Traffic Prediction Model Based on Spatio-temporal Graph Attention Network

Traffic flow forecasting is an essential task of an intelligent transportation system (ITS), closely related to intelligent transportation management and resource scheduling. Dynamic spatial-temporal dependencies in traffic data make traffic flow forecasting to be a challenging task. Most existing research cannot model dynamic spatial and temporal correlations to achieve well-forecasting performance. The multi-head self-attention mechanism is a valuable method to capture dynamic spatial-temporal correlations, and combining it with graph convolutional networks is a promising solution. Therefore, we propose a multi-head self-attention spatiotemporal graph convolutional network (MSASGCN) model. It can effectively capture local correlations and potential global correlations of spatial structures, can handle dynamic evolution of the road network, and, in the time dimension, can effectively capture dynamic temporal correlations. Experiments on two real datasets verify the stability of our proposed model, obtaining a better prediction performance than the baseline algorithms. The correlation metrics get significantly reduced compared with traditional time series prediction methods and deep learning methods without using graph neural networks, according to MAE and RMSE results. Compared with advanced traffic flow forecasting methods, our model also has a performance improvement and a more stable prediction performance. We also discuss some problems and challenges in traffic forecasting.

Traffic forecasting plays a critical role in intelligent transportation systems (ITS) in smart cities. Travelers as well as urban managers rely on reliable traffic information to make their decisions for route choice and traffic management. However, noisy or missing traffic data poses a problem for accurate and robust traffic forecasting. While data-driven models such as deep neural networks can achieve high prediction accuracy with complete datasets, sensor malfunctions, and environmental effects degrade the performance of such models, as these models rely heavily on precise traffic measurements for model training and estimation. Consequently, incomplete traffic data poses a challenge for robust model design that can make accurate traffic forecasts with noisy/missing data. This research proposes the Robust Spatiotemporal Graph Convolutional Network (RT-GCN), a traffic prediction model that handles noise perturbations and missing data using a Gaussian distributed node representation and a variance based attention mechanism. Through experiments conducted on four real-world traffic datasets using diverse noisy and missing scenarios, the proposed RT-GCN model has demonstrated its ability to handle noise perturbations and missing values and provide high accuracy prediction.

Establishing a high-precision passenger flow prediction model is a critical and complex task for the optimization of urban rail transit systems. With the development of artificial intelligence technology, the data-driven technology has been widely studied in the intelligent transportation system. In this study, a neural network model based on the data-driven technology is established for the prediction of passenger flow in multiple urban rail transit stations to enable smart perception for optimizing urban railway transportation. The integration of network units with different specialities in the proposed model allows the network to capture passenger flow data, temporal correlation, spatial correlation, and spatiotemporal correlation with the dual attention mechanism, further improving the prediction accuracy. Experiments based on the actual passenger flow data of Beijing Metro Line 13 are conducted to compare the prediction performance of the proposed data-driven model with the other baseline models. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed prediction model achieves lower MAE and RMSE in passenger flow prediction, and its fitted curve more closely aligns with the actual passenger flow data. This demonstrates the model’s practical potential to enhance intelligent transportation system management through more accurate passenger flow forecasting.

Accurate traffic forecasting is essential for intelligent transportation system management and control. Due to the highly complex spatiotemporal (ST) correlation of real-world road networks, dynamic and long-term traffic prediction presents many challenges. We propose a traffic speed prediction model based on dynamic structural prior (DSP) ST graph attention networks. We provide a structural prior graph, namely, dual graph convolution, which combines spatial and contextual subgraphs to enable the discovery of the non-Euclidean spatial correlation and potential contextual similarity of road networks. Moreover, to dynamically extract the ST correlation, this article employs a multihead self-attention temporal convolution module to capture the temporal correlation and a graph attention convolution module to extract the spatial correlation. The prediction output is generated by stacking multiple ST blocks. Experimental results on two real-world traffic datasets demonstrate that DSP-ST outperforms existing mainstream baselines, which can provide references for traffic management departments.

