Traffic speed prediction under weekday using convolutional neural networks concepts

Accurate traffic prediction is crucial to alleviating traffic congestion in cities. Existing physical sensor-based traffic data acquisition methods have high transmission costs, serious traffic information redundancy, and large calculation volumes for spatiotemporal data processing, thus making it difficult to ensure accuracy and real-time traffic prediction. With the increasing resolution of UAV imagery, the use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) imagery to obtain traffic information has become a hot spot. Still, analyzing and predicting traffic status after extracting traffic information is neglected. We develop a framework for traffic speed extraction and prediction based on UAV imagery processing, which consists of two parts: a traffic information extraction module based on UAV imagery recognition and a traffic speed prediction module based on deep learning. First, we use deep learning methods to automate the extraction of road information, implement vehicle recognition using convolutional neural networks and calculate the average speed of road sections based on panchromatic and multispectral image matching to construct a traffic prediction dataset. Then, we propose an attention-enhanced traffic speed prediction module that considers the spatiotemporal characteristics of traffic data and increases the weights of key roads by extracting important fine-grained spatiotemporal features twice to improve the prediction accuracy of the target roads. Finally, we validate the effectiveness of the proposed method on real data. Compared with the baseline algorithm, our algorithm achieves the best prediction performance regarding accuracy and stability.

Many intelligent transportation systems (ITS) often rely on prediction of traffic variables in the near future to provide useful information for the users. Therefore, accurate traffic prediction is essential in the development of ITS. In this study, we are comparing prediction models for traffic speed and travel time on urban traffic network. We present three ways to build travel time predictors: by using recent travel time and speed of neighboring links, by using recent travel time of individual links, and by using speed predictors. Model-tree ensemble is implemented for both traffic speed and travel time predictions. Experimental result shows that the predictors perform better on travel time prediction than on traffic speed prediction. Among the three discussed travel time prediction methods and two baseline predictors, travel time prediction via speed predictors achieves best accuracy in all tested paths and prediction horizons.

Graph convolutional network – Long short term memory neural network- multi layer perceptron- Gaussian progress regression model: A new deep learning model for predicting ozone concertation

Traffic speed prediction in the urban road network is an important and promising task of intelligent transportation systems. Precise traffic speed prediction can mitigate traffic congestion and improve road network utilization. This task is challenging because of the complexity of the spatiotemporal dependency of traffic data among road network. Existing approaches mainly focus on the whole road network and it may capture much redundant information and lead to high computational cost. In this paper, we propose a Key Path-Based Deep Learning Approach: Path-Based CNN-1D + GRU + CNN-2D (P-CGC), a novel deep learning model for traffic speed prediction. Specifically, we use EST-matching algorithm to match the float car data into the road network. Then we select several key paths and build the model for the loop detectors which are in the same key path. We introduce CNN-1D, GRU to extract the temporal dependency of the data, where CNN-1D is used to fuse the contextual information, and GRU is used to capture the features of the temporal dimension. Then we concatenate the output of all CNN-1D+GRU models and use CNN-2D to capture the spatial dependency of the data. Finally, a fully connected neural network is used to transform features into the prediction. We conduct extensive experiments on Zhangzhou real-world datasets, and the proposed approach achieves a good result.

This research paper explores the hybrid models for Javanese character recognition using 15600 characters gathered from digital and handwritten sources. The hybrid model combines the merit of deep learning using convolutional neural networks (CNN) to involve feature extraction and a machine learning classifier using support vector machine (SVM). The dropout layer also manages overfitting problems and enhances training accuracy. For evaluation purposes, we also compared CNN models with three different architectures with multilayer perceptron (MLP) models with one and two hidden layer(s). In this research, we evaluated three variants of CNN architectures and the hybrid CNN-SVM models on both the accuracy of classification and training time. The experimental outcomes showed that the classification performances of all CNN models outperform the classification performances of both MLP models. The highest testing accuracy for basic CNN is 94.2% when using model 3 CNN. The increment of hidden layers to the MLP model just slightly enhances the accuracy. Furthermore, the hybrid model gained the highest accuracy result of 98.35% for classifying the testing data when combining model 3 CNN with the SVM classifier. We get that the hybrid CNN-SVM model can enhance the accuracy results in the Javanese characters recognition.

