Tractable Bayesian density regression via logit stick-breaking priors

Mixture distributions are widely used to model data with distinct groups, providing a flexible approach to estimating density. However, Bayesian approaches for mixture models pose challenges, such as label switching in the Gibbs sampler output due to the non-identifiability of component parameters. We review advanced methods for Bayesian analysis, including the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) reversible jump algorithm and model comparison based on joint measures of fit and complexity. We also present a Bayesian regression model based on a two-component mixture model, implemented using the Gibbs sampler algorithm and applied to a dataset of time measurement differences between two clocks. Our theoretical investigation highlights the importance of latent variables in implementing the Bayesian normal mixture model with two components. When applied to the dataset, our model effectively assigned probabilities to the two states of the phenomenon under study and identified two processes with identical slopes, intercepts, and variances. Our findings demonstrate the power of Bayesian mixture models in uncovering hidden structures within complex datasets. In general, our review and application provide insight into the challenges and potential solutions for Bayesian mixture modeling and highlight the usefulness of these methods in various fields.

This dissertation focuses on the development of multiple imputation models and algorithms for high-dimensional data with variable selection structures. Leveraging on the multivariate linear mixed-effects model with missing responses for clustered data, we incorporate the variable selection routines using spike-and-slab priors within the Bayesian variable selection framework. Specific choice of these priors allow us to "force'' variables of importance (e.g. design variables or variables known to play role in missingness mechanism) into the imputation models. Our ultimate goal is to improve computational speed by removing unnecessary variables. Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques have been designed to sample from the implied posterior distributions for model unknowns as well as missing data. A computationally efficient alternative, namely, variational inference algorithms have also been developed to overcome the computational burden of Markov chain Monte Carlo for sampling the posterior predictive distribution missing data. The continuous imputation model and algorithm can be easily modified through a calibration-based rounding strategy for multiple imputation of categorical variables. We also compare two imputation strategies, i.e., the sequential imputation and the joint modeling imputation, has been made in the presence of variable selection structures. We design a joint modeling based imputation framework using a nonparametric Bayesian Dirichlet process mixture model together with a sparse precision matrix model. Two computational algorithms have been carefully designed: the Gibbs sampler and the variational Bayesian inference algorithm. The proposed methodology can be applied to both continuous and mixed continuous and categorical missing data.

The elicitation of an ordinal judgment on multiple alternatives is often required in many psychological and behavioral experiments to investigate preference/choice orientation of a specific population. The Plackett-Luce model is one of the most popular and frequently applied parametric distributions to analyze rankings of a finite set of items. The present work introduces a Bayesian finite mixture of Plackett-Luce models to account for unobserved sample heterogeneity of partially ranked data. We describe an efficient way to incorporate the latent group structure in the data augmentation approach and the derivation of existing maximum likelihood procedures as special instances of the proposed Bayesian method. Inference can be conducted with the combination of the Expectation-Maximization algorithm for maximum a posteriori estimation and the Gibbs sampling iterative procedure. We additionally investigate several Bayesian criteria for selecting the optimal mixture configuration and describe diagnostic tools for assessing the fitness of ranking distributions conditionally and unconditionally on the number of ranked items. The utility of the novel Bayesian parametric Plackett-Luce mixture for characterizing sample heterogeneity is illustrated with several applications to simulated and real preference ranked data. We compare our method with the frequentist approach and a Bayesian nonparametric mixture model both assuming the Plackett-Luce model as a mixture component. Our analysis on real datasets reveals the importance of an accurate diagnostic check for an appropriate in-depth understanding of the heterogenous nature of the partial ranking data.

Detection of Mastitis in Dairy Cattle by Use of Mixture Models for Repeated Somatic Cell Scores: A Bayesian Approach via Gibbs Sampling

SummaryThe paper considers Bayesian methods for density regression, allowing a random probability distribution to change flexibly with multiple predictors. The conditional response distribution is expressed as a non-parametric mixture of regression models, with the mixture distribution changing with predictors. A class of weighted mixture of Dirichlet process priors is proposed for the uncountable collection of mixture distributions. It is shown that this specification results in a generalized Pólya urn scheme, which incorporates weights that are dependent on the distance between subjects’ predictor values. To allow local dependence in the mixture distributions, we propose a kernel-based weighting scheme. A Gibbs sampling algorithm is developed for posterior computation. The methods are illustrated by using simulated data examples and an epidemiologic application.

