaged change; therefore, when using the averaged parameters to build and analyze finite element models, the results can be significantly distorted. This paper describes the creation of mathematical methods for studying changes in the mechanical characteristics of a material of inhomogeneous deformable solids. The results obtained in this way are used to construct finite element models and analyze their stress-strain state.Materials and Methods. Naturally occurring materials and composites are considered as inhomogeneous deformable solids. To study the changes in the mechanical characteristics of the material, a method was developed based on the use of two components: the pixel characteristics of raster images scanned by a computer tomograph and the experimental data of field tests of standard samples.Research Results.A complex of mathematical methods has been developed for modeling the interpretation of scanning raster images by a computer tomograph, which allows for the study of any complicated structures of real deformable solids. The results are used in the construction of finite element models of such bodies considering the heterogeneity of the mechanical characteristics of the material. The analysis of the stress-strain state of finite element models of test samples has proved the accuracy and convergence of the numerical solution of the finite element method in modeling the property of heterogeneity of the mechanical characteristics of the material.Discussion and Conclusions. The developed approach can be applied to any physical principles of scanning (X-ray, ultrasound, laser, etc.) and for any types of materials if the data obtained as a result of scanning is developed in the form of a digital (raster) image.

Bond behavior between steel bar and concrete considering cryogenic temperatures and confinement

Conditional reliability of bulk carriers damaged by ship collisions

Efficient time-variant reliability analysis of Bazimen landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area using XGBoost and LightGBM algorithms

Time‐dependent reliability analysis of structures by the use of an outcrossing approach normally requires the so‐called outcrossing rate to be estimated. A variety of methods has been recorded in the literature to evaluate this rate both for continues and discrete processes. Despite the availability of these methods, still more general and at the same time less sophisticated approaches are desired. In this paper, attempt is made to use the basic idea of “parallel system reliability formulation” to calculate the outcrossing rate for circumstances where the processes are continuous. These calculations are carried out by directional simulation. It is shown that this approach is simple to implement and may be used for the cases where the problem involves nonstationary processes and also for the cases where several limit state functions may have to be considered.

The meaning of the creation and functioning of the system is defined as the achievement of extreme values of goals that unite the individual elements of the system into a single whole. Based on this, the main system attributes of composite materials are indicated. It is assumed that the systemic effect is generated by the systemic properties of quality criteria. The implementation of the technical task is initially determined at the stage of cognitive modeling with the establishment of intensive and extensive properties with the allocation of control parameters. Based on the cognitive map, hierarchical structures of quality criteria are determined, and in accordance with the selected quality criteria, the corresponding structural schemes of the system (for each selected scale level). Further, the system's quality criteria are formalized, and mathematical models are developed in accordance with each of the criteria. The main purpose of using system analysis is to apply the general principles of decomposition of the system into individual elements and establish connections between them, in determining the research goal and stages to achieve this goal (based on solving single-criterion optimization problems using the found optimal values). The formalization of the multicriteria problem and its solution are made based on the required operational values, the type of kinetic processes of the formation of the physical and mechanical characteristics of the material (determine its structure and properties). The problem of materials synthesis is reduced to the choice of the order and type of the differential equation; parametric identification within the chosen model; comparison of experimental and model kinetic processes at a given accuracy; adjusting the model (if necessary). Therefore, it is important to interpolate the kinetic processes of the formation of the main physical and mechanical characteristics of composite materials. The technological process is considered as a complex system consisting of elements of various levels of detail: from atomic to a separate process. Decomposition of the technological process consists in dividing it into basic operations (elements): preparation of materials, mixing of components, molding of a semi-finished product, heat treatment and additional operations. The effectiveness of this approach was confirmed in the development of chemically resistant sulfur composites, epoxy composites for radiation protection, etc. The initial prerequisite was the required operational values of the material and the type of kinetic processes. The results of effective use of interpolation models (including splines) of compressive strength, heat release, and shrinkage of composite epoxy materials are presented.

Time-variant reliability-based prediction of COVID-19 spread using extended SEIVR model and Monte Carlo sampling

The metrological problems of measuring the physic and mechanical characteristics of materials by dynamic indentation are considered. It is shown that the estimation of measurement error demanding the creation of the reference blocks is ineffective due to the wide variety of controlled materials and a wide range of changes in their properties. A technique has been developed for evaluating the accuracy of measurements based on the errors of individual parameters included in the calculation equation, i.e. by determining the error of indirect measurements. The technique is based on the estimation of the boundaries of the random error of the measured characteristics of the material and the non-excluded systematic errors of the parameters that are used for the calculations of needed characteristics. The results of experimental studies are presented, indicating that due to the different character of the dependencies of hardness and elastic modulus, the error in measuring the elastic modulus exceeds the error in measuring hardness. In addition, it was found that the error in measuring the characteristics of materials by the dynamic indentation method exceeds the measurement error by the static indentation method and can be reduced by increasing the accuracy of the equipment used for the registration of impact process. The obtained values of the physic and mechanical characteristics of the materials and the values of the measurement error show that the dynamic indentation method can effectively solve the problem of non-destructive testing of hardness, elastic modulus, and strain hardening exponent of metals and products with an appropriate error.

Formulations are presented for estimating probability of failure considering uncertainty of distribution parameters in time invariant and time variant reliability analyses. Based on the formulations the probability of failure can be calculated by recursively using the first order reliability method. Also, a more efficient approximate analysis procedure by using the point estimate method to estimate the probability of failure is given. In this analysis procedure, the point estimate method is used to discretize the uncertain distribution parameters in the time invariant reliability analysis, and to discretize the time-independent random variables and uncertain distribution parameters in the time variant reliability analysis. The probability of failure is then obtained by weighting the probability of failure conditioned at each of discrete points. The conditional probability of failure can be calculated by using first order reliability method, second order reliability method or any other convenient ...