The increasing complexity of urban transportation systems and the growing volume of vehicles have made traffic congestion a persistent challenge in modern cities. Efficient traffic flow prediction is essential for mitigating congestion, improving road safety, optimizing traffic signal control, and enhancing overall transportation efficiency. In recent years, artificial intelligence (AI) has emerged as a transformative tool in the field of traffic management, offering sophisticated algorithms capable of modeling, analyzing, and predicting complex traffic patterns with high accuracy. The application of AI in traffic flow prediction leverages vast amounts of real-time and historical data to generate precise forecasts, supporting data-driven decision-making by urban planners and traffic control authorities. The prediction of traffic flow involves analyzing time-series data that exhibit nonlinear, dynamic, and often stochastic behavior. Traditional statistical models, such as autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), have proven to be limited in handling the high dimensionality and variability inherent in traffic systems. In contrast, AI algorithms possess the capacity to learn and adapt from complex data inputs without the need for explicit programming, making them particularly suitable for traffic-related applications. AI algorithms used in traffic flow prediction can be broadly categorized into machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) approaches. Machine learning algorithms such as k-nearest neighbors (KNN), support vector machines (SVM), decision trees, and random forests have demonstrated effectiveness in short-term traffic prediction tasks. These algorithms are capable of identifying hidden patterns in traffic data and adjusting to changes in traffic behavior over time. Ensemble methods, which combine the strengths of multiple learning models, further enhance prediction accuracy and robustness. Deep learning algorithms, a subfield of AI inspired by the human brain’s neural architecture, have shown exceptional performance in capturing spatial-temporal dependencies in traffic data. Recurrent neural networks (RNNs), particularly long short-term memory (LSTM) networks and gated recurrent units (GRUs), are widely used for their ability to process sequential data and retain information over extended time intervals. Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) are employed to extract spatial features from traffic sensor data or road network imagery. Hybrid models that integrate CNNs with RNNs have achieved high levels of predictive precision by simultaneously learning spatial and temporal correlations. In addition to supervised learning methods, unsupervised and reinforcement learning techniques are also applied in traffic flow prediction. Clustering algorithms, such as k-means and DBSCAN, assist in identifying traffic patterns, while reinforcement learning models optimize adaptive traffic signal control systems by learning optimal actions through environmental interaction. This study explores the different types of AI algorithms used in traffic flow prediction, examining their theoretical foundations, structural differences, and practical applications. It aims to evaluate the comparative advantages of various algorithms in addressing the challenges of real-time traffic prediction in increasingly complex transportation networks.

Traffic parameter forecasting is critical to effective traffic management but is a challenging task due to the stochasticity of traffic flow characteristics, especially in urban road networks. Traffic networks can be affected by external factors, such as weather, events, accidents, and road construction works. The impact of these factors can affect traffic flow parameters by influencing travel time, density, occupancy, and operating speed. Although deep neural networks (DNNs) have recently shown promising signs in traffic prediction using big data, there still exists the issue of maximizing the use of the model capabilities by using big data sources. This paper proposes an improved urban traffic speed prediction approach involving input-level data fusion and deep learning. Motivated by deep learning prediction methods, we propose a Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network (LSTM-NN) for traffic speed prediction that combines traffic and weather datasets on an urban road network in Greater Manchester, United Kingdom. The experimental results substantiate the value of the approach when compared to the use of traffic-only data sources for traffic speed prediction.

With the rapid development of intelligent transportation systems, vehicle detection and traffic flow statistics have become increasingly critical in traffic management and the construction of smart cities. However, complex weather conditions lead to challenges in vehicle detection algorithms, increasing false negatives and false positives. Additionally, the rapid growth of vehicle ownership makes traditional algorithms inadequate for meeting practical application needs. Therefore, this paper proposes a collaborative optimization-based method combining YOLOv11 for vehicle detection and traffic flow analysis under complex weather conditions. Vehicle information is accurately extracted through object detection and tracking methods, and further analyzed using Logistic Regression to assess traffic congestion. The main contributions of this study are: (1) Integration of the CBAM attention mechanism into YOLOv11, enhancing the vehicle feature extraction ability through collaborative channel and spatial attention, thereby improving interference resistance under complex weather conditions. (2) Adoption of the Shape-IoU loss function, with dynamic weight allocation to optimize the accuracy of detecting smaller vehicles and the precision of bounding box regression in images where vehicles are located at a greater distance. (3) Construction of a traffic congestion prediction model based on the detection results, integrated with Logistic Regression. The proposed method's effectiveness is validated on the public dataset UA-DETRAC. Through the synergistic effect of the CBAM attention mechanism and Shape-IoU loss function, the improved model's mAP50-95 shows a 0.3 percentage point increase over the YOLOv11 baseline, providing efficient and reliable technical support for intelligent transportation systems. This study enhances the prediction performance of traffic states under complex weather conditions by effectively calculating traffic flow parameters such as vehicle count and density, thus offering foundational data support for traffic management decision-making. The research conclusions are of practical significance for urban traffic improvement.