CPNet: Conditionally parameterized graph convolutional network for traffic forecasting

An efficient spatial-temporal transformer with temporal aggregation and spatial memory for traffic forecasting

With the development of 5G and Internet of Things technologies, the application process of smart transportation in smart cities continues to advance. Sensors are a key source of information for smart transportation, and their data commonly includes complicated traffic scene information. Urban traffic scheduling and efficiency can be significantly increased by deploying data from smart sensors to forecast traffic flows. Despite the fact that some related works have focused on the prediction task of traffic flows, they have not completely mined the traffic spatiotemporal information present in smart sensor data. We offer a novel graph spatio-temporal attention algorithm (GSAA) for traffic prediction in this paper. To completely exploit the geographical and temporal correlations among complicated roadways for traffic forecast, the algorithm combines a spatiotemporal attention mechanism with a graph neural network.To take full advantage of how much effect various hyperparameters provide, deep reinforcement learning is used to obtain the optimal hyperparameters while the predictive model is trained. Experimental results on real-world public datasets show that the algorithm proposed in this paper achieves performance improvements of about 5.47% and 13.10% over the MAE (mean absolute error) than the best baseline strategies for short-term and long-term traffic forecasting, respectively.

Accurate spatio-temporal traffic forecasting serves as the basis of dynamic strategy and applications for intelligent transportation systems, which is of great practical significance for improving traffic safety and mitigating road congestion. Recently, deep learning methods such as convolutional neural networks (CNN) have been applied to traffic flow forecasting, which exhibits better performance than conventional methods. However, these CNN-based methods typically learn traffic as images to model spatial correlation, which is only applicable to Euclidean grid map data rather than non-Euclidean multi-sensor data. To address this problem, we propose a graph-based temporal attention framework GTA, which considers both spatial and temporal correlation, to forecast traffic flow based on data collected from multiple sensors. More specifically, GTA can better capture spatial dependencies leveraging graph embedding techniques on sensor networks because it preserves more details in the algorithms. We also introduce an attention mechanism to adaptively identify the relations among temporal submodules. Spatio-temporal dependencies are more effectively and comprehensively integrated due to the full use of the topological properties of transportation networks. We evaluate GTA with a large-scale traffic dataset from England and enhance it with topology information. The experimental results show that our approach outperforms several state-of-the-art baselines.

Deep spatio-temporal 3D densenet with multiscale ConvLSTM-Resnet network for citywide traffic flow forecasting

With the exponential increase in the urban population, urban transportation systems are confronted with numerous challenges. Traffic congestion is common, traffic accidents happen frequently, and traffic environments are deteriorating. To alleviate these issues and improve the efficiency of urban transportation, accurate traffic forecasting is crucial. In this study, we aim to provide a comprehensive overview of the overall architecture of traffic forecasting, covering aspects such as traffic data analysis, traffic data modeling, and traffic forecasting applications. We begin by introducing existing traffic forecasting surveys and preliminaries. Next, we delve into traffic data analysis from traffic data collection, traffic data formats, and traffic data characteristics. Additionally, we summarize traffic data modeling from spatial representation, temporal representation, and spatio-temporal representation. Furthermore, we discuss the application of traffic forecasting, including traffic flow forecasting, traffic speed forecasting, traffic demand forecasting, and other hybrid traffic forecasting. To support future research in this field, we also provide information on open datasets, source resources, challenges, and potential research directions. As far as we know, this paper represents the first comprehensive survey that focuses specifically on the overall architecture of traffic forecasting.