Genetic Analysis of Somatic Cell Scores in US Holsteins with a Bayesian Mixture Model

Estimation for the number of components in a mixture model using stepwise split-and-merge EM algorithm

This paper proposes a novel model estimation method, which uses nested Gibbs sampling to develop a mixture-of-mixture model to represent the distribution of the model's components with a mixture model. This model is suitable for analyzing multilevel data comprising frame-wise observations, such as videos and acoustic signals, which are composed of frame-wise observations. Deterministic procedures, such as the expectation–maximization algorithm have been employed to estimate these kinds of models, but this approach often suffers from a large bias when the amount of data is limited. To avoid this problem, we introduce a Markov chain Monte Carlo-based model estimation method. In particular, we aim to identify a suitable sampling method for the mixture-of-mixture models. Gibbs sampling is a possible approach, but this can easily lead to the local optimum problem when each component is represented by a multi-modal distribution. Thus, we propose a novel Gibbs sampling method, called “nested Gibbs sampling,” which represents the lower-level (fine) data structure based on elemental mixture distributions and the higher-level (coarse) data structure based on mixture-of-mixture distributions. We applied this method to a speaker clustering problem and conducted experiments under various conditions. The results demonstrated that the proposed method outperformed conventional sampling-based, variational Bayesian, and hierarchical agglomerative methods.

The expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm is a popular approach for parameter estimation of finite mixture model (FMM). A drawback of this approach is that the number of components of the finite mixture model is not known in advance, nevertheless, it is a key issue for EM algorithms. In this paper, a penalized minimum matching distance-guided EM algorithm is discussed. Under the framework of Greedy EM, a fast and accurate algorithm for estimating the number of components of the Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is proposed. The performance of this algorithm is validated via simulative experiments of univariate and bivariate Gaussian mixture models.

Recommender systems have become an important area of research with numerous applications on e-commerce. This chapter introduces a joint statistical model for user preferences and item features that can serve as the basis for a recommendation about recently published scientific papers. The model is constructed using ideas from the literature on Bayesian nonparametric mixture modeling. More specifically, user preferences are modeled using an Infinite Relational Model (IRM) in which both users and items are independently partitioned into homogeneous groups, while item features are modeled using a topic model, which also partitions items into groups with homogenous features. Information is shared across both components of the model through a common partition of items. Hence, the model is a hybrid system that combines ideas from collaborative and content-based filtering. The chapter discusses three different computational strategies, including a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for full posterior inference, an iterated conditional maximization algorithm, and a mean-field variational algorithm for point estimation and prediction in large datasets where Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches might not be practical. The model is illustrated through simulation studies and by analyzing data from CiteULike.

We develop a novel Bayesian density regression model based on logistic Gaussian processes and subspace projection. Logistic Gaussian processes provide an attractive alternative to the popular stick-breaking processes for modeling a family of conditional densities that vary smoothly in the conditioning variable. Subspace projection offers dimension reduction of predictors through multiple linear combinations, offering an alternative to the zeroing out theme of variable selection. We illustrate that logistic Gaussian processes and subspace projection combine well to produce a computationally tractable and theoretically sound density regression procedure that offers good out of sample prediction, accurate estimation of subspace projection and satisfactory estimation of subspace dimensionality. We also demonstrate that subspace projection may lead to better prediction than variable selection when predictors are well chosen and possibly dependent on each other, each having a moderate influence on the response.

Asymptotic theory of tail index estimation has been studied extensively in the frequentist literature on extreme values, but rarely in the Bayesian context. We investigate whether popular Bayesian kernel mixture models are able to support heavy tailed distributions and consistently estimate the tail index. We show that posterior inconsistency in tail index is surprisingly common for both parametric and nonparametric mixture models. We then present a set of sufficient conditions under which posterior consistency in tail index can be achieved, and verify these conditions for Pareto mixture models under general mixing priors.

We investigate the use of a large class of discrete random probability measures, which is referred to as the class $$\mathcal {Q}$$Q, in the context of Bayesian nonparametric mixture modeling. The class $$\mathcal {Q}$$Q encompasses both the the two-parameter Poisson---Dirichlet process and the normalized generalized Gamma process, thus allowing us to comparatively study the inferential advantages of these two well-known nonparametric priors. Apart from a highly flexible parameterization, the distinguishing feature of the class $$\mathcal {Q}$$Q is the availability of a tractable posterior distribution. This feature, in turn, leads to derive an efficient marginal MCMC algorithm for posterior sampling within the framework of mixture models. We demonstrate the efficacy of our modeling framework on both one-dimensional and multi-dimensional datasets.

Using general regression with local tuning for learning mixture models from incomplete data sets

This chapter introduces several fundamental models and algorithms for probabilistic clustering, including mixture models, Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm, and probabilistic topic models. It focuses on general framework of modeling, the probabilistic explanation, the standard algorithms to learn the model, and its applications. Mixture models are probabilistic models which are increasingly used to find the clusters for univariate and multivariate data. The chapter begins the discussion of mixture models, in which the values of the discrete latent variables can be interpreted as the assignments of data points to specific components of the mixture. It uses the Gaussian mixture model to motivate the EM algorithm in an informal way, and then gives a more general view of the EM algorithm, which is a standard learning algorithm for many probabilistic models. The chapter presents two popular probabilistic topic models, i.e., probabilistic latent semantic analysis (PLSA) and latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA), for document clustering and analysis.