In metropolitan areas, common traffic issues include traffic congestion, traffic accidents, air pollution, and energy consumption occur. To resolve this issues, Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) have been evolved by many researchers. One of the important sub-systems in the development of ITS is a Traffic Management System (TMS) which attempts to reduce a traffic congestion. In fact, TMS itself relies on the estimation of traffic flow, therefore providing such an accurate traffic flow prediction is needed. For this reason, we aim to provide an accurate traffic flow prediction to facilitate this system. In this works, a Supervised Deep Learning Based Traffic Flow Prediction (SDLTFP) was proposed which is a type of fully-connected deep neural network (FC-DNN). Timely prediction is also a major issue in guaranteeing reliable traffic flow prediction. However, training a deep network could be time-consuming, and overfitting is might be happening, especially when feeding small data into the deep architecture. The network is learned perfectly during the training, but in testing with the new data, it could fail to generalize the model. We adopt the Batch Normalization (BN) and Dropout techniques to help the network training. SGD and momentum are carried out to update the weight. We then take advantage of open data as historical traffic data which are then used to predict future traffic flow with the proposed method and model above. Experiments show that the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) for our traffic flow prediction is within 5 % using sample data and between 15% to 20% using out of the sample data. Training a deep network faster with BN and Dropout reduces the overfitting.

Short-term traffic speed prediction has become one of the most important parts of intelligent transportation systems (ITSs). In recent years, deep learning methods have demonstrated their superiority both in accuracy and efficiency. However, most of them only consider the temporal information, overlooking the spatial or some environmental factors, especially the different correlations between the target road and the surrounding roads. This paper proposes a traffic speed prediction approach based on temporal clustering and hierarchical attention (TCHA) to address the above issues. We apply temporal clustering to the target road to distinguish the traffic environment. Traffic data in each cluster have a similar distribution, which can help improve the prediction accuracy. A hierarchical attention-based mechanism is then used to extract the features at each time step. The encoder measures the importance of spatial features, and the decoder measures the temporal ones. The proposed method is evaluated over the data of a certain area in Hangzhou, and experiments have shown that this method can outperform the state of the art for traffic speed prediction.

Accurate traffic flow prediction is essential for the effective management of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS). However, traditional methods based on static graph structures often fail to address the complex and nonlinear spatiotemporal dependencies in evolving traffic conditions. To address this challenge, we propose a Dynamic Graph Convolutional Recurrent Network with Temporal Self‐Attention (DGCRN‐TSA), which integrates a temporal attention mechanism to jointly capture dynamic spatial topologies and long‐range temporal patterns. The model incorporates a graph generation module that adaptively learns time‐varying adjacency matrices from traffic signals and introduces a trend‐aware attention module enhanced by residual‐guided decomposition for distinguishing between normal and anomalous traffic behaviours. Experiments on real traffic datasets confirm that DGCRN‐TSA achieves superior performance in both short‐ and medium‐to‐long‐term forecasts. Notably, it reduces MAE by 19.4% on PeMS04 and improves MAPE by 12.2% on PeMS08. The model also ensures high prediction accuracy with strong computational efficiency and an inference speed comparable to AGCRN. DGCRN‐TSA offers an efficient and reliable solution for dynamic spatiotemporal modelling and large‐scale real‐time traffic prediction.

Traffic flow prediction using spatial-temporal network data remains one of the most important problems in intelligent transportation systems. Timely and accurate traffic prediction is necessary to provide valuable information for different urban planning, traffic control, and guidance tasks. The complexity of the problem is explained by the fact that traffic flows have high nonlinearity and complex spatial-temporal correlations. The development of mathematical models, and, in particular, the deep learning models, allows to use convolutional neural networks to solve traffic prediction problems. In this article, we analyze the architecture of the graph convolution network for traffic flow prediction. The considered graph convolution network takes into account daily and weekly patterns of traffic flow distributions. Experimental studies of the graph neural network model were carried out on the transportation network of Samara city. Experiments show that the considered model outperforms other baseline forecasting algorithms.