Accurate traffic speed forecasting is a prerequisite for anticipating future traffic status and increasing the resilience of intelligent transportation systems. However, most studies ignore the involvement of context information ubiquitously distributed over the urban environment to boost speed prediction. The diversity and complexity of context information also hinder incorporating it into traffic forecasting. Therefore, this study proposes a multimodal context-based graph convolutional neural network (MCGCN) model to fuse context data into traffic speed prediction, including spatial and temporal contexts. The proposed model comprises three modules, ie (a) hierarchical spatial embedding to learn spatial representations by organizing spatial contexts from different dimensions, (b) multivariate temporal modeling to learn temporal representations by capturing dependencies of multivariate temporal contexts and (c) attention-based multimodal fusion to integrate traffic speed with the spatial and temporal context representations for multi-step speed prediction. We conduct extensive experiments in Singapore. Compared to the baseline model (spatial-temporal graph convolutional network, STGCN), our results demonstrate the importance of multimodal contexts with the mean-absolute-error improvement of 0.29 km/h, 0.45 km/h and 0.89 km/h in 30-min, 60-min and 120-min speed prediction, respectively. We also explore how different contexts affect traffic speed forecasting, providing references for stakeholders to understand the relationship between context information and transportation systems.

Stochastic methods have been typically used for the design and operations of hydraulic infrastructure. They allow decision makers to evaluate existing or new infrastructure under different possible scenarios, giving them the flexibility and tools needed in decision making. In this paper, we present a novel stochastic streamflow simulation approach able to replicate both temporal and spatial dependencies from the original data in a multi‐site basin context. The proposed model is a multi‐site extension of the modified Fractional Gaussian Noise (mFGN) model which is well‐known to be efficient to maintain periodic correlation for several time lags, but presents shortcomings in preserving the spatial correlation. Our method, called Weighted‐mFGN (WmFGN), incorporates spatial dependency into streamflows simulated with mFGN by relying on the Cholesky decomposition of the spatial correlation matrix of the historical streamflow records. As the order in which the decomposition steps are performed (temporal then spatial, or vice‐versa) affects the performance in terms of preserving the temporal and spatial correlation, our method searches for an optimal convex combination of the resulting correlation matrices. The result is a Pareto‐curve that indicates the optimal weights of the convex combination depending on the importance given by the user to spatial and temporal correlations. The model is applied to a number of river basins in Chile, where the results show that the WmFGN approach maintains the qualities of the single‐site mFGN, while significantly improving spatial correlation.

Research on spatio-temporal network prediction model of parallel–series traffic flow based on Transformer and GCAT

Taxis are part of the important components of urban transportation, and the demand for taxis is essential to build an efficient transportation system in smart cities. Accurate taxi demand forecasts can guide vehicle scheduling, improve vehicle utilization, ease traffic congestion, and improve passenger ride experience. Aiming at the complex spatiotemporal and spatial dependence of taxi demand, how to accurately predict taxi demand is a current research hotspot. This paper proposes a new taxi usage demand forecasting model, namely CGRU model, which uses spectral domain graph convolutional networks(ChebNet) to encode the topology of taxi usage requirements to obtain topological correlations, while modelling spatial correlations with reference to usage requirements of other regions of functional similarity in that region, using gated recurrent units(GRU) model the temporal correlation, combine the spatial correlation with the temporal correlation, and complete the analysis of the temporal and spatial correlation of the taxi demand. The proposed model is assessed on the NYCTAXI_DYNA open-source dataset, and the results show that the CGRU model outperforms the baseline model on evaluation metrics such as MAE and RMSE.

Traffic flow forecasting, especially the short-term case, is an important topic in intelligent transportation systems (ITS). This paper researches network-scale modeling and forecasting of short-term traffic flows. First, the concepts of single-link and multilink models of traffic flow forecasting are proposed. Secondly, four prediction models are constructed by combining the two models with single-task learning (STL) and multitask learning (MTL). The combination of the multilink model and multitask learning not only improves the experimental efficiency but also improves the prediction accuracy. Moreover, a new multilink, single-task approach that combines graphical lasso (GL) with neural network (NN) is proposed. GL provides a general methodology for solving problems involving lots of variables. Using L1 regularization, GL builds a sparse graphical model, making use of the sparse inverse covariance matrix. Gaussian process regression (GPR) is a classic regression algorithm in Bayesian machine learning. Although there is wide research on GPR, there are few applications of GPR in traffic flow forecasting. In this paper, GPR is applied to traffic flow forecasting, and its potential is shown. Through sufficient experiments, all of the proposed approaches are compared, and an overall assessment is made.