Traffic speed prediction is an emerging paradigm for achieving a better transportation system in smart cities and improving the heavy traffic management in the intelligent transportation system (ITS). The accurate traffic speed prediction is affected by many contextual factors such as abnormal traffic conditions, traffic incidents, lane closures due to construction or events, and traffic congestion. To overcome these problems, we propose a new method named fuzzy optimized long short‐term memory (FOLSTM) neural network for long‐term traffic speed prediction. FOLSTM technique is a hybrid method composed of computational intelligence (CI), machine learning (ML), and metaheuristic techniques, capable of predicting the speed for macroscopic traffic key parameters. First, the proposed hybrid unsupervised learning method, agglomerated hierarchical K‐means (AHK) clustering, divides the input samples into a group of clusters. Second, based on parameters the Gaussian bell‐shaped fuzzy membership function calculates the degree of membership (high, low, and medium) for each cluster using Takagi‐Sugeno fuzzy rules. Finally, the whale optimization algorithm (WOA) is used in LSTM to optimize the parameters obtained by fuzzy rules and calculate the optimal weight value. FOLSTM evaluates the accurate traffic speed from the abnormal traffic data to overcome the nonlinear characteristics. Experimental results demonstrated that our proposed method outperforms the state‐of‐the‐art approaches in terms of metrics such as mean square error (MSE), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).

Traffic prediction is a fundamental operation in real-time traffic analysis. A precise prediction of traffic condition can benefit both road users and traffic management agencies. However, since road traffic is decided by multiple static and dynamic factors, traffic prediction is still a challenging task. As the core indicator of traffic condition, many works focus on traffic speed prediction using time-series forecasting approaches. Although current methods take into account the static road topology while modelling, they fail to consider (1) the semantic closeness between road components and (2) congestion caused by upstream/downstream traffic propagation. In this paper, we introduce a Spatial-Temporal Dynamic Graph Network using JS-Graph, which considers both static road features and dynamic traffic flows when forecasting. Specifically, we first propose a data-driven ‘JS-Graph’ method that describes the semantic similarity between road nodes. It models the complex spatial correlations that cannot be captured by the traditional spatial adjacency graph. Secondly, we design a dynamic graph attention network that considers the traffic dynamics that happened in previous time slices when predicting the current one to capture the congestion propagation phenomena. Extensive experiments conducted on real-world datasets show that our proposed method is significantly better than baselines. KeywordsGraph neural networkSpatial-temporal data analysisTime series forecast

Aim. Threats of a non-physical nature have a significant effect on the security of intelligent transportation systems (ITS). They may have the form of unlawful interference in the development and implementation of ITS. The creation of a trusted framework for the development and implementation of ITS is examined as in the case of intelligent water transportation systems (IWTS). Problems. By decree of the President of the Russian Federation, ITS, telecommunications and security of information processing are among the priority areas of scientific and technological development. ITS technologies, as well as those involved in the creation of trusted, secure system and application software are among the most important critical high technologies. The operation of ITS involves wide use of computerised systems that implement the latest information and telecommunication technologies, automated and automatic control technologies, artificial intelligence that can pose security threats. ITS are to be developed and operated in a trusted environment. Methods. The paper used the methodology for ensuring the security of IWTS, development of secure hardware and software platforms for secure automated systems, methods of system analysis, dependability theory, information protection, and law. Results. The paper defines the problem of creating a trusted framework for the development and implementation of IWTS, the applicable terminology is developed. The author examined the effect of IWTS on the security of critical information infrastructure (CII) and national security, developed a model of relationships between the IWTS security domains taking into account threats of physical and non-physical origin. Examples of computer incidents within IWTS that caused consequences at the national and international levels are given. The composition of the IWTS facilities attributed to CII is defined, critical processes implemented by standard CII facilities as part of the IWTS are set forth. The author lists conceptual problems of IWTS security, defines the principles of creating a trusted framework for the development and implementation of IWTS. Conclusion. Ensuring the security of IWTS against modern threats requires solving a number of problems associated with the creation of a trusted framework for the development and implementation of IWTS. For the purpose of improving the timeliness and quality of their solution, the paper proposes an intuitive terminology that reflects the subject area and helps finding a common understanding of the security domain by experts from various industries. IWTS facilities have an effect on CII security and national security in general. That is taken into account in the model of relationships between IWTS security domains, demonstrated using cases of computer incidents within IWTS that caused consequences at the national and international level. Given the above, the paper lists IWTS facilities attributed to CII and sets forth examples of critical processes implemented by standard CII facilities as part of the IWTS. The defined list of conceptual IWTS security problems take into account the growing landscape of IWTS security threats that includes insecure software, hardware and software platforms, software and hardware systems and emerging technologies. When developing the principles for the creation of a trusted IWTS development and implementation framework, the author took into account the best practice of implementing the methodology for creating national secure hardware and software platforms of CII facilities that enables the creation of secure automated systems for various applications that are based on domestically-developed solutions. The examined matters are of a systemic nature, which allows using the findings in the development and implementation of ITS in other modes of transportation.